FTSE for FRIDAY and Bakkavor! #CAC40 #US500 Sometimes I
wish this was a video presentation, if only for the joy of starting
with; “Hello world and welcome to another report from the UK Banana
Democracy!” Glancing at worldwide media, the “Dead Parrot” sketch has
international recognition and use, rehashed daily to highlight Downing
St “plans”.
We ended last week on a throwaway comment, proposing a
fairly serious reversal if the FTSE mangled its way below 7300 last Friday. The
UK market achieved our proposed bottom, breaking it slightly, of 7164 points 8
minutes after the market opened on Monday morning. There’s little doubt the 136
point reversal was due to speculation about the UK’s political competence. The
immediate problem for tomorrow – Friday – as the index keeps approaching the
uptrend for 2019. Visually, any break now below 7140 points is liable to prove
fairly serious, permitted reversal to an initial 7030 points. Secondary, if
broken, is down at 6921 points.
The index closed Thursday at 7234 points, presently
requiring above 7298 points to justify any rise being taken seriously. Such a
trigger moves allegedly allows continued recovery to an initial 7315 points.
Secondary, if bettered, calculates at 7370 which, unfortunately, was also the
trigger level required last Friday to allow us to take any rise seriously.
Bakkavor (LSE:BAKK) On the subject of Banana’s, this lot immediately
sprung to mind. Famous for devouring the UK company Geest, the banana kings,
this Icelandic food group have been listed in London since late 2017, the share
price coming very close to a bottom level, a point at which we’d expect a
rebound. The immediate situation suggests weakness now below 115 should reverse
to 107p, this being the point at which we’d hope for a bounce. Any rebound
bettering 128 looks capable of moves to an initial 141p. If exceeded, secondary
is a longer term 153. At this point, we shall require reviewing its future.
To be fair, the recent low of 110p was “probably” close enough to bottom, so
it’s perhaps worth keeping an eye on them. As always, we’ve a warning. Below 107
and “ultimate” bottom is at 92p. We cannot calculate below such a point.
28/03/2019 FTSE Closed at 7234 points. Change of 0.56%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,101,844,209 a change of -12.7%
Kingfisher #Nasdaq #Japan
When the USA finally gets around to building its Mexico
wall, they should consider Pampas Grass at a material. The stuff is capable of
eating a strimmer, totally destroying a lawnmower, and even a ride-on tractor
will grind to a halt when faced with this absurd weed. Unfortunately, it’s a
weed which garden centres sell.
It’s nearly spring, and time for the annual battle
against a garden.
All joking aside, Pampas Grass is actually the subject
of banning orders in some US areas. While visually pleasing at first, the plant is a
nightmare in gardens. Similar to Rhododendron, it’s capable of annexing entire countries.
This rant, of course, brings us to Kingfisher’ share price and their habit of
owning stores with garden centres attached. Currently doing battle with both
species of ‘garden centre promoted’ weed up here in our bit of Scotland, feeling kindly to garden centres
is an alien concept. Once we identify exactly what type of triffid describes a
border, it can be certain we shall rant about it. We’ve a border plant which
successfully defeated a petrol powered hedge cutter, along with an electric
chainsaw. This year, it faces a 36 inch petrol chainsaw, along with a new
cutting technique which may involve a naked flame.
The important number for Kingfisher is currently at
216p. Despite the price trading at 230 at time of writing, we view it as heading
down to 216p. The danger flourishes if it trades below 216p, even on the
first spike downward. In fact, especially on the first spike downward, thanks to
technical reasons. Below 216p and we shall regard it as on a cycle to a bottom,
eventually, of 142p. This is not payback for their advertising the weed as
“Grass Decorative Plant, Small” but instead, the reality of price movement
calculations.
An publicity picture of B&Q Pampas Grass, waiting to murder a strimmer.
To dig their way out of this mess, Kingfisher require grow above 295p, making
movement to an initial 324p likely. If exceeded, the price is expected to
flourish to a longer term 356p.
27/03/2019 FTSE Closed at 7194 points. Change of -0.03%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,844,319,657 a change of 9.2%
Zoo Digital #DOW #CAC40 Accidentally cutting your wrist at 2am always leads to a fun household. A chicken pox issue, going since last October, left hard lumps, very itchy hard lumps. Absently digging at one, there was a realisation the “lump” was 99% old tissue which could be prised off. Then it started to bleed – a lot – an awful lot. Waking wife, clenching a wrist, oozing blood between fingers, tends elicit hysterics and questions.
Which brings us neatly to Zoo Digital, along with a warning about picking at
wounds!
There is always the temptation to try and pick bottom with shares and Zoo,
presently, are flirting with some very real danger. At time of writing, the
share is trading around 46.75p. From our perspective, it dare not break below
45.5p as this risks uncovering a painful scab, a move with greater potential for
self harm than we’d expect. For the purposes of certainty (or as close to such
as the market allows) we shall demand closure below 45.5p as providing breakage
of the final straw but to be realistic, alarm bells would now ring if this
trades an iota below 45.5p.
