#FTSE #Gold Clever joke at end of report but for now, it’s worth zooming out and remembering the big picture when reviewing something. The UK market has a couple of especially interesting items of note, not least being the Blue ruling downtrend. When we extrapolate this particular trend since 20th January, the chart indicates the market needs exceed 5975 presently to give the first solid indication the Covid-19 panic is perhaps over.
Visually, the market does need require a great deal of work to escape this mess. But we’re a little concerned due to a movement which happened in the last day, one which felt fairly threatening. With the FTSE hitting 5716 on Thursday, the index broke below a fairly established glass floor of 5771 points. Despite the market recovering, we’re inclined to treat this as a warning sign and suspect any further weakness below 5771 points risks a reversal cycle starting toward 5280 points. In itself, this is fairly alarming but the largest reason for outright panic comes, should 5280 break.
A calamity such as this risks opening the floodgates from further reversals with a bottom, hopefully, now calculating at 3922 points. Almost amusingly, such a bottom target tends match the uptrend drawn from the Tech crash of 2003, through the Bank crash of 2009. Should such a number appear, we’d certainly hope for some sort of rebound as the implications below such a level dare not yet be examined due to the need to use words like ‘headless & chicken’.
As for our extremely popular FTSE for FRIDAY, we suspect the opening gambit on Thursday with a plunge to 5716 shall prove to be a ‘fake’, one of these market manoeuvres designed to trigger a load of short positions, only to have stop loss levels met later in the day. We’ll be fairly convinced of this, should the UK index exceed 5820 points as this looks like triggering recovery toward an initial 5865 points with our longer term secondary (or later that day!) calculating at 5916 points. If triggered, the very tightest stop is at 5757 points but visually, we prefer 5745 points.
The alternate scenario comes, should the index wander below 5745 points as it risks reversal to an initial 5692 with secondary, if broken, down at 5620 and hopefully some sort of bounce.
Finally, a joke which made us laugh out loud;
A man who just died is delivered to a local undertaker wearing an expensive, expertly tailored, black suit.
The undertaker asks the deceased’s wife how she would like the body dressed. He points out that the man does look good in the black suit he is already wearing.
The widow, however, says that she always thought her husband looked his best in blue, and that she wants him in a blue suit. She gives the mortician a blank cheque and says, “I don’t care what it costs, but please have my husband in a blue suit for the viewing.”
The woman returns the next day for the wake. To her delight, she finds her husband dressed in a gorgeous blue suit with a subtle chalk stripe; the suit fits him perfectly.
She says to the mortician, “Whatever this cost, I’m very satisfied. You did an excellent job and I’m very grateful. How much did you spend?” To her astonishment, the mortician presents her with the blank cheque. “There’s no charge” she says. “No, really, I must compensate you for the cost of that exquisite blue suit!” she says.
“Honestly, ma’am,” the undertaker says, “it cost nothing. You see, a deceased gentleman of about your husband’s size was brought in shortly after you left yesterday, and he was wearing an attractive blue suit. I asked his wife if she minded him going to his grave wearing a black suit instead, and she said it made no difference as long as he looked nice.”
“So I just switched the heads.”
Have a good weekend.
FUTURES
| Time Issued | Market | Price At Issue | Short Entry | Fast Exit | Slow Exit | Stop | Long Entry | Fast Exit | Slow Exit | Stop | Prior |
| 10:49:38PM | BRENT | 42.72 | 41.98 | 41.585 | 42.68 | 43.04 | 43.255 | 42.52 | Success | ||
| 10:51:09PM | GOLD | 1904.34 | 1899 | 1891.5 | 1909 | 1909 | 1912 | 1899 | Success | ||
| 11:00:49PM | FTSE | 5807.72 | 5742 | 5730 | 5797 | 5812 | 5830.5 | 5760 | ‘cess | ||
| 11:05:39PM | FRANCE | 4863 | 4810 | 4795.5 | 4858 | 4898 | 4904 | 4846 | ‘cess | ||
| 11:17:59PM | GERMANY | 12618 | 12442 | 12378 | 12564 | 12614 | 12676.5 | 12525 | Success | ||
| 11:20:59PM | US500 | 3461.72 | 3409 | 3389 | 3435 | 3470 | 3478 | 3442 | Sorry | ||
| 11:28:31PM | DOW | 28424 | 28241 | 28200 | 28380 | 28440 | 28495 | 28280 | Success | ||
| 11:30:17PM | NASDAQ | 11688 | 11611 | 11601.5 | 11668 | 11722 | 11771 | 11611 | ‘cess | ||
| 11:32:13PM | JAPAN | 23570 | 23522 | 23492.5 | 23555 | 23590 | 23608.5 | 23523 | Success |
