Trends And Targets

#France #WallSt Two recent stories standout as frightening in the days of Covid-19. Firstly, news the Scottish Govt intended to ban the sale of alcohol during the crisis (a joke thankfully). Secondly, local council health fascists attempting to define Chocolate Eggs as ‘non-essential’ proved not to be a joke. Thankfully supermarkets quickly opted not to restrict the sale of Easter eggs, doubtless hoping for a buying frenzy. Either story risked igniting public unrest!

Of course, the price of chocolate eggs always verges on theft, especially if you spoil the moment by comparing the actual weight of an Easter egg with a normal bar of chocolate. Very quickly, you start to appreciate there is a bigger area of corporate theft than the price of Epson printer inks! None of this has anything to do with Qinetiq’s share price, other than a reminder the Coronavirus event casts its shadow everywhere. We even had ‘Queenie’ channeling her inner Vera Lynn with her wartime speech, reminding us ‘We’ll Meet Again’. The mention of war did remind us to review Qinetiq, given the companies focus.

 

At present, the price is trading at 321p and needs below 232p to suggest someone’s noticed you can’t shoot Superflu germs down with a missile. Such a triggering movement risks reversal to an initial 201p, along with a doubtless fake rebound. But should 201p break, the price could easily nosedive down to 136p as a bottom, hopefully. There is a threat below 136p and it’s visually quite absurd.

Apparently, should 136p, our ultimate bottom calculation works out at just 9p! Aside from some exquisite calculations, nothing visually justifies such a result. Hopefully, the low of 2010 shall provide (if any of this scenario triggers) ample excuse for a rebound, somewhere around the 95p level.

 

This analysis remains part of our “what if it all goes wrong” series. It’s perhaps worth pointing out Qinetiq only need trade above 352p to give some hope for the immediate future. Such a triggering level allows recovery to an initial 393p. If bettered, secondary calculates at a far less likely (in todays environment) of 441p, a new all-time high. Maybe they SHALL design a missile which can shoot down a virus…

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:26:20PM	BRENT	33.17									Shambles
10:28:03PM	GOLD	1650.29
10:33:26PM	FTSE	5614.64									Success
10:36:09PM	FRANCE	4367	4363	4299	4222	4423	4528	4581	4639	4425	Success
10:39:28PM	GERMANY	10186									Success
10:59:23PM	US500	2648									Success
11:05:18PM	DOW	22605	22402	21929	21363	22816	23627	23798	23926	23200	Success
11:08:55PM	NASDAQ	8025									Success
11:11:13PM	JAPAN	18981									Success

 

7/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5704 points. Change of 2.19%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,941,411,250 a change of 28.33%

6/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5582 points. Change of 3.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,188,185,847 a change of 7.79%

3/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5415 points. Change of -1.19%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,740,716,351 a change of -13.64%

2/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5480 points. Change of 0.48%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,647,447,638 a change of -4.67%

1/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5454 points. Change of -3.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,973,403,008 a change of -12.8%

31/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5671 points. Change of -1.6%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,996,950,957 a change of 37.36%

30/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5763 points. Change of 4.59%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,821,744,739 a change of -29.22%

 

#Gold #SP500 In our glance at “what if it all goes wrong” share prices, the style of Covid-19 Mortality presentation reminds of the awful football results program on Saturday afternoons in the 1970s. In a house awaiting Dr Who on a Saturday evening, the dirge of dreary football results was detested. How could the BBC even think people were interested in football! For those who ignore history, in the 1970s there were mostly 3 TV channels showing garbage, mostly. Aside from the number of channels, the output remains the same, mostly.

 

It was something of a surprise to discover Manchester United are listed on the New York Stock Exchange, their share price behaving with greater probity than witnessed a few years ago when we covered Glasgow Ranger’s listing, an offering which ended in tears and tantrums. The debate continues, are the current Rangers Football Club an entirely new business or one justified in displaying trophy’s won by the original team?

An article on players’ salaries informed us, alongside an obvious risk of Sky TV wanting their money back for games unplayed, some trouble is queuing up to give football clubs a bit of a kicking.

