Trends And Targets

#Gold #SP500 Some “made up” buzzwords are irritating. #Quiz_PLC, a fashion retailer in the news, due to allegedly sourcing from a Leicester supplier who paid their staff £3 per hour, also managed to irritate by using the term ‘Omni-channel’ in boasting about their Fast Fashion. Omni-channel, in this instance, mean they wish to treat all customers the same, regardless of where their business came from. Surely, if in retail, this must be a primary aim anyway!

Obviously, Telecoms, Energy, and Insurers use quite different approaches, generally treating all clients terribly but they’re not really front line retail.

 

For Quiz Group, we’ve got a thing about 4.5p. This is the price level we cannot reliably calculate below as closure below such a point ensures all our numbers are prefaced by minus signs. There’s a bit of a “maybe” at the 2p level but if we’re realistic, the Big Picture demands 4.5p should be the ultimate bottom. Quiz are therefore mildly interesting, despite the usual Covid-19 excuses, the lowest the share price has achieved was 4.75p. Who knows, perhaps this indicates an inherent strength and therefore we should start looking now for bounce potentials.

 

At present, we shall not be terribly impressed unless this retailer manages exceed 8.7p. This looks very capable of triggering recovery to an initial 10.1p with secondary, if exceeded, up at 11.75p. Perhaps more importantly, this also takes the share price into a region where positive news could rapidly drive recovery to 16p.

Unfortunately, this is about the end of the good news, thanks to Quiz Group experiencing some truly dire reversals since their AIM listing in 2017. This was a share which once traded above 2 quid, resulting in the situation where it’s a risky punt. After all, something caused its steady reversal over the last couple of years, so perhaps some research should be justified.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:15:06PM	BRENT	42.35									Shambles
10:19:54PM	GOLD	1803.1	1800	1796	1790	1811	1816	1819.5	1828	1803	‘cess
10:25:11PM	FTSE	6108.79									‘cess
10:27:30PM	FRANCE	4971									Success
10:45:41PM	GERMANY	12576									Success
10:55:23PM	US500	3157.27	3145	3121	3083	3200	3200	3218	3241	3170	Success
10:57:55PM	DOW	26093									Success
11:02:29PM	NASDAQ	10616									Success
11:04:30PM	JAPAN										Shambles

13/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6176 points. Change of 1.33%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,893,865,356 a change of -14.27%

10/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6095 points. Change of 0.76%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,542,024,650 a change of -0.44%

9/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6049 points. Change of -1.74%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,562,272,376 a change of 3.26%

8/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6156 points. Change of -0.53%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,418,238,580 a change of -6.59%

7/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6189 points. Change of -1.53%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,730,023,410 a change of 2.54%

6/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6285 points. Change of 2.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,612,670,070 a change of 43.54%

3/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6157 points. Change of -1.33%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,213,499,960 a change of -37.56%

#DAX #BRENT Thankfully, few things are as safe as the 100p level being illustrated by #RBS as the lowest the share price can go. Of course, we’re being sarcastic, especially as the share has broken the original Covid-19 inspired drop on 3 different occasions. This is not a comforting signal, quite the converse as all sorts of bad stuff is now available! The immediate situation is actually fairly frightening, the price could more than half without too much effort.

 

Writ large is the important detail “ultimate bottom” now calculates at 51p, this being the price level we cannot calculate closure below. The share price requires exceed Blue (147p currently) on the chart below to utterly remove this calculation potential, so there’s a bit of a miracle required. Even near term, weakness below 100p now indicates the threat of reversal to an initial 94p with secondary, if broken, down at 78 and hopefully a proper rebound.

Who knows, perhaps the idiom, “it ain’t going down, so should go up” shall apply in this case but we’re loathe to place emphasis on it, thanks to the price trading below initial Covid-19 drop levels. However, we prefer always check both sides of the coin when examining price movement ideas. With this in mind, even above 138p should give early warning for a miracle rise in the weeks ahead, ticking a very small box which  shall alert us to an early growth potential.

Above 138p allegedly allows for growth to an initial trend challenging 148p with secondary, if bettered, at a visually extraordinary 174p. In fact, thanks to a few movement gaps, the price could easily accelerate to 182p without difficulty. The only problem?

