Trends And Targets

#FTSE #France A glaring hole in the logic with crypto currency comes from massive swings in value.  Imagine selling your central London garden shed for 500 #Bitcoin, valuing it at around 5 million dollars. And within a few weeks, the rate changes and you’ve just let your shed go for 2.5 million instead. As a result, instead of being a property speculator, you’ve just become a crypto speculator, one which is walking funny.

This level of risk is obviously present with any international transaction. A chum, who imported staircases to the UK from Italy, would regularly check Euro movements with us before paying his supplier, sometimes finding he’d be wisest paying invoices early and at other times, delaying a few days could make a substantial difference to the bank transfer. But as crypto currency is an ideal way to hide ill gotten gains, selling & buying physical items certainly implies a risk quite far beyond the taxman’s remit.

 

Ethereum price movements certainly look worth some consideration, if considering using a stash of them to purchase something. At present, movements above 450 dollars look very capable of accelerating the value to 495 next where visually, some hesitation looks possible. If exceeded, things become rather more interesting as our secondary price level calculates up at 642 dollars. In fact, with closure one day above 495 dollars, the longer term attraction works out at 824 dollars.

 

If it all intends go wrong, Ethereum, trading at 411 dollars at time of writing, needs slip below 300 dollars to ring the first warning bell for reversals coming. We suspect, if you’re about to purchase a discrete Van Gogh with Ethereum, it may prove worthwhile waiting a few weeks.

 

*** We commented on the 19th August Supply@Me Capital were listed on the AIM. They are actually listed on the main LSE market. Sorry.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:15:10PM	BRENT	45.6
10:17:54PM	GOLD	1929.62									Success
10:22:12PM	FTSE	6075	6044	6012	5962	6096	6111	6123	6150	6081
10:28:18PM	FRANCE	4955	4915	4906	4881	4960	4972	4982	5004	4949
10:30:18PM	GERMANY	12941									Success
10:32:09PM	US500	3372.97									‘cess
10:34:20PM	DOW	27690
10:36:05PM	NASDAQ	11329
10:37:50PM	JAPAN	23089

 

19/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6111 points. Change of 0.58%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,577,441,706 a change of -6.9%

18/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6076 points. Change of -0.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,842,583,289 a change of -9.83%

17/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6127 points. Change of 0.61%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,261,456,332 a change of 16.19%

14/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6090 points. Change of -1.54%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,667,761,391 a change of -1.93%

13/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6185 points. Change of -1.51%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,740,034,569 a change of -28.55%

12/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6280 points. Change of 2.05%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,234,357,396 a change of 7.98%

11/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6154 points. Change of 1.72%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,847,593,064 a change of 33.01%

#Gold #DOW People of a certain age find “hip” naming conventions often quite silly. There was a phase when intruding an “i” at the start of a product name somehow convincing marketing folk this made a product more interesting. Equally, there’s the curse of the ‘#’ hash tag, now often used to disparage, and of course, the much loved ‘@’ symbol. All this nonsense tends imply people employed in the creative side can only think within 4 keys of the r/h/s of a keyboard!

The company, Supply@me appear to be a new listing, appearing on the market in March 2020 at probably the worst time for a Listing on the AIM. Instead of a reasonable gain, prior to the price being trashed, the share failed do anything interesting, then plunged in value. In the last couple of days, we’ve received rather a few emails asking our thoughts against this new listing. Generally we prefer rather more than 4 months of data before expressing any confidence in our findings.

Immediately, the suggestion given is of price growth above 0.9p allowing travel to an initial 1.34p. Should the price manage to close above this level, our secondary calculates at 2.14p. Both target levels represent new all time highs for the company and despite us being unable to calculate above 2.14p, if the company is the subject of enthusiastic comment among internet chatrooms, the share price could obviously continue higher.

If it all intends go wrong, the price presently needs break below Red on the chart, presently 0.5p.