 

For Manchester United, we’ve allocated a trigger level at 11.4 dollars, the scenario suggesting weakness below such a level allows a shot in the direction of 9.2 dollars. If broken, our secondary calculation (and the point at which we’d REALLY hope for a bounce) works out at 5.2 dollars.

There’s a very big problem if any initial surge breaks below 5.2 as we cannot comfortably calculate an ultimate bottom. Perhaps 0.4 will suffice, perhaps not. Regardless, it looks absolutely absurd. Equally difficult for the naked eye to digest (?) is the downtrend since 2018 as it suggests Manchester’s share price needs exceed 19.1 dollars presently to suggest it’s climbing out of trouble. At present, the price is showing an unhealthy fascination for the uptrend (Red) since 2012, the price oscillating above and below this historical remnant. This sort of holding pattern, following a previous break of a trend, never fills us with confidence.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:14:14PM	BRENT	33.78
10:16:16PM	GOLD	1662.52	1630	1618.5	1602	1644	1669	1683.75	1717	1630	Success
10:19:19PM	FTSE	5634.84									Success
10:28:57PM	FRANCE	4396.5									‘cess
10:31:20PM	GERMANY	10218									Success
10:34:29PM	US500	2657	2572	2552.5	2511	2600	2661	2674.5	2754	2596	Success
10:37:01PM	DOW	22633									Success
10:38:57PM	NASDAQ	8051.75									Success
10:40:53PM	JAPAN	18872									Success

 

6/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5582 points. Change of 3.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,188,185,847 a change of 7.79%

3/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5415 points. Change of -1.19%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,740,716,351 a change of -13.64%

2/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5480 points. Change of 0.48%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,647,447,638 a change of -4.67%

1/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5454 points. Change of -3.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,973,403,008 a change of -12.8%

31/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5671 points. Change of -1.6%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,996,950,957 a change of 37.36%

30/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5763 points. Change of 4.59%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,821,744,739 a change of -29.22%

27/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5510 points. Change of -5.25%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,225,273,197 a change of 4.62%

 

#Brent #DAX This week, we’re going to focus on a few “what if it all goes wrong” shares. A plea, tweeted by a BBC guy, begged people to purchase a newspaper, due to their sales and advertising revenue crashing. Certainly, a feeling of guilt pervaded when judging going out to buy our weekly local newspaper did not constitute an essential journey. But as for buying national newspapers, that habit died years ago.

Reach PLC own rather a few local newspapers, along with a few national titles which, personally, had never been on a shopping list – aside as possible replacements should any toilet paper shortage continue! And worse, their share price is on the edge of some quite troubling movement.

 

Near term, weakness below 90p looks very capable of a journey down to an initial 84p. Despite there being slight hope for a rebound should such a level appear, some caution is warranted should 84p break. Such a scenario gives a secondary calculation down at 49p.

The 49p level almost has to create an excuse for a proper bounce except for an important detail.

An ambition such as this takes the share price below the low of 2019 and theoretically is the lowest we should calculate. Most of our sums give any ultimate bottom below 49p prefaced with impossible minus signs. Just one calculation fails to agree and it presents an “ultimate bottom” of 19p, neatly matching the share price lows of 2009 and 2012.

 

Certainly, if 19p were ever to appear, it presents a very strong “fingers crossed” entry point.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
2:57:13PM	BRENT	35.07	32.23	31.405	30.15	34.45	35.17	36.05	36.28	32.64	‘cess
2:59:26PM	GOLD	1621.14
4:29:18PM	FTSE	5389.11
4:31:00PM	FRANCE	4139.2									‘cess
4:33:01PM	GERMANY	9540.54	9438	9398.5	9323	9563	9625	9674	9754	9465
4:35:42PM	US500	2491.27
7:13:36PM	DOW	21074
7:15:56PM	NASDAQ	7541
7:19:03PM	JAPAN	17680									Success

 

3/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5415 points. Change of -1.19%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,740,716,351 a change of -13.64%

2/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5480 points. Change of 0.48%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,647,447,638 a change of -4.67%

1/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5454 points. Change of -3.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,973,403,008 a change of -12.8%

