The DAX, Germany for 13/08/2019

#Gold #SP500 Every now and then, stories in the media rumble about Germany and her apparently failing economy. Sometimes the level of hysteria is so absurd, Poland must be carefully watching her borders… . Our April analysis successfully gave upward targets for the DAX. For now, there seems there is a viable threat to exports if the UK Brexit thing goes ahead without trade agreements in place and the chart for The Dax is certainly not terribly encouraging.

To cut to the good stuff, weakness now below 11,550 looks capable of reversal to an initial unspectacular 11,250 points. If (or rather when) broken, secondary calculates down at 10,775 points, along with a challenge of the market uptrend since 2011. Only a break of this uptrend would justify some real hysterics as the index would shuffle into a zone where 7,100 presents a fairly reasonable longer term bottom.

We’ll admit, currently, 7,100 does not appear visually likely. Instead, we suspect 10,775 shall provide some sort of bounce in the months ahead. To get out of this mess, the index needs better Blue on the chart, 12,650 at time of writing.

If we look for early warning signals which will suggest a miracle, Germany requires better 12,160 as this will suggest coming recovery to 12,400 points. Better still, movement above this level calculates with 12,950 along with the promise of further strong recovery.

For now, it’s regarded as heading to 10,775 eventually!

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

10:14:40PM

BRENT

58.3

               

10:31:12PM

GOLD

1511.84

1499

1492

1483

1512

1515

1520.5

1532

1499

Success

10:33:04PM

FTSE

7213.27

               

‘cess

10:35:09PM

FRANCE

5294.7

               

‘cess

10:38:36PM

GERMANY

11638

               

Success

10:43:24PM

US500

2882.97

2872

2851.5

2821

2909

2909

2920

2936

2889

Success

10:46:39PM

DOW

25899

               

Success

10:52:05PM

NASDAQ

7565.02

               

10:54:30PM

JAPAN

20291

               

‘cess

12/08/2019 FTSE Closed at 7226 points. Change of -0.37%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,744,103,828 a change of -22.18%

DOW JONES for 12/08/2019

#DAX #BRENT As the worlds leading country for jail population, you’d think the USA would be good at prisons. Events this weekend tend suggest this isn’t the case and all their practice has counted for nothing. Losing the countries highest profile guest of their penal system must be a major oops. Is the DOW as safe?

We’ve a reason for questioning the DOW as when we last reviewed it at Easter, a good argument existed suggesting the index should climb above 28,000 points. Alas, the market managed the mid 27 thousands, then fell back. It was interesting to note the index trashed this years immediate uptrend before enacting some surprise recovery. Oddly, when this sort of thing happens with European markets, we always fear the worst as any future break below a trend is both expected and will doubtless be vile. But North America is different as, when a price breaks below a trend, then recovers above, the market will invariably climb to safety again.

Often, we feel this is the difference in national psyche – across the pond hoping for the best but on this side, we expect the worst.

If the USA continues “hoping for the best”, it appears movements now exceeding 26,415 calculate with the ambition of an initial 26,637 points. If exceeded, it will be sane to hope for continued recovery toward 27,272. The visuals quite strongly suggest some hesitation if such a level makes an appearance.

By taking the European standpoint, in the scenario of the DOW falling below Red – presently around 26,000 points, reversal risks being quite share down to 25,289 points initially. If broken, secondary is a longer term 24,592 points.

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

4:53:40PM

BRENT

58.18

59.23

51.205

43.18

62.97

59.97

60.74

62.41

56.7

‘cess

4:55:17PM

GOLD

1497.6

               

5:14:31PM

FTSE

7300.45

               

5:17:44PM

FRANCE

5345.2

               

5:23:49PM

GERMANY

11762

11669

11646

11575

11755

11770

11797

11839

11711

‘cess

5:29:10PM

US500

2924.42

               

5:32:25PM

DOW

26323

               

Shambles

5:34:47PM

NASDAQ

7662

               

5:36:27PM

JAPAN

20535

               

‘cess

9/08/2019 FTSE Closed at 7253 points. Change of -0.45%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,096,050,006 a change of -17.83%

8/08/2019 FTSE Closed at 7286 points. Change of 1.22%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,419,094,252 a change of 8.46%

FTSE for 9/08/2019

#DOW #DAX #GOLD Unusually, this is a report I’d prefer not write! Why? Because the market is making little sense presently. August is supposed to be a bit boring but predictable except thanks to a toxic combination of Mr Trump & Boris, it seems the world doesn’t know how to react.

