Trends And Targets

#FTSE #Nasdaq Once again #Boohoo are one of these shares where we managed make it seem we could see the future! Our outlook last November (link) gave criteria for a solid bounce from 150p. At the time, it was trading around 260p and our worst fear, a GaGa movement actually did appear. From March 9th, the shares doom was set and in a plunge of insanity, it hit 133p on March 18th, closing the day “safely” above 150p.

 

Obviously, we lack a crystal ball which foretold of Covid-19 and unlike a certain Govt advisor, we don’t revisit anything previously written and change it, just to suit reality. In this instance, it’s worth taking a look at what we wrote earlier as from our perspective, the drop was simply a matter of necessary arithmetic, once the criteria had been met. The deadly GaGa movement (Gap Up, Gap Down) in the share price tended make it inevitable and now, we’re seriously impressed with the strength of rebound being experienced.

 

As an online retailer, Boohoo appear well placed to enjoy some strong future results as we move into a world which shall doubtless start to find itself repulsed at the thought of browsing through clothing racks. One simply does not know if a politician, a govt advisor, or a Coronavirus carrier handled the product previously! The situation Boohoo now finds itself in suggests share strength above 399p should bring travel up to an initial 430p with secondary, if bettered, at a longer term 520p.

In the event the share price manages exceed 520p, we’ve a problem as we currently cannot calculate any higher. Should such a price level appear, doubtless someone shall email to ask us to again “run the numbers” against the  share.

Finally, we’ve a fascinating little morsel to mention regarding this. For some reason our software suggests once above 406p, future rises shall prove difficult to restrain. Also, in terms of problems, the price needs retreat below Red on the chart, presently 205p, to justify concern, if not flat panic!

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:12:06PM	BRENT	39.67									‘cess
10:14:11PM	GOLD	1728.45									‘cess
10:30:29PM	FTSE	6239	6168	6138.5	6104	6208	6242	6266.5	6344	6196	‘cess
10:32:40PM	FRANCE	4879.8									Success
10:34:20PM	GERMANY	12088									‘cess
10:36:49PM	US500	3081.87									Success
10:38:41PM	DOW	25730									Success
10:40:28PM	NASDAQ	9662.42	9508	9464	9394	9615	9667	9679	9736	9590	‘cess
10:44:33PM	JAPAN	22619									Success

 

 

2/06/2020 FTSE Closed at 6220 points. Change of 0.88%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,492,491,444 a change of 37.82%

1/06/2020 FTSE Closed at 6166 points. Change of 1.48%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,710,780,672 a change of -60.33%

29/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 6076 points. Change of -2.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 11,874,374,361 a change of 71.67%

28/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 6218 points. Change of 1.2%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,916,892,220 a change of -17.92%

27/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 6144 points. Change of 1.27%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,427,394,585 a change of 29.04%

26/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 6067 points. Change of 1.23%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,530,822,409 a change of 28.08%

22/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5993 points. Change of -100%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,099,177,715 a change of 0%

 

 

#Gold #SP500 As we get dangerously close to the point when some idiot starts pointing out how many shopping days remain until Xmas, we also have hit a point where the markets start to show some proper recovery potentials. #Domino’s Pizza, for instance, appear on the edge of quite interesting share price movements.

 

It’s an issue which completely bamboozled us, how the takeaway food industry could keep operating without a testing regime in place for staff. Common sense alone suggested if the person putting the product in a bag was infected, the illness risked being past to every single person placing an order. Despite this gaping flaw, fast food deliveries remained available, making us wonder if any members of Govt family also sit on the board of a major delivery company?

Now the madness of Covid-19 appears to be diminished, Domino’s share price looks ready for a further surge.

Above 365p looks capable of an attempt at 377p next with secondary, if exceeded, a crucial longer term 433p. As this represents the potential for a new all time high, it’s also worth mentioning the highest we can calculate works out at a distant sounding 495p.

 

If the price intends become troublesome, it needs trade below 317p as this suggests it entering a reversal cycle to 270p with secondary, if broken, at a bottom hopefully at 197p. Visually, nothing suggests this is a threat.