31/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5671 points. Change of -1.6%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,996,950,957 a change of 37.36%

30/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5763 points. Change of 4.59%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,821,744,739 a change of -29.22%

27/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5510 points. Change of -5.25%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,225,273,197 a change of 4.62%

26/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5815 points. Change of 2.23%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,862,267,552 a change of -16.24%

#FTSE #DAX #GOLD Sorry we skipped a day. Database issues… News of US Jobless claims once again doubling to yet another all time record was greeted by Wall St reeling in shock, achieving a 2.2% gain. We’d warned about this “risk” and were amused, seeing the US close the session at 21,393 points. Our target; 21,395 points! This time round, we doubt if the employment gain shall follow through, thanks to the US’s Monthly Payroll figures being released tomorrow, the first Friday of April.

Despite the market making a considerable effort to close the session in safe territory, any travel below 21,116 points is liable to prove traumatic, giving the potential of a fall to 21,600 with secondary 20,320 points!

As for the FTSE for FRIDAY, the UK market is showing some quite strange potentials. Now above 5,553 points and further recovery toward an initial 5,604 points calculates as possible. If exceeded, our secondary works out at 5,625 points. Unfortunately, the index closed the session at 5,480 and doesn’t require much in the way of trouble to provoke some reversals.

Now below 5,450 risks proving an issue, computing at an initial 5,391 with secondary, if broken, down at 5,325 points.

 

Have a good weekend, stay well, and remember the foregoing applies to the markets, not after hours futures.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:50:12PM	BRENT	29.92	26.8	24.175		27.95	31.05	34.515		29.16	Success
10:53:22PM	GOLD	1615	1582	1567		1598	1620	1634		1584	Success
10:55:09PM	FTSE	5496	5397	5346.5		5473	5561	5587.5		5447	Success
11:03:03PM	FRANCE	4230.5	4150	4122		4213	4265	4288.5		4193
11:05:11PM	GERMANY	9602	9336	9116		9501	9657	9732		9500	‘cess
11:09:47PM	US500	2525	2436	2420		2510	2540	2553		2468	‘cess
11:12:37PM	DOW	21421	21000	20692.5		21290	21495	21672.5		21130	‘cess
11:15:58PM	NASDAQ	7650.99	7424	7366.5		7535	7673	7691.5		7577	‘cess
11:18:29PM	JAPAN	18063	17750	17696		17936	18119	18159.5		17833	Shambles

2/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5480 points. Change of 0.48%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,647,447,638 a change of -4.67%

1/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5454 points. Change of -3.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,973,403,008 a change of -12.8%

31/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5671 points. Change of -1.6%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,996,950,957 a change of 37.36%

30/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5763 points. Change of 4.59%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,821,744,739 a change of -29.22%

27/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5510 points. Change of -5.25%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,225,273,197 a change of 4.62%

26/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5815 points. Change of 2.23%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,862,267,552 a change of -16.24%

25/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5688 points. Change of 4.44%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,386,988,784 a change of 9.28%

 

#CAC40 #Gold #DOW Traditionally, we would consider producing some sort of absurd analysis for 1st April in homage to April Fools Day. However, about the best we hope for is a grinning Prime Minister saying “gotcha” on the pavement outside Downing St. Somehow, this appears as unlikely as our immediate positive outlook against the Dow Jones.

Following a truly confused day, the index managed to close at 21,927 points. It “only” needs above 22,480 to be viewed as entering a cycle to an initial 23,126 points with secondary, if exceeded, calculating up at 24,725 points. These numbers are supposed to be “Big Picture” scenario but thanks to the width of many recent daily movements, it would not take much for a day to go utterly crazy.

However, we have some doubts. As the chart inset highlights, the US market opted to pay homage to the Blue downtrend, ensuring the index failed to break upward. This being the case, it appears some reversal shall be on the cards.

Weakness now below 21,850 computes with an initial drop target at 21,606 points. If broken, secondary is at 21,406 points but importantly, the index shall find itself in a zone where a sharp reversal to 20,640 becomes painfully possible.

Always remember we are looking at The Dow only and NOT after-hours futures.

