FTSE for 13/03/2020

#DOW #Gold #FreeFutures We really hate sounding like panic merchants. Our commentary last Friday showed 5,260 on the chart, a number we felt worthy of display but we didn’t bother explaining the rational in the analysis. So, a drop of 1,467 points in a week saw the market close Thursday at 5,237 points. This is known as ‘ headless chicken’ territory…

What next, given the UK market closed a session below a major target level?

Rather surprisingly, we suspect some sort of rebound must be on the horizon, if only to allow the market to gather sufficient weight for future reversals. But we’re pretty far from confident any rebound will “stick”, given the FTSE is now trading lower than any point since 2012. We should probably abandon our inherent caution, instead adopting similar levels of misery to that adopted by a TV reporter interviewing a doctor.

The Big Picture now suggests weakness below 5237 should bring travel down to an initial 4969 points with secondary, if broken, at 4368 points. In fact, secondary could find itself at 3944, thanks the the market being manipulated downward at the open recently. Visually, there would normally be ample reason to hope for a rebound around the 4969 point but experience during March (hasn’t this been a long month!) constantly warns the only thing to expect is disappointment.

The market has been forcing the market down quite firmly!

This absurd suggestion comes, thanks to movements made in the opening second of trade. On the days the market was not actively forced downward at the open, reversals experienced were ‘only’ 60 and 70 points respectively. On the other two days this week, the market itself forced prices down at the open, creating an environment of panic. It’s certainly quite sobering to reflect on market reversals being caused by the market itself, perhaps taking advantage of an epidemic to maximise on a climate of fear.

Should the FTSE now manage below 3944 points, we’re looking at eventual reversal to a bottom (hopefully) of 3171 points. If achieved, this will be lower than 2009 and also, the crash of 2003.

Hey, chart goes here

Near term, we’ve a slight suspicion some sort of bounce may occur, so we’ll focus on recovery scenario first.

Above 5311 points is supposed to provoke recovery to a useless 5345 points. If exceeded, our secondary calculates up at 5427 points. And given the pace of descent, we can give a third target level, up at 5549 points, effectively the level the market stabilised for most of Thursdays session. If triggered, the tightest stop is at 5237 points.

Even for near term reversal potentials, we suggest looking at the Big Picture scenario above. Things are moving fast.

Hey, chart goes here

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

10:51:23PM

BRENT

33.49

33.11

30.91

 

35.22

35.21

36.03

 

33.77

‘cess

10:54:54PM

GOLD

1576

1560

1549

 

1591

1609

1614

 

1566

Success

11:09:21PM

FTSE

5273

5194

5169

 

5354

5467

5620

 

5280

Success

11:11:29PM

FRANCE

3958

3943

3876.5

 

4103

4125

4172.5

 

4027

‘cess

11:14:37PM

GERMANY

8985

8843

8808

 

9121

9121

9195

 

8873

Success

11:18:22PM

US500

2452

2420

2372

 

2487

2553

2601

 

2492

Success

11:26:14PM

DOW

20934

20552

20480

 

21219

21555

21866

 

21220

Success

11:30:27PM

NASDAQ

7162.12

7059

6827

 

7486

7246

7302

 

7140

Success

11:33:19PM

JAPAN

17238

16949

16772.5

 

17542

17542

17646

 

17229

Success

 

 

12/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5237 points. Change of -10.87%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,993,953,766 a change of -24.85%

11/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5876 points. Change of -1.41%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,307,244,216 a change of -11.98%

10/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5960 points. Change of -0.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 10,574,130,773 a change of -8.51%

9/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5965 points. Change of -7.55%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 11,557,885,051 a change of 24.01%

6/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 6452 points. Change of -3.77%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,320,342,676 a change of 15.12%

5/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 6705 points. Change of -1.61%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,096,440,019 a change of 2.53%

4/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 6815 points. Change of 1.44%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,896,662,173 a change of -10.1%

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