The danger?
Such a calamity enters a cycle toward an initial 18p and hopefully a bounce
with some integrity. If broken, our secondary calculates at a bottom of 2.6p,
something which is visually absurd despite being mathematically possible. It is
vanishingly rare for us to propose a price reversal to 1/20th of current and
we’re not comfortable doing so. But there’s little doubt the share requires
above 64p just to regain the immediate uptrend – or above 82p to regain the
“real” uptrend.
If it intends a bounce rather than break the 45.5p, and rebound exceeding 64
should prove capable of an initial 86p, along with some visual safety. If
bettered, secondary calculates at 101p.
It’s worth watching but, as with any other share, it has dangers. Our reason
for mentioning this one is fairly silly. Sometimes, the market appear to notice
a share price skirting the edge of catastrophe and reacts, extremely positively,
to remain the share from danger. Perhaps some research will make sense.
26/03/2019 FTSE Closed at 7196 points. Change of 0.26%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,351,936,484 a change of 6.29%
Hurricane Energy #gold There comes a point in everyone’s life, a “you know you’re a grownup…” moment, which just feels ageing. Experiencing this today, automatically filling the salt shaker over the kitchen sink, gave a moment of self disgust. Forever gone was the crunch of spilled salt on a worktop, along with a withering look.
I often wonder if traders experience these lucid
moments of common sense, when chasing a share price’, realising they dodged a
bullet by opting to do something different. Popular share, Hurricane Energy, is
approaching a point where folk may need question its future potentials.
The inset on the chart is being used to justify our
doze of nerves. More often than we’d like, shares are promoted upward above a
downtrend, giving an impression of good times ahead. Unfortunately, this
impression will be dashed a few days later with the price forced below the
downtrend again. We’ve adopted the term GaGa for this nonsense, Gap Up, Gap
Down. As the inset shows, in the event Hurricane is gapped below that Green line
anytime soon (presently 45.5) it will complete a perfect GaGa dance, moving the
price into a region where we’d expect it to relax to 33p eventually. Secondary,
if broken, is a bottom of 29p, this being a point where it almost must bounce.
Of course, we’re speculating on a movement which hasn’t
yet happened but it is, without doubt, something to be aware of. Somehow or
other, the market uses the strength in these GaGa things to generate sufficient
weakness for severe drops.
Importantly, we’ve another inset worth discussion,
again something fairly important. For some reason, the market has gone to
exquisite lengths to avoid this share price actually closing above
the 50p mark. It results in speculation this price is liable to prove quite
interesting – if the market ever permits the share to actually close a session
above 50p. Such a triggering move would suggest coming growth to an initial 61p.
If exceeded, secondary is a longer term 72p, displaying a new all time high,
preparing the share price for a strong future.
For now though, we’re worried about a “surprise” Gap
Down appearing, taking the price below that Green trend line.
BRENT CRUDE Big Picture. We’d friends round for dinner on Saturday. Okay, we had Chinese takeaway containers on the table,
plates, cutlery, several bags of chips, and the
inevitable bag of prawn crackers for the animals. And wine, lots of wine. Mrs T&T, despite proper chef credentials, likes
relaxing with friends rather than cooking for ’em.
During the course of the evening, it became clear there was an almost
ridiculous notion the market analyst in the room would know, with complete
certainty, what was going to happen in the future as a result of Brexit. The
shock, when it was admitted I don’t have a clue, should not have been a
surprise. But at present, there are many indications of share prices being
placed in fairly tight ranges until the current chaos – if it is chaos – can be
resolved. Personally speaking, it’s difficult to trust anything written or
broadcast, thanks to the level of agenda’ being promoted.
During the last week, there has been further evidence of share prices being
stalled into a range with some interesting movements against the retail banks.
Surprisingly, even Brent Crude (an international benchmark price) seems to be
showing the potential of it being trapped for a while.
The immediate situation against Brent seems fairly simple.
Movement now above 69 should promote further growth to an initial 75. If
exceeded, secondary is at 84 dollars. Visually, neither ambition is particularly
helpful as it appears the market intends match the high of last year but
certainly, no higher without some volatility first. More probable, if our
suspicion about “parking” proves correct, shall be weakness now below 64 proving
capable of reversal toward 55 and a bonk against the uptrend since 2015. A more
severe (but visually unlikely) issue occurs, should the price manage below the
RED uptrend as future weakness to 35 becomes possible.
For now, we favour the visuals which tend suggest a repeat of last years
performance shall prove viable. As a result, it will hopefully be worth watching
for similar dance steps enacted by oil related share prices.