 

Finally, a lot has been said about Virus Tourists, these folk turning up at remote locations with Mobile Homes and Caravans, or in the case of Prince Charles, by private jet. Here in Argyll, Scotland, a new type of tourist has appeared. A few reasonably sized boats have dropped anchor in the bay, presumably fully stocked with toilet roll and booze as the occupants have not ventured ashore. To be fair, envy is the only emotion and hopefully, the weather remains calm for the occupiers.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:22:14PM	BRENT	26.03									‘cess
10:24:13PM	GOLD	1578.88	1573	1567.5	1542	1603	1618	1633	1653	1592	Success
10:26:19PM	FTSE	5594.23									‘cess
10:28:35PM	FRANCE	4345.2	4315	4289.5	4230	4346	4433	4454	4507	4356	Success
10:50:44PM	GERMANY	9794.86									‘cess
10:53:19PM	US500	2578.47									Shambles
10:56:23PM	DOW	21868									‘cess
10:58:02PM	NASDAQ	7800.62									Success
10:59:54PM	JAPAN	18672									Sorry

31/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5671 points. Change of -1.6%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,996,950,957 a change of 37.36%

30/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5763 points. Change of 4.59%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,821,744,739 a change of -29.22%

2

 

#DOW #Brent #SP500 There’s something unsettling about the 5th largest economy in the world (the UK!) needing the NHS aided with crowdfunding, as we try to cope with the effects of Covid-19. It’s about as disturbing as one of these “xyz Relief” charity events, fronted by entertainment/sports millionaires (who’re being paid for their presence) in usually successful efforts to part the gullible from their money. It’s easy to conclude the public are seen as a soft touch, unthinking in their wish to hope they are doing the right thing.

This period of self-isolation continues to provide ample opportunity to over-think everything as the foregoing proves. Some light relief came when burning the contents of the “recycling” bin. Apparently our local council is far from unusual in suspending collections, a glance at the overflowing bin revealing it’s mostly full of flammable items. Thus, the area designated as the burning pit for debris from the trees in the garden was retasked, giving pause for thought when an overlooked plastic bottle of white spirit dregs ignited quite energetically. Judging by occasional black smoke clouds around the loch, it looks like we’re not the only folk finding a new source of entertainment.

 

Other residents in the Land of Gullible risk being market traders. We’ve reported our conclusion the markets risk being trapped for a while, stuffed into a trading range while we await the next major push (it could be up, it could be down). Monday proved such a day, the FTSE swinging from nearly 2% down to end the session nearly 1% up. Visually, there’s a risk the market intends to be trapped between 5,350 and 5,800 points or so.

At present, if the FTSE somehow manages above 5,935 points, there’s a pretty strong chance the rise shall prove genuine. A movement such as this risks triggering a further 500 point surge upward. Early warning for a miracle looks like movement now above 5,822 points.

Equally, below 5,470 risks providing early warning for a reversal toward 5,260 points. Confirmation shall be regarded as coming if the index wanders below 5,350 points.

 

As for Wall St, it has parked itself for the last 3 sessions, trapped in a useful 1,100 point range between  21,400 and 22,500 points or so.

Movement now above 22,380 is supposed to be capable of a lift to an initial 22,492 which is believable. If exceeded, secondary calculates at a more dubious 22,845 points. While writing this, news of a US Navy hospital ship docking in New York harbour has appeared, a distance just 8 miles from Wall St.

The alternate, and more likely, scenario is of weakness now below 21,830 taking Wall St down to 21,486 points. If broken, secondary calculates at 21,260 points. This is dangerous (and risks breaking the “parked” theory, driving the US index into a region where it could swiftly lose a further 700 points.

