Revolution!
Someone once wrote that society is only three square meals away from revolution. It was probably the science-fiction author Larry Niven, although the attribution is perhaps less important than the sentiment.
It occurs to us that the recent initiatives by several countries, encouraging their populations to keep at least three days’ worth of food and water in reserve, might actually be rather clever. Should everything go horribly wrong, politicians have effectively bought themselves a three-day head start before the public wakes up, starts asking awkward questions and begins looking for suitable culprits to line up against “the wall”.
Perhaps that’s a daft idea, but as the President of Brazil has just demonstrated, having an exit strategy isn’t necessarily the worst idea in the world. Mind you, the USA might prove a rather challenging place to disappear into for the longer term. His successful escape could also become an interesting bargaining chip, should the USA decide it wants more Brazil nuts or perhaps a few exotic haircuts in exotic locations…
Heck, it’s Friday and we’re allowed to be whimsical, particularly on the eve of the Mexican Grand Prix, which is often one of the better races of the season. Hopefully, it’ll rain!
The FTSE: A Market in Search of Direction?
As for the FTSE, we’re somewhat confused.
Until October 19th, the index had been behaving with a reasonable degree of logic. Since then, however, things have become decidedly messy.
Normally, the run-up to a UK financial suicide note (otherwise known as The Budget) brings a degree of volatility, depending largely on which snippets of information are being leaked and when. This particular Budget, though, has been something of a circus. The sheer volume of information being released had us wondering whether the event had somehow been brought forward to Tuesday!
Even the ever-popular internet personality, The BlackbeltBarrister, felt compelled to release a YouTube video expressing his frustration with proceedings. It’s easy to forget that his interests extend beyond the BBC Licence Fee and police incompetence!
What’s particularly interesting is that the FTSE has lacked the sort of volatility we would normally associate with a UK Budget. Traditionally, the day after the announcement can be especially interesting, once investors have had time to digest the small print and discover what the Chancellor really meant.
This time around, the market seems to have barely reacted. Then again, perhaps it did and nobody noticed!
With the USA experiencing some reversals following disappointing earnings reports, the UK market has largely refused to follow suit. Thursday, in particular, proved resolutely positive for the FTSE.
Could there be a little more underlying strength in the UK market than we’ve been giving it credit for?
FTSE: The Levels That Matter
From a near-term perspective, a move above 10,775 should apparently trigger an initial advance towards 10,831, with our secondary target, should that level be bettered, calculating at 10,895 points.
Should the upside scenario trigger, the tightest sensible stop-loss level appears to be 10,720.
Our alternative scenario, for those who prefer to contemplate the less cheerful possibilities, requires the FTSE to move below 10,720 before any meaningful reversal gets underway. This could initially trigger a move towards 10,696, with our secondary target, should that level be broken, sitting at 10,670 points.
Admittedly, this isn’t the most spectacular haul of points, but the relatively modest potential reward is reflected in a tight stop around 10,745.
As always, these are conditional scenarios rather than predictions. The market gets the final say, regardless of what we might like it to do!
Have a Good Weekend!
Enjoy the race. We’ve done our bit towards national resilience and stocked up on three days’ worth of whisky, together with a box of Crunchies and another of Galaxy Minstrels, our current guilty secret.
That’s us sorted if the power goes off.
Although, on reflection, three days might not be quite enough whisky…
FUTURES
FUTURES
| Time Issued | Market | Price At Issue | Short Entry | Fast Exit | Slow Exit | Stop | Long Entry | Fast Exit | Slow Exit | Stop | Prior |
| 10:00:46PM | BRENT | 11103.7 | 10856 | 10797 | 11020 | 11134 | 11189 | 11030 | Shambles | ||
| 10:05:10PM | GOLD | 4025.02 | 4005 | 3990 | 4026 | 4038 | 4049 | 4016 | |||
| 10:08:01PM | FTSE | 10733.7 | 10709 | 10697 | 10737 | 10775 | 10816 | 10722 | |||
| 10:18:10PM | STOX50 | 6197.8 | 6143 | 6107 | 6182 | 6226 | 6277 | 6192 | |||
| 10:21:01PM | GERMANY | 26072.8 | 25668 | 25455 | 25798 | 26140 | 26240 | 25979 | |||
| 10:24:09PM | US500 | 7670.3 | 7668 | 7647 | 7690 | 7723 | 7744 | 7693 | ‘cess | ||
| 10:27:11PM | DOW | 52313.9 | 52132 | 51910 | 52333 | 52460 | 52566 | 52253 | Shambles | ||
| 10:32:28PM | NASDAQ | 28965.5 | 28960 | 28703 | 29025 | 29437 | 29631 | 29246 | Success | ||
| 10:34:32PM | JAPAN | 63755 | 63728 | 63225 | No sane | ideas |
SUCCESS above means both FAST & SLOW targets were met. ‘CESS means just the FAST target met and probably the next time it is exceeded, movement to the SLOW target shall commence.
