Trends And Targets

#Brent #Dax Starting the week with a couple of shares featured in our emails couldn’t produce two utterly different trade histories. Unilever, currently a boring 46 quid and Novacyt showing a vibrant 106p. Despite our previous glance at Novacyt forcing us to admit would couldn’t calculate beyond 124p, the share price cheerfully ignored all our sums, managing to spend a couple of sessions at nearly 220p.

One side effect of this buoyant behaviour is to allow some wild price swings, making the concept of a “stop loss” virtually impossible. At time of writing, NCYT are trading around 106p, needing above just 114p to apparently trigger movements toward an initial 137p. If exceeded, secondary is a visually pleasing 161p though, to be honest, if the company produce positive news (or internet chat rooms provoke positive vibes) the share price could now attempt 229p.

Unfortunately, there’s another side to this optimism. The price only needs below 62p to enter a cycle with a bottom (hopefully) at 39p. We cannot calculate below such a level.

Unilever  With a growth curve which is rather more conventional than Novacyt’s, Unilever is no less spectacular and it seems a few folk invested since the lows of 2009 are starting to question if it’s the time to take some profit. Perhaps it was the blip below the uptrend on July 8th giving slight concern?

All to often, this sort of signal (circled) does provide early warning for trouble ahead but sometimes, it can ‘simply’ be the case of the market opting to capture a short position prior to a near term rise. After all, the market is in business to make money and is never charitable!

However, our take on the blip downward suggests it wasn’t a warning of evil times ahead, instead it appears more possible movement next above 4730 shall see the share price rise to 5033p. If bettered, our secondary calculation comes in at 5471p and a new all time high.

Visually, an attempt at the 50 quid level is believable but we suspect the secondary of 5471p shall need positive FTSE100 conditions to make it a reality.

If trouble is planned, now below 4310 shall give ample cause for concern, taking the price into a region where an initial drop to 3786 is expected. If broken, secondary calculates at a less likely bottom of 2604p.

In summary, we’re inclined to believe 50 quid as possible on the immediate trading cycle but suspect beyond such a level will be difficult, at least until the Brexit hiatus is complete.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
2:22:54PM	BRENT	58	57.32	56.9	55.98	58.19	58.63	59.06	59.64	58	Success
2:36:00PM	GOLD	1643.71									Success
2:39:05PM	FTSE	7410									Success
2:41:14PM	FRANCE	6021.2									Success
2:55:28PM	GERMANY	13563	13496	13464	13386	13586	13690	13754	13840	13610	Success
6:05:19PM	US500	3338.67									‘cess
6:12:34PM	DOW	28999.7
6:15:02PM	NASDAQ	9447.62									Success
6:20:51PM	JAPAN	23209									Success

 

 

21/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7403 points. Change of -0.44%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,371,450,688 a change of 1.87%

20/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7436 points. Change of -0.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,254,655,479 a change of 11.64%

19/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7457 points. Change of 1.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,602,530,865 a change of -6.87%

18/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7362 points. Change of -0.96%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,015,855,072 a change of 44.99%

17/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7433 points. Change of 0.32%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,149,027,770 a change of -24.37%

14/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7409 points. Change of -0.58%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,485,879,910 a change of -17.68%

13/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7452 points. Change of -1.09%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,664,066,181 a change of 30.17%

#FTSE #DOW #SP500 #DAX The period since the Brexit vote has proven quite stagnant from a FTSE perspective. Essentially, the market has produced a horizontal line at 7,215 points, moving above, moving below, but generally staggering back to the flat line. Thus far, every attempt to break this hiatus has failed, the UK index requiring movement above 7,850 to give a realistic signal for coming real growth. We can calculate an initial 7,950 with secondary at 8,200 points.

Alternately, weakness below 7,070 will probably give early warning for an iceberg ahead, taking the market into a zone with 5,850 looking like an attractive drop target!

Our usual rules, when this sort of nonsense appears, tell us to judge matters from a Big Picture perspective. Given this excruciatingly boring period commenced with an all time high on the FTSE, the suggestion is to expect the best. Therefore, if we treat the FTSE in a similar fashion to a share, apparently 8,200 has become a believable ambition! Time will tell.

Closer to home, the final 30 minutes of trade on Thursday saw the FTSE experience a near 50 point reversal, giving an otherwise lacklustre day a pretty solid kicking. It has created the situation where weakness continuing below 7442 points (Not as an opening second drop spike!) could generate traffic down to an initial 7417 points. If broken, secondary comes in at 7375 points.

