Trends and Targets for 16/10/2018

#Sirius Minerals and Fundamentals #GOLD #CAC40. This lot are starting to give good reason for concern in the future. Every now and then, we come across a number regarded as sacrosanct and in the case of Sirius, it’s at just 22.75p. What merits this analysis happened in September and again, the start of October.

On two distinct occasions, the share price briefly made it below 22.75p, thankfully failing to close a session below this trigger level. Due to our usual in-house paranoia, these two movements are a real concern, tending to “prove” we’re not alone in our worry about the 22.75p level. Each break below was corrected within seconds.

What happens if Sirius now actually closes a session below 22.75p?

 

This one is quite unusual, due to the presence of the RED uptrend since 2015. It implies some sort of bounce just above the 20p level but in reality, we suspect continued weakness to 16p can be expected. If broken, secondary is at 13p – a truly dangerous level. The obvious visual problem with 13p will be the share price painting a pretty firm “lower low”, making a longer term (or bad news) 4.25p a very distinct possibility.

 

As always, we’ve a “however” ready to be dusted down.

At time of writing, the share is trading around 25.2p, needing only to better 27p to trigger near term recovery to an initial 29.25p. In itself, not a particularly interesting movement but the secondary, if bettered, of 33.25p will tend break ground for continued future growth. It’s not terribly difficult to project a future 39p, along with a bonk against the downtrend since 2016.

Fingers crossed time.

 

Fundamentals

We’re always ready to ridicule those who believe in Candlestick formations, Moving Averages, and the rest of the nonsense indicators true believers adhere to. On the other hand, there’s Fundamentals, something we inadvertently provided a case lesson on.

Regular readers will be aware of my inconvenient brush with Leukaemia last week, an incident where I gave the impression the diagnosis was Friday and hospitalised for the following week. While “basically” this was true, it’s worth asking why I was having bloods tested?

The reason – my incurable illness first appeared in 2012, along with an eventual aggressive chemotherapy treatment, the effects of which still cause problems. I was warned “my” version of Leukaemia was on a repeat cycle, roughly every five years. As a result, regular blood tests revealed the cancer cells starting to multiply almost exactly on the 5 year anniversary. At this point, it all became a matter of time with blood work revealing chemo was needed last December. A chest infection stalled things until May at which point my consultant asked if I wanted to enjoy summer – due to my immune system not yet playing up, nor were shaving cuts flowing with blood.

Time passed, things did becomes worse fairly fast, so the Friday diagnosis and Monday hospital should not have been a complete surprise. (trust me, it was)

This is the strength of Fundamentals. Knowing a little information can give a completely wrong impression and yes, we wish we had the in-house resources to combine Fundamentals with our approach to share prices. Instead, we rely on folk emailing, always hoping they have thoroughly checked the Fundies of companies such as Sirius above.

From a personal viewpoint, I’ve probably got the most convenient illness, one which traps me with my computers and software!

FUTURES

	Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
	9:44:31PM	BRENT	80.61
	9:45:59PM	GOLD	1227.28	1219	1217.5	1212	1226	1234	1239	1254	1219	‘cess
	9:48:38PM	FTSE	7011.24
	9:50:27PM	FRANCE	5090.7	5051	5017	4935	5108	5107	5125	5149	5076
	9:53:13PM	GERMANY	11599.26
	9:54:57PM	US500	2745.17
	9:56:40PM	DOW	25193.7
	9:58:34PM	NASDAQ	7056.12
	10:00:49PM	JAPAN	22195									‘cess