 

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:05:20PM	BRENT	38.63
10:12:35PM	GOLD	1740.07	1727	1721.5	1714	1736	1742	1746	1749	1734	‘cess
10:15:21PM	FTSE	6196									Success
10:17:13PM	FRANCE	4798
10:27:19PM	GERMANY	11930									Success
10:29:05PM	US500	3056.47	3023	3012.5	2996	3046	3061	3067	3081	3051
10:31:42PM	DOW	25487									Shambles
10:34:03PM	NASDAQ	9598.87									Shambles
10:35:53PM	JAPAN	22199									Success

1/06/2020 FTSE Closed at 6166 points. Change of 1.48%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,710,780,672 a change of -60.33%

29/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 6076 points. Change of -2.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 11,874,374,361 a change of 71.67%

28/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 6218 points. Change of 1.2%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,916,892,220 a change of -17.92%

27/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 6144 points. Change of 1.27%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,427,394,585 a change of 29.04%

26/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 6067 points. Change of 1.23%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,530,822,409 a change of 28.08%

22/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5993 points. Change of -0.37%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,099,177,715 a change of -23.47%

21/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 6015 points. Change of -100%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,663,000,786 a change of 0%

 

 

#Brent #Dax We’ve had emails regarding this lot. With lockdown easing by varying amounts in different parts of the UK, it’s easy to wonder if the “buzz” over Covid-19 shares like #Omega shall  diminish. Social media is awash with warnings about a 2nd wave but it’s certain a virus will not pay any attention to gossip.

 

Against Omega Diagnostics, from reading the company CV, they appear most emphatically not a flash in the pan organisation and instead, read like a company with many strings to their bow. However, there’s little doubt the most recent surge in share price has been entirely Coronavirus related with the risk should interest in the disease diminish, so shall this share price.

The good news, for what it’s worth, is we can now calculate a maximum price potential at 93p and cannot compute anything higher. This does not mean the price cannot go higher, just that we’ve run out of logic. If the market intends drive the price higher, it shall be worth keeping an eye on the price at the open in the days ahead. Should the stock market start “gapping” Omega up at the open, this will generally prove a pretty solid signal the market intends value it higher than 93p eventually.

 

However, we’re more concerned with price movements since it reached a recent high of 91p.  The levels of reversal experienced since this high bother us and now weakness below 59p risks driving reversal to 49p and hopefully a rebound. Any rebound which proves capable of returning the price above Red on the chart shall probably prove “real” rather than a short term hope.

In the event the 49p level breaks on an initial surge downward, our secondary calculation comes in at 28p. If achieved, we would hope for a real bounce at the 28p level. Unusually we can work out an ultimate bottom of 6.5p for this, a scenario which would suggest the entire Covid-19 business has simply been a “pump and dump” excuse for price movements. We’d hope this can be discounted as nonsense, if only due to the UK’s world beating record of fatalities.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:17:40PM	BRENT	37.7	34.8	34.24	32.92	36.4	38.2	38.905	40.59	36.95	Success
9:20:34PM	GOLD	1730									Success
11:30:41AM	FTSE	6120.94									‘cess
11:36:56AM	FRANCE	4723
11:51:00AM	GERMANY	11735	11637	11614.5	11574	11688	11749	11829	11933	11636	Success
11:53:07AM	US500	3060.52		2970	2940	3031	3061	3070.25	3081	3032	‘cess
11:55:03AM	DOW	25517	25321	25252	25160	25426	25528	25643	25850	25320	Success
11:57:08AM	NASDAQ	9592.37	9494	9482	9445	9550	9593	9614	9640	9496	Success
11:59:19AM	JAPAN	22026	21870	21810.5	21737	91956	22030	22104.5	22256	21870	‘cess

29/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 6076 points. Change of -2.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 11,874,374,361 a change of 71.67%

28/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 6218 points. Change of 1.2%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,916,892,220 a change of -17.92%

27/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 6144 points. Change of 1.27%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,427,394,585 a change of 29.04%

26/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 6067 points. Change of 1.23%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,530,822,409 a change of 28.08%

22/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5993 points. Change of -0.37%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,099,177,715 a change of -23.47%

21/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 6015 points. Change of -0.86%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,663,000,786 a change of 12.03%

20/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 6067 points. Change of 1.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,947,398,391 a change of 10.61%

 

#FTSE #DAX We have grown to dread the end of a month, thanks to markets tending to take a “stupid pill”. We’re probably not alone in waiting for the other shoe to drop as, aside from pubs and restaurants not yet being open, the concept of “social distancing” seems a distant memory, thanks to ill-advised behaviour from an advisor who wasn’t ill.

