Author: T&T Staff

#France #SP500 When we last reviewed #Bitcoin in November, we suggested the possibility of a bottom at 5920. Amazingly, the crypto is on the verge of utterly nonsensing the prospect as it tries to mimic Gold as a “safe haven” for a nervous market. Thus far, we’re surprised at the lack of hysterics in wider markets, starting to suspect whether “the Iran Thing” is being taken seriously.

Gold, for instance, despite popping up to say ‘Hi’ to 1,611 is starting to show alarming signs of reversal. At time of writing, it’s trading around 1,560, signalling the potential of a bottom around 1,527 dollars. In fact, a true loss of fear against Middle East events could swiftly permit a meltdown to the 1,500 dollar level.

Therefore, despite the usual informed pundits jumping on the bandwagon and pulling target levels from nowhere, promising Bitcoin will doubtless head up to insane levels, we’ve pretty severe doubts. Visually, the chart gives some immediate problems. There’s a downtrend in Blue which appears to be provoking immediate reversal. In addition, there’s the uptrend in Red which also is presenting some sort of wall to fend of price rises.

Our computer claims, should Bitcoin now trade beyond 8470, we should anticipate travel up to an initial 8952 dollars. If exceeded, secondary calculates at 9130 dollars. The close proximity of both target levels suggest some sort of hesitation should be expected, if they actually make an appearance.

The alternate, reversal, scenario starts to look more likely. Weakness now below 7850 could swiftly drive the price downhill to an initial 7550 dollars. If broken, it should hopefully bottom by the 7050 dollar level.

No-one ever said Bitcoin is easy!

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:03:53PM	BRENT	65.71									Success
10:05:36PM	GOLD	1557.03									Success
10:26:46PM	FTSE	7598.1									Shambles
10:30:02PM	FRANCE	6041.7	5991	5967.5	5936	6049	6062	6089	6129	6000
10:33:08PM	GERMANY	13388									Success
10:35:48PM	US500	3259.57	3221	3205.5	3185	3246	3267	3271	3284	3235	Success
10:38:45PM	DOW	28804									Success
10:41:10PM	NASDAQ	8930.37									Success
10:49:00PM	JAPAN	23512									‘cess

 

8/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7574 points. Change of 0.01%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,404,992,564 a change of 14%

7/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7573 points. Change of -0.03%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,741,303,337 a change of 0.44%

6/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7575 points. Change of -0.62%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,720,635,792 a change of 20.67%

3/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7622 points. Change of 0.46%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,912,167,844 a change of 21.73%

30/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7587 points. Change of -100%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,213,676,764 a change of 0%

27/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7644 points. Change of 0%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 2,906,900,069 a change of 0%

#FTSE #Nasdaq #Forex Timeframes are not our thing but still, our software is used to map important dates in the future. Thus, we know it’s 67 days ’till the next GP, the dogs are 5.9 & 12.2 years old, wifes birthday is in 152 days, that sort of thing. But knowing when #GBPUSD would precisely hit the 1.35 target given in our last report (link) is curiously absent in the status bar of our program.

This was an ambitious feature created, back in the days when it was naively thought we could get a handle on time. Alas, similar to the current Dr Who, we’re unable to do this. And why does a female Doctor need a posse of assistants spanning social demographics, when a male Doctor only ever needed a single assistant? Is the implication, a female Doctor cannot handle the same workload as her male counterpoint?

Our last diatribe relating to the Pound / Dollar pairing was given with the relationship at 1.292. If was to take just three weeks for the price achieve our 1.35 target, only to fall back to its usual holding pattern within the next few weeks. With 20:20 hindsight, the impetus for the share price jump was the Coronation of Boris but we’re increasingly concerned as to movements in the period since. Essentially, what had felt like strength is now doing a fair impersonation of a Flash in a Pan.

The relationship has certainly flopped around since the UK election, currently residing in a zone where weakness below 1.304 calculates with the potential of reversal to an initial 1.287. While visually, there’s a strong argument for a bounce at such a level, we’d warn if 1.287 breaks, our secondary calculation is at 1.266. Unfortunately, this shall take the pairing firmly into the grasp of a longer term “bottom” at 1.230.

