#Gold #SP500 Every now and then, stories in the media rumble about Germany and her apparently failing economy. Sometimes the level of hysteria is so absurd, Poland must be carefully watching her borders… . Our April analysis successfully gave upward targets for the DAX. For now, there seems there is a viable threat to exports if the UK Brexit thing goes ahead without trade agreements in place and the chart for The Dax is certainly not terribly encouraging.
To cut to the good stuff, weakness now below 11,550
looks capable of reversal to an initial unspectacular 11,250 points. If (or
rather when) broken, secondary calculates down at 10,775 points, along with a
challenge of the market uptrend since 2011. Only a break of this uptrend would
justify some real hysterics as the index would shuffle into a zone where 7,100
presents a fairly reasonable longer term bottom.
We’ll admit, currently, 7,100 does not appear visually
likely. Instead, we suspect 10,775 shall provide some sort of bounce in the
months ahead. To get out of this mess, the index needs better Blue on the chart,
12,650 at time of writing.
If we look for early warning signals which will suggest
a miracle, Germany requires better 12,160 as this will suggest coming recovery
to 12,400 points. Better still, movement above this level calculates with 12,950
along with the promise of further strong recovery.
For now, it’s regarded as heading to 10,775 eventually!
#DAX #BRENT As the worlds leading country for jail population, you’d think the USA would be good at prisons. Events this weekend tend suggest this isn’t the case and all their practice has counted for nothing. Losing the countries highest profile guest of their penal system must be a major oops. Is the DOW as safe?
We’ve a reason for questioning the DOW as when we last
reviewed it at Easter, a good argument existed suggesting the index should climb
above 28,000 points. Alas, the market managed the mid 27 thousands, then fell
back. It was interesting to note the index trashed this years immediate uptrend
before enacting some surprise recovery. Oddly, when this sort of thing happens
with European markets, we always fear the worst as any future break below a
trend is both expected and will doubtless be vile. But North America is
different as, when a price breaks below a trend, then recovers above, the market
will invariably climb to safety again.
Often, we feel this is the difference in national
psyche – across the pond hoping for the best but on this side, we expect the
If the USA continues “hoping for the best”, it appears
movements now exceeding 26,415 calculate with the ambition of an initial 26,637
points. If exceeded, it will be sane to hope for continued recovery toward
27,272. The visuals quite strongly suggest some hesitation if such a level makes
By taking the European standpoint, in the scenario of
the DOW falling below Red – presently around 26,000 points, reversal risks being
quite share down to 25,289 points initially. If broken, secondary is a longer
term 24,592 points.
#DOW #DAX #GOLD Unusually, this is a report I’d prefer not write! Why? Because the market is making little sense presently. August is supposed to be a bit boring but predictable except thanks to a toxic combination of Mr Trump & Boris, it seems the world doesn’t know how to react.
There’s often a reversal in the markets at the end of
July / start of August and we often feel it’s the case of the markets being
“parked” during the holiday season. This allows a bit of volatility but strong
movements are never expected until the grown-ups return in September. This year
has been just a little different and the FTSE, for instance, has been abandoned
in a region where The Big Picture promises reversal down to 6,600 or so.
If the market has indeed been “parked”, it’s the
equivalent of dumping your kids in the central divider of the M25 and telling
them to place on the grass while you go shopping. As the chart below highlights,
the market is now trading below this years uptrend, only needing some negative
force to drive a dangerous and sharp reversal.
Taking the attitude of the market indeed being parked,
it appears anything near term on the FTSE above 7,286 points should prove
capable of a lift to an initial 7,332 points. If exceeded (and we do not expect
all this on a Friday!) our secondary calculation is at 7,408 points. As the
chart illustrates, the primary target indicates a challenge return to the RED
uptrend. If the secondary is achieved, it will appear the drop was indeed
inspired by the holiday mood and we should hope for further recovery as the
Of course, we’d be remiss if we didn’t peer into the
It looks like the index now requires fail below 7,207
points to cause anguish as this calculates with an initial potential of 7,185
points. If broken, secondary is at 7,156 points. Visually, there is reason to
hope for a bounce, should 7,156 make an appearance.
#SP500 #DOW We noticed Bitcoin has been doing “Bitcoin Stuff” this week, exhibiting wild and irrational movements. Like a moth to a flame, we’ve again attempted make some sense as our last report at the start of July (Link Here) proved quite prescient.