 

If we chose to follow logic and take an optimistic viewpoint, the FTSE is supposed to experience some gains, both from a near term viewpoint and also, from a bigger picture viewpoint. As a result, if we follow the Big Picture, apparently the UK main market is on track for recovery to 6750 as a fairly major point of interest. If bettered, 7350 strikes us as a fairly major secondary target, on where some volatility appears possible.

While this all sounds fabulous, it’s worth remembering the FTSE started this year at 7,600 points. Even the day when Covid-19 started to hit home on Feb 24th saw the index open at 7,400 points. As a result, even if our ambitious secondary calculation proves correct at 7,350, the UK index will still not be “out of the woods” and heading toward the land of Higher Highs. This creates a situation where, if something goes wrong, the market could experience very sharp and fast reversals.

 

From a near term perspective, apparently movement next above 6234 points should make a lunge toward an initial useless 6250 points. If exceeded, secondary calculates at a pretty solid looking 6353 points. Unusually, we can warn to expect some hesitation around the 6280 level, if the climb triggers near term!

 

Near term reversals risk proving serious, if the market finds sufficient excuse to drift below 5900 points. Movement such as this risks severe consequences and allows a drop down to an initial 5550 points with secondary, when broken, at 5260 points. This scenario appears visually unlikely but then again, so was a trip to Barnard Castle, the UK’s version of Lourdes for the visually impaired.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:20:32PM	BRENT	36.2	34.34	33.67		35.7	36.7	36.98		35.6	‘cess
10:24:50PM	GOLD	1718.63	1711	1708		1719	1721	1726.75		1715	‘cess
10:32:06PM	FTSE	6201.56	6152	6103		6222	6285	6328		6170	Success
10:42:26PM	FRANCE	4731.7	4698	4667		4760	4788	4843		4675	‘cess
10:58:11PM	GERMANY	11716	11658	11613		11797	11832	11866.5		11733	‘cess
11:00:05PM	US500	3039.93	3022	3011.5		3043	3060	3068.5		3027	‘cess
11:02:44PM	DOW	25477	25420	25359.5		25538	25630	25741		25420	Success
11:05:15PM	NASDAQ	9452	9323	9298.5		9471	9475	9513		9424	Success
11:07:28PM	JAPAN	21890	21803	21732.5		22005	22103	22134		21884

 

 

28/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 6218 points. Change of 1.2%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,916,892,220 a change of -17.92%

27/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 6144 points. Change of 1.27%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,427,394,585 a change of 29.04%

26/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 6067 points. Change of 1.23%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,530,822,409 a change of 28.08%

22/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5993 points. Change of -0.37%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,099,177,715 a change of -23.47%

21/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 6015 points. Change of -0.86%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,663,000,786 a change of 12.03%

20/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 6067 points. Change of 1.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,947,398,391 a change of 10.61%

19/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 6002 points. Change of -100%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,376,891,155 a change of 0%

 

#DOW #Nasdaq Their share code gives a clue who #Liberty are, owners of Formula 1, currently entrusted with trashing what was once a popular event on TV. Believing people will pay to watch advertising moving at 200mph, they ensured TV viewer figures returned to levels not seen since the 1960’s.

Regular readers know we’ve a thing about Formula 1 (or indeed, most sports played without a ball) and are no longer shocked at the short sighted greed exhibited by organisers, an attitude which cost circuits their events, then lost countries their events, and now we’re witnessing a campaign which has minimised global television audiences. When Liberty bought the commercial rights, hopes for the sport remaining available to a mass viewer base were eventually dashed. Drivers are finally starting to complain, doubtless painfully aware they face the day when a driver shall win a World Championship and be less well known than a darts player in their own country.

