Author: T&T Staff

Well, this is exciting. Some stuff about the DOW, FTSE, Cable, and GOLD. Plus playing Money for Nothing on accoustic guitar.

 

 

#France #Nasdaq Unable to recall seeing a 9% UP day on the FTSE, intraday traffic certainly deserved some scrutiny. The big surprise came from the FTSE “closing” number of 5446 points. This was a shock because the FTSE actually closed at 5367 with a 7.5% rise. Everything else came from the mystery moment of the day, called “clearing”. For the average punter, even a 7.5% day gives some considerable hope.

Annoying to say, we hadn’t bothered to give any form of rising scenario in our report yesterday, simply due to the UK index needing above 5890 at present to simply suggest the rate of descent has eased. Everything else risks being smoke and mirrors, due to the UK market already triggering serious longer-term droop potentials. However, we shall suspend disbelief and pretend we’re confident further near term rises shall prove viable.

Should the FTSE now continue above 5460 points, an initial 5616 becomes the initial calculation. If exceeded, our secondary works out at 5799 points. As the chart below highlights, the secondary certainly comes close to interfering with the Blue downtrend in the next few days. As always, there’s a fly in the ointment, due to the market already having tripped some pretty major reversal potentials. Our rule of thumb is basic, when rises occur following a drop trigger, we tend believe in our primary targets but expect a rise to fade before the secondary. Only once secondary targets are exceeded does a strong probability present of “bottom” being in.

LISTEN: Our Very First Podcast!

We suspect an attempt is being made to stabilise the markets during this current “House Arrest” phase of Covid-19. To be honest, despite rarely interacting with the outside world, the fact I cannot is already causing frustration.

 

A reverse scenario triggers, should the FTSE wander below 5160 points as reversal to an initial 5095 makes sense. Secondary, if broken, works out at 4977 points.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:33:45PM	BRENT	29.59									‘cess
9:36:44PM	GOLD	1630.02									Success
9:39:07PM	FTSE	5428.99									Success
9:40:28PM	FRANCE	4235	4058	4018.5	3939	4148	4257	4327	4394	4155	Success
10:00:30PM	GERMANY	9658.28									Success
10:02:19PM	US500	2450									‘cess
10:07:08PM	DOW	20743									Success
10:09:12PM	NASDAQ	7570.24	7147	7072	6901	7382	7585	7678	7772	7380	Success
10:11:48PM	JAPAN	19241									Success

24/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5446 points. Change of 9.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,589,991,645 a change of -7.97%

23/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 4993 points. Change of -3.8%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,333,810,024 a change of -32.33%

20/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5190 points. Change of 0.76%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 13,793,008,167 a change of 30.09%

19/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5151 points. Change of 1.4%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 10,602,721,602 a change of 9.14%

18/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5080 points. Change of -4.04%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,714,451,101 a change of 6.42%

17/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5294 points. Change of 2.78%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,128,689,221 a change of -13.38%

16/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5151 points. Change of -4.01%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 10,538,775,450 a change of -6.31%

 

#GOLD #SP500 It’s not often one gets shamed by a fairy but a niece accomplished provided a dose of humiliation. For over a year, we’ve been threatening to produce a “Podcast” and nothing had been done. A niece runs “Princess Parties”, a niche market which has vanished for Covid-19 reasons. Over the weekend, she decided, ‘okay, I’ll do Princess Story Time’, producing an amazingly professional video which is available free on YouTube, completely dressed in character, where she reads children’s stories.

Meanwhile, despite being surrounded by some professional recording studio equipment, the ambition of doing a market podcast had been successfully avoided. In defense, while stories about Princesses and Dragons may entrance children, we’ve always felt a dialogue about future market potentials could prove as interesting as The Shipping Forecast. However, an attempt has been made and our first 10-minute effort – covering Wall St, The FTSE, Gold, and GBPUSD is available at the link below. If it proves popular, we’ll continue them.

Our Very First Podcast!

 

As for the FTSE, Monday proved pretty chaotic. The index was (as usual) forced down at the open, hitting 4940 within the first 4 minutes. Unusually, some surprise recovery was enacted and by noon, the market ignited the rockets. Needless to say, it all fell apart after 30 minutes with the day ending nearly 4% down. The wild swings are proving frustrating, giving sensible Stop Loss Levels for various index scenarios now an almost impossible task. As fairly simple “for instance” comes with the current market position. There’s a heck of an argument favouring reversal to around 4,000 points next.  At time of writing, the FTSE is trading at 4993 points, so we’re postulating nearly 1,000 points of drop. But the trend line (Blue) which delineates the current drop cycle is presently at 5995 points. This suggests a nearly (and impossible) 1,000 point width of stop loss.