 

We live in interesting times.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:37:13PM	BRENT	26.36	25.02	23.48	20.59	26.75	26.95	27.51	28.27	25.27	Success
10:45:03PM	GOLD	1625.19
10:47:51PM	FTSE	5583.22									‘cess
10:50:05PM	FRANCE	4397
10:56:52PM	GERMANY	9875									‘cess
10:59:20PM	US500	2627.04	2505	2484.5	2435	2550	2634	2654	2688	2585	Shambles
11:02:01PM	DOW	22363
11:05:05PM	NASDAQ	7865									‘cess
11:06:51PM	JAPAN	19083

 

 

30/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5763 points. Change of 4.59%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,821,744,739 a change of -29.22%

27/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5510 points. Change of -5.25%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,225,273,197 a change of 4.62%

26/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5815 points. Change of 2.23%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,862,267,552 a change of -16.24%

25/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5688 points. Change of 4.44%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,386,988,784 a change of 9.28%

24/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5446 points. Change of 9.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,589,991,645 a change of -7.97%

23/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 4993 points. Change of -3.8%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,333,810,024 a change of -32.33%

20/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5190 points. Change of 0.76%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 13,793,008,167 a change of 30.09%

 

#Gold #Nasdaq The headline, the BBC has closed down their Scottish news service, ensuring all news is controlled by London is scary. Thankfully, both Sky and RT appear to be following a different agenda, ensuring reportage of “the lockdown” has more than Derbyshire polices slanted perspective! A gloom laden weekend prompted the thought, not “how low ill the markets go. Instead, will there be markets once this is all over?”

Equally, stories of governments, the world over, printing money to alleviate hardship through these difficult times tends prompt the question; “how will nations cope with such record levels of increased National Debt?” Of course, perhaps a simple solution shall be for governments to simply cancel the added debt they owe themselves if this crisis ever ends. Then again, wasn’t this the behaviour which provoked hyper-inflation in Germany in the years prior to WW2? Maybe if all governments cancel their debt at the same time, the world shall dodge such a risk.

 

It’s proving amusing watching economists tying themselves in knots, trying to predict what will happen once lockdown completes. Given the current situation is completely new, it feels like we are just going to have to wait and see. It’s pretty certain many small businesses will never be able to re-open without eventual debt forgiveness as few are insured for current events, fewer still will have financial reserves to cope with prolonged lockdown.

 

To escape from overthinking immediate events, we’ve taken a look at Wall St and shall comment against it, daily, for the coming week. The Big Picture number on the DOW is at 18,000 points. Essentially, movement below such a level allows for panic, thanks to reversal to 14,000 being pretty likely. Unfortunately, recent moves on the index already risk troubling this level.

Now below 21,450 allows weakness toward an initial 20,392 points. If broken, secondary calculates at 19,643 points. At this level, we need to take a deep breath and steady our hands as we compute the third level, should 19,643 break. It’s down at 17,190 points, obviously breaking the 18,000 trigger and risking really severe reversals.

HOWEVER, there is something worthy of consideration and it’s shown on the chart inset. The DOW broke the uptrend since 2009 and somehow, despite world (and NY) events, has recovered above this important trend. Due to this, allegedly it’s now the case of movement above 22,330 allowing a journey to 23,207 to commence. If exceeded, secondary calculates at 24,415 points.

We’re pretty far from convinced unless some bloke, working in his garden shed in Sheffield, has a big surprise cure to announce.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
8:56:29PM	BRENT	27.78									Success
8:57:57PM	GOLD	1632.89	1610	1597.5	1582	1630	1644	1661	1715	1609
9:00:09PM	FTSE	5443.97
9:13:50PM	FRANCE	4324									‘cess
9:42:34PM	GERMANY	9550.01
9:43:55PM	US500	2532.77
9:46:36PM	DOW	21551
9:48:45PM	NASDAQ	7575	7565	7504	7369	7688	7820	7874.5	7977	7700
9:50:55PM	JAPAN	18740									‘cess

 

 

27/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5510 points. Change of -5.25%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,225,273,197 a change of 4.62%

26/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5815 points. Change of 2.23%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,862,267,552 a change of -16.24%

25/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5688 points. Change of 4.44%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,386,988,784 a change of 9.28%

24/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5446 points. Change of 9.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,589,991,645 a change of -7.97%

23/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 4993 points. Change of -3.8%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,333,810,024 a change of -32.33%

20/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5190 points. Change of 0.76%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 13,793,008,167 a change of 30.09%

19/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5151 points. Change of 1.4%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 10,602,721,602 a change of 9.14%