#FreeFutures Despite the FTSE index only being up 0.2%, it has been an extraordinary week for the market with surprising numbers of shares nudging above their growth triggers. Very few have reached their initial targets. Perhaps suggesting caution until news of a Brexit deal actually turns out to be real! Until then, just watch “The Good Place” on telly…
Even then, there risks being trouble on the horizon.
In a world already aflame with protest against cack-handed government, Hong Kong protests invade our nightly news, protests on Spain continued unabashed (unless including the bashing from the police), and of course, French protests have become so commonplace, the media ignores them. In the wings, the UK faces a problem with Scotland if the current agreement goes ahead. Apparently it disadvantages the entire country, already agitating for independence and voted nearly 2/3 against leaving the EU. While unrest from Scotland feels unthinkable, nearly 4% of the population marched on Edinburgh in foul conditions a few days ago in favour of independence. This massive turnout was not widely covered by UK media, aside from an interesting analysis on the BBC suggesting if more than 3.5% of a counties populace take to the streets, their revolution will succeed.
Long story short, even if Westminster successfully achieves some sort of Brexit agreement, it becomes highly unlikely we’ve seen the end of this messy story as far as the UK is concerned.
For Friday, the FTSE is in a fairly interesting position. It closed Thursday at 7182 and needs exceed Thursday high of 7238 before we dare believe the FTSE is celebrating in earnest, showing the potential of some real recovery. Near term, above 7242 indicates coming growth to an initial 7257 points. If exceeded, secondary is a more useful 7294 points and a level where some hesitation is expected. However, if the market opts to “go for it”, we can mention a third level target at 7349 and this calculates as a point where some volatility is expected. Interesting to note, it also intersects with the downtrend since July.
As always, we’ve an “however” and alternate scenario. The lowest the market has achieved in October has been 7004 points, this being a concern. We had calculated a “bottom and bounce level” at 7034 points and the index squirmed below. Thankfully, for those chasing a bounce, we’d also proposed a stop loss around 6,990 points and the index has certainly provided payback.
But our 7034 did break, hinting at a risk of real weakness if sufficient excuse discovered.
Now, below 7141 calculates as entering a cycle down to an initial 7083 points. If broken, secondary calculates at 7024. This again shall take the FTSE into the land of lower lows where an ill timed Tweet or political quote could rapidly provoke reversal to 6750 points.
For now, we shall not be surprised to witness 7349 before everything unravels again.
|
Time Issued |
Market |
Price At Issue |
Short Entry |
Fast Exit |
Slow Exit |
Stop |
Long Entry |
Fast Exit |
Slow Exit |
Stop |
Prior |
|
10:01:40PM |
BRENT |
59.67 |
58.25 |
57.87 |
59.3 |
59.77 |
60.14 |
59.12 | |||
|
10:04:46PM |
GOLD |
1492.5 |
1487 |
1484.125 |
1495 |
1498 |
1501 |
1489 |
‘cess | ||
|
10:06:19PM |
FTSE |
7185.43 |
7161 |
7139 |
7195 |
7239 |
7255 |
7162 |
‘cess | ||
|
10:11:55PM |
FRANCE |
5677.2 |
5656 |
5627.5 |
5710 |
5737 |
5746.25 |
5674 |
‘cess | ||
|
10:32:09PM |
GERMANY |
12661.28 |
12592 |
12522.5 |
12726 |
12812 |
12867 |
12619 |
Success | ||
|
10:34:02PM |
US500 |
2999.32 |
2985 |
2980.5 |
3003 |
3009 |
3012.5 |
2990 | |||
|
10:37:04PM |
DOW |
27040 |
26914 |
26867.5 |
27077 |
27126 |
27191.5 |
27001 |
‘cess | ||
|
10:39:54PM |
NASDAQ |
7944.37 |
7912 |
7886.5 |
7952 |
7957 |
7988 |
7930 |
‘cess | ||
|
10:42:33PM |
JAPAN |
22524 |
22421 |
22315 |
22612 |
22690 |
22765.5 |
22200 |
‘cess |
