Author: T&T Staff

#Brent #Dax As we enter September, it appears, finally, some good news may be coming. #Natwest share price has achieved the unthinkable, finally managing to close a session above the downtrend (see inset on chart) since last year. That’s the end of the good news as, in these pandemic days, we’re tending to distrust anything as straightforward as a line on a chart! A misplaced comment, an untidy cough, or a twitter storm seems sufficient to damage logic.

At present, we calculate Natwest as requiring to trade above 117.5p to signal a possibility of relief as this works out with an initial target of 124p with secondary, if exceeded, a visually pleasing 135p. Only with closure above 135p shall we feel justified in believing some true recovery has commenced, perhaps even the first grasp on a cliff face which can take the share price toward the 200p level. Unfortunately, when we review the pace of descent in the last year, any true price recovery is going to take some sort of miracle.

 

If things intend go wrong for Natwest, trades below 109p in the coming week risk ringing alarm bells as reversal to 101p (again) makes a lot of sense. Worse still, should 101p break, our secondary is now at 90p, risking taking the share through a trapdoor to around the 50p level eventually.

In normal times, we’d be pretty relaxed and promoting the possibility of some recovery but unfortunately, times are not normal and it’s impossible to forget Natwest (aka RBS) remains flirting with the all time low price level achieved in March 2009. The unpleasant reality generates a reminder of the market truism; “If it ain’t going up, it’s going down.”

 

FUTURES

Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
BRENT	45.62	45.25	45.095	44.62	45.78	46.58	46.95	47.58	45.63
GOLD	1967
FTSE	5987
FRANCE	4940
GERMANY	12938	12902	12887	12798	12993	13098	13124	13198	12955
US500	3495.57
DOW	28416
NASDAQ	12107
JAPAN	23053

 

 

28/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 5963 points. Change of -0.6%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,873,414,475 a change of 40.53%

27/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 5999 points. Change of -0.73%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,467,869,882 a change of -4.16%

26/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6043 points. Change of 0.1%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,618,462,432 a change of 3.2%

25/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6037 points. Change of -1.1%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,506,401,056 a change of 13.29%

24/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6104 points. Change of 1.72%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,095,099,740 a change of -18.48%

21/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6001 points. Change of -0.2%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,796,928,950 a change of -1.91%

20/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6013 points. Change of -1.6%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,870,716,769 a change of 8.2%

SUCCESS above means both FAST & SLOW targets were met. ‘CESS means just the FAST target met and probably the next time it is exceeded, movement to the SLOW target shall commence.

Our commentary is in two sections. Immediately below are today’s updated comments. If our commentary remains valid, the share can be found in the bottom section which has a RED heading. Hopefully, this will mean you no longer need to flip back through previous reports. HYPERLINKS DISABLED IN THIS VERSION

Please remember, all prices are mid-price (halfway between the Buy and Sell). When we refer to a price CLOSING above a specific level, we are viewing the point where we can regard a trend as changing. Otherwise, we are simply speculating on near term trading targets. Our website is www.trendsandtargets.com.

UPDATE. We often give an initial and a secondary price. If the initial is exceeded, we still expect it to fall back but the next time the initial is bettered, the price should continue to the secondary. The converse it true with price drops.

We can be contacted at info@trendsandtargets.com. Spam filters set to maximum so only legit emails get through…

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#FTSE #DAX Numbers are important. It’s 2 days until the next Grand Prix, 2 weeks ago my heart decided to try a different beat rather than “The Rhythm of Life” and the FTSE nearly closed 2 points below its last lowest low. Okay, 1.9 points for the pedants.

 

We’ve a thing about “lower lows”, even when they appear contrived. Quite how the FTSE managed to close a session at 5999.99 points amazed us but yes, it was below the prior low on August 21st of 6001.89 points. This means we must now prepare for the worst, despite the market almost being at the end of the month, along with the UK facing a holiday weekend of traffic jams, effectively ‘enjoying’ the final bank holiday of the year.

 

So what does this danger signal mean?

