#DOW #CAC40 Every time Scotland gets restless, demanding independence from Westminster control, the price of Brent starts to drop. With the (almost) certainty of another referendum next year (The Scots voted nearly 2/3 AGAINST Brexit), we ask how the price of crude is looking. Unsurprisingly, the answer suggests pretty poorly for the longer term.
The immediate issue is at 54.5 as we’d regard this as a trigger for some fairly firm reversals. Below such a level allows weakness down to an initial 45 dollars with secondary, if broken, at a bottom (hopefully) at 39 dollars. If triggered, the stuff requires above Blue, presently 63.5, to cancel the drop potentials anytime soon but realistically, we calculate the product needs above 67.51 dollars to utterly foul the reversal potentials.
We’re being a little satirical with causes for the drop – the plunge to 28 dollars didn’t take place until 15 months after the last Scottish referendum. Unsurprisingly, the writing had been on the wall for a major drop at the very start of 2014, around the time the last independence referendum was announced.
On this occasion, we’re calculating an ultimate bottom potential at 26 dollars, if everything goes horribly wrong for Brent.
In the event a miracle occurs, above 67.5 looks like it should trigger moves to an initial 70.5 dollars. If bettered, secondary is at 75 and a probable hesitation. For now though, we rather suspect we shall see 39 dollars drip into view.
Recent opinion polls are suggesting a majority in favour of an independent Scotland. Amusingly, it also appears both Labour and Conservatives in Scotland are seeking to break away from their masters in London. It’s unclear quite how that will fly when they campaign against independence.
|
Time Issued |
Market |
Price At Issue |
Short Entry |
Fast Exit |
Slow Exit |
Stop |
Long Entry |
Fast Exit |
Slow Exit |
Stop |
Prior |
|
10:16:06PM |
BRENT |
60.1 |
Success | ||||||||
|
10:17:50PM |
GOLD |
1502.6 | |||||||||
|
10:22:08PM |
FTSE |
7201.57 | |||||||||
|
10:30:52PM |
FRANCE |
5427.5 |
5380 |
5371 |
5347 |
5435 |
5443 |
5450 |
5483 |
5380 |
Success |
|
10:33:51PM |
GERMANY |
11809.63 |
Success | ||||||||
|
10:36:03PM |
US500 |
2932.02 |
Success | ||||||||
|
10:44:08PM |
DOW |
26262.7 |
26112 |
26093 |
26033 |
26248 |
26273 |
26346 |
26502 |
26070 |
Success |
|
10:45:40PM |
NASDAQ |
7749.12 |
Success | ||||||||
|
10:46:55PM |
JAPAN |
20711 |
Success |