FTSE for FRIDAY #Nasdaq #Brent The UK market continues to power itself upward, lifted by what? We bang on about how important “Higher Highs” can be, a notion amply proved by market moves since March 17th. Once a market starts growing, it becomes difficult to slow things down, despite an entire political class’ best efforts.
The immediate situation for the FTSE is slightly
confusing. Generally when a “Higher High” cycle commences, the market will only
grow so far before some doubt establishes, provoking a reversal to the point it
all started. In the case of the FTSE, this means we should not be aghast to
witness travel to around 7250 in the days ahead. Prior to this, we’d hope
anything near term above 7371 should bring some oomph for an initial 7386
points. If bettered, secondary is at 7402 points and an ideal level from which
relaxation can be expected. This sort of ambition comes nowhere close to
bothering the BLUE downtrend, thus giving the impression hope remains for the
longer term.
Unfortunately, if taking our rhetoric as gospel, the
index could continue to 7454 should 7402 be exceeded, so that’s a reasonable
level to try a stop loss at. Our suspicion, should Brexit be delayed, is of
reversal to 7250 prior to an attempt at BLUE on the chart.
All of this is, of course, completely insane!
We’re the first to admit it as there’s something going
on which software alone cannot account for. When a market makes a Higher High,
it’s almost unheard of for a price to accelerate to target without deflection.
Instead, a price will generally make it around half way to a primary target and
then, doubt establishes itself amongst traders. A sell off to collect profit
thus will generally fuel a reversal down to whatever prior level it started
from. Now, smart traders (in the absence of negative news) will again buy into a
market, hoping for a bounce with the next surge upward hopefully exceeded the
previous half way mark.
Simple? Or just human nature?
The FTSE complicates things as we’re showing a strange
tier of target levels, a collection of 100 point leaps from 7402 through 7500
all the way to 7600. At present, the important detail comes if 7402 exceeded as
continued traffic to 7509 is theoretically possible. We do expect that BLUE line
to have a say in matters though.
At present, we’re not inclined to take any reversal as
serious unless the FTSE stumbles below the 7300 level before attempting our
immediate 7386 target. This risks being a poor show, possibly the harbinger of
coming weakness to 7196 and below to a bottom of 7164 points.
Finally, have a good weekend and “Hello again” to our
regular readers on Reunion Island, along with new visitors from Antigua and
Barbuda (you’re all lucky people!)
21/03/2019 FTSE Closed at 7355 points. Change of 0.88%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,645,172,640 a change of -16.41%
FTSE for FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX)
The UK market continues to power itself upward, lifted by
what? We bang on about how important “Higher Highs” can be, a notion amply
proved by market moves since March 17th. Once a market starts growing, it
becomes difficult to slow things down, despite an entire political class’ best
efforts.
The immediate situation for the FTSE is slightly
confusing. Generally when a “Higher High” cycle commences, the market will only
grow so far before some doubt establishes, provoking a reversal to the point it
all started. In the case of the FTSE, this means we should not be aghast to
witness travel to around 7250 in the days ahead. Prior to this, we’d hope
anything near term above 7371 should bring some oomph for an initial 7386
points. If bettered, secondary is at 7402 points and an ideal level from which
relaxation can be expected. This sort of ambition comes nowhere close to
bothering the BLUE downtrend, thus giving the impression hope remains for the
longer term.
Unfortunately, if taking our rhetoric as gospel, the
index could continue to 7454 should 7402 be exceeded, so that’s a reasonable
level to try a stop loss at. Our suspicion, should Brexit be delayed, is of
reversal to 7250 prior to an attempt at BLUE on the chart.
All of this is, of course, completely insane!
We’re the first to admit it as there’s something going
on which software alone cannot account for. When a market makes a Higher High,
it’s almost unheard of for a price to accelerate to target without deflection.
Instead, a price will generally make it around half way to a primary target and
then, doubt establishes itself amongst traders. A sell off to collect profit
thus will generally fuel a reversal down to whatever prior level it started
from. Now, smart traders (in the absence of negative news) will again buy into a
market, hoping for a bounce with the next surge upward hopefully exceeded the
previous half way mark.
Simple? Or just human nature?
The FTSE complicates things as we’re showing a strange
tier of target levels, a collection of 100 point leaps from 7402 through 7500
all the way to 7600. At present, the important detail comes if 7402 exceeded as
continued traffic to 7509 is theoretically possible. We do expect that BLUE line
to have a say in matters though.
At present, we’re not inclined to take any reversal as
serious unless the FTSE stumbles below the 7300 level before attempting our
immediate 7386 target. This risks being a poor show, possibly the harbinger of
coming weakness to 7196 and below to a bottom of 7164 points.
Finally, have a good weekend and “Hello again” to our
regular readers on Reunion Island, along with new visitors from Antigua and
Barbuda (you’re all lucky people!)