However, if the drop was as contrived as it felt, more probable appears to be strength beyond 7470 leading to an initial 7492 points. If exceeded, secondary calculates at 7512 points. Balancing this, recently Fridays tend to be pretty useless and we’ll not be surprised to witness a bounce at 7417 points anyway.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:18:37PM	BRENT	58.6	58.6	58.215		59.34	59.68	59.98		58.6	‘cess
10:20:31PM	GOLD	1620.06	1613	1610.5		1621	1624	1629		1616	‘cess
10:23:03PM	FTSE	7450.79	7420	7403		7462	7481	7499.5			Shambles
10:24:32PM	FRANCE	6085.7	6054	6044		6104	6110	6129.5		6084	‘cess
10:27:21PM	GERMANY	13712.46	13645	13612		13713	13783	13806		13734	Shambles
10:29:26PM	US500	3367.97	3347	3334		3368	3388	3392.5		3373	Success
10:32:12PM	DOW	29177	29011	28875.5		29201	29236	29325		29125	Success
10:34:01PM	NASDAQ	9613	9536	9528		9593	9733	9821		9671	Success
10:37:04PM	JAPAN	23492	23410	23291.5		23516	23673	23796.5		23520

 

20/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7436 points. Change of -0.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,254,655,479 a change of 11.64%

19/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7457 points. Change of 1.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,602,530,865 a change of -6.87%

18/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7362 points. Change of -0.96%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,015,855,072 a change of 44.99%

17/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7433 points. Change of 0.32%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,149,027,770 a change of -24.37%

14/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7409 points. Change of -0.58%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,485,879,910 a change of -17.68%

13/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7452 points. Change of -1.09%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,664,066,181 a change of 30.17%

12/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7534 points. Change of 0.47%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,119,461,685 a change of -10.2%

 

#DAX #JAPAN News that RBS are ditching their “toxic” name outside Scotland, rebranding as NatWest, really isn’t a surprise. Generally, when a large organisation is in trouble, they’ll consolidate shares, mess with their advertising, fuss with their logo, or as a last ditch throw of the dice, change their name.

At time of writing, RBS is trading at 206p ( that’s 20.6p in pre-consolidation terms ) and it certainly looks clear the market failed to fall for their wizard wheeze of a 10:1 share ploy to make the value of RBS shares sound more respectable. To be fair, RBS are not the only retail bank with a lousy share price history. Lloyds for instance enjoyed a low of 34 in 2009 and is now trading at 55.78. Barclays hit 53p in 2009 and now, eleven years later, is trading at 176.

In fact, RBS with their low of 9.8p is doing slightly better than Lloyds, presently more than double their price when the sector crashed. But in comparison to most other shares in the FTSE 100, banking sector shares are about as popular as Laura Ashley.

The immediate situation for RBS is a bit fragrant with weakness next below 205 indicating the potential of travel down to 189p next. If broken, secondary calculates at 171p and we’d expect a rebound from such a level. The share price will require to close below 171p to justify running for the hills as it will take RBS into a region where “bottom” works out at 114p. We cannot calculate below such a point.

The funny thing, despite the share breaking below our last drop target of 208p, we shall be a little curious in the days ahead. The price only need exceed 217p to enter a cycle toward 227p next. If bettered, secondary is 237 but realistically, if positive news or market conditions are behind a rise, the price could easily accelerate to 252p.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:04:13PM	BRENT	58.98									Success
10:07:05PM	GOLD	1612.32									Success
10:10:28PM	FTSE	7458.81									Success
10:11:53PM	FRANCE	6101.2									‘cess
10:30:33PM	GERMANY	13780	13708	13675	13637	13758	13789	13801.75	13823	13743	‘cess
10:33:18PM	US500	3388.52									‘cess
10:35:07PM	DOW	29358
10:37:33PM	NASDAQ	9725									Success
10:39:44PM	JAPAN	23592	23341	23191	23029	23432	23682	23747.5	23967	23510	Success

 

19/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7457 points. Change of 1.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,602,530,865 a change of -6.87%

18/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7362 points. Change of -0.96%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,015,855,072 a change of 44.99%

17/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7433 points. Change of 0.32%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,149,027,770 a change of -24.37%

14/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7409 points. Change of -0.58%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,485,879,910 a change of -17.68%

13/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7452 points. Change of -1.09%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,664,066,181 a change of 30.17%

12/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7534 points. Change of 0.47%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,119,461,685 a change of -10.2%

11/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7499 points. Change of 0.71%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,701,269,309 a change of 0.17%

#FTSE #Nasdaq For many private investors, this lot must feel like watching a Party Political Broadcast, prompting the question of ‘how long can this agony last?’ Last reviewed in July last year (link) we’d proposed a bottom of 178p. It successfully hit this target on Tuesday. The big question now, will it bounce?

