#FTSE #JAPAN Something quite horrible is going on with Taylor Wimpey, it almost feeling like all the Doctors, Engineers, AI Wizards, flooding across the Channel in small boats are failing to join in the competitive boom to buy new homes. This year has seen Taylor Wimpey share price slump from 115p to 75p, a drop of 35%. Obviously, the Bank of England’s ongoing assault on industry has been the primary cause, interest rates remaining higher than they should and making the idea of new mortgages quite difficult. Now, with the added excuse of Iran, the BoE will doubtless continue its efforts to stifle the economy and contribute to inflationary pressures.
What we don’t entirely get is the flow of positive stories for Taylor Wimpey, boasting of coming developments all over the place. Across on the mainland, there’s even talk of them building 100 new homes in an area nicknamed Scotlands Chernobyl, an utterly failed 1970’s development of council flats. While the largely destroyed buildings remain, they certainly prove a useful backdrop for film companies shooting Zombie scenes or a backdrop of urban warfare scenes, the only part of the area which remains (mostly) intact being the road network. For visitors, when approaching Port Glasgow, DO NOT go left at the first roundabout as even Dante didn’t envision such desolation in his circles of hell. The council thought they were building flats for shipyard workers, exquisitely timed for the decade when all the shipyards shut down.
Touching on the subject of the media, we recently watched an excellent Netflix show called “Should I Marry a Murderer?”. Were it not for the subject matter, the tourism authorities would surely promote the 3 part program. The camerawork shows why Argyll is tolerable, even the place where the bloke hid the body providing amazing views. Such was the effect of the Covid-19 lockdown we knew nothing of the events depicted, a true story. It’s a tale in which the bloke currently in prison probably will regard his near marriage to the lady doctor, thinking from behind bars; “Gosh, dodged a bullet there!”. It was compulsive viewing, “starring” the lady doctor herself.
The underlying theme to the tale was fairly simple. Don’t ride a bicycle at night on a remote fast (60mph+) road, after the pubs close. Scotland, with very little in the way of motorways, is served with some incredibly fast “A” roads, where cyclists should be banned. There is no logic which allows a poorly lit object at 12mph pedalling along an A road with a 60 or 70 mph speed limit. As they saying goes; “being in the right is no consolation to the next of kin”. But in this instance, the guy really should not have buried the body and concealed the incident, an unfortunate side effect of the terror Drink/Drive laws induce in drunk drivers. A personal memory, from the 1980’s, involved being helped from the bar in Argyll into my 4×4, so I could drive a bunch of folk home. En-route, a police car was encountered on the single track road, easily avoided by driving off road around him. Then, it was funny, doubly so as I’d engaged “low ratio” on the gearbox to ensure the off roader couldn’t exceed 27mph, a safety precaution which made sense through a whisky haze. From the same period, I can tell the tale of a community police officer in Sutherland, making his way across a road from the Richonich on his hands and knees and pulling himself into his police car, driving off, eventually realising turning on his lights might help. The subsequent crash was, as always, blamed on a deer.
Returning to the subject, we like Taylor Wimpey, if only because their previous incarnation as Taylor Woodrow provided the best holiday experience for a child. They were building a hydro electric scheme in Romania, my favourite uncle was a manager, my Dad decided we’d drive there in a brand new Vauxhall VX4/90 in 1976. The trip was amazing, this gold coloured flagship of the Vauxhall range having children running alongside and waving as we drove through countries which no longer exist. When we returned to the UK, the car was returned to Luton (Vauxhall) and he grabbed a Rover 3500 as his daily car, admitting the Vauxhall flagship never let him just sit back and relax. With less haste, Taylor Woodrow changed to Taylor Wimpey but still remain as the hosts of an astounding holiday in Europe, an era where there were borders between each country and our UK passports allowed us through on a nod at every checkpoint.
Except in Romania.
My Dad (and I) had to go into the border office, hand over a 200 pack of Marlboro cigarettes wrapped in a newspaper, then waved away by suddenly cheerful customs guards. Romania was “different”.