 

We’d suggest taking a glance at the fundamentals may prove worthwhile. A simple glance at their website threw up one tiny little question:

“Why didn’t they employ a website design company who were capable of ensuring the default “WordPress” logo didn’t appear on internet browser tabs?” WordPress web templates are great, often free, and very popular. We use one ourselves but don’t expect a Listed company to opt for such a basic option and ignore their own corporate logo.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:46:38PM	BRENT	45.51
10:48:47PM	GOLD	2002.52	1976	1962	1944	1996	2019	22039	2071	1997	‘cess
10:51:13PM	FTSE	6080									Shambles
10:55:40PM	FRANCE	4928.7
10:58:14PM	GERMANY	12878									Success
11:02:21PM	US500	3392
11:04:47PM	DOW	27791	27663	27574	27429	27845	28005	28168.5	28352	27814
11:06:38PM	NASDAQ	11410
11:08:50PM	JAPAN	23046

 

 

 

18/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6076 points. Change of -0.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,842,583,289 a change of -9.83%

17/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6127 points. Change of 0.61%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,261,456,332 a change of 16.19%

14/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6090 points. Change of -1.54%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,667,761,391 a change of -1.93%

13/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6185 points. Change of -1.51%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,740,034,569 a change of -28.55%

12/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6280 points. Change of 2.05%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,234,357,396 a change of 7.98%

11/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6154 points. Change of 1.72%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,847,593,064 a change of 33.01%

10/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6050 points. Change of 0.3%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,644,538,945 a change of -12.52%

#Brent #CAC40 It would be enjoyable to suggest a Retail Bank share price movement provoked a cardiac problem, confining our usual “headline section” writer to hospital. However, there has been no such movement amongst the usual culprits as they continue to play in the gutter of share prices, often trading below logical bottom levels.

For Barclays, there is an immediate issue looking dangerous as it produces an interesting “what if” scenario.

What if Barclays drops below 107p? Will the price plummet down to a pretty tame sounding 105p?

This scenario is quite a big deal, visually pretty certain to bring further reversals to 101p and the edge of a problem. If the price fails to rebound from Red on the chart (we do not think it shall rebound), the visuals indicate the risk of continued reversals down to 86p and hopefully (no guarantee) a real rebound.

Barclays now needs above 114p before we dare become slightly breathless with anticipation. Our ‘wounded soldier’ is recovering and will be back writing later this week hopefully.

 

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
12:36:57AM	BRENT	45.66	44.74	44.415	43.97	45.49	45.75	45.945	46.35	45.24
12:40:09AM	GOLD	1983.26
12:42:03AM	FTSE	6139.7
12:43:36AM	FRANCE	4974	4936	4911.5	4849	4981	5002	5013.5	5039	4958
12:45:30AM	GERMANY	12964
12:57:49AM	US500	3389.72
1:02:41AM	DOW	27896

17/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6127 points. Change of 0.61%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,261,456,332 a change of 16.19%

14/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6090 points. Change of -1.54%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,667,761,391 a change of -1.93%

13/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6185 points. Change of -1.51%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,740,034,569 a change of -28.55%

12/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6280 points. Change of 2.05%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,234,357,396 a change of 7.98%

11/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6154 points. Change of 1.72%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,847,593,064 a change of 33.01%

10/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6050 points. Change of 0.3%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,644,538,945 a change of -12.52%

7/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6032 points. Change of 0.1%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,166,017,548 a change of -2.34%

Sorry, no update.

The person supposed to be doing it is skiving. Claiming cardiac problems and lazing around in hospital does not cut it!

 

#FTSE #Gold #FreeFriday Varied excuses are possible for sleeping in for the European markets opening. Staying up to watch Japan & Australia is a pretty good one, binge watching a TV show called “For All Mankind” didn’t cut it. The premise of the show was fascinating, essentially a ‘what if Russia made it to the Moon before the USA?’ twist of history. Ok, the Australian market was on one computer screen but ignored, due to the quality of this offering from AppleTV.

 

This doesn’t mean Australia isn’t worth watching. The ASX200 index has recovered from its Covid-19 low fairly forcefully and presently looks very capable of movement next above 6,190 bringing some strength to an initial 6,548 points, obviously not in a single session… We’ve a pretty strong reason to suspect some hesitation should 6,548 be achieved, thanks to the longer term secondary looking remarkably insane as it calculates at 7,881 points and a shiny new all time high. There’s a possibility of stutters at 7,046 points.

Currently, Australia needs trade below 5,417 points to justify panic as things risk going wrong rather fast, should such a trigger be trashed.

FTSE FRIDAY This week has been a tad confusing. Quite how the FTSE could justify being UP by more than 2% against a backdrop of the news, boasting we were in the Greatest Recession since an asteroid spoiled the party for dinosaurs. Or perhaps they all caught a virus which was going around!

