#Gold #SP500
When a share or commodity appears to get out of control, it’s usually worth taking several steps back and reviewing the Big Picture. Often, it can be stunning how quickly “confused” becomes “understood”. For #Brent, we’ve presented a 15 year chart below and, as can be immediately seen, the visual results are utterly useless!
About the only sane result comes from the fact the recent high in the 130’s rather neatly matched the plateau from 2009 through to 2013, suggesting some sort of glass ceiling exists, a natural high the commodity is experiencing difficulty exceeding. The situation currently is pretty straightforward. Our calculations suggest above $130 should make an attempt at $152 next. If triggered, apparently such a movement shouldn’t even need a clever stop loss as the chart to this hypothetical 152 should prove relentless.
However, the Big Picture is utterly failing in its duty to provide an overall clue as to direction. Unfortunately, about the only path to sanity comes from the inset on the chart, Brent movements during the last three months.
If we take a deep breath and choose to break down what’s been happening;
- Brent peaked in early March, almost reaching $140 (briefly) but failed to close the session above $128.
- Subsequent rises have failed to trouble this initial high, instead describing a pattern of “lower highs” until this weeks surprise visit to $115.
- Equally, when we review the pattern of ‘lows’, instead of constant ‘lower lows’, we see the lows getting very slightly higher. This behaviour goes against conventional wisdom as where we’d expect to see confidence weakening, instead there’s an insidious suggestion of strength building.
- Finding ourselves in a situation where the Highs are not getting Higher and the Lows are not getting Lower, about the only safe conclusion we can draw is one, where it appears the market itself doesn’t have a clue what to do, instead choosing to maintain Brent Crude in some sort of holding pattern.
Quite absurdly, we’re supposed to believe this is all the fault of Russia/Ukraine while ignoring the reality of Brent moving from the $20 level to $98 before the war started. It was ‘simply’ the case of demand growing for oil, due to the pandemic easing, and the critical balance between supply, storage, and demand getting out of kilter for a while. As a result, it appears any perceived resolution of the Ukraine conflict can be expected to provoke some sharp reversals in the price of crude.
For Brent, we’re inclined to regard $101 as a trigger level as movement currently below such a level should prove capable of sharp reversal to an initial $82. Should such a level break, our secondary works out at $65 and a very possible bounce level, when the product matches its pre-pandemic price.
For now, like the wider market, we’re not seeing any comfortable clues as to direction but, if we take an “if it were a share” stance, we’d tend anticipate $82 making a surprise appearance sometime soon.
FUTURES
| Time Issued | Market | Price At Issue | Short Entry | Fast Exit | Slow Exit | Stop | Long Entry | Fast Exit | Slow Exit | Stop | Prior |
| 9:57:47PM | BRENT | 107.9 | Success | ||||||||
| 9:59:23PM | GOLD | 1816.86 | 1807 | 1800 | 1788 | 1817 | 1826 | 1828 | 1835 | 1815 | |
| 10:01:31PM | FTSE | 7388.5 | Success | ||||||||
| 10:03:48PM | FRANCE | 6294.4 | Success | ||||||||
| 10:06:11PM | GERMANY | 13858 | Success | ||||||||
| 10:08:31PM | US500 | 3917.62 | 3905 | 3888 | 3868 | 3932 | 3958 | 3978 | 4002 | 3920 | Success |
| 10:12:20PM | DOW | 31433 | Success | ||||||||
| 10:15:11PM | NASDAQ | 11894 | Success | ||||||||
| 10:18:33PM | JAPAN | 26268 | Success |
18/05/2022 FTSE Closed at 7438 points. Change of -1.06%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,006,146,182 a change of 17.44%
17/05/2022 FTSE Closed at 7518 points. Change of 0.72%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,965,741,785 a change of -1.9%
16/05/2022 FTSE Closed at 7464 points. Change of 0.62%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,081,329,244 a change of -11.87%
13/05/2022 FTSE Closed at 7418 points. Change of 2.56%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,900,608,037 a change of -14.47%
12/05/2022 FTSE Closed at 7233 points. Change of -1.55%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,068,175,968 a change of -13.29%
11/05/2022 FTSE Closed at 7347 points. Change of 1.44%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,304,334,633 a change of 45.01%
10/05/2022 FTSE Closed at 7243 points. Change of 0.37%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,416,543,760 a change of 2.54%
SUCCESS above means both FAST & SLOW targets were met. ‘CESS means just the FAST target met and probably the next time it is exceeded, movement to the SLOW target shall commence.
