Trends And Targets

#CAC40 #Nasdaq There’s a certain brand loyalty which Intel generated. An abiding memory from early 1983, rushing back from Edinburgh, Scotland with an IBM XT computer, fitted with an Intel 8088 processor and a massive 10mb hard disk. This marked the start of a relationship with Intel processors which continues to this day.

The company, due to issue an earnings report on Thursday, appear to have a share price with some reasonable growth potentials.

From an immediate standpoint, apparently price movement now above 60 should bring continued growth to an initial 63. Slightly more interesting is our secondary calculation which comes in at 67 dollars. To be honest, the point at which the share closed on Wednesday (58.72) already makes travel to 67 seem a sensible conclusion.

Our perspective, using our software and attempting to mimic market software’ future price cycle, is slightly terrifying at this stage, due to the potential of a movement coming within 24 hours! Usually, we prefer some weeks or months in which to rehearse excuses!

For any trouble to be taken seriously, Intel requires to flop below 55, this looking capable of reversal to an initial 51. If broken, our secondary drop target calculates at 45.5. Neither drop potential is particularly life threatening as the price requires below 40 to break the immediate growth cycle and utterly trash its upward potentials.

We like Intel and, of course, the memory of that first “proper” PC with Intel Inside reminds of the original solid IBM keyboard. What the heck has happened to keyboards over the years? The quality and feel has declined and even our in-house choice, Microsoft Sculpt Office keyboards and mice rarely last longer than 18 months…

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:27:06PM	BRENT	73.92
10:42:39PM	GOLD	1276.34
10:44:57PM	FTSE	7467.94
10:47:50PM	FRANCE	5580.5	5557	5545	5527	5585	5600	5618.5	5639	5563
10:56:16PM	GERMANY	12309									Success
10:57:50PM	US500	2927.92
10:59:40PM	DOW	26546									Shambles
11:01:29PM	NASDAQ	7840.24	7781	7762	7736	7827	7841	7850	7873	7782
11:03:55PM	JAPAN	22191

24/04/2019 FTSE Closed at 7471 points. Change of -0.69%.

Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,769,303,007 a change of -12.08%

As one of those folk who has a lot in common with Amazon, it made sense to review their potentials prior to results being released on Thursday. Of course, the “lot in common” is best expressed with a ridiculous self belief of being able to do anything, a character facet (flaw) which Amazon also exhibits as they attempt enter every field.

This self belief came to a crashing halt earlier today. Regular readers will recall mention of a love affair with my little red tractor. Amazon delivered a present in a large tube, several square meters of red Vinyl Wrap. The tractors bonnet had been growing rusty blisters under its paintwork and, having watched numerous shows on TV where car restorers easily employed Vinyl Wrap to cover multitudes of sins, my little tractor was about to be renewed to pristine condition.

Perhaps I should have remembered something important. I’m quite literally banned from wrapping presents at home, my wife preferring to be blindfolded and wearing gloves while she gift wraps anything I’ve bought her. All joking aside, both wife and daughter ensure I never wrap a gift, believing I’m in the pay of the sticky tape and wrapping paper industries. But surely self adhesive Vinyl Wrap could be easier? And a Hot Air gun during application would melt away any crimes…

Typing this, now with burnt fingers and a suspicious bald patch on my arm, the little red tractor sits on the lawn and looks quite dreadful. Quite honestly, I would have achieved a smoother, more visually pleasing, effect if I’d chosen to glue strips of bubble wrap onto the bonnet. Clearly, I cannot do anything and it makes me wonder if Amazon, once a reliable bookseller, will continue to produce positive results.

Will Amazon ever meet its Vinyl Wrap moment?

As the share price trundles on toward results day, we’re calculating a trigger level of 1979. To be fair, this is the initial target level with moves now above 1930 indicating the potential of 1979 making an appearance. Above this level and things get interesting, provoking 2206 as possible. This would present a new “all time high” for Amazon and take the share price into a region where a distant 2674 will be regarded as influencing price growth.

Essentially, the 2674 ambition will tend make positive news cause the share price to outperform, whereas negative news will tend underperform. Unless, of course, it’s really negative – a Vinyl Wrap moment!

If everything were to go wrong for Amazon, the share price needs move below the 1600 level. Visually something has been happening at this level until recently as now, below 1600 indicates coming weakness to 1245 initially. If broken, it should bottom around 996.

