DRAX for 9/05/2019

#France #Nasdaq We’re not jumping on the Marvels Avengers bandwagon, despite one of their characters being ‘Drax’. A Google search for ‘Drax’ did turn up the bonkers statistic shown below. Just 15 ships produce more pollution than ALL cars, worldwide, but instead, people protest Drax providing wood pellets for fires! As for Drax’ share price…

We last reviewed DRAX in August last year (link here) and pleasingly, it achieved our initial growth target. What happened was quite strange. We’d written a target of 403 in the report, yet the published chart cheerfully gave the target at 423p. Despite both the erroneous 403 AND the correct 423 being attained, our often repeated insistence a share price actually close above a target level was highlighted clearly, when reviewing the Candles vs Closing Price charts. Unfortunately, in this instance, we got it a little wrong as despite the price actually closing 4p above our target level on two occasions, the price has reversed more than we would like.

However, a glance at the bigger picture tends indicate the threat of reversal should not prove too devastating. The immediate situation is of weakness below 322p opening the gates which permit reversal down to 263p. We would anticipate a bounce, should such a level appear. An initial ambition, doubtless a longer term one, calculates at 392p. If bettered – definitely with closure above, our secondary is at 564p eventually.

There’s the risk of a real problem, if the price somehow winds its way below 263p. Our secondary, challenging the long term uptrend, calculates at 236p. In itself, this isn’t great visual problem but unfortunately, 236p making an appearance totally fouls our upward target calculations and risks the share price becoming range-bound for a while.

For now, our suspicion is of this proving worth watching for 263p eventually making an appearance.

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

9:03:08PM

BRENT

70.03

               

9:06:01PM

GOLD

1280.81

               

Success

9:09:31PM

FTSE

7287.18

               

‘cess

9:25:00PM

FRANCE

5415.2

5364

5345

5289

5452

5431

5441

5467

5375

9:26:53PM

GERMANY

12216.87

               

Success

9:29:24PM

US500

2887.17

               

9:31:42PM

DOW

26052.4

               

Shambles

9:34:09PM

NASDAQ

7634.37

7590

7567.5

7530

7670

7687

7711

7758

7605

Shambles

9:37:48PM

JAPAN

21525

               

8/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7271 points. Change of 0.15%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,685,988,322 a change of -11.16%

Domino’s Pizza for 8/05/2019

#Gold #SP500 The very existence of these complex ‘toast & cheese’ outlets remains a constant puzzle*. So it came as no surprise to see their share price experience a bit of a calamity this year, presumably due to European foodstuffs being off the Brexit menu? Who knows but despite recovery during the session, the 7th May witnessed the market driving the pizza price down.

Domino’s share price opened at 233p, down from a closing price of 260p before the bank holiday weekend. Despite a miracle recovery during the session, we were not entirely convinced as the market had NOT spiked the price down at the open, instead opting to gap (manipulate) the share down by 27p, virtually 10% of its value. Though Domino’s eventually closed the day at 254p, down just 1.46%, we’ve a strong suspicion the market wants Domino’s price to reverse.

The immediate situation suggests traffic below 229 should lead to an initial 213p and a probably short lived bounce. If this target level is broken on the initial surge, our secondary calculates at 182p, hopefully with the chance of a longer term real bounce. Unfortunately, reversal such as this will take the price into a region where negative news could easily drive the price down to 122p.

As the chart highlights, the price has proven rather resilient in its relationship to the longer term RED uptrend. This complex series of movements now means we require the share to exceed 288p to convince it’s breaking trend and heading upward. In such an event, our initial calculation is at 311p with secondary, if bettered, a more useful 341p.

Unfortunately, for now, we suspect it’s going to head to 182p as the next major point of interest.

* As someone who’s gluten intolerant, I cannot eat pizza!