There’s often a reversal in the markets at the end of July / start of August and we often feel it’s the case of the markets being “parked” during the holiday season. This allows a bit of volatility but strong movements are never expected until the grown-ups return in September. This year has been just a little different and the FTSE, for instance, has been abandoned in a region where The Big Picture promises reversal down to 6,600 or so.

If the market has indeed been “parked”, it’s the equivalent of dumping your kids in the central divider of the M25 and telling them to place on the grass while you go shopping. As the chart below highlights, the market is now trading below this years uptrend, only needing some negative force to drive a dangerous and sharp reversal.

Taking the attitude of the market indeed being parked, it appears anything near term on the FTSE above 7,286 points should prove capable of a lift to an initial 7,332 points. If exceeded (and we do not expect all this on a Friday!) our secondary calculation is at 7,408 points. As the chart illustrates, the primary target indicates a challenge return to the RED uptrend. If the secondary is achieved, it will appear the drop was indeed inspired by the holiday mood and we should hope for further recovery as the month continues.

Of course, we’d be remiss if we didn’t peer into the abyss…

It looks like the index now requires fail below 7,207 points to cause anguish as this calculates with an initial potential of 7,185 points. If broken, secondary is at 7,156 points. Visually, there is reason to hope for a bounce, should 7,156 make an appearance.

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

10:04:57PM

BRENT

57.63

56.64

56.235

 

57.62

57.92

58.545

 

56.96

10:22:29PM

GOLD

1501.49

1489

1481.5

 

1510

1510

1516

 

1492

10:24:19PM

FTSE

7276.74

7214

7197.5

 

7304

7305

7328

 

7233

‘cess

10:26:12PM

FRANCE

5371

5331

5313

 

5376

5388

5404

 

5338

Success

10:28:02PM

GERMANY

11807.16

11716

11672

 

11813

11855

11890

 

11733

10:29:52PM

US500

2932.07

2880

2868.5

 

2907

2942

2950

 

2893

Success

10:32:59PM

DOW

26353.5

26102

26005

 

26209

26400

26434

 

26240

‘cess

10:35:41PM

NASDAQ

7710

7551

7493.5

 

7607

7741

7799.5

 

7574

Success

10:37:28PM

JAPAN

20790

20520

20456.5

 

20679

20815

20937

 

20520

 

8/08/2019 FTSE Closed at 7286 points. Change of 1.22%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,419,094,252 a change of 8.46%

Bitcoin for 8/08/2019

#SP500 #DOW We noticed Bitcoin has been doing “Bitcoin Stuff” this week, exhibiting wild and irrational movements. Like a moth to a flame, we’ve again attempted make some sense as our last report at the start of July (Link Here) proved quite prescient.

At time of writing, it’s trading around the 12,000 mark and the immediate situation suggests anything now exceeding 12,615 threatens some growth to an initial 13,198 dollars. A movement such as this hints at a challenge of the ruling BLUE downtrend, probably quite soon. Exceeding 13,198 is liable to prove interesting as we’re not the only folk equiped with a crayon to draw trend lines. Essentially, the market will doubtless assume Bitcoin is once again heading upward and our secondary of 14,540 looks quite attainable.

To be completely factual, should Bitcoin opt to do “Bitcoin Stuff” and completely outperform logic, it could easily accelerate toward the 16,000 level, perhaps even 16,600. Once in the 16,000’s, we have a flashing red light which anticipates volatility should such a level actually appear. Needless to say, it will also be true to suggest media pundits will start projecting Bitcoin heading to 20,000 dollars and above, depending on which number they pluck out of the ether.

We will grudgingly admit to some calculation issues, if this imaginary currency manages above 16,600 as the price should (logically) almost double.

Alternately, below RED and it faces a slowdown to 6,900 initially. Secondary is at the 4,000 level!

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

10:13:28PM

BRENT

57.34

               

Success

10:15:32PM

GOLD

1501.79

               

Success

10:17:44PM

FTSE

7207.9

               

10:19:07PM

FRANCE

5302.7

               

Shambles

10:26:27PM

GERMANY

11712.83

               

10:28:48PM

US500

2881.32

2824

2819.5

2795

2885

2892

2900

2924

2846

Shambles

10:32:05PM

DOW

25956

25644

25590

25423

25807

26091

26121

26475

25800

Shambles

10:43:08PM

NASDAQ

7547

               

10:47:46PM

JAPAN

20613

               

‘cess

7/08/2019 FTSE Closed at 7198 points. Change of 0.38%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,840,689,185 a change of 2.45%

Thomas Cook for 7/08/2019

#CAC40 #SP500 Sometimes, passengers in an aircraft experience an awful moment on the ground, waiting to disembark. An announcement says there will be a delay “of just a few minutes” and seasoned travellers know what that really means. Today, Tuesday, passengers in TCG’s share price disaster (prior successful report link) must have felt a similar emotion, the price looking like it was about to recover, then a “gotcha suckers” drop!

