Author: T&T Staff

#FTSE #Gold #SP500 There was a certain thrill at being ordered to ‘self isolate’, when phoning the hospital if it was okay to turn up for a blood test while ‘enjoying’ a dripping cold. Suddenly, life got serious, along with a need to text everyone. The balloon of being special, swiftly punctured, when wife pointed out the only people I tend see regularly are hospital staff every three months for blood tests…

Covid-19 continues to disrupt normal peoples lives with the FTSE suffering a pretty dreadful Monday. If fairness, the drop was kick-started with an opening second 100 point reversal. This proved sufficient to ensure both targets given in our previous report were achieved by 8:30am, damping 289 points in the bank. We’re now rather invested in a simple little movement the FTSE enacted at 4pm.

Our most optimistic thoughts planned for the market achieving a rebound toward 5160 points but somehow or other, the FTSE achieved 5187, holding the level for a few minutes. If this upward surge is a sign of some strength making itself felt, we can calculate movement now above 5187 should bring an initial (tame) 5253 points. If exceeded, our secondary calculates at a more interesting 5424 points.

When we review after hours FTSE Futures, we’re not entirely sold on optimism. Visually, the greater danger appears to be of weakness below 4902 bringing reversal to an initial 4791 points. If broken, near term secondary is at 4738 points.

At present, the FTSE needs exceed 5425 points to break above the immediate March downtrend.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:34:47PM	BRENT	30.71									‘cess
9:41:25PM	GOLD	1514									Success
9:47:23PM	FTSE	5034									‘cess
10:20:46PM	FRANCE	3792									‘cess
10:23:16PM	GERMANY	8586									‘cess
10:25:56PM	US500	2420.79	2384	2369.5	2257	2475	2454	2484.5	2518	2395
10:29:03PM	DOW	20424									‘cess
10:31:13PM	NASDAQ	7068.25									‘cess
10:33:22PM	JAPAN	16490									‘cess

16/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5151 points. Change of -4.01%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 10,538,775,450 a change of -6.31%

13/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5366 points. Change of 2.46%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 11,248,883,463 a change of 60.84%

12/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5237 points. Change of -10.87%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,993,953,766 a change of -24.85%

11/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5876 points. Change of -1.41%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,307,244,216 a change of -11.98%

10/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5960 points. Change of -0.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 10,574,130,773 a change of -8.51%

9/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5965 points. Change of -7.55%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 11,557,885,051 a change of 24.01%

6/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 6452 points. Change of -3.77%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,320,342,676 a change of 15.12%

 

#Brent #DAX #FTSE There’s something almost horrific about the words “Underlying Health Condition”. Even at this early stage, the media opt to slide the term in, following news of a Covid-19 death, obviously sending the comforting message – ‘you’ll be okay’ to the rest of the populace. Have gone through chemo in 2019, this writer enjoys an “underlying health condition” thus, is concerned. A lingering cold since Xmas gives a reminder of the strength – or otherwise – of the immune system.

We’re going to focus on the FTSE daily while this volatility remains as it certainly has an underlying health condition. Our report on Friday proved pretty concise, the market opting to march up to the top of a hill, then march all the way down again. It closed the day at 5323 points.

Weakness now below 5237 should anticipate reversal down to an initial 5136 points. If broken, secondary now calculates down at 4948 points. This is obviously pretty dangerous, tending confirm the risk of longer term reversal down to the 3,000’s. Unfortunately, the tightest visual stop loss level in this scenario is absurdly wide at 5404 points.

Above 5404 is supposed to generate a lift to 5444 points. If exceeded, secondary is at 5503 points. We have our doubts.

