FTSE for FRIDAY and the price of wood! (FTSE:UKX) “What’s that got to do with the price of fish?” is one of these trite sayings which makes absolutely no sense, almost like a sentence which uses words such as ‘politician’ and ‘integrity’. However, an experience visiting a local timber merchant brought a new sentence to the table; “and what about the price of wood?”
We fear this frivolous detail may become important to the stock market, perhaps the wider economy. The problem is pretty basic. Wood has gotten seriously expensive, tripling in price during the last few months. On the ‘To Do’ list for 2021 was ‘Build A Replacement Shed’, the existing one looking like it shall refuse to remain standing, when the autumn gales come. Hot weather legislated against tackling the job as woodwork is essentially a hobby and supposed to be enjoyable. As the weather has cooled, this week has been spent removing the contents of the existing shed, taking a guilty amount to the local dump, and ensuring everything else will remain dry while the shed is demolished.
As it was time to finally order components for the replacement shed, a shock awaiting at the counter of the timber shop. We’d worked out ball park costs earlier in the year, when deciding whether to buy a complete shed kit or to build one from scratch. Building from scratch (more fun anyway) was roughly 1/3 the cost of a kit, so was expecting to pay around £250 for materials. The first shock was the cost of cladding for the sides of the new shed. The material, generally a really cheap type of wood, was going to cost £740. The rough wood, for the frame, worked out at £170, and the flooring panels added a further £90 to the job.
The bloke behind the counter agreed with our reaction, explaining shortages had forced prices skyward. We were not the first customers to turn away in horror at the price changes, something seriously effecting his sales.
If we zoom out and regard this from a bigger picture stance, timber is such a basic building material and the need to re-cost future works must be giving problems. A call to a chum confirmed the issue, his company supplies and fits kitchens. Sales have declined to the extent he’s opting to close this part of his company. From our standpoint, we were able to make a quick decision. We ordered a steel shed for just under 500 quid! But the soaring price of timber must surely force pain on the price of virtually every part of the building trade. What did surprise, apparently timber prices in Europe are fairly static. This price thing is being blamed on Brexit.
The point behind this diatribe is an unpleasant suspicion a reality bomb is going to hit the UK markets in months to come.
As for the FTSE for Friday, the immediate drop (blamed on publication of Minutes from a US Federal Reserve meeting) produced a pretty vile Thursday and we suspect the story isn’t yet over. At present, the FTSE needs climb above 7100 points to convince us weakness below 7020 points shall probably trigger reversal to an initial 6955 points next. If broken, our secondary calculates at 6722 points and hopefully a proper bounce, should it be achieved.
Should the FTSE manage to clamber above 7100, some slight gains appear possible toward an initial 7125 points. If bettered, our secondary works out at a more useful 7160 points. The important aspect to this secondary ambition comes from the Blue downtrend on the chart, the line which dates to the days before the pandemic hit the fan. Conventionally, regaining such an important trend will prove critical as strong recovery usually follows.
Once again, we end the week with the classic “It’s Fingers Crossed Time For The FTSE!”.
Have a good weekend.
Trends and Targets. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
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FUTURES
| Time Issued | Market | Price At Issue | Short Entry | Fast Exit | Slow Exit | Stop | Long Entry | Fast Exit | Slow Exit | Stop | Prior |
| 10:05:34PM | BRENT | 66.26 | 65.22 | 64.4 | 66.49 | 67.24 | 67.505 | 66.22 | Success | ||
| 10:07:39PM | GOLD | 1780.22 | 1774 | 1769.5 | 1782 | 1784 | 1786.5 | 1779 | ‘cess | ||
| 10:11:19PM | FTSE | 7079.5 | 7036 | 7012 | 7090 | 7107 | 7140.5 | 7048 | Success | ||
| 10:13:55PM | FRANCE | 6619.7 | 6558 | 6525 | 6637 | 6659 | 6678 | 6596 | Success | ||
| 10:15:58PM | GERMANY | 15806 | 15622 | 15531.5 | 15728 | 15824 | 15875.5 | 15724 | Success | ||
| 10:22:37PM | US500 | 4408.62 | 4355 | 4323 | 4400 | 4419 | 4431 | 4382 | Success | ||
| 10:24:46PM | DOW | 34910 | 34563 | 34426 | 34777 | 35009 | 35125.5 | 34697 | Shambles | ||
| 10:28:24PM | NASDAQ | 14949 | 14714 | 14608.5 | 14842 | 14986 | 15022 | 14886 | ‘cess | ||
| 10:30:34PM | JAPAN | 27257 | 26951 | 26855 | 27155 | 27432 | 27495.5 | 27264 | Success |
19/08/2021 FTSE Closed at 7058 points. Change of -1.55%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,951,507,181 a change of -2.94%
18/08/2021 FTSE Closed at 7169 points. Change of -0.17%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,101,308,767 a change of 1.33%
17/08/2021 FTSE Closed at 7181 points. Change of 0.39%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,034,493,544 a change of 2.47%
16/08/2021 FTSE Closed at 7153 points. Change of -0.9%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,913,032,412 a change of 23.5%
13/08/2021 FTSE Closed at 7218 points. Change of 0.35%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,978,009,773 a change of -26.52%
12/08/2021 FTSE Closed at 7193 points. Change of -0.37%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,413,411,006 a change of 4.45%
11/08/2021 FTSE Closed at 7220 points. Change of 0.96%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,182,803,131 a change of -6.82%
SUCCESS above means both FAST & SLOW targets were met. ‘CESS means just the FAST target met and probably the next time it is exceeded, movement to the SLOW target shall commence.