However… Formula 1 looks like restarting behind closed doors with the share price becoming interesting.

 

Despite our pretty downcast attitude to Formula 1, Liberty appear to have a share price enjoying some considerable hope for the future. The immediate price cycle looks capable of trades above 35.3 dollars bringing an initial 37 with secondary, if exceeded, a more useful 43.75 dollars. The secondary target level is visually believable, returning the price to the pre-Covid-19 level. We’d be inclined to watch carefully around such a level for signs of the price being manipulated (gapped) upward at the open as this shall tend suggest the market intends explore new highs. If this is indeed the case, we can project a maximum currently at 56 dollars eventually.

 

If it all goes wrong, the price needs break below Red at 27 presently. This risks extreme danger, taking the share price into a zone where reversal to 13 dollars is possible with secondary, if broken, at an ultimate bottom of 7 dollars.

 

For now, there’s quite a strong impression of confidence.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:35:20PM	BRENT	34.98									‘cess
9:37:23PM	GOLD	1713.38
9:39:19PM	FTSE	6176.47									Success
9:49:29PM	FRANCE	4704.7									Success
9:51:05PM	GERMANY	11743.82									Success
9:52:41PM	US500	3041.22									‘cess
9:55:44PM	DOW	25591.7	25064	24965	24746	25238	25625	25685	25911	25345	Success
10:03:01PM	NASDAQ	9445.6	9352	9318	9273	9416	9453	9480	9508	9380	Success
10:04:44PM	JAPAN	21650									Success

27/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 6144 points. Change of 1.27%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,427,394,585 a change of 29.04%

26/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 6067 points. Change of 1.23%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,530,822,409 a change of 28.08%

22/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5993 points. Change of -0.37%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,099,177,715 a change of -23.47%

21/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 6015 points. Change of -0.86%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,663,000,786 a change of 12.03%

20/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 6067 points. Change of 1.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,947,398,391 a change of 10.61%

19/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 6002 points. Change of -0.76%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,376,891,155 a change of -9.59%

18/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 6048 points. Change of -100%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,947,351,021 a change of 0%

 

 

#Gold #SP500 Our monthly visit to the banking sector often feels somewhat otiose. With the sector still resolutely feeling the effects of Covid-19, #RBS has failed do anything useful in the recent months, other than inflict a tedious comedienne on TV viewers. Except there is one important detail worth considering…

RBS’ share price is giving a completely solid impression the lowest it’s going to go is 100p and doubtless presenting an attractive proposition for traders. Since Coronavirus hit, RBS has carefully caressed 100p, crucially not breaking below this level. Visually, it’s almost like the stock market is presenting a sure thing! It’s perhaps worth remembering, similar to “politician & integrity”, the words “sure thing” & “stock market” do not belong in the same sentence.

 

To focus on the dangerous side of life, it now looks possible if RBS’ share price shuffles below 100p, reversal to an initial 89p looks possible. Should the 89p level break on the day of an initial surge downward, ultimate bottom calculates at 50p. This is the level we cannot calculate below, thus we’d ideally hope for a rebound before such a target level is reached. Our reasoning for this is fairly brutal, insofar should this theoretical 50p break, meaningful recovery becomes very difficult.

Of course, we’ve a “however” thanks to the current period of lethargic behaviour.

 

Should the stock market decide to employ its sense of humour, we shall not be aghast to see RBS share price spiked downward below the 100p level in the opening second of trade, if the market discovers sufficient excuse. Ideally, were the price to hit (or come close to) the 89p level at the open, we’d take this as warning the share is intended to enact some real recovery, even though it breaks below the 100p ‘floor’ level. Our theory why this sort of nonsense may be possible is based on the premise the stock market is not a charity and instead, is in business to make money.

So imagine a share where loads of “smart” traders have been viewing price movements, convincing themselves 100p shall not break. But to be safe, they’ve perhaps established a “Stop Loss” just below the 100p level. If the market felt an upward surge was possible, dropping the price to collect all the “Stop Losses” makes some sense as it also releases a tranche of shares into the hands of stock brokers.

