#Natwest #Bitcoin, & Wall St An attempt to visit Glencoe to enjoy snow fell apart, thanks to a pre-lockdown ambush. Stopping at a chums (otherwise closed) hotel en-route, we all sat outside in a heated garden area, enjoying an early lunch, plenty of red wine, coffee with rum, and the genuine pleasure of gathering with friends, safely, in spectacular countryside. Ideas of skiing were forgotten, especially due to the mid afternoon news the Scottish Govt had just banned everything again.
As has become usual, Boris followed suit several hours later, ensuring the entire UK can spend time fondly remembering when they could ‘almost’ socialise. One strange aspect, folk arriving at Heathrow continue to experience fewer checks than those entering a supermarket in Germany? Some things just don’t make sense.
The first trading day of the year managed to take nonsensical to new levels. The FTSE was UP by around 1.7%. Meanwhile, the various US markets were DOWN by around 1.5% and Bitcoin took a stupid pill. The fake currency has been experiencing remorseless rises for the last few weeks, quite literally doubling in value since the start of November. There’s now a problem rearing its head as we’d a calculation of $36,000 as the point where Bitcoin should almost certainly experience some hesitation. The market appears to have a different idea, the phony value achieving a high of $35,000 before hysterics established themselves.
From our perspective, if Bitcoin were to somehow better $36k, a new era would dawn as we cannot calculate any sort of “top”. Essentially, it could go anywhere. Instead, we’ve no option but to suspect weakness may creep into the game. Alarm bells will ring, if Bitcoin manages to trade below 28,900 anytime soon as a correction toward 24,500 calculates as possible. Visually it’s possible and unfortunately, our longer term (or later in the session) secondary works out at $17,800.
As mentioned above, Wall St managed to toddle off, doing the opposite of Europe in a confusing day. Perhaps, like our waylaid skiing party, the US managed to find convivial surrounding in which to do something more interesting than trade the markets! The DOW need only trade below 30,040 points to next enter a slight reversal cycle to 29,815 points with secondary, if broken, at 29,537. Visually neither calculation is particularly threatening given the index behaviour over the last few months.
Finally, we don’t want to look at Natwest but, as we analyse one of the banking sector at the start of every week, even a grudging look is better than no look at all! Near term, it looks like weakness below 157p shall provoke reversals to an initial 152 and hopefully a bounce, given the position of the immediate uptrend. In the event 152p breaks, hopefully 142p shall provide a bottom.
The share price needs better 170p to suggest happy days, calculating with an initial ambition at 180p with secondary, if bettered, at 188p. Either target will represent new ‘post Covid’ highs and suggest a positive attitude for the future.
FUTURES
| Time Issued | Market | Price At Issue | Short Entry | Fast Exit | Slow Exit | Stop | Long Entry | Fast Exit | Slow Exit | Stop |
| 10:26:17PM | BRENT | 50.76 | 50.57 | 50.16 | 49.11 | 51.52 | 53.31 | 53.72 | 54.77 | 52.21 |
| 10:34:20PM | GOLD | 1943.17 | ||||||||
| 10:35:50PM | FTSE | 6561.15 | ||||||||
| 10:40:47PM | FRANCE | 5568 | ||||||||
| 10:42:16PM | GERMANY | 13686 | 13583 | 13500 | 13360 | 13716 | 13738 | 13787.5 | 13855 | 13635 |
| 10:44:15PM | US500 | 3704.12 | ||||||||
| 10:46:13PM | DOW | 30224 | ||||||||
| 10:47:45PM | NASDAQ | 12692 | ||||||||
| 10:49:33PM | JAPAN | 27100 |