It’s almost as if the market knows this. Gone are the days of a 1% day being fairly vibrant for the FTSE. Instead, we are starting to regard 4 & 5 percent days as the norm!

Near term, it feels like weakness below yesterday’s 4922 risks reversal down to 4792 points. If broken, secondary calculates down at 4726 points. The tightest stop works out at 5,110 points. It’s going to be worth remembering, this scenario risks taking the FTSE below the critical 4,900 level. If you want to know what that means, listen to the podcast…

Please, do remember we are speculating on the FTSE during trading hours, not before – or after – hours futures.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:02:15PM	BRENT	29.16									‘cess
10:04:30PM	GOLD	1556	1520	1509.5	1492	1543	1562	1574	1591	1520	Success
10:37:16PM	FTSE	5095									Sorry
10:49:21PM	FRANCE	3920									Success
10:52:11PM	GERMANY	8990									Success
10:53:49PM	US500	2267.64	2184	2124	2034	2296	2394	2441	2528	2227
10:57:29PM	DOW	18915									Success
11:03:20PM	NASDAQ	7112									Success
11:06:16PM	JAPAN	17718

 

23/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 4993 points. Change of -3.8%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,333,810,024 a change of -32.33%

20/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5190 points. Change of 0.76%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 13,793,008,167 a change of 30.09%

19/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5151 points. Change of 1.4%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 10,602,721,602 a change of 9.14%

18/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5080 points. Change of -4.04%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,714,451,101 a change of 6.42%

17/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5294 points. Change of 2.78%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,128,689,221 a change of -13.38%

16/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5151 points. Change of -4.01%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 10,538,775,450 a change of -6.31%

13/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5366 points. Change of 2.46%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 11,248,883,463 a change of 60.84%

 

#Brent #DAX Achieving notoriety, attempting to claim people congregating will not stop Covid-19, was probably ill-advised for the boss of Wetherspoon. Unthinkingly, he put the public in the awful position of agreeing with Piers Morgan, a publicity hungry celeb, who was ridiculing the notion of pubs remaining open.

It did give reason to pause and wonder, just how bad things risk getting for the pub chain which operates nearly 900 outlets. It’s hard to imagine a quick area of diversification for their premises, other than as “pop up” medical care centres! The option of free drinks for those who recover may make it palatable…

 

All joking aside, Wetherspoons share price isn’t looking terribly healthy at present, a state of affairs likely to continue until such time some clarity is available on how long closures shall last. At time of writing, they’re trading around 700p and it looks like weakness below 616p risks further reversal to an initial 383p. If broken, our secondary “BOTTOM” calculation comes in at 181p.

Unlike other shares, we cannot be coy and toss out a number below 181p. This 181p level represents the number we cannot calculate below without presenting values prefaced with minus signs.

 

For any miracle to occur with Wetherspoons share price, it requires to actually CLOSE a session above RED on the chart, presently 775p. In the absence of Covid-19 miracles, it feels like this share price is about to face a bit of a hammering.

 

FTSE – Our daily public glance at the FTSE last week proved popular. We shall probably continue the exercise this week.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:53:09PM	BRENT	28.73	28.1	27.465	25.9	30.3	30.8	31.405	32.5	28.8	Success
9:54:56PM	GOLD	1499.28									‘cess
9:59:04PM	FTSE	5023.26									‘cess
10:02:24PM	FRANCE	3905									Success
10:04:17PM	GERMANY	8612.27	8573	8351	8068	8787	8798	8835.5	8923	8648	‘cess
10:08:27PM	US500	2184.77									‘cess
10:11:55PM	DOW	18225									‘cess
10:15:21PM	NASDAQ	6643.62									Sorry
10:17:54PM	JAPAN	15835									Sorry

 

20/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5190 points. Change of 0.76%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 13,793,008,167 a change of 30.09%

19/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5151 points. Change of 1.4%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 10,602,721,602 a change of 9.14%

18/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5080 points. Change of -4.04%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,714,451,101 a change of 6.42%

17/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5294 points. Change of 2.78%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,128,689,221 a change of -13.38%

16/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5151 points. Change of -4.01%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 10,538,775,450 a change of -6.31%

13/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5366 points. Change of 2.46%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 11,248,883,463 a change of 60.84%

12/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5237 points. Change of -10.87%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,993,953,766 a change of -24.85%

#FTSE #GOLD #Brent This week has been a long month and we’re far from confident things shall relax. We felt victims of a practical joke by the FTSE, thanks to our demand the index exceed 5181 to give a promise of happy times ahead. The day high on Thursday was, of course, 5181 points at 4pm. In case anyone had been drawing trend lines, based on our trigger level, regrettably this number has nothing to do with trends, instead it’s a strength calculation (aka; nerd gibberish)

From our perspective, the immediate market cannot be trusted to give trend lines any particular meaning. The S&P 500 provides an excellent illustration for the state of the markets, the index making an utter joke of any attempt to paint a downtrend, an unrelenting picture of despair as it lost 1,000 points in a month. While the trend line can obviously be nudged around the screen, about the only thing remaining is the word “maybe” if attempting to pick a signal for recovery.