We suspect our calculation of 2206 shall prove viable, given share price performance this year.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:16:43PM	BRENT	74.02									‘cess
9:20:04PM	GOLD	1272.7	1270	1265	1255	1280	1280	1282.5	1288	1271	Success
9:31:41PM	FTSE	7520									Success
9:50:30PM	FRANCE	5592.7
9:52:42PM	GERMANY	12251
9:58:57PM	US500	2935.37	2900	2889.5	2874	2921	2937	2941	2953	2909	Success
10:00:46PM	DOW	26651.9									‘cess
10:03:38PM	NASDAQ	7814.62									Success
10:05:23PM	JAPAN	22357									‘cess

For some reason, Versarien always seems lend itself to a “what happened next” report, literally with each scenario we publish. Our last review on 2nd April (link here) illustrates a slightly worrying situation. Visually the rise came extremely close to our 145 target but importantly, it neither hit nor exceeded our ambition.

Common sense alone suggests some patience, after all the share has only made one attempt at the target level. Generally, a price will exhibit a fascination with such a target level for quite a few sessions, essentially flirting with the target price. Our worry comes from the fact 145p remained unsullied at the first surge upward, despite the share price being also manipulated (gapped) upward at the open. In addition, we had two quite distinct formula pointing to 145p as a pretty major point of interest. The fact the price (so far)  has avoiding this ambition perhaps implies weakness is present.

As a result, we’re inclined to look at reversal triggers before exploring future rise potentials.

The immediate threat is of weakness continuing below 130p bringing reversal down to an initial 122p.  In the grand scheme of things, this does not present a particularly nasty threat but our secondary, if such a level breaks, is down at 103p and risks reversal below the immediate downtrend. This tends to be a dangerous movement from a big picture perspective. In reality, we’d hope for a genuine bounce if 122p makes a guest appearance.

Due to our perception of the share as showing weakness, we now demand it better 149p before taking further rises seriously. A move such as this calculates with an initial potential of 165p. If exceeded, our secondary calculates as a less believable 198p – suspicious only because it exceeds the high of 2018, in doing so requiring an entirely new game plan for the longer term.

For now, we shall not be aghast to witness the price at 122p, prior to another chapter unfolding for Versarien.

FUTURES

18/04/2019 FTSE Closed at 7459 points. Change of -0.16%.

Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,520,206,795 a change of -18.65%

As the market is closed on Friday, due to everyone eating chocolate, we’ve opted to end the trading week with our usual look at FTSE near term potentials. April has proven less than impressive, doubtless due to politicians unable to roll away the stone blocking a sane conclusion to the reality of Brexit.

The immediate situation for the FTSE appears quite straightforward. Moves now exceeding 7480 should bring continued recovery to an initial 7511 points.  If exceeded, our secondary calculation is at 7561, along with some stumbles. Tightest stop looks like 7444 points.

If trouble is coming – which actually looks possible for Thursday – reversal below 7444 points looks capable of travel down to an initial 7399 points. If broken, our secondary calculation is at 7352 points.

It’s fairly important to remember the uptrend for 2019 is presently lurking at 7328 points with weakness below such a level looking capable of a sharp 80 point fall to around 7245 points!

For light relief, or more probably because it’s important, we’ve given a couple of insets on the chart. These insets show what’s happened since it became clear Brexit was being delayed. The UK market has reacted very, very, carefully, with a lack of flamboyance seen on other markets in Europe and the USA. The respect being paid to the ruling BLUE downtrend is fairly important as it implies weakness now below BLUE is liable to provoke sharp reversals. Essentially, this is our doctrine of “If it ain’t goin’ up, it’s goin’ down” in action. Despite our speculative trading scenario above, the BLUE line advocates extreme caution if the index slides below – presently 7417 points.

Have a good Easter. We’re trying to figure out how to amuse grandchildren with a new tradition; setting fire to Easter eggs and rolling them down a hill. What could go wrong?