We doubt it, thanks to the shares track record. RBS share price is behaving as if a Covid-19 2nd wave is a forgone conclusion, rather than a theory.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
11:24:52AM	BRENT	43.37	41.37	40.915	40.06	42.11	43.4	43.5	44.21		‘cess
11:28:44AM	GOLD	1799.16									Shambles
11:33:52AM	FTSE	6133.55									‘cess
11:43:31AM	FRANCE	4997.8									Success
11:46:05AM	GERMANY	12727	12541	12436.5	12300	12622	12733	12781.5	12836	12620	Success
12:12:46PM	US500	3190									Shambles
12:20:57PM	DOW	26106									‘cess
12:23:24PM	NASDAQ	10856									‘cess
12:25:51PM	JAPAN	22605									Shambles

 

 

10/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6095 points. Change of 0.76%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,542,024,650 a change of -0.44%

9/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6049 points. Change of -1.74%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,562,272,376 a change of 3.26%

8/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6156 points. Change of -0.53%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,418,238,580 a change of -6.59%

7/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6189 points. Change of -1.53%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,730,023,410 a change of 2.54%

6/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6285 points. Change of 2.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,612,670,070 a change of 43.54%

3/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6157 points. Change of -1.33%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,213,499,960 a change of -37.56%

2/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6240 points. Change of 1.35%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,146,759,435 a change of -4.07%

Sometimes it feels the #FTSE cannot pass a cliff without throwing itself off. Whereas the #DAX appears to see a cliff and try to climb. Is it a Covid-19 thing or is it a looming UK internal problem? Repeated polls in Scotland now show a majority favouring “freedom!”, certain to provoke nerves in Britain. Who knows,

 

A fairly simple illustration comes if we view each index’ rate of acceleration since the March 16th Covid-19 drop. For the FTSE to equal the DAX’s pace, it would already be showing a recovery high around 6,800 points. Instead, the best we’ve seen has been a slovenly 6,500 points and worse, the UK index appears to have faltered recovery and now, to be blunt, is getting scary. Again! The DAX on the other hand achieved 12,900 points whereas had it moved at similar pace to the FTSE, the best we’d expect would be 12,000 points. The implication gives a 7.5% better pace for Germany.

 

Germany on the other hand, presently trading around 12,500 points, seems no more frightening than a Donald Trump drunken late night tweet. The immediate situation against the DAX suggests weakness below 12,450 risks losing a few hundred points as the index collapses to a trend testing 12,209 points. We’d certainly be concerned if the market opts to spoil the party by gapping (manipulating) the index below the immediate Red uptrend (12,200 points) anytime soon as this risks some fairly nippy treatment. Such a scenario will imply coming weakness to 11,650 with secondary, once any fake bounce completes, at a bottom (hopefully) of 10,870 points. We’ve used the word “hopefully” deliberately, thanks to weakness below this Red uptrend taking the index into a region where 9,200 calculates as an eventual drop level; but only with a bunch of other criteria satisfied.

That’s about the end of the misery department as the DAX only need better 12,850 to enter a zone which threatens further recovery to 13,300 with secondary at a fairly useful 14,000 points.

As for the FTSE for Friday, as mentioned the UK market did its usual Lemming thing on Thursday, creating the situation where weakness next below 6,040 should bring the index down to an initial 5,990 or so. Hopefully it rebounds from such a level as travel below calculates with 5,920 as the next point at which we’d hope for a rebound.

At present, we’ll not be inclined to regard a miracle recovery on the FTSE (as always, we are discussing the live market, NOT after hours futures) unless the index betters 6,090 as this looks capable of recovery to an initial 6,127 points. If exceeded, secondary calculates at a useful 6,185 points and will imply Thursdays drop should be treated as “fake” with the promise of further recovery.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:17:43PM	BRENT	42.45	42	41.89		42.78	43.57	43.845		43	Success
10:19:55PM	GOLD	1803.86	1795	1791.5		1805	1808	1812		1798
10:22:32PM	FTSE	6072.22	6052	6039.5		6111	6135	6155.5		6103	Success
10:26:14PM	FRANCE	4941	4927	4903		4959	5002	5034.5		4964	Success
10:28:48PM	GERMANY	12567	12510	12418		12588	12605	12623		12535	‘cess
10:30:54PM	US500	3152.62	3133	3112		3163	3161	3169		3135	Shambles
10:55:58PM	DOW	25701	25601	25503		25760	25970	26118		25786	Success
10:58:06PM	NASDAQ	10736	10682	10657.5		10741	10786	10791.5		10723	‘cess
11:00:24PM	JAPAN	22367	22267	22212		22395	22550	22635		22445	Success

