#BrentCrude #Nasdaq Midway through November, America almost has a new President, Covid-19 is nearly cured, the UK PM is being locked away for a few weeks, and ‘I’m A Celebrity’ is back on TV! Could we be approaching the end of 2020 with a plethora of positive vibes forcing itself upon us. Our previous glance at Lloyds (link) certainly proved correct with our secondary target level being exceeded.
As a result, we’re using this weeks visit to a retail bank as a “what if” scenario, as in “what if” the good news keeps coming, ideally with “I’m A Nonentity” being cancelled. In this particular household, the theme music is sufficient to remind the dogs need walked immediately, the car needs washed, or even can the grass be cut in darkness while it’s raining, while wishing the mower was electric. As can be guessed, the half of the household clutching the TV box remote believes the rubbish from a Welsh castle is essential viewing.
Kidding aside, Lloyds Banking Group are very nearly at the point of justifying some real optimism for the longer term. The immediate situation suggests ongoing travel beyond 35.09p should head up to 38p and at this level, life starts to become very interesting. The share price will require closure above 38p to confirm 2020’s visual Glass Ceiling has broken, allowing further recovery in the direction of a future 50p with secondary, if bettered, being the subject of considerable debate in-house.
If we go by software criteria alone, the secondary should be presented as 92p. This is due the share price finally closing above Blue on the chart, a downtrend dating back to 2007. In normal times, we tend expect rates of recovery acceleration to be influenced by the levels at which such a downtrend commenced. In the case of Lloyds, the implication is quite suspect above 6 quid. Obviously, times are not normal and if we opt to balance expectations with share price behaviour during 2020, our secondary target level calculates at a sane looking 61p.
The surprising visual detail from such a secondary ambition is 61p is virtually a pivot level, a share price above and below the bank has been cavorting for the last ten years. As a result, an ambition of 61p makes a lot of sense and should such miracle recovery appear, common sense alone demands we revisit our numbers to project where a proper long term target may reside. For the sake of providing a ‘clickbait’ teaser, it’s already possible to calculate some amazing potentials with 156p allegedly viable in the distance, along with proof Santa Claus is real.
A word of warning. Lloyds needs only sink below 30p to turn this Big Picture scenario into mush as a future retreat below the Blue trend line would be a really bad thing.
FUTURES
| Time Issued | Market | Price At Issue | Short Entry | Fast Exit | Slow Exit | Stop | Long Entry | Fast Exit | Slow Exit | Stop | Prior |
| 1:44:47PM | BRENT | 42.8 | 42.68 | 42.445 | 41.47 | 43.43 | 43.63 | 43.835 | 44.22 | 42.74 | ‘cess |
| 1:46:55PM | GOLD | 1890.12 | |||||||||
| 1:55:17PM | FTSE | 6340 | |||||||||
| 1:59:20PM | FRANCE | 5406 | Success | ||||||||
| 2:02:06PM | GERMANY | 13120 | Success | ||||||||
| 2:04:54PM | US500 | 3585.92 | |||||||||
| 2:07:06PM | DOW | 29488 | ‘cess | ||||||||
| 2:09:09PM | NASDAQ | 11950 | 11810 | 11750.5 | 11684 | 11886 | 11951 | 12141 | 12348 | 11817 | |
| 2:11:48PM | JAPAN | 25610 | ‘cess |