Finally, always remember we are discussing The FTSE during trading hours, not FTSE After Hours Futures.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
7:04:06PM	BRENT	35.32	33.33	31.905	25	35.3	36.7	39.135	41.15	33.7
7:06:38PM	GOLD	1530.66									‘cess
7:08:27PM	FTSE	5664									‘cess
8:18:52PM	FRANCE	4304									Success
8:25:31PM	GERMANY	9620.5	9050	8611	6987	9675	9732	9983	10294	9340	Success
8:52:09PM	US500	2669.2									Success
9:06:49PM	DOW	22860									Success
9:11:25PM	NASDAQ	7829									Success
9:38:40PM	JAPAN	17973									Success

 

 

13/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5366 points. Change of 2.46%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 11,248,883,463 a change of 60.84%

12/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5237 points. Change of -10.87%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,993,953,766 a change of -24.85%

11/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5876 points. Change of -1.41%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,307,244,216 a change of -11.98%

10/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5960 points. Change of -0.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 10,574,130,773 a change of -8.51%

9/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5965 points. Change of -7.55%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 11,557,885,051 a change of 24.01%

6/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 6452 points. Change of -3.77%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,320,342,676 a change of 15.12%

5/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 6705 points. Change of -1.61%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,096,440,019 a change of 2.53%

#DOW #Gold #FreeFutures We really hate sounding like panic merchants. Our commentary last Friday showed 5,260 on the chart, a number we felt worthy of display but we didn’t bother explaining the rational in the analysis. So, a drop of 1,467 points in a week saw the market close Thursday at 5,237 points. This is known as ‘ headless chicken’ territory…

What next, given the UK market closed a session below a major target level?

Rather surprisingly, we suspect some sort of rebound must be on the horizon, if only to allow the market to gather sufficient weight for future reversals. But we’re pretty far from confident any rebound will “stick”, given the FTSE is now trading lower than any point since 2012. We should probably abandon our inherent caution, instead adopting similar levels of misery to that adopted by a TV reporter interviewing a doctor.

The Big Picture now suggests weakness below 5237 should bring travel down to an initial 4969 points with secondary, if broken, at 4368 points. In fact, secondary could find itself at 3944, thanks the the market being manipulated downward at the open recently. Visually, there would normally be ample reason to hope for a rebound around the 4969 point but experience during March (hasn’t this been a long month!) constantly warns the only thing to expect is disappointment.

The market has been forcing the market down quite firmly!

This absurd suggestion comes, thanks to movements made in the opening second of trade. On the days the market was not actively forced downward at the open, reversals experienced were ‘only’ 60 and 70 points respectively. On the other two days this week, the market itself forced prices down at the open, creating an environment of panic. It’s certainly quite sobering to reflect on market reversals being caused by the market itself, perhaps taking advantage of an epidemic to maximise on a climate of fear.

Should the FTSE now manage below 3944 points, we’re looking at eventual reversal to a bottom (hopefully) of 3171 points. If achieved, this will be lower than 2009 and also, the crash of 2003.

Near term, we’ve a slight suspicion some sort of bounce may occur, so we’ll focus on recovery scenario first.

Above 5311 points is supposed to provoke recovery to a useless 5345 points. If exceeded, our secondary calculates up at 5427 points. And given the pace of descent, we can give a third target level, up at 5549 points, effectively the level the market stabilised for most of Thursdays session. If triggered, the tightest stop is at 5237 points.

Even for near term reversal potentials, we suggest looking at the Big Picture scenario above. Things are moving fast.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:51:23PM	BRENT	33.49	33.11	30.91		35.22	35.21	36.03		33.77	‘cess
10:54:54PM	GOLD	1576	1560	1549		1591	1609	1614		1566	Success
11:09:21PM	FTSE	5273	5194	5169		5354	5467	5620		5280	Success
11:11:29PM	FRANCE	3958	3943	3876.5		4103	4125	4172.5		4027	‘cess
11:14:37PM	GERMANY	8985	8843	8808		9121	9121	9195		8873	Success
11:18:22PM	US500	2452	2420	2372		2487	2553	2601		2492	Success
11:26:14PM	DOW	20934	20552	20480		21219	21555	21866		21220	Success
11:30:27PM	NASDAQ	7162.12	7059	6827		7486	7246	7302		7140	Success
11:33:19PM	JAPAN	17238	16949	16772.5		17542	17542	17646		17229	Success