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

10:00:15PM

BRENT

69.6

               

10:09:36PM

GOLD

1284.5

1279

1277

1274

1284

1285

1287.5

1291

1278

10:12:39PM

FTSE

7251.03

               

Success

10:17:02PM

FRANCE

5380

               

‘cess

10:21:23PM

GERMANY

12081.58

               

Success

10:23:37PM

US500

2890.97

2861

2850

2839

2890

2895

2904.5

2919

2865

‘cess

10:27:28PM

DOW

26000.9

               

10:30:50PM

NASDAQ

7660.62

               

‘cess

10:34:16PM

JAPAN

21665

               

Success

 

7/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7260 points. Change of -1.63%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,525,956,733 a change of 41.46%

UK Pound v The Euro for 7/05/2019

We last reviewed #GBPEUR back in February, (link here) successfully calculating a target level which has now been achieved. With such levels of political uncertainty, coupled with what often appears wilful political incompetence, we quite genuinely had doubts as to anything actually happening. #BRENT

Now, with the ball kicked down the beach for a while, the calculation allowing for 1.20 next remains valid but the pairing really needs move beyond 1.1810 to give a suspicion the next leg up is beginning. Unfortunately, rather than 1.20, we suspect a future rise shall stall first around 1.1925 before heading to the 1.20 level and an almost certain glass ceiling.

Only once the relationship actually closes above 1.20 shall we dare sing the virtues of 1.240 and beyond.

If trouble is coming, the pair requires weaken below 1.15 to indicate coming travel down to 1.1285. In itself, this is not a particularly scary movement but the real danger shall appear if they close a session below 1.128. Such a scenario runs the risk of triggering reversal to 1.08 initially. This takes the pairing into a zone where 1.03, perhaps even parity, becomes very possible.

For now though, there is considerable hope we shall see moves in the future beyond 1.181, once again strengthening the pound  (to the surprise of everyone!)

FUTURES

3/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7380 points. Change of 0.39%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,320,179,357 a change of -4.47%
FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

9:34:42PM

BRENT

71.38

69.95

68.78

66.75

71.65

71.63

72.055

73.19

70

Success

9:45:54PM

GOLD

1280.49

               

Success

9:47:28PM

FTSE

7398.86

               

9:49:58PM

FRANCE

5503.7

               

9:53:25PM

GERMANY

12328.98

12217

12167.5

12070

12257

12340

12441.75

12486

12240

‘cess

9:56:46PM

US500

2932.37

               

‘cess

9:59:02PM

DOW

26449.7

               

10:00:58PM

NASDAQ

7777

               

10:03:13PM

JAPAN

22089

               

FTSE for Friday 3/05/2019

FTSE for FRIDAY #SP500 #NK225 For the first time ever, visitor numbers from the USA exceeded visitors from the UK. In fact, the surge in USA visitors exceeded the rest of the world combined! It was quite amazing witnessing what happens, when a couple of our reports were referenced in New York. But Reunion Island visitors still feature, giving a weekly “wish I was there” boost to travel ambitions.

As for the FTSE for Friday, a glance at the bigger picture reveals something fairly alarming. During April, the UK market exceeded the downtrend for the last 12 months, flounced around but failed achieve escape velocity, and now has retreated below the BLUE trend. In addition, the FTSE has broken the immediate RED uptrend for 2019.

In plain English, we’re not optimistic as the UK index requires exceed 7433 to regain confidence!

If taking a shot in the dark SHORT position, betting on our political leaders competence, this affords a “fairly reasonable” stop loss level, given the UK closed Thursday at 7351 points.

Near term, it appears alarm bells will be justified, if the FTSE trades below 7338 points as reversal to an initial 7311 makes sense. If broken, our secondary calculates at 7240, a point at which we’d hope for a bounce. We’d be remiss if we failed to point out the FTSE is once again trading in a region where 6750 makes sense for the longer term.