Our commentary is in two sections. Immediately below are today’s updated comments. If our commentary remains valid, the share can be found in the bottom section which has a RED heading. Hopefully, this will mean you no longer need to flip back through previous reports. HYPERLINKS DISABLED IN THIS VERSION
Please remember, all prices are mid-price (halfway between the Buy and Sell). When we refer to a price CLOSING above a specific level, we are viewing the point where we can regard a trend as changing. Otherwise, we are simply speculating on near term trading targets. Our website is www.trendsandtargets.com.
UPDATE. We often give an initial and a secondary price. If the initial is exceeded, we still expect it to fall back but the next time the initial is bettered, the price should continue to the secondary. The converse it true with price drops.
We can be contacted at info@trendsandtargets.com. Spam filters set to maximum so only legit emails get through…
Section One – Outlook Updated Today. Click here for Section Two – Outlook Remains Valid shares
Click Epic to jump to share: LSE:BDEV Barrett Devs** **LSE:CPI Capita** **LSE:GKP Gulf Keystone** **LSE:IGG IG Group** **LSE:IHG Intercontinental Hotels Group** **LSE:ITM ITM Power** **LSE:NG. National Glib** **LSE:PMG Parkmead** **LSE:RMG Royal Mail** **LSE:TLW Tullow** **
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Updated charts published on : Barrett Devs, Capita, Gulf Keystone, IG Group, Intercontinental Hotels Group, ITM Power, National Glib, Parkmead, Royal Mail, Tullow,
LSE:BDEV Barrett Devs Close Mid-Price: 711.2 Percentage Change: -1.50% Day High: 720.2 Day Low: 708.6
The lack of attempts to head upward are a worry, suggesting weakness next ……..
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View Previous Barrett Devs & Big Picture ***
LSE:CPI Capita. Close Mid-Price: 50.44 Percentage Change: + 1.24% Day High: 50.68 Day Low: 48.57
Continued trades against CPI with a mid-price ABOVE 50.68 should improve ……..
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View Previous Capita & Big Picture ***
LSE:GKP Gulf Keystone Close Mid-Price: 146.2 Percentage Change: -4.57% Day High: 150.8 Day Low: 145.2
If Gulf Keystone experiences continued weakness below 145.2, it will inva ……..
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View Previous Gulf Keystone & Big Picture ***
LSE:IGG IG Group Close Mid-Price: 929.5 Percentage Change: -0.32% Day High: 934.5 Day Low: 924.5
Target met. Further movement against IG Group ABOVE 934.5 should improve ……..
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View Previous IG Group & Big Picture ***
LSE:IHG Intercontinental Hotels Group Close Mid-Price: 4475 Percentage Change: -0.82% Day High: 4497 Day Low: 4389
Continued weakness against IHG taking the price below 4389 calculates as ……..
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View Previous Intercontinental Hotels Group & Big Picture ***
LSE:ITM ITM Power. Close Mid-Price: 462 Percentage Change: + 4.86% Day High: 463.2 Day Low: 426.6
Further movement against ITM Power ABOVE 463.2 should improve acceleratio ……..
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View Previous ITM Power & Big Picture ***
LSE:NG. National Glib. Close Mid-Price: 978.3 Percentage Change: + 0.98% Day High: 979.5 Day Low: 967.5
Continued trades against NG. with a mid-price ABOVE 979.5 should improve ……..
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View Previous National Glib & Big Picture ***
LSE:PMG Parkmead Close Mid-Price: 43.65 Percentage Change: -7.13% Day High: 44.5 Day Low: 42
If Parkmead experiences continued weakness below 42, it will invariably l ……..
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View Previous Parkmead & Big Picture ***
LSE:RMG Royal Mail Close Mid-Price: 489.2 Percentage Change: -1.47% Day High: 494.2 Day Low: 481.4
Target met. Continued weakness against RMG taking the price below 481.4 c ……..
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View Previous Royal Mail & Big Picture ***
LSE:TLW Tullow Close Mid-Price: 42.02 Percentage Change: -5.04% Day High: 43.89 Day Low: 40.76
Weakness on Tullow below 40.76 will invariably lead to 37 with secondary ……..
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View Previous Tullow & Big Picture ***