At time of writing, it’s trading around the 12,000 mark
and the immediate situation suggests anything now exceeding 12,615 threatens
some growth to an initial 13,198 dollars. A movement such as this hints at a
challenge of the ruling BLUE downtrend, probably quite soon. Exceeding 13,198 is
liable to prove interesting as we’re not the only folk equiped with a crayon to
draw trend lines. Essentially, the market will doubtless assume Bitcoin is once
again heading upward and our secondary of 14,540 looks quite attainable.
To be completely factual, should Bitcoin opt to do
“Bitcoin Stuff” and completely outperform logic, it could easily accelerate
toward the 16,000 level, perhaps even 16,600. Once in the 16,000’s, we have a
flashing red light which anticipates volatility should such a level actually
appear. Needless to say, it will also be true to suggest media pundits will
start projecting Bitcoin heading to 20,000 dollars and above, depending on which
number they pluck out of the ether.
We will grudgingly admit to some calculation issues, if
this imaginary currency manages above 16,600 as the price should (logically)
Alternately, below RED and it faces a slowdown to 6,900
initially. Secondary is at the 4,000 level!
#CAC40 #SP500 Sometimes, passengers in an aircraft experience an awful moment on the ground, waiting to disembark. An announcement says there will be a delay “of just a few minutes” and seasoned travellers know what that really means. Today, Tuesday, passengers in TCG’s share price disaster (prior successful report link) must have felt a similar emotion, the price looking like it was about to recover, then a “gotcha suckers” drop!
Over the years, we’ve warned repeatedly about the
dangers of opening second spikes in a share. These price movements can run in
either direction but our rule of thumb is of a spike down signalling a coming
upward movement. Obviously, the converse is true for a spike up. TCG was spiked
to 15p, curiously NOT in the opening second but rather, twelve minutes after the
market opened. While perhaps this indicates a change in market strategy (as
we’ve seen this a few times in the last month) but regardless, the effect was
pretty dire and allows Thomas Cook to experience a trading range of 65.08%
for Tuesday. It was virtually impossible to allocate a sensible stop loss,
regardless of which direction you thought it was going and perhaps this was the
We’ve a bit of in-house mumbo jumbo now warning of
danger, if Thomas Cook somehow makes it below 7.65p. Apparently, this will be a
bad thing and calculates with the potential of travel down to an initial 5.3p.
If broken, secondary is at 2p and hopefully bottom. Ultimate bottom is MINUS 18p
However, for now I suspect holders of TCG are simply
stuck on board, awaiting something positive happening. Price movements on the
6th August did suggest a holding pattern was being employed. If this is indeed
the case, anything now exceeding 13.6p is liable to prove useful, bettering the
BLUE downtrend and calculating with the potential of 19p next. If bettered, our
secondary is at 23.3p and an almost certain hesitation in the recovery cycle.
#Gold #Nasdaq Forex can be a blooming nuisance. When GBPEUR managed to hit our 1.085, normally we’d hope for a rebound of some substance. Unfortunately, the relationship faltered slightly below target, forcing us to actually work at projecting the next phase. Assuming the politicians involved achieve their usual standard of competence, the future looks pretty vile. But really cheap for tourists coming from Europe!
We’re no longer entirely confident this pairing shall bounce convincingly,
thanks to our target level breaking. Instead, weakness now below 1.083 looks
like entering a fresh cycle down to an initial 1.0700. If broken, secondary
calculates at 1.0337. Allegedly, the relation almost must experience some
recovery at such a level, if only to generate sufficient weight for longer term
drops! Make no mistake, by any standards GBPEUR is officially horrible as the
longer term calculation claims a gravitational attraction is being exerted from
a distant looking 0.84.
To get out of this mess, Sterling needs recover above BLUE on the chart,
presently at 1.145. A miracle such as this calculates with 1.588 as an initial
ambition with secondary, if bettered, up at 1.200.
In summary, it starts to appear UK Goods shall be extremely attractive as
exports to Europe in the event of Brexit. Of course, whether anyone will be able
to export from the start of November is the big question, if a trade arrangement
remains absent. Perhaps we shall witness the situation with small boats crossing
the channel from Europe, loaded with illegal migrants then returning to France
loaded with illegal Scotch & Gin!