17/04/2019 FTSE Closed at 7471 points. Change of 0.03%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,556,612,805 a change of 1.69%

GERMANY DAX #CAC40 #Nasdaq Curiously, reports Germany is on the edge of recession appear to be ignored by the marketplace. In fact, the German index is within sneezing distance of a trigger level which we expect shall provoke a new all time high for the index. Perhaps Germany is suspected of surviving a post-Brexit world…

A ready joke springs to mind. If the renovation company do have insurance, will any unexplained claim be rejected as “An Act of God”? And wasn’t the organist quick off the mark, realising his piano was now a pile of soggy embers and scarpers to Germany, just to get a shot of someone else’ keyboard! Anyone who’s listened to BBC Radio2 “Organist Entertains” will understand a justified loathing for such an instrument.

However, the German market is becoming interesting, visually appearing relieved Brexit has been delayed. The situation now is of movement above 12,120 indicating coming recovery to an initial 12,293 points. If bettered, secondary is a longer term 12,486 points. At this point, we’ll probably commence drooling slightly  as the index becomes capable of a third target level.

It’s the third target of 12,677 which is noteworthy, taking the market within sight of an important trigger level. In the event the DAX closes a session above 12,775 points, from our perspective it triggers a longer term rising cycle to 14,153 points. This is perhaps something worthy of consideration for the future.

For the index to get into trouble, it needs below 11,574 points. Weakness such as this will suggest some travel down to an initial 10,929 points with secondary, if broken, at 10,506 points.

16/04/2019 FTSE Closed at 7469 points. Change of 0.44%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,464,264,933 a change of 18.98%

FRANCE CAC40 #Gold #DAX France’s bold effort to change the Paris skyline will probably dominate the news cycle, so it makes sense to examine the countries index. In common with Germany (and a lesser degree the UK) the market started April with considerable optimism, now to be buoyed with untold funds rebuilding the landmark.

As for the CAC, it’s certainly showing some signs of becoming quite interesting. We’ve designated 5555 as a trigger level if it intends provide convincing recovery. Movement above this point looks capable of achieving a fairly tame initial 5588 points, along with some hesitation. Our secondary calculation is a bit more encouraging, calculating at 5731 points.

This, visually, provokes a higher high, thus allowing us to calculate a third (and major) target level if the secondary is bettered, Essentially, it appears 5882 points shall provide a level where some serious hesitation can be anticipated.

If trouble is coming, the index requires below 5411 presently, this allowing reversal to an initial 5353 points. If broken, secondary is at 5233, a point where the visuals indicate a bounce can be expected.

As for the Notre-Dame, while sharing no religious empathy with a building, personal fond memories of hours wasted in the early 1980’s, lazing in the square with students and watching the world go by – obviously prior to it becoming the unsavoury haunt of recent years. The fire is akin to watching memories burn, almost evoking the empty loss of that day on Sept 11th.

15/04/2019 FTSE Closed at 7436 points. Change of -0.01%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,592,420,732 a change of -23.84%

The Dow Jones #Brent #SP500 Grandchildren visiting for the Easter holidays required a good practical joke was invented. We’re based in countryside, it seemed reasonable to let the city kids know they’d be joining local children of the same age, watching lambs and cleaning up lamb poo, keeping the fields tidy.

Both girls rebelled at the prospect until informed they’d be paid by the bucketful. Monday is going to prove interesting, thanks to a local farmer with a sense of humour.

This, rather neatly, brings us to the DOW JONES and the potential of selling readers a bucket of poo. There’s now a real “problem” with this index as the unlikely number of 30,706 popped up as a viable long term potential. Additionally, there’s an initial target with some hesitation expected at 28,461 points.

We’re somewhat sceptical as the calculations are giving a series of new all time highs for the USA index. The final trigger shall come when (or if) the index trades above 26,753 points. Early warning shall be closure above 26,430 points. The day high on Friday was at 26,436 points and it closed at 26,412 points.

The DOW requires trade BELOW 25,780 to trash these big picture upward potentials.

We’d some pause for thought when considering the USA. The Nasdaq is sitting in a region with the potential of a further 1,000 point growth whereas the S&P only presently looks capable of stumbling in just an additional 50 points at 2,957 points.

Aside from the FTSE, similar positive index movements appear to be taking place across Europe.

With ample excuse, the FTSE is proving shambolic but we suspect, the recent hesitation on Brexit, shall allow the UK marketplace to come close to challenging prior highs before a future excuse for reversals. This results in the potential of 7750 making itself known at some point. The UK needs drop below 7250 to spoil such a potential.

12/04/2019 FTSE Closed at 7437 points. Change of 0.27%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,029,665,005 a change of 2.58%