We’re not entirely convinced at the strength of reversal for the FTSE on Thursday. The index had grown by around 150 points on Wednesday yet only sunk by 100 points on Thursday. This certainly did not imply an immediate loss of confidence for the future.  In the event the FTSE manages below 6,180 on Friday, reversal down to 6,128 looks possible and visually we’d hope for a rebound at such a level. If broken, things get nasty as our secondary calculation works out at 6,060 points.

 

As mentioned above, we’re underwhelmed by the strength of retreat of Thursday, tending to suspect another attempt at recovery is possible. An early ray of sunshine shall be movement on the FTSE above 6,215 points as this calculates with the potential of an initial 6,249 points with secondary, if exceeded, calculating at 6,266. This certainly takes us into the realm of brewing trouble for next week as the UK market shall fail to exceed the high of Wednesday, ideally setting the index up for some reversals fairly soon.

Only if 6,266 is exceeded date we express optimism as we’re above to project longer term growth 100 points higher.

Have a good weekend and enjoy the next Grand Prix.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:58:25PM	BRENT	45.31	45	44.475		45.4	45.8	45.94		45.27	Shambles
10:02:03PM	GOLD	1954.35	1914	1896			1968	1994.5		1928	‘cess
10:04:07PM	FTSE	6186.03	6159	6143		6207	6231	6249		6185	Success
10:15:37PM	FRANCE	5034.2	5020	5002		5058	5081	5098		5040
10:18:14PM	GERMANY	12972	12918	12881		13022	13023	13055.5		12958
10:40:14PM	US500	3373.17	3362	3357.5		3382	3381	3388		3367
10:42:20PM	DOW	27902.2	27788	27741		27890	27980	28163		27870
10:44:51PM	NASDAQ	11186	11102	11062		11199	11277	11336		11134	‘cess
10:46:47PM	JAPAN	23219	23138	23078		23250	23312	23347.5		21218

13/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6185 points. Change of -1.51%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,740,034,569 a change of -28.55%

12/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6280 points. Change of 2.05%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,234,357,396 a change of 7.98%

11/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6154 points. Change of 1.72%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,847,593,064 a change of 33.01%

10/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6050 points. Change of 0.3%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,644,538,945 a change of -12.52%

7/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6032 points. Change of 0.1%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,166,017,548 a change of -2.34%

6/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6026 points. Change of -1.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,266,025,733 a change of -25.48%

5/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6104 points. Change of 1.13%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,724,834,824 a change of 13.25%

#Gold #SP500 The ballad of our unwanted* cats continues, every day bringing a new wrinkle to the tale. One of the Golden Retrievers is respectful around the cats, the other harbours a dislike and distrust. The elder dog once proved she could clear a coffee table of red wine glasses with a single swipe of her tail. Seeing a cat on the coffee table, she deliberated turned, gave a happy swipe, and launched the startled cat across the room. Many traders will have shares they probably wish could be dealt with so easily.

LSE:POG certainly must feel like a fully paid up member of the “wish I could swipe it off the table” brigade. The London based Gold Mining company, once trading above £17 has seen the value brutalised, eventually reaching a bottom of 4p in 2015. This year has seen some recovery, insignificant in the great scheme of things, and we’re interested whether the recent shareholder revolt, ousting the chairman and CEO and calling for an independent investigation of transactions over the last 3 years, shall finally allow the price to commence some recovery.

Presently trading around 32p, we shall regard moves anytime soon above 36p as hopefully triggering some slight recovery to an initial 41p with secondary, if exceeded, at 45p. Obviously, for those whose funds have been on a protracted holiday, neither ambition is particularly noteworthy but should 45p make a guest appearance, this shall take the price above the prior high this year. The effect, from our perspective, shall be a hope of some recovery fuelled by historical Big Picture price levels. (See chart inset)

 

As shown, the price has spent the last few weeks adhering to the downtrend since 2011. Movement above 45p shall suggest quite strongly a genuine trend break has occurred, permitting recovery to an initial 58p with secondary, if exceeded, at 76p. Longer term (or much sooner if positive news is involved) we can postulate 116p as a major point of interest.

All the price needs do is start going up!