 

 

12/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5237 points. Change of -10.87%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,993,953,766 a change of -24.85%

11/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5876 points. Change of -1.41%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,307,244,216 a change of -11.98%

10/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5960 points. Change of -0.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 10,574,130,773 a change of -8.51%

9/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5965 points. Change of -7.55%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 11,557,885,051 a change of 24.01%

6/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 6452 points. Change of -3.77%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,320,342,676 a change of 15.12%

5/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 6705 points. Change of -1.61%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,096,440,019 a change of 2.53%

4/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 6815 points. Change of 1.44%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,896,662,173 a change of -10.1%

#Nasdaq #France Kimberly-Clark, owners of Andrex (the UK’s favourite toilet paper), must be laughing all the way to the loo, given UK public’ behaviour in response to CoronaVirus. Unsurprisingly, it looks like it shall need more than this countries irrational behaviour to save NYSE:KMB from being flushed. But first, some bumf.

It transpires the term “bumf” dates back to Victorian times, the word shortened from its original “bumfodder”. Which was the original name for toilet tissue. Thankfully, the word hasn’t strayed far from its roots, thanks to the vast levels of bumf received prior to the UK’s recent general election, materials still used to light the log fire!

As for Kimberly-Clark share price, it looks like weakness now below 131 should drive reversal to an initial 125 dollars. If (when) broken, we suspect it shall bottom at 105 dollars and hopefully rebound.

France, the CAC40, is looks a bit fraught. We last covered it in August 2019, giving criteria for reversal to 4728 points. It finally triggered reversal at the end of February and  since has been pretty much as expected, if rather fast. The index has now closed 3 sessions solidly below target, so we must dwell of downward potentials for the future.

The immediate situation is fairly blunt, the index requiring above 4990 points just to regain the prior uptrend… With the strength of downward commitment, we have our doubts. Instead, it appears weakness now below 4600 should bring reversal to an initial 4533. We’d hope for a real rebound at such a level as the implication below is quite dreadful. The secondary calculation comes in at 4358 points, taking the market to a “lower low” (yes, we’re getting fed up writing this) and placing the French index at risk of continuing downhill in the longer term to a bottom of 3094 points.

Of course, given the pace of recent reversals, “the longer term” could easily mean sometime next week!

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:39:34PM	BRENT	36.27									‘cess
9:43:29PM	GOLD	1635.49									Shambles
9:46:29PM	FTSE	5810.02									Success
9:55:10PM	FRANCE	4548.8	4506	4449.5	4291	4576	4630	4646	4674	4570	‘cess
10:22:49PM	GERMANY	10287
10:26:15PM	US500	2763
10:29:29PM	DOW	23740									‘cess
10:32:13PM	NASDAQ	8096	7900	7797	7577	8130	8231	8281.5	8383	8072
10:34:50PM	JAPAN	19265	18919	18852.5	18440	19220	19696	19974	20322	19396

 

11/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5876 points. Change of -1.41%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,307,244,216 a change of -11.98%

10/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5960 points. Change of -0.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 10,574,130,773 a change of -8.51%

9/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5965 points. Change of -7.55%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 11,557,885,051 a change of 24.01%

6/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 6452 points. Change of -3.77%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,320,342,676 a change of 15.12%

5/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 6705 points. Change of -1.61%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,096,440,019 a change of 2.53%

4/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 6815 points. Change of 1.44%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,896,662,173 a change of -10.1%

3/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 6718 points. Change of 0.96%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,783,341,942 a change of -20.21%

#FTSE #Japan Given it’s ‘amateur dramatic week’ for the price of Crude, a few emails reminded it’s worth a glance at Shell’s future price potentials. When we last reviewed them (link) we provided a scenario for 17 quid or less. Obviously, the share price has fully embraced these potentials, relaxing severely but curiously, there is an argument for a rebound.

