FTSE for FRIDAY & GBPUSD for 25/09/2020

#FTSE #GBPUSD It’s easy to think of Sterling’s woes as being a Brexit thing or a Covid thing but the harsh reality of the decline in the pounds strength dates back to 2007 and the start of the financial crash. The chart below spells out this drama with painful clarity, GBPUSD failed to recover from the crash, steadily edging lower in the period since.

We’ve been predicting parity (or worse) for this pair, quite literally for years. The market has proven fairly rigid with its 13 year Blue downtrend with a simple glance indicating the relationship requires exceed 1.34 at present to suggest something game changing is happening. Needless to say, we’ve our own collection of mumbo jumbo reasons to distrust something as obvious as a trend line. Instead, we can calculate GBPUSD needs above 1.39 to cancel the chances of parity making an appearance eventually. In such a miraculous event, we can point to recovery to 1.53 initially with secondary, if exceeded, an amazing sounding 1.71. The surprising thing about the secondary calculation is it’s quite pleasing visually, matching a peak level from 2014 and suggesting a glass ceiling awaits.

Unfortunately, we’re not terribly optimistic, entirely due to the long term threat of parity.

We feel it more likely this relationship shall founder below 1.21, triggering sharp reversal to an initial 1.11 and taking the pair into a zone where our secondary longer term calculation works out at 1.01 and hopefully “bottom”.

Hey, chart goes here

FTSE for Friday (FTSE:UKX) The market did not complete Thursday in a happy place, making us fear Friday shall produce some continued FTSE misery. Weakness next below 5803 points (but don’t trust a spike down at the open) suggests reversals coming toward an initial 5757 points. If broken, our longer term (or later that day) secondary calculates at 5683 points! If triggered, the tightest stop is relatively sane at 5867 points. In fact, the risk/reward ratio is such we’re starting to wonder if a negative day shall occur.

The converse scenario comes, should the FTSE manage to stagger above 5867 points as this carries the potential of recovery to a useless 5886 points. If exceeded, our secondary works out at 5938 points, taking the UK market into a region where optimism can easily provide a 3rd target level at 5980 points.

Hey, chart goes here

 

FUTURES

Time Issued Market Price At Issue Short Entry Fast Exit Slow Exit Stop Long Entry Fast Exit Slow Exit Stop Prior
9:03:40PM BRENT 42.25 41.65 41.31 42.47 43 43.185 42
9:27:02PM GOLD 1870 1848 1844 1877 1877 1881 1853
9:56:05PM FTSE 5846 5801 5766 5867 5893 5913 5833 ‘cess
9:59:34PM FRANCE 4771.2 4743 4707.5 4800 4807 4824 4762
10:02:06PM GERMANY 12645 12513 12462.5 12649 12667 12714 12604
10:04:20PM US500 3252.02 3209 3195 3255 3267 3280 3239 Success
10:09:05PM DOW 26865 26539 26412 26881 27102 27170 26805 ‘cess
10:21:54PM NASDAQ 10932 10787 10746 10955 11036 11103.5 10822 ‘cess
10:24:21PM JAPAN 23147 23066 22980 23173 23180 23251.5 23070 Success

 

24/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5822 points. Change of -1.31%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,769,890,114 a change of 0.59%
23/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5899 points. Change of 1.2%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,741,814,629 a change of -1.55%
22/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5829 points. Change of 0.43%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,816,339,128 a change of -8.93%
21/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5804 points. Change of -3.38%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,288,811,181 a change of -43.99%
18/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6007 points. Change of -0.69%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,442,217,884 a change of 120.95%
17/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6049 points. Change of -0.48%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,273,425,233 a change of -23.19%
16/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6078 points. Change of -0.44%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,563,460,983 a change of 15%

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