Author: T&T Staff

#Brent #CAC40 It would be enjoyable to suggest a Retail Bank share price movement provoked a cardiac problem, confining our usual “headline section” writer to hospital. However, there has been no such movement amongst the usual culprits as they continue to play in the gutter of share prices, often trading below logical bottom levels.

For Barclays, there is an immediate issue looking dangerous as it produces an interesting “what if” scenario.

What if Barclays drops below 107p? Will the price plummet down to a pretty tame sounding 105p?

This scenario is quite a big deal, visually pretty certain to bring further reversals to 101p and the edge of a problem. If the price fails to rebound from Red on the chart (we do not think it shall rebound), the visuals indicate the risk of continued reversals down to 86p and hopefully (no guarantee) a real rebound.

Barclays now needs above 114p before we dare become slightly breathless with anticipation. Our ‘wounded soldier’ is recovering and will be back writing later this week hopefully.

 

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
12:36:57AM	BRENT	45.66	44.74	44.415	43.97	45.49	45.75	45.945	46.35	45.24
12:40:09AM	GOLD	1983.26
12:42:03AM	FTSE	6139.7
12:43:36AM	FRANCE	4974	4936	4911.5	4849	4981	5002	5013.5	5039	4958
12:45:30AM	GERMANY	12964
12:57:49AM	US500	3389.72
1:02:41AM	DOW	27896

17/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6127 points. Change of 0.61%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,261,456,332 a change of 16.19%

14/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6090 points. Change of -1.54%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,667,761,391 a change of -1.93%

13/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6185 points. Change of -1.51%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,740,034,569 a change of -28.55%

12/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6280 points. Change of 2.05%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,234,357,396 a change of 7.98%

11/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6154 points. Change of 1.72%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,847,593,064 a change of 33.01%

10/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6050 points. Change of 0.3%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,644,538,945 a change of -12.52%

7/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6032 points. Change of 0.1%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,166,017,548 a change of -2.34%

Sorry, no update.

The person supposed to be doing it is skiving. Claiming cardiac problems and lazing around in hospital does not cut it!

 

#FTSE #Gold #FreeFriday Varied excuses are possible for sleeping in for the European markets opening. Staying up to watch Japan & Australia is a pretty good one, binge watching a TV show called “For All Mankind” didn’t cut it. The premise of the show was fascinating, essentially a ‘what if Russia made it to the Moon before the USA?’ twist of history. Ok, the Australian market was on one computer screen but ignored, due to the quality of this offering from AppleTV.

 

This doesn’t mean Australia isn’t worth watching. The ASX200 index has recovered from its Covid-19 low fairly forcefully and presently looks very capable of movement next above 6,190 bringing some strength to an initial 6,548 points, obviously not in a single session… We’ve a pretty strong reason to suspect some hesitation should 6,548 be achieved, thanks to the longer term secondary looking remarkably insane as it calculates at 7,881 points and a shiny new all time high. There’s a possibility of stutters at 7,046 points.

Currently, Australia needs trade below 5,417 points to justify panic as things risk going wrong rather fast, should such a trigger be trashed.

FTSE FRIDAY This week has been a tad confusing. Quite how the FTSE could justify being UP by more than 2% against a backdrop of the news, boasting we were in the Greatest Recession since an asteroid spoiled the party for dinosaurs. Or perhaps they all caught a virus which was going around!

We’re not entirely convinced at the strength of reversal for the FTSE on Thursday. The index had grown by around 150 points on Wednesday yet only sunk by 100 points on Thursday. This certainly did not imply an immediate loss of confidence for the future.  In the event the FTSE manages below 6,180 on Friday, reversal down to 6,128 looks possible and visually we’d hope for a rebound at such a level. If broken, things get nasty as our secondary calculation works out at 6,060 points.

 

As mentioned above, we’re underwhelmed by the strength of retreat of Thursday, tending to suspect another attempt at recovery is possible. An early ray of sunshine shall be movement on the FTSE above 6,215 points as this calculates with the potential of an initial 6,249 points with secondary, if exceeded, calculating at 6,266. This certainly takes us into the realm of brewing trouble for next week as the UK market shall fail to exceed the high of Wednesday, ideally setting the index up for some reversals fairly soon.

Only if 6,266 is exceeded date we express optimism as we’re above to project longer term growth 100 points higher.