However, one aspect of this period of flailing around is the potential, should the pairing firm up above 1.33 as this should trigger strength to an initial 1.361. And if exceeded, our secondary of 1.40 looks pretty logical.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:24:17PM	BRENT	68.07									‘cess
10:26:07PM	GOLD	1575.08									‘cess
10:28:19PM	FTSE	7563.84	7542	7490.5	7428	7596	7606	7621.5	7648	7560	‘cess
10:30:16PM	FRANCE	6005									‘cess
10:44:31PM	GERMANY	13180.73									‘cess
10:46:37PM	US500	3232.67									Shambles
10:50:03PM	DOW	28539									Shambles
10:53:44PM	NASDAQ	8830	8809	8788.5	8759	8865	8877	8912.5	8981	8834
10:56:26PM	JAPAN	23339									‘cess

 

 

7/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7573 points. Change of -0.03%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,741,303,337 a change of 0.44%

6/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7575 points. Change of -0.62%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,720,635,792 a change of 20.67%

3/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7622 points. Change of 0.46%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,912,167,844 a change of 21.73%

30/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7587 points. Change of -100%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,213,676,764 a change of 0%

27/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7644 points. Change of 0%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 2,906,900,069 a change of 0%

#BRENT #Gold #SP500 Few market signals are more useful than “the drop dead obvious”. Moves such as this become self fulfilling prophecies, simply due to the sheer volume of people watching an indicator, each believing they are the only one being clever. At present, Brent Crude exhibits such a sense of nonsense, thanks to the downtrend since 2008.

This trend line (shown below in BLUE) has been pretty firmly respected over the years and it’d be mad to think the current surge in the price of crude shall not face being derailed by the trend. Presently, this 12 year old line, ageing like a decent malt, needs the price of the black glop to exceed 86 dollars to suggest oil prices are about to go slightly crazy. Of course, the risk of further conflict in the Middle East is always going to be capable of provoking an interesting market. Essentially, above 86 dollars calculates with an initial ambition at 98 with secondary, if exceeded, a longer term 110 dollars. Surprisingly, a ceiling around 110 dollars makes for a very logical picture on the chart.

Alas, this appears unlikely given moves since the start of this year. Now above 71 dollars suggests growth to 74.50 and some hesitation, given prior highs. If exceeded, our secondary calculates at 81 dollars, an ambition unable to break the ruling downtrend anytime soon. Can we be the only folk wondering whether, thanks to 2019’s terrorism attack on a Saudi refinery failing to give a lasting boost to oil, we’re now witnessing another artificial (aside from those directly involved) attempt to ignite prices to new highs.

Of course, perhaps we’re just becoming too cynical. But if Brent somehow manages below 60 dollars anytime soon, it remains with the prospect of a bottom at 39 dollars.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:50:27PM	BRENT	68.34									‘cess
10:52:50PM	GOLD	1566.19	1560	1555	1544	1580	1582	1589.5	1599	1566
10:56:17PM	FTSE	7583.4									‘cess
10:58:47PM	FRANCE	6023.5									‘cess
11:01:55PM	GERMANY	13149									‘cess
11:04:01PM	US500	3242.62	3228	3220.5	3211	3238	3249	3255.25	3262	3238
11:06:44PM	DOW	28667									‘cess
11:11:14PM	NASDAQ	8839.37
11:19:22PM	JAPAN	23330									‘cess

 

 

6/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7575 points. Change of -0.62%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,720,635,792 a change of 20.67%

3/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7622 points. Change of 0.46%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,912,167,844 a change of 21.73%

30/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7587 points. Change of -100%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,213,676,764 a change of 0%

27/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7644 points. Change of 0%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 2,906,900,069 a change of 0%

#Brent #DAX The theory, as always, remains. If GOLD is going up, Index’ will probably go down. Of course, how this plays out against the current backdrop of a potential WW3, an absent UK PM, and the superb drama; “The Masked Singer” on TV leaving an entire nation aghast at the sheer level of effluent they are being force fed. On the plus side, it’s pleasant finding television switched off and books being read. Thus, “The Masked Singer” is deemed excellent.