 

Apparently movement next below 5,988 points should trigger a reversal cycle toward an initial 5,895 points with secondary, when broken, at a bottom hopefully of 5,758 points. What fascinates about this large haul of points is the tightest Stop level working out at 6,042 points. We’re smelling a bit of a rat, thanks to it being the end of a month, a holiday weekend, a Friday, and a more than reasonable “Risk/Reward” scenario. Historically, the UK stock market isn’t a generous entity!

And what happens, if the market indeed makes it above 6,042 points? We’re looking for recovery to a fairly tame 6,058 points initially with secondary, if exceeded, a more promising 6,110 points.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:20:50PM	BRENT	45.63	45.27	45.095		45.85	46.32	46.58		45.57	Success
9:22:41PM	GOLD	1928	1918	1908		1936	1936	1940.5		1921	Success
9:42:46PM	FTSE	6016	5985	5970.5		6020	6062	6075		6023
9:49:11PM	FRANCE	4999.5	4985	4970		5021	5049	5064.5		5003
9:51:17PM	GERMANY	13086.09	13050	13001.5		13120	13147	13169.5		13077
9:54:00PM	US500	3488	3467	3454		3497	3502	3511		3477
9:57:39PM	DOW	28532	28267	28125		28476	28638	28678		28521	Success
10:01:44PM	NASDAQ	11950	11837	11784.5		11983	12050	12110		11870	‘cess
10:03:36PM	JAPAN	23243	23141	23074		23225	23276	23322.5		23176

 

27/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 5999 points. Change of -0.73%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,467,869,882 a change of -4.16%

26/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6043 points. Change of 0.1%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,618,462,432 a change of 3.2%

25/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6037 points. Change of -1.1%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,506,401,056 a change of 13.29%

24/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6104 points. Change of 1.72%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,095,099,740 a change of -18.48%

21/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6001 points. Change of -0.2%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,796,928,950 a change of -1.91%

20/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6013 points. Change of -1.6%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,870,716,769 a change of 8.2%

19/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6111 points. Change of 0.58%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,577,441,706 a change of -6.9%

#Gold #Japan Dog treats are expensive, something Metro Bank needs to be aware of. Their initiative, ‘Free Dog Treats’ until 2nd September hopefully does not reflect on the retail bank share price, especially as neither of our dogs will accept treats from strangers anyway!

 

Things are certainly not feeling particularly promising for Metro Bank’s share price as movement, anytime soon, below 96p looks perfectly capable of driving reversal to an initial 80p. In itself, this isn’t alarming but our secondary calculation is. In the event the share price manages to break below 80p, continued reversal to a ‘hopeful’ bottom of 60p calculates as possible.

Visually, such a drop target level is quite discouraging, taking the share price to a new all time low and forcing us to clutch at straws, when seeking viable movements which shall promise a logical recovery. The great danger, should 60p make itself known, is this propels the share into a region with an ultimate bottom of 6p, the level below which we cannot calculate.

 

It’s quite distressing but we’ve little choice but to suggest any price recovery needs to be above 150p before we dare take it seriously as this calculates with an initial 207p. If exceeded, our longer term secondary works out at 263p. At time of writing, the share is trading around the 1 pound mark and we’re perfectly aware our demand the price recovers by 50%, just to tick a positive box in our software, is an absurd requirement. Unfortunately, when dealing with a share price which once was above £40 just over 2 years ago, the bandwidth of movement calculations becomes silly.

The chart below, out of necessity, is based on moves this year. Otherwise, when viewed against a scale which goes up to 40 quid, this years movements look like a flat line in comparison.