But currently, Taylor Wimpey share price is a little bit terrifying. Despite the companies stonking great dividend, the share value appears to be fascinated with Lemming migration, currently residing in a zone where weakness below 74.9p risks triggering reversal to an initial 68.2p. Our secondary, if broken, calculates down at an absurd 47p, a number which makes no visual sense. Unless we return to the era of the market crash from 2009, when the stock market was being ruined by spectacular levels of governmental incompetence, internationally. It’s funny how easy it is to develop a theme that what really damages economies, are politicians.
Should Taylor Wimpey intend dig itself out of the current hole, we’d be inclined to regard above 81.7p as a viable trigger level, one which calculates as provoking recovery to an initial 92p with our secondary, if beaten, working out at a future 105p and the need to look hard at the tea leaves again.
FUTURES
FUTURES
|
Time Issued |
Market |
Price At Issue |
Short Entry |
Fast Exit |
Slow Exit |
Stop |
Long Entry |
Fast Exit |
Slow Exit |
Stop |
Prior |
|
10:53:20PM |
BRENT |
9125.5 |
‘cess |
||||||||
|
10:57:40PM |
GOLD |
4260.29 |
Shambles |
||||||||
|
11:00:16PM |
FTSE |
10289.4 |
10209 |
10156 |
10069 |
10294 |
10373 |
10439 |
10525 |
10311 |
‘cess |
|
11:03:22PM |
STOX50 |
6070.5 |
‘cess |
||||||||
|
11:06:54PM |
GERMANY |
24459.4 |
|
||||||||
|
11:42:44PM |
US500 |
7372.1 |
‘cess |
||||||||
|
11:45:15PM |
DOW |
50690.8 |
‘cess |
||||||||
|
11:48:16PM |
NASDAQ |
28985 |
Success |
||||||||
|
11:51:35PM |
JAPAN |
64115 |
63685 |
62699 |
61567 |
64350 |
64750 |
65292 |
66022 |
64370 |
‘cess |
SUCCESS above means both FAST & SLOW targets were met. ‘CESS means just the FAST target met and probably the next time it is exceeded, movement to the SLOW target shall commence.
Our commentary is in two sections. Immediately below are today’s updated comments. If our commentary remains valid, the share can be found in the bottom section which has a RED heading. Hopefully, this will mean you no longer need to flip back through previous reports. HYPERLINKS DISABLED IN THIS VERSION
Please remember, all prices are mid-price (halfway between the Buy and Sell). When we refer to a price CLOSING above a specific level, we are viewing the point where we can regard a trend as changing. Otherwise, we are simply speculating on near term trading targets. Our website is www.trendsandtargets.com.
UPDATE. We often give an initial and a secondary price. If the initial is exceeded, we still expect it to fall back but the next time the initial is bettered, the price should continue to the secondary. The converse it true with price drops.
We can be contacted at info@trendsandtargets.com. Spam filters set to maximum so only legit emails get through…
Section One – Outlook Updated Today. Click here for Section Two – Outlook Remains Valid shares
Click Epic to jump to share: LSE:FRES Fresnillo** **LSE:IGG IG Group** **LSE:NWG Natwest** **LSE:RKH Rockhopper** **
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Updated charts published on : Fresnillo, IG Group, Natwest, Rockhopper,
LSE:FRES Fresnillo. Close Mid-Price: 2868 Percentage Change: + 0.00% Day High: 0 Day Low: 0
Target met. In the event Fresnillo experiences weakness below 2868p it ca ……..
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View Previous Fresnillo & Big Picture ***
LSE:IGG IG Group. Close Mid-Price: 1857 Percentage Change: + 0.00% Day High: 0 Day Low: 0
Continued trades against IGG with a mid-price ABOVE 1890p should improve t ……..
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View Previous IG Group & Big Picture ***
LSE:NWG Natwest. Close Mid-Price: 593 Percentage Change: + 0.00% Day High: 0 Day Low: 0
All Natwest needs are mid-price trades ABOVE 609 to improve acceleration ……..
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View Previous Natwest & Big Picture ***
LSE:RKH Rockhopper. Close Mid-Price: 72.3 Percentage Change: + 0.00% Day High: 0 Day Low: 0
In the event Rockhopper experiences weakness below 71p it calculates with ……..
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View Previous Rockhopper & Big Picture ***