Have a good weekend and enjoy the next Grand Prix.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:58:25PM	BRENT	45.31	45	44.475		45.4	45.8	45.94		45.27	Shambles
10:02:03PM	GOLD	1954.35	1914	1896			1968	1994.5		1928	‘cess
10:04:07PM	FTSE	6186.03	6159	6143		6207	6231	6249		6185	Success
10:15:37PM	FRANCE	5034.2	5020	5002		5058	5081	5098		5040
10:18:14PM	GERMANY	12972	12918	12881		13022	13023	13055.5		12958
10:40:14PM	US500	3373.17	3362	3357.5		3382	3381	3388		3367
10:42:20PM	DOW	27902.2	27788	27741		27890	27980	28163		27870
10:44:51PM	NASDAQ	11186	11102	11062		11199	11277	11336		11134	‘cess
10:46:47PM	JAPAN	23219	23138	23078		23250	23312	23347.5		21218

13/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6185 points. Change of -1.51%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,740,034,569 a change of -28.55%

12/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6280 points. Change of 2.05%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,234,357,396 a change of 7.98%

11/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6154 points. Change of 1.72%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,847,593,064 a change of 33.01%

10/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6050 points. Change of 0.3%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,644,538,945 a change of -12.52%

7/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6032 points. Change of 0.1%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,166,017,548 a change of -2.34%

6/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6026 points. Change of -1.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,266,025,733 a change of -25.48%

5/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6104 points. Change of 1.13%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,724,834,824 a change of 13.25%

#Gold #SP500 The ballad of our unwanted* cats continues, every day bringing a new wrinkle to the tale. One of the Golden Retrievers is respectful around the cats, the other harbours a dislike and distrust. The elder dog once proved she could clear a coffee table of red wine glasses with a single swipe of her tail. Seeing a cat on the coffee table, she deliberated turned, gave a happy swipe, and launched the startled cat across the room. Many traders will have shares they probably wish could be dealt with so easily.

LSE:POG certainly must feel like a fully paid up member of the “wish I could swipe it off the table” brigade. The London based Gold Mining company, once trading above £17 has seen the value brutalised, eventually reaching a bottom of 4p in 2015. This year has seen some recovery, insignificant in the great scheme of things, and we’re interested whether the recent shareholder revolt, ousting the chairman and CEO and calling for an independent investigation of transactions over the last 3 years, shall finally allow the price to commence some recovery.

Presently trading around 32p, we shall regard moves anytime soon above 36p as hopefully triggering some slight recovery to an initial 41p with secondary, if exceeded, at 45p. Obviously, for those whose funds have been on a protracted holiday, neither ambition is particularly noteworthy but should 45p make a guest appearance, this shall take the price above the prior high this year. The effect, from our perspective, shall be a hope of some recovery fuelled by historical Big Picture price levels. (See chart inset)

 

As shown, the price has spent the last few weeks adhering to the downtrend since 2011. Movement above 45p shall suggest quite strongly a genuine trend break has occurred, permitting recovery to an initial 58p with secondary, if exceeded, at 76p. Longer term (or much sooner if positive news is involved) we can postulate 116p as a major point of interest.

All the price needs do is start going up!

*The “unwanted cats” were inherited from an ill relative.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:25:05PM	BRENT	45.56
10:30:28PM	GOLD	1917	1906	1902.5	1845	1935	1949	1966	2001	1921	Success
10:33:58PM	FTSE	6246									Success
10:52:22PM	FRANCE	5076									‘cess
11:00:13PM	GERMANY	13067									‘cess
11:04:09PM	US500	3372	3350	3335.5	3318	3370	3388	3396.75	3407	3363
11:06:43PM	DOW	27948									Success
11:09:16PM	NASDAQ	11132									Success
11:17:33PM	JAPAN	23191									Success

 

12/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6280 points. Change of 2.05%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,234,357,396 a change of 7.98%

11/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6154 points. Change of 1.72%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,847,593,064 a change of 33.01%

10/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6050 points. Change of 0.3%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,644,538,945 a change of -12.52%

7/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6032 points. Change of 0.1%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,166,017,548 a change of -2.34%

6/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6026 points. Change of -1.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,266,025,733 a change of -25.48%

5/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6104 points. Change of 1.13%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,724,834,824 a change of 13.25%

4/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6036 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,055,051,224 a change of 18.31%

#FTSE #Japan It can be funny reading analysts, sometimes frantic, attempts to find a reason for a market movement. We witnessed this frenzy on Tuesday, world index growth being attributed variously, to “bond stimulus”, “interest rates”, “Gold reversing”, even the S&P nearly painting a new high. No one actually knew the root cause, perhaps it was just because it’s summer. Perhaps it was Russia coughing politely and mentioning they’re rolling out a vaccine for Covid-19!