 

For now, Metro looks attractive for dogs but we’re not convinced about investors.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:30:09PM	BRENT	46.19
9:38:38PM	GOLD	1953.56	1939	1935.5	1929	1949	1957	1960	1974	1944	‘cess
9:40:39PM	FTSE	6065									Shambles
9:42:30PM	FRANCE	5059
9:45:46PM	GERMANY	13253.67
9:49:50PM	US500	3483.72									Success
10:09:44PM	DOW	28377									‘cess
10:11:40PM	NASDAQ	11991.54									Success
10:13:50PM	JAPAN	23310	23156	23072.5	22953	23256	23322	23373.5	23445	23228	Shambles

 

 

 

26/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6043 points. Change of 0.1%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,618,462,432 a change of 3.2%

25/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6037 points. Change of -1.1%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,506,401,056 a change of 13.29%

24/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6104 points. Change of 1.72%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,095,099,740 a change of -18.48%

21/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6001 points. Change of -0.2%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,796,928,950 a change of -1.91%

20/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6013 points. Change of -1.6%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,870,716,769 a change of 8.2%

19/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6111 points. Change of 0.58%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,577,441,706 a change of -6.9%

18/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6076 points. Change of -0.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,842,583,289 a change of -9.83%

#FTSE #SP500 Every now and them, someone will write “you cannot chart or analyse AIM shares”, neatly ignoring a plethora of evidence to the contrary. Eurasia, which we reviewed it in February, is a case in point as we pointed out 19.75p as a major target level for the future.

The inset on the chart below speaks volumes, rather more eloquently than self proclaimed internet chatroom experts. On July 17th,  5 months following our report at the start of the year, prior to the share price facing suspension and a global pandemic, the price opted to close at our “major target level”. From our perspective, this was a pretty big deal, confirming we’d been mapping the correct trend and also, giving considerable hope for the future if the share price next managed close above our target level.

Thankfully, in the period since, the share has behaved pretty well according to our rulebook, now giving quite considerable hope for the longer term. Hopefully this platinum and gold producer manage to avoid blotting their copy book and continue to enjoy the benefits of metal prices surging to record high levels in a period where reduced fuel costs make extraction and processing an advantageous exercise.

Movement now above 28.5p, the most recent high, calculates with a further growth potential to an initial 34p. Movement above this level should be capable of considerable excitement, our secondary working out at a longer term 45p. Only in the event of closure above 45p dare we mention a further attraction from a distant looking 77p.

The share price currently needs close below Blue on the chart, a downtrend dating back 20 years, before we’d suggest panic. At present, this level is at 21p and there are some quite painful implications with such a move, basically taking the first step on a slippery slope to a meltdown ultimate bottom of 5p. At present, nothing warns of this danger.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:14:05PM	BRENT	46.42									‘cess
10:21:51PM	GOLD	1928.68									‘cess
10:25:12PM	FTSE	6055	6012	5983	5907	6055	6115	6123	6150	6080	Shambles
11:00:09PM	FRANCE	5017									Success
11:01:47PM	GERMANY	13102									‘cess
11:03:52PM	US500	3447	3424	3416	3404	3437	3452	3458.5	3470	3438	Success
11:05:42PM	DOW	28247									‘cess
11:08:26PM	NASDAQ	11739									Sorry
11:10:07PM	JAPAN	23308									Success

25/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6037 points. Change of -1.1%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,506,401,056 a change of 13.29%

24/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6104 points. Change of 1.72%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,095,099,740 a change of -18.48%

21/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6001 points. Change of -0.2%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,796,928,950 a change of -1.91%

20/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6013 points. Change of -1.6%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,870,716,769 a change of 8.2%

19/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6111 points. Change of 0.58%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,577,441,706 a change of -6.9%

18/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6076 points. Change of -0.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,842,583,289 a change of -9.83%

17/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6127 points. Change of 0.61%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,261,456,332 a change of 16.19%

Aviva plc (LSE:AV.) The UK’s largest insurer and pension provider, Aviva, were an early adopter of the policy to suspend dividend payments in 2020. This stance has apparently increased the groups capital ratio to 182%, hopefully a sign of health for the future. However, they recently opted to cough up a 6p per share dividend at the end of September, giving us excuse to speculate on future share price movements possible before the ex-div date.

 

Since the Covid-19 share price drop in March, Aviva’s share price has behaved as poorly as a retail bank, failing to gain sufficient traction to clamber out of the muck. Presently trading around 286p, the share price requires above 313p before we shall dare believe it has made a triggering movement, one capable of driving recovery to an initial 348p. If exceeded, our secondary calculation works out at a rather more positive sounding 426p, a number which our software advises we should be confident about! Visually, there is certainly ample reason to suspect some hesitation should 426p make a guest appearance as this almost matches the price level, pre-Covid.

