FTSE Big Picture (again!) 27/04/2020

#Brent #Dax #FTSE Weekends are always a great time to be miserable! Financial commentators appear equally split, one camp prophesying strong recovery from the recent lows, the other camp insisting the recent bounce has been false optimism and we’re all doomed. To be honest, if we rely on the numbers, we’re in the “doomed” camp, thanks to the FTSE triggering potentially serious drops.

 

Our “if it were a share” thinking demands we view the index as heading to 3,990 points or so. However, during April, the FTSE has blundered around within a 400 point trading range, one which calculates with a fairly straightforward trigger level.

What if the FTSE exceeds a trigger at 5,940 points?

We’re now supposed to witness recovery to an initial 6,098 points with secondary, if exceeded, calculating at 6,501 points. These numbers are pretty amazing, the secondary driving the FTSE into a region where a “what was all the fuss about” 7,550 points shall be viewed as exerting a Big Picture attraction.

 

Who knows, everything could change when St Boris returns to work, waves a magic wand, returns the UK to an even keel. Of course, perhaps the Financial Times shall successfully rock the boat. Their continuing protestation now claims 45,000 MORE death certificates issued than normal for this time of year… If this is the case, St Boris is going to forced to answer questions regarding Govt figures and perhaps the stock market shall experience a hissy fit, asking why the UK is matching the USA in mortality despite being only 22% of the US population.

As always, I admit to a personal agenda, thanks to leukaemia, a compromised immune system, and a promise to my wife I’d take her shoe shopping once it’s safe to return to the outside world. The shoe shopping thing is truly frightening, a throwaway commitment in a moment of thankful weakness when she returned from the supermarket with croissants.

 

Now we’ve established an upward trigger at 5,940 points, where’s the trigger of doom which shall spell further trouble ahead?

 

Visually 4,900 points appears to prop up the Gates of Hell as movement below risks being rather traumatic. Weakness now below 5,630 should give early warning of real danger ahead, this allowing reversal now to an initial 5,440 points. If broken, secondary is a tame sounding 5,260 but as this takes the index solidly into the Land of Lower Lows, the market could plunge to 4,820 quite easily.

Obviously, this breaks the 4,900 level, making further slides almost inevitable.

 

All we need is for St Boris to employ his magic wand. And the Financial Times to be utterly wrong.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
1:42:21PM	BRENT	24.64	22.45	20.75	15.38	24.4	25.28	27.48	30.32	23
1:44:50PM	GOLD	1729.56
1:47:04PM	FTSE	5804.27									‘cess
9:32:22PM	FRANCE	4442.2									‘cess
9:36:09PM	GERMANY	10475	10320	10194.5	10054	10438	10502	10570	10651	10378	‘cess
9:39:09PM	US500	2837.02									‘cess
9:59:10PM	DOW	23762.7
10:15:24PM	NASDAQ	8778.87
10:17:04PM	JAPAN	19407									‘cess

 

 

24/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5752 points. Change of -1.27%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,679,159,654 a change of -17.56%

23/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5826 points. Change of 0.97%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,675,602,564 a change of -4.08%

22/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5770 points. Change of 2.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,917,121,031 a change of -3.58%

21/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5641 points. Change of -2.94%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,136,810,305 a change of 18.04%

20/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5812 points. Change of 0.45%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,198,867,869 a change of -28.63%

17/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5786 points. Change of 2.81%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,284,056,629 a change of 24.33%

16/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5628 points. Change of 0.55%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,858,772,454 a change of -15.73%