Our commentary is in two sections. Immediately below are today’s updated comments. If our commentary remains valid, the share can be found in the bottom section which has a RED heading. Hopefully, this will mean you no longer need to flip back through previous reports. HYPERLINKS DISABLED IN THIS VERSION
Please remember, all prices are mid-price (halfway between the Buy and Sell). When we refer to a price CLOSING above a specific level, we are viewing the point where we can regard a trend as changing. Otherwise, we are simply speculating on near term trading targets. Our website is www.trendsandtargets.com.
UPDATE. We often give an initial and a secondary price. If the initial is exceeded, we still expect it to fall back but the next time the initial is bettered, the price should continue to the secondary. The converse it true with price drops.
We can be contacted at info@trendsandtargets.com. Spam filters set to maximum so only legit emails get through…
Section One – Outlook Updated Today. Click here for Section Two – Outlook Remains Valid shares
Click Epic to jump to share: LSE:BT.A British Telecom** **LSE:ITRK Intertek** **LSE:NG. National Glib** **LSE:SAGA SAGA Plc** **LSE:SRP Serco** **
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Updated charts published on : British Telecom, Intertek, National Glib, SAGA Plc, Serco,
LSE:BT.A British Telecom. Close Mid-Price: 213.4 Percentage Change: + 0.00% Day High: 215.2 Day Low: 212.7
Target met. Continued trades against BT.A with a mid-price ABOVE 215.2 sh ……..
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View Previous British Telecom & Big Picture ***
LSE:ITRK Intertek. Close Mid-Price: 5925 Percentage Change: + 0.00% Day High: 5930 Day Low: 5920
The next task for Intertek is to get the price above 5,930 (not with a fa ……..
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View Previous Intertek & Big Picture ***
LSE:NG. National Glib. Close Mid-Price: 1260 Percentage Change: + 0.00% Day High: 1263.5 Day Low: 1236.5
Target met. Further movement against National Glib ABOVE 1263.5 should im ……..
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View Previous National Glib & Big Picture ***
LSE:SAGA SAGA Plc. Close Mid-Price: 896 Percentage Change: + 0.00% Day High: 903 Day Low: 837
Target met. If the price of SAGA Plc manages to move ABOVE 903, initial U ……..
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View Previous SAGA Plc & Big Picture ***
LSE:SRP Serco. Close Mid-Price: 291.2 Percentage Change: + 0.00% Day High: 292.8 Day Low: 286.8
Further movement against Serco ABOVE 292.8 should improve acceleration to ……..
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View Previous Serco & Big Picture ***
*** End of “Updated Today” comments on shares. Listed below are those where commentary remains valid.
Click Epic to jump to share:LSE:AAL Anglo American** **LSE:AML Aston Martin** **LSE:ASC Asos** **LSE:AV. Aviva** **LSE:AVCT Avacta** **LSE:AZN Astrazeneca** **LSE:BARC Barclays** **LSE:BBY BALFOUR BEATTY** **LSE:BLOE Block Energy PLC** **LSE:BME B & M** **LSE:BP. BP PLC** **LSE:CAR Carclo** **LSE:CNA Centrica** **LSE:CPI Capita** **LSE:DGE Diageo** **LSE:ECO ECO (Atlantic) O & G** **LSE:EMG MAN** **LSE:EXPN Experian** **LSE:EZJ EasyJet** **LSE:FGP Firstgroup** **LSE:FOXT Foxtons** **LSE:FRES Fresnillo** **LSE:GENL Genel** **LSE:GKP Gulf Keystone** **LSE:GLEN Glencore Xstra** **LSE:GRG Greggs** **LSE:HIK Hikma** **LSE:HSBA HSBC** **LSE:IAG British Airways** **LSE:IGG IG Group** **LSE:IQE IQE** **LSE:ITM ITM Power** **LSE:ITV ITV** **LSE:LLOY Lloyds Grp.** **LSE:MKS Marks and Spencer** **LSE:MRO Melrose** **LSE:NWG Natwest** **LSE:OCDO Ocado Plc** **LSE:ONT Oxford Nanopore Tech** **LSE:OXIG Oxford Instruments** **LSE:PHP Primary Health** **LSE:PMG Parkmead** **LSE:QED Quadrise** **LSE:RKH Rockhopper** **LSE:RR. Rolls Royce** **LSE:SBRY Sainsbury** **LSE:SCLP Scancell** **LSE:SDY Speedyhire** **LSE:SFOR S4 Capital** **LSE:SMT Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust** **LSE:SPX Spirax** **LSE:STAN Standard Chartered** **LSE:STAR Star Energy** **LSE:TERN Tern Plc** **LSE:TLW Tullow** **LSE:TRN The Trainline** **LSE:TSCO Tesco** **LSE:TW. Taylor Wimpey** **LSE:VOD Vodafone** **LSE:ZOO Zoo Digital** **
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Many thanks for taking the time to read this and good luck for today. Please feel free to mention us after something goes right!