 

A family member works with an American investment bank as a programmer and, in common with most corporates, the company moved fairly seamlessly to a ‘working from home’ ethic. He’s been advised this Coronavirus free regime is planned to continue until mid-2021, so opted to ditch his rented accommodation in the city, purchasing a house in the wilds of Scotland with decent internet connectivity as a primary requirement. After making the big move 600 miles north, settling in to enjoy the rotten Scottish weather, he admits the ‘word on the street’ from corporate strongly hints the days of working from glass towers in the city are over with the bean counters realising substantial savings can be made. Aviva certainly qualify as a company with strong city presences and we wonder whether the blinds may completely come up on many of their offices again.

 

For it all to go wrong for Aviva, their share price needs dip below RED on the chart, presently at 214p. Such a movement will suggest coming reversal to a bottom, hopefully, of 128p. We cannot calculate below such a price level.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:10:28PM	BRENT	45.52									Success
10:12:57PM	GOLD	1929.29	1923	1914.5	1899	1938	1952	1963.25	1969	1932
10:15:53PM	FTSE	6106.9									Success
10:23:49PM	FRANCE	5007									Success
10:26:04PM	GERMANY	13072									Success
10:28:24PM	US500	3429.92									Success
10:30:41PM	DOW	28294									Success
10:32:54PM	NASDAQ	11639	11583	11534.5	11470	11640	11726	11740.5	11811	11601	Success
10:35:03PM	JAPAN	23130									Success

 

24/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6104 points. Change of 1.72%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,095,099,740 a change of -18.48%

21/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6001 points. Change of -0.2%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,796,928,950 a change of -1.91%

20/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6013 points. Change of -1.6%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,870,716,769 a change of 8.2%

19/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6111 points. Change of 0.58%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,577,441,706 a change of -6.9%

18/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6076 points. Change of -0.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,842,583,289 a change of -9.83%

17/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6127 points. Change of 0.61%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,261,456,332 a change of 16.19%

14/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6090 points. Change of -1.54%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,667,761,391 a change of -1.93%

#Brent #Dax Following a little brush with mortality* last weekend, questioning whether things can come back from the dead is probably in particularly poor taste. Unfortunately, the sentiment applies to Lloyds as the share price continues to languish in the gutter, despite recently breaking across its own ruling Blue downtrend. Since the trend break, nothing interesting has occurred!

 

It looks like 30.9p should now be regarded as presenting a reasonable trigger level to promote some share price movements for this lazy share price. While presently trading around 28p, this may feel an impossible ambition but we’re inclined to take some (slight) hope from the respect paid to the long term Red uptrend which dates back 8 years. The current situation suggests movement above 30.9p should now attempt an initial 34p with secondary, if exceeded, at a mildly more interesting 35.7p.

Our interest in the 35.7p level may prove important as closure above 35.7 should be significant, tipping a pretty major domino in a longer term price movement cycle which ‘risks’ now heading to 48p as a major point of interest.

 

Of course, the Red uptrend also presents a threat, now suggesting any new weakness below 27.5p could cause the share to retreat to an initial 24.7p with secondary, if broken, at a bottom (hopefully) of 21p. For the present, we’re inclined to mild optimism, if only thanks to the share price having so far avoided the option of closing a session below the point of trend break. This tends suggest the price is awaiting sufficient reason to actually start moving again.