As for the price of Gold, it’s a bit more interesting as it’s trading at 1,552 at time of writing. There appears to be a real trigger level now at 1,556 dollars. If the metal now manages above this level, further movement to 1,593 looks very possible. But to be realistic, our mid term analysis continues to insist 1,602 as a major point of interest, a level at which some reversal becomes almost essential.

Of course, if the current global posturing gets hot, 1,602 could easily be ignored as a footnote in history in a headline rush uphill to 1634 and some certain stutters. Longer term, 1,831 dollars calculates as a major ambition.

The chart below highlights the early signals of Gold starting to bubble up. We’re pretty far from convinced index’s shall decline in reaction to Golds movements. Quite the converse as there’s a heck of an argument suggesting even the FTSE should continue heading north, challenging (and probably beating) the highs of 2018. The only puzzle is whether we shall see the usual (?) mid January market decline before surprise recovery.

Finally, Happy New Year and our best wishes for a profitable one.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop
9:04:49PM	BRENT	68.49	67.56	67.18	66.45	68.88	69.37	69.79	71.35	67.5
9:06:45PM	GOLD	1552.89								1543
9:31:02PM	FTSE	7594.79								7587
9:33:00PM	FRANCE	6022.7								5993
9:34:39PM	GERMANY	13178.05	13118	13036	12894	13222	13248	13273	13324	13160
9:49:27PM	US500	3234.67								3228
9:51:02PM	DOW	28635								28518
9:52:37PM	NASDAQ	8794.24								8786
10:08:49PM	JAPAN	23300								23260

 

 

3/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7622 points. Change of 0.46%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,912,167,844 a change of 21.73%

30/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7587 points. Change of -0.75%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,213,676,764 a change of 10.55%

27/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7644 points. Change of -100%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 2,906,900,069 a change of 0%

23/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7623 points. Change of 0%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,173,556,993 a change of 0%

#DAX #FTSE #SP500 #GOLD This is always a difficult article to write, the last one of the year. With pundits everywhere warning of a major market correction in the first part of 2020 for ‘reasons’, we’re more inclined to look at the potential of domestic problems intruding. Oddly, it’s not Brexit but instead something called ‘The Declaration of Arbroath’, Scotland’s Magna Carta!

This document, penned 700 years ago, doubtless will feature during 2020 with the Scottish Govt once again stirring the pot for independence.

Despite archaic wording, it remains a powerful historical note, credited as the inspiration for the American Declaration of Independence. Words like “as long as but a hundred of us remain alive, never will we on any conditions be brought under English rule” give a clue to the tone of the parchment. Doubtless, this type of thing inspired the 6th verse, largely unsung, of the English National Anthem, ‘God Save the Queen’ with its slightly contentious lyric; “rebellious Scots to crush.“

This sort of nonsense, resonating through history, gives an excuse to turn up the volume in the Indie Debate, especially once Brexit happens. After all, everyone likes an excuse for a 700 year knees-up

In plain language, it looks like Scotland shall once again rock the boat, regardless of world markets.

A “Print This Out” section.

To signal potential danger levels against indices, on the S&P we think 3280 may prove troubling. If exceeded, 3500 almost must provide “issues”. The index requires below 2930 to spoil this calculation.

For the DOW JONES, travel to 29,900 shall not surprise us. And if bettered, 31,900 looks like a great level to try out a parachute. It will need below 27,000 to justify changing underwear.

Germany and The DAX is interesting as 14,100 calculates as possible. If bettered, it could even climb a 1,000 points higher before it “must” reverse. Below 12,470 and we’d start be concerned things are going wrong.

France with the CAC40 should run out of steam around 6,500 points. Needs below 5380 for panic.

Finally, the FTSE. It feels like 7860 should provoke some sort of ceiling but if exceeded, the index could clamber up to 8050, a point where oxygen masks risk failing. The UK market requires below 6,750 to give serious concern for its future.