 

Of course, we can present a scenario which doesn’t need delve into the realms of what sounds like a conspiracy theory. Near term, movements above just 113p are supposed to be capable of an initial 119p. If exceeded, our secondary longer term target calculates at 133p, along with a requirement we again stir the tea leaves. Visually, 123p is believable and matches the Glass Ceiling formed in recent months. Only with closure above 123p dare we express real hope we’ve seen the worst RBS can inflict on traders.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:18:30PM	BRENT	36.63
10:22:46PM	GOLD	1710.86	1708	1691	1689	1717	1730	1739.5	1750	1720	Success
10:25:40PM	FTSE	6051.97
10:35:19PM	FRANCE	4587.2									‘cess
10:36:51PM	GERMANY	11476									‘cess
10:38:21PM	US500	2997.52	2987	2980	2965	3015	3025	3033	3046	3000	‘cess
10:40:24PM	DOW	25055									Success
10:42:29PM	NASDAQ	9416.62									Shambles
10:45:32PM	JAPAN	21268									Success

 

26/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 6067 points. Change of 1.23%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,530,822,409 a change of 28.08%

22/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5993 points. Change of -0.37%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,099,177,715 a change of -23.47%

21/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 6015 points. Change of -0.86%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,663,000,786 a change of 12.03%

20/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 6067 points. Change of 1.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,947,398,391 a change of 10.61%

19/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 6002 points. Change of -0.76%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,376,891,155 a change of -9.59%

18/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 6048 points. Change of 4.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,947,351,021 a change of 14.48%

15/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5799 points. Change of -100%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,195,107,449 a change of 0%

 

 

 

#Brent #Dax #Barclays share price has certainly taken a trip to Durham and similar to the UK’s current PM, the journey has not (yet) utterly destroyed its potentials. Instead, the share price is showing some very slight signs for some sort of recovery, probably worth keeping an eye on soon.

From a Big Picture perspective, the problem the share price faces dates back to 2013 and the Blue line on the chart. At present, this trend is around 180p and only if the price exceeds Blue will it remove itself completely from its current position, teetering on the edge of doom. The price needs below 75p to generate serious alarm, now giving considerable hope for a rebound from 46p. If broken, ultimate bottom is at 26p, this unlikely level being the point we cannot calculate below.

 

Now we’ve examined the dangers, the price only requires exceed 111p to signal hope for recovery as this should trigger recovery to an initial 117p. If exceeded, our secondary calculation works out at 125p. With closure above 125p, we can easily plan for future recovery to 147p.

 

In common with many shares, despite the potential of some price recovery, there’s a big issue with the long term downtrend and this gives a price level which risks proving quite distant. The greater implication from this is a risk of extremely sharp falls, should the stock markets find sufficient excuse for further reductions, painfully below the initial Covid-19 drop. Basically, the markets appear to be solidly in a “fingers crossed” position.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop
9:45:22PM	BRENT	36.11	34.92	34.61	34	35.9	36.44	36.78	37.75	34.95
9:47:23PM	GOLD	1730.19								1723
9:49:02PM	FTSE	6023.38								5961
9:50:39PM	FRANCE	4540.5								4491
9:52:13PM	GERMANY	11397	11111	11018	10890	11251	11402	11425.5	11614	11246
9:54:18PM	US500	2993.92								2949
9:56:21PM	DOW	24760								24550
9:58:06PM	NASDAQ	9535.97								9448
10:00:20PM	JAPAN	20968								20740

22/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5993 points. Change of -0.37%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,099,177,715 a change of -23.47%

21/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 6015 points. Change of -0.86%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,663,000,786 a change of 12.03%

20/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 6067 points. Change of 1.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,947,398,391 a change of 10.61%

19/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 6002 points. Change of -0.76%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,376,891,155 a change of -9.59%

18/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 6048 points. Change of 4.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,947,351,021 a change of 14.48%

15/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5799 points. Change of 1.01%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,195,107,449 a change of -15.28%

14/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5741 points. Change of -2.76%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,132,234,871 a change of 5.73%