Visually, GKP needs above 197p at present to exceed Blue on the chart, entering a zone where some proper price recovery becomes possible. Such a miracle calculates with an initial, meagre, ambition at 201p with secondary, if exceeded, a more useful 220p. While the visuals suggest a glass ceiling can be expected at 220p, closure above such a level allows for a longer term 251p. Beyond such a level, we shall need stir the tea leaves again as the path to such a significant level will require scrutiny.

Unfortunately, it feels more likely 178p shall break anytime soon, provoking weakness next to an initial 170p with secondary, if broken, down at 153p. We’d hope the calculation of a potential 153p shall prove incorrect as this will take the price below the dip at the end of 2018, solidly in a zone where negative news could swiftly drive 125 or below.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:12:28PM	BRENT	57.48									‘cess
10:15:06PM	GOLD	1602.67									Success
10:17:29PM	FTSE	7403.44	7350	7312	7229	7423	7407	7429.5	7456	7367	‘cess
10:19:37PM	FRANCE	6071.7									‘cess
10:26:12PM	GERMANY	13708									Success
10:28:48PM	US500	3371.47									Success
10:31:11PM	DOW	29241									Success
10:33:47PM	NASDAQ	9632.22	9525	9514.5	9479	9570	9647	9667	9713	9570	Success
10:37:05PM	JAPAN	23205									Success

18/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7362 points. Change of -0.96%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,015,855,072 a change of 44.99%

17/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7433 points. Change of 0.32%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,149,027,770 a change of -24.37%

14/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7409 points. Change of -0.58%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,485,879,910 a change of -17.68%

13/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7452 points. Change of -1.09%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,664,066,181 a change of 30.17%

12/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7534 points. Change of 0.47%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,119,461,685 a change of -10.2%

11/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7499 points. Change of 0.71%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,701,269,309 a change of 0.17%

10/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7446 points. Change of -0.27%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,691,847,581 a change of -12.91%

#Gold #SP500For some reason, we’ve had a pile of “health” companies feature in our emails. Optibiotix are the latest request, a company whose focus looks to be feeding the pro-biotic market and its perceived healthy gut benefits. If nothing else, they doubtless contribute to ceaseless adverts featuring eye candy running around on beaches, actors proving their real advantage was genetic!

It can be assumed the writer has an axe to grind, once consuming virtually every type of “healthy gut” product during a prolonged period prior to diagnosis of Coeliac Disease, the gluten intolerance thing. Since eliminating gluten from the diet, all musical gut productions ceased, along with a healthier wallet thanks to no longer purchasing pro-biotic products.

Optibiotix share price has proven interesting this year, suggesting it need only trade above 72p to produce some real growth with an initial target calculating at 83p. If exceeded, our secondary comes in at 96p. If triggered, visually there’s a change of some hesitation at 83p, along with a near certainty of a glass ceiling should 96p be achieved.

Only with closure above 96p will we dare admit the price will look capable of challenging 2018’s high of 133p.

If trouble is planned, the price needs reverse below Red, presently 48p, to justify hysterics. Initially we’re able to calculate drop target of 39p but the real danger comes if such a level breaks. Simply put, we can’t calculate a bottom.

For now, it looks pretty capable of displaying some growth anytime soon. Perhaps the share price is awaiting the release of some important news.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:29:52PM	BRENT	57.45									‘cess
9:34:25PM	GOLD	1581.54	1579	1577.5	1575	1584	1585	1589	1593	1578
9:36:32PM	FTSE	7429	7403
9:38:22PM	FRANCE	6081.5	6055
9:39:55PM	GERMANY	13786	13749
9:41:52PM	US500	3388.92	3379	3376.5	3371	3390	3391	3395.5	3406	3382
9:43:35PM	DOW	29473	29400
9:45:32PM	NASDAQ	9660.62	9646								‘cess
9:48:01PM	JAPAN	23498	23324								‘cess

 

 

17/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7433 points. Change of 0.32%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,149,027,770 a change of -24.37%

14/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7409 points. Change of -0.58%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,485,879,910 a change of -17.68%

13/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7452 points. Change of -1.09%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,664,066,181 a change of 30.17%

12/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7534 points. Change of 0.47%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,119,461,685 a change of -10.2%

11/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7499 points. Change of 0.71%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,701,269,309 a change of 0.17%

10/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7446 points. Change of -0.27%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,691,847,581 a change of -12.91%

7/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7466 points. Change of -0.51%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,535,596,145 a change of 5.4%

#Brent #Dax Currently, Bitcoin is cheerfully ignoring conventional trends, instead paying scrupulous attention to a “horizontal trend”. As mentioned previously, the phenomena of ‘The Glass Ceiling’ has been scrupulously adhered to since September last year. This confirmation of a trend is usually a pretty safe signal for future movement and in the case of Bitcoin, it’s at 10,580 dollars.