Our best wishes for a profitable 2020. And thanks for tolerating this (usually) unedited headline section, where we try and use words to glue the numbers together!

One of the civilised things in Scotland is the 2nd January being a holiday, so we shall return on Sunday evening.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:00:51PM	BRENT	66.64	66.36	65.91		66.82	67.55	68.0775		65.54	Success
10:06:00PM	GOLD	1515.87	1510	1505.5		1515	1516	1518.5		1497
10:07:49PM	FTSE	7575	7570	7561		7612	7640	7657.5		7586	Success
10:11:15PM	FRANCE	5978	5974	5959.5		6027	6036	6053.5		5994	Success
10:14:01PM	GERMANY	13126	13107	13081		13195	13259	13283.75		13190	Success
10:15:52PM	US500	3222	3218	3213.5		3230	3245	3255.5		3230	Success
10:17:43PM	DOW	28465	28410	28377.5		28575	28658	28682.75		28420	Success
10:19:50PM	NASDAQ	8714.75	8686	8656.5		8736	8788	8825		8741	Success
10:21:56PM	JAPAN	23434	23415	23401.5		23586	23716	23820		23633	Success

 

 

 

30/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7587 points. Change of -0.75%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,213,676,764 a change of 10.55%

27/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7644 points. Change of 0.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 2,906,900,069 a change of -43.81%

23/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7623 points. Change of 0.54%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,173,556,993 a change of -55.23%

20/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7582 points. Change of 0.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 11,554,966,677 a change of -10.44%

19/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7573 points. Change of -100%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 12,902,220,870 a change of 0%

18/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7540 points. Change of 0%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,288,425,252 a change of 0%

#DAX #FTSE #GOLD We’ve probably all experienced the utter horror of a “friendly” family game of Monopoly/Scrabble on Xmas day, an event which turns into a battlefield with trust the only casualty. My own Xmas trauma was different. It involved a game of chess with a 6 year old grand-daughter, so what could go wrong? Especially after being told “Don’t let her win, she hates it!”.

As expected, the game needed punctuated with common sense suggestions. “If you make that move, it means I will move this and you will lose your player.”  All remained calm and peaceful for around 30 minutes until her Dad decided he could help. Then her Mum decided she’d join us at the table to help with my wife, finally, joining the revolution. Opting to stop giving suggestions to the opposing team, a true battle ensued with me facing 3 adults, a smug 6 year old, and a 9 year old ensuring everyone had fresh drinks. I think she was also on Google looking for smart moves!

What is it about Xmas Day which brings out a competitive streak in people? (they lost…)

I’ll admit to something similar, when it comes to face the markets. For a few sessions, I’ve been sagely suggesting 8750 as a probable ceiling on the Nasdaq. It was one of these inevitable things, an obvious point of reversal. And so, when the US market opted to gap the market up by 28 points at the open on Friday, it became unpleasantly clear I’d lost this particular battle. The market clearly had its own ideas, concepts which did not align with logic. The situation with this US market is a bit unpleasant. The next level, the area in which it really must show serious reversal is at 9100 points.

But if going short, doubtless it shall be wise to employ a really tight stop as opening second manipulation tends spoil every argument.

As for Monday and the FTSE, above 7665 calculates with an immediate potential at 7686 points. If bettered, secondary works out at 7698 points. If triggered, the tightest stop is at a reasonable 7622 points.