 

9/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6049 points. Change of -1.74%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,562,272,376 a change of 3.26%

8/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6156 points. Change of -0.53%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,418,238,580 a change of -6.59%

7/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6189 points. Change of -1.53%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,730,023,410 a change of 2.54%

6/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6285 points. Change of 2.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,612,670,070 a change of 43.54%

3/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6157 points. Change of -1.33%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,213,499,960 a change of -37.56%

2/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6240 points. Change of 1.35%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,146,759,435 a change of -4.07%

1/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6157 points. Change of -0.19%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,364,963,061 a change of 0.93%

#Brent #Japan We’ve received numerous emails recently regarding Amigo, generally thought as being one step above the licensed loan sharks which thankfully appear to have vanished from our TV screens. Regardless Amigo’s share price is troubling, managing to actually trade below the Covid-19 market drop, a pretty unusual state of play and one which doubtless justifies the questions being asked.

 

Our “ultimate bottom”, the level below which we cannot calculate, worked out at 10.6p with the initial Covid-19 drop almost exactly hitting this level. To be pedantic, the share price actually achieved 10.48p before experiencing a pretty reasonable rebound to 35p. And then, it all fell apart! In the couple of months since that high, the share dribbled downhill remorselessly to finally find some sort of excuse for a rebound at 5p. In the days since, the bounce has lacked conviction with the share price fluttering around the 13p level.

At present, the price needs exceed 18.8p to give hope for some reasonable upward travel as this now calculates with an initial ambition at 26p. If bettered on any initial surge uphill, we can provide a secondary target at a more reasonable 41p. In fact, with some positive news the price could find itself troubling the 59p level, a point where the visuals suggest some hesitation awaits. Only with closure above 59p will the chance of some real miracles appear, requiring further analysis of price movements thanks to longer term growth potentials becoming quite vivid.

 

Of course, there’s a “however” due to the fragility of moves accompanied by the important detail of the price eventually drifting below our “ultimate bottom”. About the only thing we can suggest, viewing downside potentials, is to take a loan, buy some Nike running shoes, and prepare to flee, should it ever get below 5p again!

Who knows, perhaps the reality of huge numbers of folk, financially ’embarrassed’ due to Covid-19 measures, shall prove a silver lining for Amigo.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:41:17PM	BRENT	43.34	42.5	42.395	42.02	43.25	43.52	43.88	44.24	42.9
9:45:51PM	GOLD	1808.9									Success
9:59:16PM	FTSE	6194
10:01:58PM	FRANCE	5016.8									Success
10:11:23PM	GERMANY	12612									Shambles
10:14:21PM	US500	3175.62
10:16:16PM	DOW	26117.4
10:17:43PM	NASDAQ	10685
10:19:50PM	JAPAN	22515	22327	22307.5	22157	22486	22520	22584	22669	22374

 

8/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6156 points. Change of -0.53%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,418,238,580 a change of -6.59%

7/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6189 points. Change of -1.53%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,730,023,410 a change of 2.54%

6/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6285 points. Change of 2.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,612,670,070 a change of 43.54%

3/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6157 points. Change of -1.33%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,213,499,960 a change of -37.56%

2/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6240 points. Change of 1.35%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,146,759,435 a change of -4.07%

1/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6157 points. Change of -0.19%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,364,963,061 a change of 0.93%

30/06/2020 FTSE Closed at 6169 points. Change of -1.15%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,315,656,653 a change of 10.43%

#France #SP500 Our January review of B&Q owner, Kingfisher PLC, finished with the paragraph below. Obviously this was before “it hit the fan” but proved prescient, the share price eventually closing at 132p. We now see an important bounce fuelled by similar enthusiasm to those who’d been desperate for the stores to reopen, predominantly “blokes”.