Instead, we prefer our own methods at present, demanding near term calculations be exceeded before daring exhibit any real hope for a bounce. To use a technical term, the market is “pretty insane” currently!

FTSE; Once again, despite the market refusing to exceed our 5181, the visuals give some hope for some near term solace. Above 5181 now looks capable of an initial trivial 5238 with secondary, if exceeded, calculating up at 5309 points. Above 5309 looks like 5388 could follow pretty sharply.

 

The alternate position now is of weakness below 4942 bringing reversal to 4855. If broken, secondary comes along at 4,770 points.

 

There is a quite awful feel to things at present, suggesting we are just experiencing a hiatus on the way down. The FTSE realistically needs trade above BLUE, presently 6,000 points, simply to suggest (pretty firmly) the rate of descent has eased.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:55:35PM	BRENT	29.2	26.5	26.045		28.3	30.52	31.2225		28.9	‘cess
9:57:18PM	GOLD	1471.67	1463.3	1454		1493	1496	1507.75		1472
10:00:22PM	FTSE	5181.52	5082	5024.5		5181	5285	5340.5		5151	Success
10:02:21PM	FRANCE	3819	3685	3644.5		3802	3925	3958		3823	‘cess
10:05:02PM	GERMANY	8538.72	8240	7978		8640	8821	8962.5		8589	Shambles
10:12:22PM	US500	2355.75	2319	2290.5		2434	2467	2498.5		2376
10:14:58PM	DOW	19756	18959	18572.5		19654	20505	20787		20010
10:16:39PM	NASDAQ	7221.57	6890	6788		7270	7520	7721		7242	‘cess
10:31:00PM	JAPAN	17210	16684	16242.5		17170	17792	18047.25		17120	Success

 

 

19/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5151 points. Change of 1.4%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 10,602,721,602 a change of 9.14%

18/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5080 points. Change of -4.04%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,714,451,101 a change of 6.42%

17/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5294 points. Change of 2.78%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,128,689,221 a change of -13.38%

16/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5151 points. Change of -4.01%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 10,538,775,450 a change of -6.31%

13/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5366 points. Change of 2.46%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 11,248,883,463 a change of 60.84%

12/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5237 points. Change of -10.87%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,993,953,766 a change of -24.85%

11/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5876 points. Change of -1.41%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,307,244,216 a change of -11.98%

 

#Gold #SP500 #FTSE A few financial journos have been suggesting the stock markets close during this time of crisis. Needless to say, there’s an opposing viewpoint but the funny thing is, they’re both probably correct. During the last crash, we’d naively written for trading in banking shares to be suspended until such time the markets stabilised in the years ahead. This enlightened attitude may have been something to do with 1/4 million shares in RBS and watching life savings going on a prolonged holiday!

The “funny” thing, when RBS hit 9.8p in March 2009, rather a few folk pounced, doubtless believing the 10p level was certain to provide a reasonable bounce. This supposition proved correct. Until now! With RBS hitting 125p on the 18th March (let’s be honest, it’s really 12.5p) we’re not entirely confident of a bounce appearing. We remain trapped in the bank, thankfully our overall shareholding now reduced to less eye-watering, loss-making, levels.

As for the stock market, the day to close the markets was 6th March. On that day, the FTSE closed below the uptrend since 2009, achieving a lower low. To us, this was a bad thing.

But crucially, the closure could not be justified unless one was pretty confident in what was coming next, the good old “time machine” scenario. Needless to say, we had a report published on the 6th (link), one which has proven rather concise in the 2 weeks since. Unfortunately, despite being proven correct in our reversal scenario, we’re uncomfortable with any “shut the markets” philosophy unless it’s introduced with precise criteria to justify re-opening. In addition, a policy of market closures would need equal safeguards for sudden, unprecedented, rise in the markets.

For instance, what if a cure for Covid-19 were announced, something cheap which could simply be added to drinking water. Or preferably whisky!

The next day, the markets would move faster than someone with a dodgy immune system, hearing a distant cough…

As for the FTSE near term, some very slight hope feels possible, the FTSE ‘only’ needing to exceed 5181 to enter a cycle to an initially 5245 points with secondary, if exceeded, calculating at 5323 points.  We’re less than confident with this scenario, thanks to the minute by minute chart below. As shown, since 6th March, the UK index has adhered to a fairly firm pace of reversal below Blue. Only with a fairly solid chunk of movement above this trend will we dare raise an eyebrow.