But the opening paragraph from an article in the Telegraph rung true, perhaps indicating a greater reality.

 

Jeremy Warner, Telegraph editor, wrote;

“In money we trust, or maybe not so much these days. A rising gold price and weakening dollar can both be seen as signals that trust in sovereign currency could be going the same was as trust in Government, institutions, and mainstream political leaders.”

 

Despite the price of Gold crashing by more than 100 dollars since his article was published, the guy maybe has a point. One which will explain the constant flux in currency movements, index movements, crypto currency etc. Essentially there’s an awful lot of uncertainty at present, doubtless ‘Covid-19 provoked’ due to hesitation over economic recovery, 2nd waves, political competence, and of course what’s going to happen as schools return.

What surprises, despite all these reasons for nerves, was our article on the Euro vs The US Dollar in September last year (link). In it, we proposed criteria for the relationship to founder to 1.0635. On March 20th this year, 6 months after our original prediction, the pairing exactly hit our drop target. Importantly, the target was not broken and thus, suggesting further weakness. Instead, the relationship hit 1.0635 and bounced.

Despite deserving a “smarty pants” award for this prediction, we’re more interested in movements since our drop target was successfully achieved as it implied the presence of strength. Now, with the pairing flirting with the downtrend (Blue) since 2008, the price need only now exceed  1.190 to suggest the potential of further recovery to an initial 1.2169 with secondary, if exceeded, a visually sensible 1.2445. To be fair, we already suspect the pair shall head to 1.2445 in the fullness of time (remember, our grasp of timeframes is dodgy).

Only with closure above 1.2445 shall we believe the Euro is headed for great things as strong recovery looks inevitable.

To cancel the prospect on the immediate cycle, the relationship needs founder below 1.10 as reversal now to 1.0418 looks very possible as a future “bottom”.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:04:06PM	BRENT	44.85									‘cess
10:07:00PM	GOLD	1911.88									Success
10:20:34PM	FTSE	6144.92	6110	6042	6023	6184	6185	6217.75	6270	6124	Success
10:23:41PM	FRANCE	4977									Shambles
10:26:00PM	GERMANY	12867									Success
10:28:34PM	US500	3342.42									Success
10:31:05PM	DOW	27755									Success
10:34:05PM	NASDAQ	10942									Shambles
10:36:30PM	JAPAN	22720	22653	22545	22408	22760	22762	22844	23062	22653	Success

11/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6154 points. Change of 1.72%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,847,593,064 a change of 33.01%

10/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6050 points. Change of 0.3%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,644,538,945 a change of -12.52%

7/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6032 points. Change of 0.1%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,166,017,548 a change of -2.34%

6/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6026 points. Change of -1.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,266,025,733 a change of -25.48%

5/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6104 points. Change of 1.13%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,724,834,824 a change of 13.25%

4/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6036 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,055,051,224 a change of 18.31%

3/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6032 points. Change of 2.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,272,722,908 a change of -22.49%

#Gold #SP500 Every now and then, we’re asked about a share we’ve never heard of. This lot, based in Boston, USA and a member of the FTSE 250, certainly fitted the bill, justifying a few moments research. Their “About Us” website section proved fairly assuring with the range of companies being financed being wide and potentially quite fruitful in the longer term. To be honest, their portfolio component, a company called Spin Memory introduced a rabbit hole, one of these fascinating “I didn’t know that” moments which led to several hours being wasted absorbing information which shall never be used.

However, by many standards, Allied Minds share price has experienced a pretty vile time sine the heady days of 2015 and a share price above 7 quid. Presently trading around 42p, many investors must be praying for “bottom” but suspecting logic isn’t on their side.

 

We’re pretty interested in the near term as it appears the share price need only trade above 45p to become useful, this risking triggering a slight recovery to an initial 58p. At this level, things become crucial for the longer term thanks to the confluence of two downtrends in January this year. The Green downtrend dates back to 2015, the Blue downtrend dates from 2017. In January this year, the market gapped the share price down, ensuring the price did not break free from its brutal tumble. A few months later, things changed and we’re now justifiably interested should the share price manage to close above this trend confirming moment earlier this year.

The key number looks like 55p, the share needing to actually close above this level to suggest a longer term growth cycle is commencing.