*The “unwanted cats” were inherited from an ill relative.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:25:05PM	BRENT	45.56
10:30:28PM	GOLD	1917	1906	1902.5	1845	1935	1949	1966	2001	1921	Success
10:33:58PM	FTSE	6246									Success
10:52:22PM	FRANCE	5076									‘cess
11:00:13PM	GERMANY	13067									‘cess
11:04:09PM	US500	3372	3350	3335.5	3318	3370	3388	3396.75	3407	3363
11:06:43PM	DOW	27948									Success
11:09:16PM	NASDAQ	11132									Success
11:17:33PM	JAPAN	23191									Success

 

12/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6280 points. Change of 2.05%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,234,357,396 a change of 7.98%

11/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6154 points. Change of 1.72%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,847,593,064 a change of 33.01%

10/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6050 points. Change of 0.3%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,644,538,945 a change of -12.52%

7/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6032 points. Change of 0.1%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,166,017,548 a change of -2.34%

6/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6026 points. Change of -1.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,266,025,733 a change of -25.48%

5/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6104 points. Change of 1.13%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,724,834,824 a change of 13.25%

4/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6036 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,055,051,224 a change of 18.31%

#FTSE #Japan It can be funny reading analysts, sometimes frantic, attempts to find a reason for a market movement. We witnessed this frenzy on Tuesday, world index growth being attributed variously, to “bond stimulus”, “interest rates”, “Gold reversing”, even the S&P nearly painting a new high. No one actually knew the root cause, perhaps it was just because it’s summer. Perhaps it was Russia coughing politely and mentioning they’re rolling out a vaccine for Covid-19!

But the opening paragraph from an article in the Telegraph rung true, perhaps indicating a greater reality.

 

Jeremy Warner, Telegraph editor, wrote;

“In money we trust, or maybe not so much these days. A rising gold price and weakening dollar can both be seen as signals that trust in sovereign currency could be going the same was as trust in Government, institutions, and mainstream political leaders.”

 

Despite the price of Gold crashing by more than 100 dollars since his article was published, the guy maybe has a point. One which will explain the constant flux in currency movements, index movements, crypto currency etc. Essentially there’s an awful lot of uncertainty at present, doubtless ‘Covid-19 provoked’ due to hesitation over economic recovery, 2nd waves, political competence, and of course what’s going to happen as schools return.

What surprises, despite all these reasons for nerves, was our article on the Euro vs The US Dollar in September last year (link). In it, we proposed criteria for the relationship to founder to 1.0635. On March 20th this year, 6 months after our original prediction, the pairing exactly hit our drop target. Importantly, the target was not broken and thus, suggesting further weakness. Instead, the relationship hit 1.0635 and bounced.

Despite deserving a “smarty pants” award for this prediction, we’re more interested in movements since our drop target was successfully achieved as it implied the presence of strength. Now, with the pairing flirting with the downtrend (Blue) since 2008, the price need only now exceed  1.190 to suggest the potential of further recovery to an initial 1.2169 with secondary, if exceeded, a visually sensible 1.2445. To be fair, we already suspect the pair shall head to 1.2445 in the fullness of time (remember, our grasp of timeframes is dodgy).

Only with closure above 1.2445 shall we believe the Euro is headed for great things as strong recovery looks inevitable.

To cancel the prospect on the immediate cycle, the relationship needs founder below 1.10 as reversal now to 1.0418 looks very possible as a future “bottom”.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:04:06PM	BRENT	44.85									‘cess
10:07:00PM	GOLD	1911.88									Success
10:20:34PM	FTSE	6144.92	6110	6042	6023	6184	6185	6217.75	6270	6124	Success
10:23:41PM	FRANCE	4977									Shambles
10:26:00PM	GERMANY	12867									Success
10:28:34PM	US500	3342.42									Success
10:31:05PM	DOW	27755									Success
10:34:05PM	NASDAQ	10942									Shambles
10:36:30PM	JAPAN	22720	22653	22545	22408	22760	22762	22844	23062	22653	Success

11/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6154 points. Change of 1.72%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,847,593,064 a change of 33.01%

10/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6050 points. Change of 0.3%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,644,538,945 a change of -12.52%

7/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6032 points. Change of 0.1%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,166,017,548 a change of -2.34%

6/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6026 points. Change of -1.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,266,025,733 a change of -25.48%

5/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6104 points. Change of 1.13%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,724,834,824 a change of 13.25%

4/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6036 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,055,051,224 a change of 18.31%

3/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6032 points. Change of 2.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,272,722,908 a change of -22.49%