Should the more recent pattern of misery repeat, now below 5006 points looks very capable of reversal to 4863 with secondary, when broken, at 4780 points.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:34:58PM	BRENT	27.42									Success
9:36:57PM	GOLD	1486.73	1472	1452.5	1419	1504	1522	1554	1589	1504
9:39:39PM	FTSE	5079
9:42:38PM	FRANCE	3765.8									‘cess
9:45:27PM	GERMANY	8449									‘cess
9:56:14PM	US500	2391	2271	2221.5	2059	2420	2460	2478	2547	2361	Success
10:07:35PM	DOW	20079									Success
10:09:45PM	NASDAQ	7150									Success
10:12:13PM	JAPAN	16513

18/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5080 points. Change of -4.04%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,714,451,101 a change of 6.42%

17/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5294 points. Change of 2.78%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,128,689,221 a change of -13.38%

16/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5151 points. Change of -4.01%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 10,538,775,450 a change of -6.31%

13/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5366 points. Change of 2.46%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 11,248,883,463 a change of 60.84%

12/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5237 points. Change of -10.87%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,993,953,766 a change of -24.85%

11/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5876 points. Change of -1.41%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,307,244,216 a change of -11.98%

10/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5960 points. Change of -0.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 10,574,130,773 a change of -8.51%

 

#France #Nasdaq Concealing a fart with a cough! The converse has become a social necessity, giving a brilliant mental image of a packed elevator providing a gastric symphony, office workers trying to disguise even the slightest cough, returning to the office from a smoking break…

Self-isolation, Day Two, proved remarkably laid back. As someone who utterly detests frivolous medication, a suggestion of Lemsip, along with a dollop of Honey, to tackle my common cold was tried. Surprisingly, it dried the dripping part of the cold, eased the sore throat, and perhaps eased the cough. But more importantly, the popular cold remedy knocked me for a six. Aside from monitoring the markets opening in the morning, normal mental activity did not resume until lunchtime.

 

So, did the UK Chancellor just fart in an elevator?

For most watching, his speech at first appeared enthralling, finally, Westminster starting to taking things seriously. As he expanded, the level of commitment left this viewer wondering just how bad things are going to get. It’s one thing making a solid attempt to “protect the markets” but what if the country emerges with a workforce without jobs, multiple businesses opting to take the safe route and just close down. Will the UK Govt find themselves taking utilities/airlines back into public ownership, simply by issuing loans in exchange for equity?

 

Firstly, something glaringly obvious we keep forgetting to point out. In these volatile times, the FTSE continues to experience some sort of spike at the open. Usually (but NOT always), a spike will provoke a day traveling in the opposite direction. Our rule of thumb, if the height (or depth) of a spike is exceeded within the first hour, expect the worst. Thus, if the market is spiked UP at the open yet the value drops below the opening value of trade, expect a drop. Conversely, if a market is spiked DOWN at the open, the opposite will generally prove true. And like all rules, it will sometimes be broken without warning.

From the point at which the FTSE closed Tuesday, very little is required to provoke some upward travel on Wednesday. Moves now above 5300 should prove capable of an initial 5349 points. If exceeded, life gets interesting as secondary calculates at 5511 points, along with the hope the market has not perceived the chancellor as farting in an elevator.

The UK index needs below 4977 to give some real concern for the near term, calculating with an initial risk of reversal to 4792 points with secondary, when broken, down at a more painful 4480 points.

 

As always, we are discussing The FTSE, not after hours futures…

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:31:17PM	BRENT	29.66
9:35:35PM	GOLD	1529.07									Shambles
9:37:53PM	FTSE	5259.72									‘cess
9:46:33PM	FRANCE	3959	3754	3678.5	3564	3922	4025	4127.5	4296	3900	‘cess
10:12:27PM	GERMANY	8882									‘cess
10:15:18PM	US500	2484.67									Success
10:20:34PM	DOW	20926
10:22:49PM	NASDAQ	7329	7228	7147	7011	7417	7510	7593.5	7688	7283	Success
10:24:49PM	JAPAN	17186

17/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5294 points. Change of 2.78%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,128,689,221 a change of -13.38%

16/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5151 points. Change of -4.01%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 10,538,775,450 a change of -6.31%

13/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5366 points. Change of 2.46%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 11,248,883,463 a change of 60.84%

12/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5237 points. Change of -10.87%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,993,953,766 a change of -24.85%

11/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5876 points. Change of -1.41%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,307,244,216 a change of -11.98%

10/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5960 points. Change of -0.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 10,574,130,773 a change of -8.51%

9/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5965 points. Change of -7.55%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 11,557,885,051 a change of 24.01%