To be fair, we’d only expect any real reversal, if below 7622 points. In such a trigger, the visuals suggest an initial 7610 with secondary, if broken, down at 7592 points.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:55:10PM	BRENT	66.98	66.46	66.3		66.07	67.04	67.135		66.68	Success
10:06:34PM	GOLD	1511.79	1506	1502.5		1514	1516	1518.5		1506
10:08:28PM	FTSE	7630.96	7621	7603		7661	7678	7692		7601
10:10:16PM	FRANCE	6023.5	6017	6004.5		6045	6062	6076		6017
10:12:10PM	GERMANY	13297.28	13279	13260		13337	13398	13425.75		13338
10:16:08PM	US500	3236.1	3233	3228		3244	3252	3298		3230
10:18:51PM	DOW	28622	28608	28557.5		28698	28733	28858.5		28608
10:21:05PM	NASDAQ	8763	8744	8721		8794	8817	8854.25		8744
10:23:17PM	JAPAN	23802	23753	23687		23897	23945	24037.5		23788

 

27/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7644 points. Change of 0.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 2,906,900,069 a change of -43.81%

23/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7623 points. Change of 0.54%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,173,556,993 a change of -55.23%

20/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7582 points. Change of 0.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 11,554,966,677 a change of -10.44%

19/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7573 points. Change of 0.44%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 12,902,220,870 a change of 105.17%

18/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7540 points. Change of 0.2%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,288,425,252 a change of -24.93%

17/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7525 points. Change of -100%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,377,255,941 a change of 0%

16/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7519 points. Change of 0%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,678,908,281 a change of 0%

#Gold #Nasdaq #Dax This exercise malarkey is tiring. For instance, during December I’ve worked up, daily, to lifting 2 x 56 pound potato bags, holding them aloft for 2 minutes at a time. This week, the added strain of putting a potato in each bag has proven interesting. Equally, there will be plenty of folk receiving fitness gadgets for Xmas, doubtless monitoring their progress with FitBits extended offerings.

The company share price is proving encouraging in a slovenly way. At present, the share is trading at 6.49 dollars, needing above just 6.65 and we shall regard it as heading to an initial rest stop at 7.66 dollars. Only if exceeded does this become really interesting, due to the “almost” certainty of 9.35 awaiting in the longer term.

We’ve a slight worry at 6.40 dollars, this being the level the share presently needs break below to spoil our wonderful set of calculations. In fact, if we’re honest, anyone considering a “blind” Long just to see where the price goes could consider a stop loss at this level. Below 6.40 allows reversal down to an initial 6 dollars with secondary, if broken, down at 5 dollars. Visually, similar to this writers attempt at weight loss, reversal seems unlikely. But the lethargic price movements, since the share kicked its way through the downtrend at the start of November, justify a slightly raised eyebrow.

Have an enjoyable break. We’ll be back on Sunday evening, probably commenting on a futures market which has fallen asleep!

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:37:05PM	BRENT	65.77	65.06	64.62	64.11	65.68	65.86	66.28	66.36	65.16
10:39:25PM	GOLD	1486.58	1475	1471.625	1466.5	1485	1487	1489.5	1499	1476	‘cess
10:42:18PM	FTSE	7620.2	7554	7519.5	7483	7604	7630	7665	7671	7554	‘cess
10:44:32PM	FRANCE	6026.7	5994	5985.5	5969	6024	6036	6049	6060	5994
10:46:34PM	GERMANY	13298.07	13269	13251.5	13226	13310	13329	13334.75	13363	13277	Shambles
10:48:36PM	US500	3225.4	3221	3218	3214	3228	3231	3238	3245	3219	‘cess
10:51:29PM	DOW	28565.8	28466	28444	28399	28565	28579	28588	28770	28489	Success
10:53:05PM	NASDAQ	8703.05	8684	8674.5	8661	8606	8715	8721	8732	8685
10:54:41PM	JAPAN	23855	23780	23599.5	23416	23932	23890	23909	23952	23780

 

 

23/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7623 points. Change of 0.54%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,173,556,993 a change of -55.23%

20/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7582 points. Change of 0.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 11,554,966,677 a change of -10.44%

19/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7573 points. Change of 0.44%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 12,902,220,870 a change of 105.17%

18/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7540 points. Change of 0.2%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,288,425,252 a change of -24.93%

17/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7525 points. Change of 0.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,377,255,941 a change of -3.48%

16/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7519 points. Change of 2.26%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,678,908,281 a change of -19.58%

13/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7353 points. Change of 1.1%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 10,792,434,555 a change of 97.15%