It’s always difficult to be confident about Long potentials, when a market has entered a reversal phase. Often, despite triggers being met, a share will only achieve our initial “safe” target with any rise withering before the secondary target level. At present, the FTSE requires above 7395 to indicate miracle recovery to 7433 points initially (insufficient to escape the drop cycle). If bettered, secondary is at 7502 and visually quite believable.

Have a good holiday weekend.

FUTURES

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

9:57:51PM

BRENT

70.35

               

Success

10:13:38PM

GOLD

1270.8

               

Success

10:15:19PM

FTSE

7345.41

               

10:19:19PM

FRANCE

5536

               

‘cess

10:20:55PM

GERMANY

12328.44

               

‘cess

10:23:13PM

US500

2917.97

2897

2888

2876

2925

2931

2939

2953

2904

‘cess

10:25:28PM

DOW

26302

               

‘cess

10:27:48PM

NASDAQ

7726.82

               

‘cess

10:29:27PM

JAPAN

22296

22147

22077

21945

22358

22388

22464

22562

22218

2/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7351 points. Change of -0.46%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,569,031,363 a change of 41%

T&T for 2/05/2019

Tableau Software (NYSE:DATA) #DAX #DJI This one’s a bit of an oddball and they’re to release their results after the business close on the 2nd. The reason for its “oddball” status comes from Google website adverts. For some reason, we are bombarded with promotional material for Tableau with Google often allocating all advertising space on a webpage toward this company.











Of course, it’s doubtless caused by our “cookie cache” which reflects website preferences.

To get the good news out of the way first, it shall prove interesting if the share next trades above 126. Such a movement has surprising potentials, opening the door for a visit to 137 next. If bettered, secondary calculates as a longer term 154. In fact, it appears even 168 may be dreamt of for the future, this being a level we’d expect some major hesitation.

The reason for such vivid rise potentials occurred during March with the share price achieving a series of “higher highs”. From our perspective, the 137 level was mathematically correct and now, a revisit to such a point which proves capable of exceeding 137 should bring some sharp growth thereafter.

As often the case, there’s a fly in the burgandy.

The two chart insets highlight a particular phenomena. Despite traders clearly showing some enthusiasm during the pre-results-day session, exquisite care was used to ensure the price did not close the session above the immediate downtrend. This sort of nonsense is always a worry, carrying the implication the market knows something.

We’d certainly have some serious concerns if the price is pushed below 115 for any reason as this threatens a visit to an initial 108. If broken, secondary comes along at 104, along with a challenge of the ruling uptrend since 2017.

We would expect a bounce, should 104 be achieved.

Quite a few emails are being received, asking for updates on USA shares. We suspect the reason is due to many European movements simply not making sense due to politics.

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

10:43:17PM

BRENT

72.05

               

10:45:30PM

GOLD

1276.74

               

‘cess

10:48:17PM

FTSE

7327.25

               

Success

10:49:58PM

FRANCE

5595

               

10:51:29PM

GERMANY

12370.49

12276

12251

12209

12353

12377

12390

12432

12293

10:54:22PM

US500

2915.17

               

‘cess

10:59:31PM

DOW

26375

26347

26268

26122

26466

26465

26524

26585

26347

Sorry

11:02:58PM

NASDAQ

7724.9

               

‘cess

11:10:36PM

JAPAN

22163

               

‘cess

1/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7385 points. Change of -0.44%.

Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,949,801,557 a change of -35.7%

Barclays for 1/05/2019

Barclays (LSE:BARC) #FTSE #SP500 We’re tempted to tear up our rule book against the retail banks. Despite bank shares pretending to be interesting, share prices have backed themselves into a corner, resulting in a situation where either sharp reversal shall be required or, more probably, logical trends broken but prices becoming rangebound.

This was also our conclusion the other day, when reviewing Lloyds Group and there’s nothing about Barclays suggesting it shall prove different.