While we’re hopeful moves above 45p shall bring the price to 58p, if this motion indeed proves capable of allowing the share to close above 55p, we can calculate a secondary recovery target at 90p. Or perhaps even 147p if movement is driven by positive news flow from the company.

If trouble is planned, the price needs retreat below the Blue downtrend, presently 27p. Any nod below this level would justify extreme panic.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:33:30PM	BRENT	45.18
9:35:30PM	GOLD	2026.46	2019	2014.5	2003	2033	2046	2054	2067	2027
9:37:35PM	FTSE	6077									‘cess
9:50:06PM	FRANCE	4930									‘cess
9:52:05PM	GERMANY	12747									‘cess
9:54:14PM	US500	3359	3334	3324	3311	3353	3363	3371	3383	3348	‘cess
9:57:52PM	DOW	27785									Success
10:06:51PM	NASDAQ	11087									‘cess
10:08:27PM	JAPAN	22492									‘cess

 

10/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6050 points. Change of 0.3%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,644,538,945 a change of -12.52%

7/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6032 points. Change of 0.1%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,166,017,548 a change of -2.34%

6/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6026 points. Change of -1.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,266,025,733 a change of -25.48%

5/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6104 points. Change of 1.13%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,724,834,824 a change of 13.25%

4/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6036 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,055,051,224 a change of 18.31%

3/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6032 points. Change of 2.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,272,722,908 a change of -22.49%

31/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 5897 points. Change of -1.54%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,512,609,995 a change of 17.63%

#Brent #Dax #NatWest Our weekly dip into the murky waters of the banking sector takes a closer looks at the NMX8350 Sector Index. Why? We’re starting to suspect and hope the decline of the retail banks is fairly close to a bottom, hopefully BOTTOM!

Firstly, if we review the low the last time the Banking Sector collapsed in 2009, the index achieved 1,877 points. This number is fairly interesting as the big picture points at 1,896 as a “bottom” on the cycle since the financial collapse.

Secondly, if we calculate on movements since the Covid-19 drop, the sector works out with 1,730 as a potential bottom. Despite this being lower than the 2009 drop, it still hints at some optimism for a bounce anytime soon. But of course, we obviously worry “lower low” thinking shall prove an issue as this takes the sector into a zone where 901 calculates as “ultimate” bottom for the market place. This certainly ties in with some really foul calculations against some banking sector components but we’d hope the visuals alone will merit an upward bounce anytime soon.

Currently the sector is trading around 2,010 points, needing below 1,940 to signal coming reversal to 1,896 with secondary, if broken, at 1,730. If our suspicion of a rebound being imminent proves valid, any recovery on the sector needs above 2,500 points to impress as this will imply a movement has “legs”.

NatWest share price potentials pretty neatly match the potential misery from the ruling sector above. Now below 103p now suggests the potential of 93p provoking a bounce point. If broken, our secondary “bottom” calculation works out at 79p. The funny thing about the secondary number is this price level would certainly trip all sorts of Stop Loss levels, along with triggering Sell Orders for those assuming NatWest are about to fall off a cliff.

If our calculation demanding the share price actually bounce at 79p proves correct, quite a few traders will find themselves covered in egg!

Overall for NatWest, our “ultimate bottom”, the level below which we cannot calculate, remains at 50p. For now, we suspect reversals must be pretty close to entering end game territory.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
12:30:58AM	BRENT	44.78	44.29	43.85	43.03	45	45.77	46.695	48.36	44.82	‘cess
12:33:18AM	GOLD	2035.5									Success
12:35:32AM	FTSE	6064.18									Shambles
12:37:32AM	FRANCE	4901.5									Shambles
12:40:03AM	GERMANY	12723	12513	12400	12266	12650	12723	12754.5	12835	12625
12:41:50AM	US500	3353
12:44:18AM	DOW	27448									‘cess
12:46:46AM	NASDAQ	11140
12:48:44AM	JAPAN	22458									‘cess

 

7/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6032 points. Change of 0.1%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,166,017,548 a change of -2.34%

6/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6026 points. Change of -1.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,266,025,733 a change of -25.48%

5/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6104 points. Change of 1.13%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,724,834,824 a change of 13.25%

4/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6036 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,055,051,224 a change of 18.31%

3/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6032 points. Change of 2.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,272,722,908 a change of -22.49%

31/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 5897 points. Change of -1.54%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,512,609,995 a change of 17.63%

30/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 5989 points. Change of -2.32%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,686,446,061 a change of 8.2%