Over the years, we’ve warned repeatedly about the dangers of opening second spikes in a share. These price movements can run in either direction but our rule of thumb is of a spike down signalling a coming upward movement. Obviously, the converse is true for a spike up. TCG was spiked to 15p, curiously NOT in the opening second but rather, twelve minutes after the market opened. While perhaps this indicates a change in market strategy (as we’ve seen this a few times in the last month) but regardless, the effect was pretty dire and allows Thomas Cook to experience a trading range of 65.08%  for Tuesday. It was virtually impossible to allocate a sensible stop loss, regardless of which direction you thought it was going and perhaps this was the markets idea.

We’ve a bit of in-house mumbo jumbo now warning of danger, if Thomas Cook somehow makes it below 7.65p. Apparently, this will be a bad thing and calculates with the potential of travel down to an initial 5.3p. If broken, secondary is at 2p and hopefully bottom. Ultimate bottom is MINUS 18p (not possible).

However, for now I suspect holders of TCG are simply stuck on board, awaiting something positive happening. Price movements on the 6th August did suggest a holding pattern was being employed. If this is indeed the case, anything now exceeding 13.6p is liable to prove useful, bettering the BLUE downtrend and calculating with the potential of 19p next. If bettered, our secondary is at 23.3p and an almost certain hesitation in the recovery cycle.

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

9:57:00PM

BRENT

58.49

               

‘cess

10:10:16PM

GOLD

1475.06

               

10:12:41PM

FTSE

7206.66

               

10:14:53PM

FRANCE

5267.7

5228

5208.5

5179

5287

5298

5319.5

5364

5243

Success

10:28:35PM

GERMANY

11629

               

10:31:09PM

US500

2877.27

2830

2808

2782

2861

2889

2901

2925

2830

‘cess

10:33:35PM

DOW

25966

               

Success

10:35:44PM

NASDAQ

7514.12

               

‘cess

10:37:35PM

JAPAN

20635

               

Success

 

6/08/2019 FTSE Closed at 7171 points. Change of -0.72%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,677,276,467 a change of 2.51%

GBPEUR for 6/08/2019

#Gold #Nasdaq Forex can be a blooming nuisance. When GBPEUR managed to hit our 1.085, normally we’d hope for a rebound of some substance. Unfortunately, the relationship faltered slightly below target, forcing us to actually work at projecting the next phase. Assuming the politicians involved achieve their usual standard of competence, the future looks pretty vile. But really cheap for tourists coming from Europe!

We’re no longer entirely confident this pairing shall bounce convincingly, thanks to our target level breaking. Instead, weakness now below 1.083 looks like entering a fresh cycle down to an initial 1.0700. If broken, secondary calculates at 1.0337. Allegedly, the relation almost must experience some recovery at such a level, if only to generate sufficient weight for longer term drops! Make no mistake, by any standards GBPEUR is officially horrible as the longer term calculation claims a gravitational attraction is being exerted from a distant looking 0.84.

To get out of this mess, Sterling needs recover above BLUE on the chart, presently at 1.145. A miracle such as this calculates with 1.588 as an initial ambition with secondary, if bettered, up at 1.200.

In summary, it starts to appear UK Goods shall be extremely attractive as exports to Europe in the event of Brexit. Of course, whether anyone will be able to export from the start of November is the big question, if a trade arrangement  remains absent. Perhaps we shall witness the situation with small boats crossing the channel from Europe, loaded with illegal migrants then returning to France loaded with illegal Scotch & Gin!

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

10:07:23PM

BRENT

60.09

               

Success

10:11:02PM

GOLD

1464.7

1450

1444.5

1436

1462

1470

1479

1492

1454

Success

10:15:48PM

FTSE

7161.82

               

Success

10:24:28PM

FRANCE

5221.2

               

Success

10:28:05PM

GERMANY

11552.45

               

Success

10:36:24PM

US500

2826.02

               

Success

10:45:14PM

DOW

25566

               

Success

10:48:00PM

NASDAQ

7367.12

7351

7245

7131

7453

7477

7517

7553

7409

Success

10:50:05PM

JAPAN

20200

               

Success

5/08/2019 FTSE Closed at 7223 points. Change of -2.48%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,514,005,349 a change of -7.03%