At present, the downtrend since June 2007, shown as BLUE on each chart, is at 168.49p. Normal rules demand a price close above this level before enthusiastically hoping for better times ahead. Barclays currently exhibits some indication for a rise as theoretically, now above 165p is supposed to bring recovery to an initial 170.75p. Movement such as this would give every hope the price shall close above the long term downtrend but the fly in the ointment – similar to Lloyds – is the presence of a “glass ceiling in waiting” around the 170p level, shown on the lower chart.

Visually, this creates a suspicion that, even with a trend break, Barclays intends oscillate between the 170p level and the 155p level until something resolves Brexit issues. Only with closure above the 170.75p level will we dare succumb to hope, giving an initial 180p ambition with secondary, if bettered, of 192p. Or more probably beyond.

Until such time the share price manages a solid movement, while it languishes below BLUE there’s the threat of weakness below 159p driving the price down to 150.5p. Extreme danger is possible with trades below the 150p level, due to “bottom” calculating at 136p.

In the event anything interesting happens, we should revisit the retails banks and refresh our Big Picture perspective, sometime in June.

FUTURES

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

9:59:41PM

BRENT

71.68

               

10:16:38PM

GOLD

1284.18

               

10:19:13PM

FTSE

7450.82

7391

7374.5

7346

7435

7456

7466.25

7477

7420

‘cess

10:32:16PM

FRANCE

5595

               

10:34:12PM

GERMANY

12370

               

10:43:02PM

US500

2953.12

2923

2912

2898

2944

2955

2960

2965

2933

Shambles

10:45:31PM

DOW

26646.3

               

‘cess

10:48:05PM

NASDAQ

7832.77

               

Success

10:50:12PM

JAPAN

22409

               

‘cess

30/04/2019 FTSE Closed at 7418 points. Change of -0.3%.

Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,143,157,298 a change of 41.83%

Lloyds for 30/04/2019

#GOLD #Nasdaq When we last reviewed Lloyds, we admitted considerable discomfort in projecting the shares future potentials (link here). Instead, we opted for the cowards route, suggesting it was probably going to be stuck in a state of flux until a Brexit solution appeared. Guess what, this appears to be the case!

As Lloyds share price “closing price” charts show, the share managed to briefly break trend with the market opting to stuff the share below BLUE. This tends confirm our suspicion the price will doubtless start some oscillation, ideally giving a trading range which will prove useful as we await politicians doing the job they are paid to do. It often feels the TV show, “The Apprentice” could do a better job of things, giving a bunch of publicity hungry hopefuls the task of managing a settlement with Europe.

If our suspicion is correct regarding Lloyds, weakness now below 63 should prove capable of reversal to an initial 60p. If broken, secondary is now calculating at 57.5p and remains a point at which we’d hope for a bounce. Theoretically – and visually – it will make sense for a bounce to head to 64p before again experiencing some reversals. This will give a reasonable trading range until Brexit nonsense is sorted, one way or another.

To adopt a tone which approaches optimism, Lloyds share price now requires trade above 67.8p, this apparently now permitting growth to an initial 70.75 with secondary, if bettered, a longer term 74p. Visually, there is an implication any rise foolish enough to hit the 74p level will find itself restricted by a glass ceiling which has existed since 2015. Only with closure above such a point will be genuinely adopt a stance of hope for the future.

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

9:43:37PM

BRENT

71.6

               

9:45:32PM

GOLD

1279.84

1277

1275.2

1270.6

1284

1286

1288.3

1291.8

1279

9:48:00PM

FTSE

7453.92

               

9:50:18PM

FRANCE

5587.5

               

‘cess

10:02:18PM

GERMANY

12334.24

               

10:04:07PM

US500

2941.37

               

‘cess

10:05:55PM

DOW

26585

               

‘cess

10:08:49PM

NASDAQ

7792.15

7789

7772.5

7746

7829

7852

7865.5

7908

7770

Shambles

10:10:26PM

JAPAN

22405

               

‘cess

29/04/2019 FTSE Closed at 7440 points. Change of 0.16%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,331,228,714 a change of -31.26%