There’s a degree of personal favouritism for B&Q, thanks to our choices here in Argyll, Scotland, limited to a few builders merchants who really prefer serving folk who drive white Transits, grudgingly supplying a single sheet of plasterboard and mainly stocking wood which comes in 4.8 metre lengths. As a result, any trip to the mainland will often include some sort of excuse for a B&Q visit to pick up bits and pieces. So yes, B&Q opening again was a pretty big deal and now seems to be reflected in their surprising share price movements.

 

This is actually quite a big deal as very few share prices have yet bettered the level attained before the Covid drop but Kingfisher has achieved this miracle. If we regard the Covid-19 reversal as commencing at 221p on February 20th, the price is now at 225p and marginally in ‘safe’ territory for future recovery.

Price movements next exceeding 230p should prove capable of a lunge toward an initial 241p with secondary, if exceeded, calculating at a more enthusiastic 277p. Perhaps more importantly, with price closure above 241p, we shall regard the longer term influence as coming from 355p. Visually, this makes quite a lot of sense as there’s some sort of Glass Ceiling awaiting at such a level, a flat trend which has formed since 2015…

 

However, we’re in uncertain times and we’d be foolish if we refused to look for danger levels. Against Kingfisher, the Red uptrend since 2009 certainly supplies pause for thought, suggesting weakness below 193p could be problematic as it allows reversal to an initial 160p. If broken, our secondary calculation provides for a bottom at 102p, a price level we’d normally regard as absurd were it not for the intraday opening second plunge on March 20th.

This time around, our final paragraph on Kingfisher looks pretty unlikely as it feels the market wants this share price to recover.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:55:50PM	BRENT	42.92									Sorry
9:57:36PM	GOLD	1795.13									‘cess
10:07:21PM	FTSE	6163.19									Success
10:14:43PM	FRANCE	5006.1	5003	4994	4973	5037	5057	5079.5	5105	5015	Success
10:16:51PM	GERMANY	12529									‘cess
10:18:24PM	US500	3146.6	3142	3126.5	3104	3177	3184	3190	3206	3158	Success
10:20:48PM	DOW	25914									‘cess
10:22:40PM	NASDAQ	10540									Success
10:24:26PM	JAPAN	22442

 

 

7/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6189 points. Change of -1.53%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,730,023,410 a change of 2.54%

6/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6285 points. Change of 2.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,612,670,070 a change of 43.54%

3/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6157 points. Change of -1.33%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,213,499,960 a change of -37.56%

2/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6240 points. Change of 1.35%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,146,759,435 a change of -4.07%

1/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6157 points. Change of -0.19%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,364,963,061 a change of 0.93%

30/06/2020 FTSE Closed at 6169 points. Change of -1.15%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,315,656,653 a change of 10.43%

29/06/2020 FTSE Closed at 6241 points. Change of 1.33%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,813,785,764 a change of 2.33%

#Gold #DOW Despite lockdown easing, Lloyds Bank share price continues to ‘Antisocially Distance’ itself from investors and traders, carefully walking a path of movement which accomplishes nothing. Circled on the chart is absolutely nothing, an area which shall hopefully provide a reason to discuss price moves.

 

We’ve little doubt the market is watching the Blue line on the chart, presently suggesting the price needs exceed roughly 34.582p to suggest “BREAKOUT”, screaming of good times ahead. Or at least, some price recovery. The potential of this line proving to be a trigger level declines at a rate of 0.17p per day and this hints it may be another 19 days before Blue becomes an issue in the highly unlikely event the share price remains at its present 31.205p.

 

Working on the basis most sane folk skipped the preceding paragraph, what do we think is coming?

 

It will not surprise us in the slightest, if the market finds a reason to “gap” the share price above this downtrend anytime soon, ideally into the circled area of the chart. This will carry a subliminal implication we’re watching the start of some price recovery, presumably unless the famed Covid-19 2nd Wave appears. As a result, moves above Blue shall be regarded as triggering recovery to an initial 42p with secondary, if bettered, still at 48p. There’s even the hope drooling optimism could propel the share price even higher, potentially to 58p where some hesitation becomes almost certain.

Lloyds share price requires break Red on the chart, currently at 27.5p, to suggest reason for real concern as a drift down to 24 with secondary 18p remains possible.