Our commentary is in two sections. Immediately below are today’s updated comments. If our commentary remains valid, the share can be found in the bottom section which has a RED heading. Hopefully, this will mean you no longer need to flip back through previous reports. HYPERLINKS DISABLED IN THIS VERSION
Please remember, all prices are mid-price (halfway between the Buy and Sell). When we refer to a price CLOSING above a specific level, we are viewing the point where we can regard a trend as changing. Otherwise, we are simply speculating on near term trading targets. Our website is www.trendsandtargets.com.
UPDATE. We often give an initial and a secondary price. If the initial is exceeded, we still expect it to fall back but the next time the initial is bettered, the price should continue to the secondary. The converse it true with price drops.
We can be contacted at info@trendsandtargets.com. Spam filters set to maximum so only legit emails get through…
Section One – Outlook Updated Today. Click here for Section Two – Outlook Remains Valid shares
Click Epic to jump to share: LSE:AV. Aviva** **LSE:CBX Cellular Goods** **LSE:CNA Centrica** **LSE:DARK Darktrace Plc** **LSE:EXPN Experian** **LSE:NG. National Glib** **LSE:SPX Spirax** **LSE:TERN Tern Plc** **
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Updated charts published on : Aviva, Cellular Goods, Centrica, Darktrace Plc, Experian, National Glib, Spirax, Tern Plc,
LSE:AV. Aviva. Close Mid-Price: 414 Percentage Change: + 2.06% Day High: 420.25 Day Low: 407.5
Further movement against Aviva ABOVE 420.25 should improve acceleration t ……..
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View Previous Aviva & Big Picture ***
LSE:CBX Cellular Goods Close Mid-Price: 1.75 Percentage Change: -5.41% Day High: 1.85 Day Low: 1.75
Target met. Continued weakness against CBX taking the price below 1.75 ca ……..
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View Previous Cellular Goods & Big Picture ***
LSE:CNA Centrica. Close Mid-Price: 87.86 Percentage Change: + 3.93% Day High: 88.02 Day Low: 84.74
Target met. Continued trades against CNA with a mid-price ABOVE 88.02 sho ……..
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View Previous Centrica & Big Picture ***
LSE:DARK Darktrace Plc Close Mid-Price: 323.2 Percentage Change: -15.17% Day High: 379.9 Day Low: 319.8
Target met. Continued weakness against DARK taking the price below 319.8 ……..
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View Previous Darktrace Plc & Big Picture ***
LSE:EXPN Experian Close Mid-Price: 2519 Percentage Change: -5.62% Day High: 2613 Day Low: 2468
Target met. Continued weakness against EXPN taking the price below 2468 c ……..
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View Previous Experian & Big Picture ***
LSE:NG. National Glib. Close Mid-Price: 1245.5 Percentage Change: + 0.69% Day High: 1266 Day Low: 1231
Target met. Further movement against National Glib ABOVE 1266 should impr ……..
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View Previous National Glib & Big Picture ***
LSE:SPX Spirax Close Mid-Price: 10470 Percentage Change: -4.43% Day High: 11030 Day Low: 10495
Target met. Continued weakness against SPX taking the price below 10495 c ……..
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View Previous Spirax & Big Picture ***
LSE:TERN Tern Plc. Close Mid-Price: 13 Percentage Change: + 0.00% Day High: 13 Day Low: 12.75
Tern continues to fail to have a good time but now above 15p should bring ……..
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View Previous Tern Plc & Big Picture ***