Recovery anytime soon above above 1493p should prove useful, calculating with an initial price target at 1567p. Oddly (for us), despite this movement potential being rather trivial in the grand scheme of things, it’s a scenario we’re pretty comfortable with. Things become a bit more vague above 1567p as our secondary target works out at 1758p. Presently, all the secondary does is give hope for an attempt at the immediate downtrend (Blue). Only with price closure above this line dare we express sentiment of “proper” share price recovery commencing as we’re able to give 2239 as a third level target.

At time of writing, Shell are trading at 1371p and we’d now be inclined to alarm, if any excuse is found to drill down below 1243p. Movement such as this is liable to trigger reversal to an initial 1094p with secondary, if broken, down at 834p. Visually, the secondary calculation is absurd but unfortunately, so was our calculation yesterday which provided a drop target for Brent at 15 dollars.

Sometimes numbers, like politicians salaries, can be absurd. And unlike politicians salaries, they don’t have to be wrong.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:56:45PM	BRENT	38.17
10:04:57PM	GOLD	1651
10:07:49PM	FTSE	6105.61	6016	5908.5	5800	6059	6234	6383.5	6609	6016	Success
10:09:47PM	FRANCE	4824.8
10:37:52PM	GERMANY	10760									Success
10:41:23PM	US500	2853.92									Success
10:43:54PM	DOW	24777									Success
10:46:32PM	NASDAQ	8299.68									Success
10:50:44PM	JAPAN	19715	19008	18777.5	18309	19483	20108	20283	20708	19500	‘cess

10/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5960 points. Change of -0.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 10,574,130,773 a change of -8.51%

9/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5965 points. Change of -7.55%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 11,557,885,051 a change of 24.01%

6/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 6452 points. Change of -3.77%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,320,342,676 a change of 15.12%

5/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 6705 points. Change of -1.61%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,096,440,019 a change of 2.53%

4/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 6815 points. Change of 1.44%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,896,662,173 a change of -10.1%

3/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 6718 points. Change of 0.96%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,783,341,942 a change of -20.21%

2/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 6654 points. Change of 1.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 11,007,742,370 a change of -20.6%

#Gold #SP500 The markets are producing movements never before experienced. We’re more than a little concerned as despite any possible near term rebound, an awful lot of triggers were demolished which permit further weakness into the realms of doom. Brent proved a case in point. Our last report had $39 as “bottom”, a number which was ignored when the market gapped the price down at the open of trade, the day starting at 37.5 dollars before trading even commenced.

Equally, Gold is supposed to be a defensive commodity, we’d guess the metals density making it useful to hit anyone suspected of carrying Covid-19. Gold, thus far, has avoided making serious panic gains above the 1700 level. Perhaps Toilet Paper shall prove to be the new Gold, if panic buying is a reliable indicator!

The price of Brent is a certain concern, gapped down to open the week at 37.50 dollars. Usually we’re able to back test this sort of thing in an attempt to find a trend we’d previously missed. Unfortunately, on the occasion, we’re far from comfortable. Crude dropped further than we’d normally expect, now residing in a region with some pretty dire drop potentials.

Just over 4 years ago, Brent hit a market bottom at 27.8 dollars, a number we’d first mooted when it was trading at 107. And to be honest, while we mentioned the potential, we also ridiculed it, thinking the potential highly improbable. This time, we’re not being as cautious!

The situation now calculates with weakness below 31 dollars allowing reversal to an initial 25 dollars. If (or doubtless, when) broken, our secondary works out at a bottom of 15 dollars. We believe, if 15 dollars ever makes an appearance, Brent must bounce. Several reasons support such a theory. Firstly, since 2016, three quite distinct scenario now allow an eventual bottom of 15 dollars. Secondly, we cannot calculate anything below such a level.

Shown on the chart below is the immediate downtrend, suggesting the product price needs almost double to 60 dollars to rejoin prior trends.

Perhaps of greater concern should be the proposed target levels, each below the markets prior disaster level of 27.8 dollars. The implicit suggestion therefore is the best we can hope is an entirely new trend shall develop in the future, one which will find difficulty taking the product to prior levels.