 

Next week, it’s the turn of Barclays for analysis but we may opt for RBS instead, just to try something different in the retail bank sector.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:02:39PM	BRENT	43.12									‘cess
10:08:38PM	GOLD	1784.76	1770	1767.5	1761	1777	1787	1792	1803	1779	‘cess
10:10:42PM	FTSE	6285.79									Success
10:12:45PM	FRANCE	5084.5
10:15:00PM	GERMANY	12749.44									Success
10:17:00PM	US500	3178.87									Success
10:19:41PM	DOW	26288	26044	25962.5	25841	24243	26323	26418.75	26541	26140	Success
10:22:35PM	NASDAQ	10609
10:24:38PM	JAPAN	22652									Success

6/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6285 points. Change of 2.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,612,670,070 a change of 43.54%

3/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6157 points. Change of -1.33%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,213,499,960 a change of -37.56%

2/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6240 points. Change of 1.35%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,146,759,435 a change of -4.07%

1/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6157 points. Change of -0.19%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,364,963,061 a change of 0.93%

30/06/2020 FTSE Closed at 6169 points. Change of -1.15%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,315,656,653 a change of 10.43%

29/06/2020 FTSE Closed at 6241 points. Change of 1.33%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,813,785,764 a change of 2.33%

26/06/2020 FTSE Closed at 6159 points. Change of 0.2%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,704,232,985 a change of 0.38%

#Brent #Dax The Nasdaq, now sailing higher than ever before, may perhaps be giving a suggestion of what’s ahead for the S&P and Wall St. We struggle to find any logic behind the Nasdaq behaving as if Covid-19 has never happened but suspect arithmetic may have something to do with it. One of these silly stock market sayings, ‘the price needs to go down before it goes up!’ often has a basis in fact.

In the case of virtually everything, either in the UK or the USA, the associated arithmetic threatens some extraordinary price movements once shares, index’ and commodities start exceeding recovery trigger levels. In the case of the S&P, we’re inclined to regard the Nasdaq as creating a recovery benchmark and this calculates at 3,229 points for the SP500 index. The Big Picture calculates with movement next above 3,229 providing an ambition of 3,400 points initially with secondary, if exceeded, giving 3,566 as a pretty major point of interest.

Visually, achieving our initial 3,400 will doubtless provide some hesitation, thanks to it matching the pre-Covid-19 high of February this year.

With all this potential excitement, it’s probably worth looking for any near term scenario which should prove capable of hitting a trigger level. Allegedly, moves next above 3,200 (The immediate Blue downtrend) should bring travel to 3,266 initially with secondary, if bettered, at 3,304 points. Given both targets threaten the trigger level of 3,229 being exceeded, this should give early warning of some Big Picture arithmetic kicking in.

 

For things to start going seriously wrong, we do have a couple of items worth considering. Firstly, below 3,000 points risks breaking the immediate uptrend, allowing reversal to an initial 2,773 with secondary, when broken, down at 2,407 points.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:03:08PM	BRENT	42.83	42.32	42.1	41.83	42.67	43.3	45.34	54.12	42
6:48:25PM	GOLD	1776.08
6:53:59PM	FTSE	6177.52									‘cess
6:58:24PM	FRANCE	5022.7
7:02:18PM	GERMANY	12585	12470	12447.5	12375	12559	12600	12641.5	12698	12534	Sorry
7:03:50PM	US500	3125.62
7:06:16PM	DOW	25755									Success
7:07:53PM	NASDAQ	10340.87
8:04:28PM	JAPAN	22203									‘cess

 

3/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6157 points. Change of -1.33%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,213,499,960 a change of -37.56%

2/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6240 points. Change of 1.35%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,146,759,435 a change of -4.07%

1/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6157 points. Change of -0.19%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,364,963,061 a change of 0.93%

30/06/2020 FTSE Closed at 6169 points. Change of -1.15%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,315,656,653 a change of 10.43%

29/06/2020 FTSE Closed at 6241 points. Change of 1.33%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,813,785,764 a change of 2.33%

26/06/2020 FTSE Closed at 6159 points. Change of 0.2%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,704,232,985 a change of 0.38%

25/06/2020 FTSE Closed at 6147 points. Change of 0.39%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,686,605,937 a change of -15.87%