*an unpleasant cardiac event, a surprise rare side effect of a type of chemotherapy.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
2:20:52PM	BRENT	44.74	44.02	43.635	42.89	44.9	45.05	45.31	45.74	44.37	‘cess
2:22:39PM	GOLD	1943.44									‘cess
2:56:49PM	FTSE	6017.61									‘cess
2:59:46PM	FRANCE	4904.7									Success
3:02:11PM	GERMANY	12791	12772	12725.75	12500	12800	12800	12856	12932	12733	Shambles
3:07:51PM	US500	3396									Shambles
3:09:45PM	DOW	27919									‘cess
3:21:55PM	NASDAQ	11568									‘cess
3:24:27PM	JAPAN	22907									‘cess

21/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6001 points. Change of -0.2%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,796,928,950 a change of -1.91%

20/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6013 points. Change of -1.6%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,870,716,769 a change of 8.2%

19/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6111 points. Change of 0.58%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,577,441,706 a change of -6.9%

18/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6076 points. Change of -0.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,842,583,289 a change of -9.83%

17/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6127 points. Change of 0.61%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,261,456,332 a change of 16.19%

14/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6090 points. Change of -1.54%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,667,761,391 a change of -1.93%

13/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6185 points. Change of -1.51%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,740,034,569 a change of -28.55%

#SP500 #GOLD The day after we discussed trading internationally, the need arose to purchase something from Canada, hence GBPCAD. The initial urge, just to pay, was somehow suppressed to give time for a look at the currency pairing.

Presently trading around 1.74, the relationship needs strengthen above 1.77 to confirm the potential of recovery to an initial 1.783 with secondary, if exceeded, up at 1.85. Visually, each ambition makes a degree of sense with the secondary, if achieved, taking the pair into a zone with longer term possibilities at 1.97.

Needless to say, the option “Buy It Now” was quickly chosen, realising the probable potential of 1.85 made little difference when considering spending 270 Canadian Dollars on an obscure electronic item!

FTSE for FRIDAY The market feels a bit odd, the FTSE ending Thursday really feeling like it wants to reverse a bit further. This is quite at odds with US markets, all of which feel they want to strength a bit. Friday should prove interesting as surely one shall influence the other, giving a clue as to where the underlying trend presently lies.

Near term, the FTSE (and please remember we are talking about the London market during trading hours only) calculates as capable of some reversal, should the index wander below 6008 points. A movement such as this risks triggering reversals to an initial 5949 points with secondary, if broken, working out at 5900 points.

In fairness, we need to mention this sort of calamity takes the market into a position where, in the absence of miracles, ongoing travel to a hopeful bottom of 5770 points is possible eventually.

 

The converse side, comes should the FTSE somehow manage above 6046 points. Such a scenario allows for slightly useless recovery to an initial 6058 points with secondary, if exceeded, calculating at a rather more useful looking 6098 points. This would certainly undo the poison of the last few sessions, leaving the FTSE poised for 6140 and beyond.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:46:43PM	BRENT	45.34	44.4	44.155	Subscribe	45.42	45.48	45.885	Subscribe	45.13	Shambles
9:48:53PM	GOLD	1949.27	1925	1921.5		1947	1956	1964		1937	‘cess
9:54:29PM	FTSE	6022.91	6008	5955		6057	6036	6046		6009	‘cess
9:58:52PM	FRANCE	4918.8	4885	4881		4930	4939	4954		4900	‘cess
10:01:37PM	GERMANY	12869	12782	12747		12881	12893	12950.5		12782	Success
10:07:13PM	US500	3386	3369	3354		3392	3389	3393		3374
10:20:54PM	DOW	27745	27499	27397.5		27635	27781	27838		27680	Success
10:23:27PM	NASDAQ	11487	11350	11299		11440	11503	11535.5		11350	Success
10:27:03PM	JAPAN	22962	22837	22727.5		23000	23076	23108.5		22922	‘cess

 

20/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6013 points. Change of -1.6%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,870,716,769 a change of 8.2%

19/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6111 points. Change of 0.58%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,577,441,706 a change of -6.9%

18/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6076 points. Change of -0.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,842,583,289 a change of -9.83%

17/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6127 points. Change of 0.61%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,261,456,332 a change of 16.19%

14/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6090 points. Change of -1.54%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,667,761,391 a change of -1.93%

13/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6185 points. Change of -1.51%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,740,034,569 a change of -28.55%

12/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6280 points. Change of 2.05%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,234,357,396 a change of 7.98%