Visually, movements above 10,580 look capable of providing gains against Bitcoin to an initial 11,744 with secondary, if beaten, calculating at 12,720. Importantly, if Bitcoin opts to adhere is its usual movement ‘rules’, some hesitation can be anticipated at each target level, should the scenario trigger!

Of course, there’s absolutely no certainty we should anticipate future growth. Instead, the converse looks pretty possible.

Weakness continuing below 9,610 suggests downward travel to an initial 8,916 dollars. If broken, secondary works out at 7,665 and we’d hope for a rebound at such a level. The implications, with any breach of 7,665, are grim. The existence of a 3rd level drop target of 6,079 takes the price into the land of ‘lower lows’ with a logical long term bottom at 3,145 dollars.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:43:20PM	BRENT	57.29	56.12	55.68	55.09	56.83	57.35	57.5275	57.83	56.7	‘cess
9:44:45PM	GOLD	1584.23									‘cess
9:46:40PM	FTSE	7416.6									‘cess
9:48:39PM	FRANCE	6073.2
9:50:19PM	GERMANY	13764	13706	13691.5	13659	13758	13789	13821.5	13860	13727
9:51:51PM	US500	3382.22									‘cess
9:53:54PM	DOW	29416.5
9:55:18PM	NASDAQ	9626.67
9:57:59PM	JAPAN	23537									‘cess

 

14/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7409 points. Change of -0.58%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,485,879,910 a change of -17.68%

13/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7452 points. Change of -1.09%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,664,066,181 a change of 30.17%

12/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7534 points. Change of 0.47%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,119,461,685 a change of -10.2%

11/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7499 points. Change of 0.71%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,701,269,309 a change of 0.17%

10/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7446 points. Change of -0.27%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,691,847,581 a change of -12.91%

7/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7466 points. Change of -0.51%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,535,596,145 a change of 5.4%

6/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7504 points. Change of 0.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,200,545,970 a change of -22.21%

#FTSE #DOW Centrica must be tempting a bunch of folk hoping to jump in, viewing the price as a “bargain”. We have doubts, hoping it shall bounce around the 60p mark but worried, ‘cos if broken, the big picture suggests “bottom” may reside around 40p. Needs a miracle above the 90p level to foul up these prospects!

As for the FTSE for Friday, we’re more than a little concerned about the drop experienced on Thursday. When we issued our 10am report to clients, we’d speculated on the market achieving a bottom at 7407 points. Somehow or other, the FTSE contrived to reach 7406.9 around 11:30am, showing half hearted bounces in the period since. Despite a bunch of day traders doubtless viewing the chart, gleefully assuming “double bottom” and expecting Friday to show gains, we’re not entirely convinced. There’s something a bit funny going on with international futures – mainland Europe and the US behaving as if Friday should experience recovery, the FTSE rather less so.

Weakness now below 7406 points calculates with an initial drop target at 7368 points. If (when) broken, our secondary comes along at  7310 points and we’d hope for a real bounce at such a level. If triggered, tightest stop is at 7442 points.

In the event the market (the FTSE during trading hours) manages above 7442, our initial ambition is for movement to 7470 points. If bettered, secondary calculates up at 7503 points.

This week has been difficult and we suspect health fears have knocked the FTSE off its track to head to 7690 points

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:11:28PM	BRENT	56.48	55	54.505		55.81	56.8	57.1875		55.8	‘cess
10:13:24PM	GOLD	1576.78	1564	1559.5		1573	1579	1580.5		1571	Success
10:15:26PM	FTSE	7453.67	7402	7393.5		7452	7473	7483		7415	Success
10:17:25PM	FRANCE	6084.7	6025	5999		6063	6099	6116		6049	‘cess
10:19:27PM	GERMANY	13743.16	13667	13649		13732	13762	13789.5		13708	‘cess
10:21:48PM	US500	3380.07	3354	3344.5		3373	3381	3385.355		3363	‘cess
10:24:03PM	DOW	29465	29308	29234		29400	29528	29589.5		29411	Success
10:26:15PM	NASDAQ	9617.27	9514	9478.5		9590	9637	9665		9585	‘cess
10:28:24PM	JAPAN	23727	23564	23507.5		23679	23782	23823		23687	Success

 

13/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7452 points. Change of -1.09%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,664,066,181 a change of 30.17%

12/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7534 points. Change of 0.47%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,119,461,685 a change of -10.2%

11/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7499 points. Change of 0.71%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,701,269,309 a change of 0.17%

10/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7446 points. Change of -0.27%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,691,847,581 a change of -12.91%

7/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7466 points. Change of -0.51%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,535,596,145 a change of 5.4%

6/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7504 points. Change of 0.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,200,545,970 a change of -22.21%

5/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7482 points. Change of 0.58%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,970,542,064 a change of 19.14%