Unless, of course, something happens in the world and proves able to change the perception of “demand” for crude oil.

We’ve not bothered writing "success" against each index. While all drop targets were achieved, it was due to the markets being gapped down at the open. This sort of thing never feels like a win.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:19:54PM	BRENT	33.58									Success
10:22:15PM	GOLD	1677.41	1632	1611.5	1581	1670	1703	1730.5	1776	1663
10:28:07PM	FTSE	5755									Yes
10:32:57PM	FRANCE	4575.8									Yes
10:35:57PM	GERMANY	10279									Yes
10:40:01PM	US500	2732	2700	2655	2557	2787	2812	2826	2868	2751	Yes
11:01:54PM	DOW	23781									Yes
11:06:11PM	NASDAQ	8036.82									Yes
11:09:40PM	JAPAN	19093									And yes

 

9/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5965 points. Change of -7.55%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 11,557,885,051 a change of 24.01%

6/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 6452 points. Change of -3.77%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,320,342,676 a change of 15.12%

5/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 6705 points. Change of -1.61%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,096,440,019 a change of 2.53%

4/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 6815 points. Change of 1.44%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,896,662,173 a change of -10.1%

3/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 6718 points. Change of 0.96%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,783,341,942 a change of -20.21%

2/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 6654 points. Change of 1.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 11,007,742,370 a change of -20.6%

28/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 6580 points. Change of -3.18%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 13,863,850,185 a change of 59.9%

#Brent #DAX Virus fears certainly appear to be fouling airline share prices but it’s perhaps worth mentioning neither IAG nor EZY are yet trading in a zone where panic makes sense. They’re both certainly pretty close to messy, their prices not yet entering the official “lower low” flight level to misery.

However, we’ve decided it’s probably best not being flippant about Coronavirus. News coverage now pollutes every single section of Google News – World / Local / Sport / Business / Entertainment(?) / Politics, Tech, even Science!

It’s doubtless fair to assume folk will prefer avoid spending any time in flying Petri dishes while panic levels remain high. This will surely create an ongoing income problem for the travel industry, making it easy to believe the drops since February 20th may simple be early warning of trouble. If this proves the case, weakness against IAG below 394p risks proving messy, signalling the risk of further reversal to 334p. If broken, secondary calculates down at 222p.

Despite being a truly shambolic reversal suggestion – a 50% reduction on current – this risks not being the end of the story as “bottom” works out at somewhere between 100 and 138p ultimately.

At present, there is very little point in drawing a trend line to map the pace of reversals. Were we to do so, about the best we could suggest is of moves above 550p signalling the drop has slowed. In reality, any recovery is liable to prove sharp and vivid, if someone announces they’ve knocked together a cure for Covid-19 in their garden shed! But to be fair, we’d tend believe above just 462p will give sufficient early warning for price recovery.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
6:45:14PM	BRENT	45.56	45.2	43.06	36.56	52	53.8	55.4	58.8	51	Success
7:37:52PM	GOLD	1674.15									Shambles
8:09:16PM	FTSE	6457.4									Success
8:31:33PM	FRANCE	5139									Success
8:34:14PM	GERMANY	11525	11419	11365	11152	11590	11767	11866	12015	11551	Success
8:36:07PM	US500	2964.07									Success
9:17:52PM	DOW	25806.6									Success
9:20:00PM	NASDAQ	8504.12									Success
9:21:51PM	JAPAN	20424									Success

 

6/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 6452 points. Change of -3.77%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,320,342,676 a change of 15.12%

5/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 6705 points. Change of -1.61%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,096,440,019 a change of 2.53%

4/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 6815 points. Change of 1.44%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,896,662,173 a change of -10.1%

3/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 6718 points. Change of 0.96%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,783,341,942 a change of -20.21%

2/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 6654 points. Change of 1.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 11,007,742,370 a change of -20.6%

28/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 6580 points. Change of -3.18%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 13,863,850,185 a change of 59.9%

27/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 6796 points. Change of -3.49%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,670,151,517 a change of 31.45%