Marks and Spencer Group Plc (LSE:MKS), currently trading around 440.7p.
M&S’s interim results were warmly received by the market, with its share price seemingly positioning itself for another attempt at higher ground. The headline figure attracting considerable attention was food sales growth of 13.9%. Impressive at first glance, although we cannot help wondering how much of this apparent growth owes itself to the rather eye-watering price increases across the food aisles.
After all, sales growth and genuine volume growth are two rather different animals. Without accounting for inflation and pricing, that impressive 13.9% may tell a rather less exciting story than the market appears willing to believe. Perhaps the real growth is somewhat less spectacular than the headline suggests!
Mind you, our own interest in supermarket food pricing is somewhat less sophisticated. It largely revolves around the price of granulated sugar, thanks to our wine-making hobby.
Morrisons remains our supermarket of choice, with a 5kg bag of granulated sugar currently costing £5.35. Even the discounters, Aldi and Lidl, struggle to better this. Better still, the 5kg bag happens to be exactly what is required for one of our 20-litre fermentation runs at 36.8°C, avoiding the usual weighing exercises and inevitable sugar spillages.
My wife, meanwhile, was conducting one of her periodic investigations into just how much this hobby actually costs. Naturally, the subject of yeast came up, along with the obvious question of whether I had compared supermarket prices.
This opened an entirely unexpected can of worms.
Where does yeast actually come from? A quick Google investigation produced a rather surprising answer: wild yeast can be found growing naturally on trees, with certain varieties associated with the bark of old oak trees.
And here comes the coincidence. We happen to have two rather elderly oak trees surviving on the cliff at the top of our garden.
Curiosity, as it so often does, took over. There is little financial incentive to produce our own yeast, given its relatively modest supermarket price. However, a fascinating trawl through fermentation discussions on Reddit revealed something rather more interesting. Home yeast enthusiasts frequently report results they consider superior to those achieved with commercially produced varieties.
It seems rather daft to ignore a potentially useful resource sitting practically on our doorstep. Consequently, we may soon be embarking on a little amateur yeast farming. Whether the eventual results end up in homemade wine or gluten-free bread remains to be seen. Either way, we shall hopefully have something interesting to report in a few months.
One does have to wonder why Jeremy Clarkson, the self-appointed King of Farming (and pubs), hasn’t yet made a feature of locally sourced yeast in his brewing adventures!
Back to the business of M&S shares.
The share price is now exploring territory not seen since the beginning of 2016 and, perhaps more importantly, appears to have broken free from the rather tiresome price malaise that has characterised much of the period since 2024.
This is potentially significant. We are beginning to see the sort of price behaviour that could signal a much more constructive longer-term trend. Whether the market can maintain its enthusiasm is, of course, another matter entirely.
Our Positive LSE:MKS Scenario
A move above 448p would provide the first encouraging signal, with our calculations suggesting an initial upside target of 457p.
Should the share price overcome this level, the longer-term secondary objective comes into view at a considerably more ambitious 514p.
Looking at the bigger picture, the current price position is particularly interesting. Our analysis suggests that the shares are operating within a zone where 552p could eventually exert a considerable gravitational pull.
For the moment, maintaining a position above 394p is important to preserving the optimism surrounding the current cycle.
Our Negative LSE:MKS Scenario
A share price CLOSURE below 394p would introduce a distinctly less comfortable situation.
Our calculations then suggest an initial downside objective of 360p. Should this level subsequently fail, the secondary target comes into play at 305p.
Interestingly, the latter level could also provide an opportunity for a substantial bounce, although getting there would hardly be an enjoyable experience for existing shareholders!
Even trading below 394p, without an actual closing breach, would be sufficient to introduce a considerable degree of nervousness.
And in Summary?
M&S appears to be enjoying a rather welcome change in fortune, and the technical picture is certainly more encouraging than it has been for some time.
Our preferred scenario remains upward, with 448p the level to watch and 514p providing a considerably more interesting destination should momentum develop.
Of course, markets have an unfortunate habit of making fools of the most confident predictions. So, while upward travel currently looks the more attractive proposition, perhaps it wouldn’t hurt to invest in the odd lucky rabbit’s foot.
After all, a little technical analysis, a spot of optimism and a dash of good fortune have never hurt anyone.
And if the share doesn’t deliver, at least we might end up with some rather interesting homemade yeast!
FUTURES
FUTURES
| Time Issued | Market | Price At Issue | Short Entry | Fast Exit | Slow Exit | Stop | Long Entry | Fast Exit | Slow Exit | Stop | Prior |
| 10:41:55PM | BRENT | 9359.9 | 9251 | 8782 | 7919 | 10050 | 10062 | 10450 | 10850 | 9908 | Success |
| 10:45:08PM | GOLD | 4060.51 | 4015 | 3998 | 3974 | 4052 | 4070 | 4074 | 4123 | 4031 | |
| 10:47:37PM | FTSE | 10904.7 | 10814 | 10793 | 10756 | 10855 | 10912 | 10925 | 11063 | 10863 | Success |
| 10:52:45PM | STOX50 | 6313.5 | 6237 | 6209 | 6174 | 6270 | 6315 | 6331 | 6394 | 6242 | |
| 10:56:47PM | GERMANY | 26659.7 | 26200 | 26012 | 25792 | 26406 | 26670 | 26752 | 26991 | 26533 | Success |
| 10:59:19PM | US500 | 7705.2 | 7620 | 7577 | 7531 | 7662 | 7717 | 7721 | 7807 | 7684 | Success |
| 11:13:30PM | DOW | 53454.4 | 52782 | 52353 | 51823 | 53054 | 53481 | 53751 | 54565 | 53246 | Success |
| 11:17:55PM | NASDAQ | 28461.05 | 28128 | 27892 | 27645 | 28358 | 28735 | 28877 | 29074 | 28497 | Success |
| 11:21:54PM | JAPAN | 62954 | 62528 | 62367 | 61997 | 63036 | 63476 | 64712 | 66276 | 63120 |
SUCCESS above means both FAST & SLOW targets were met. ‘CESS means just the FAST target met and probably the next time it is exceeded, movement to the SLOW target shall commence.
Our commentary is in two sections. Immediately below are today’s updated comments. If our commentary remains valid, the share can be found in the bottom section which has a RED heading. Hopefully, this will mean you no longer need to flip back through previous reports. HYPERLINKS DISABLED IN THIS VERSION
Please remember, all prices are mid-price (halfway between the Buy and Sell). When we refer to a price CLOSING above a specific level, we are viewing the point where we can regard a trend as changing. Otherwise, we are simply speculating on near term trading targets. Our website is www.trendsandtargets.com.
UPDATE. We often give an initial and a secondary price. If the initial is exceeded, we still expect it to fall back but the next time the initial is bettered, the price should continue to the secondary. The converse it true with price drops.
We can be contacted at info@trendsandtargets.com. Spam filters set to maximum so only legit emails get through…
Section One – Outlook Updated Today. Click here for Section Two – Outlook Remains Valid shares
Click Epic to jump to share: LSE:AV. Aviva** **LSE:BT.A British Telecom** **LSE:EXPN Experian** **LSE:EZJ EasyJet** **LSE:MKS Marks and Spencer** **LSE:NG. National Glib** **LSE:TSCO Tesco** **
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Updated charts published on : Aviva, British Telecom, Experian, EasyJet, Marks and Spencer, National Glib, Tesco,
LSE:AV. Aviva. Close Mid-Price: 747.6 Percentage Change: + 0.00% Day High: 747.8 Day Low: 730.4
Target met. Further movement against Aviva ABOVE 747.8 should improve acc ……..
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View Previous Aviva & Big Picture ***
LSE:BT.A British Telecom. Close Mid-Price: 231.6 Percentage Change: + 0.00% Day High: 231.8 Day Low: 222.1
If the price of British Telecom manages to move ABOVE 231.8, initial UP t ……..
</p
View Previous British Telecom & Big Picture ***
LSE:EXPN Experian. Close Mid-Price: 3095 Percentage Change: + 0.00% Day High: 3133 Day Low: 2971
The next task for Experian is to get the price above 3133 (not with a fak ……..
</p
View Previous Experian & Big Picture ***
LSE:EZJ EasyJet. Close Mid-Price: 688.6 Percentage Change: + 0.00% Day High: 688.6 Day Low: 680
Simply managing to get the share price above 688.6 is the next hurdle for ……..
</p
View Previous EasyJet & Big Picture ***
LSE:MKS Marks and Spencer. Close Mid-Price: 440.7 Percentage Change: + 0.00% Day High: 447.3 Day Low: 402
Target met. All Marks and Spencer needs are mid-price trades ABOVE 447.3 ……..
</p
View Previous Marks and Spencer & Big Picture ***
LSE:NG. National Glib. Close Mid-Price: 1265 Percentage Change: + 0.00% Day High: 1265 Day Low: 1237
All National Glib needs are mid-price trades ABOVE 1265 to improve accele ……..
</p
View Previous National Glib & Big Picture ***
LSE:TSCO Tesco. Close Mid-Price: 553.4 Percentage Change: + 0.00% Day High: 555.8 Day Low: 535.6
Target met. In the event of TSCO share price managing to exceed 555.8 (pl ……..
</p
View Previous Tesco & Big Picture ***
*** End of “Updated Today” comments on shares. Listed below are those where commentary remains valid.
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Many thanks for taking the time to read this and good luck for today. Please feel free to mention us after something goes right!