#Stoxx #SP500 Few things get our attention more quickly than when some fairly respected writers start describing a share as “cheap” or a “bargain”. Quite how their vast reserves of wisdom allow them to use such hyperbole utterly escapes us as there is no such thing as a “cheap” share. At best, there’s a balance of probabilities but more usually, it’s a case of how impressed the analyst may have been about whatever ‘Important Presentation & Dinner’ they were invited to. Or maybe they’ve actually done the work and given the fundamentals a seriously hard look.
I’ve an abiding memory of an acquaintance waxing lyrical about a particular hotel group and their hospitality. He and his wife had been flown to a presentation, wined and dined all weekend, the Sunday afternoon spoiled by a 45 minute presentation on the companies plans for expansion. His enthusiasm lacked any bounds, especially as he was now on first name terms with the board. Deciding to wait a week or two after his first enthusiastic article appeared, we presented our (usual) dispassionate look at the companies prospects from our perspective. The prospects were foul, the market already having drawn its own conclusions, and despite a mini share price rally with some positive articles appearing, the writing was on the wall. The usual script was followed thereafter, a profit warning, a panic share price consolidation, but within 18 months they were delisted from the AIM, the company entering liquidation.
In any case, how can National Grid be described as “Cheap”. Their share price is at levels repeatedly seen since 2014, so at best it should be described as stable! Here in Scotland, the company are certainly not well thought of, charging producers £4.70 per MWh to connect, along with £7.36/MWh to connect in the Scottish Highlands. Meanwhile, in Englands and Wales, the same action is currently just 49p and in the south of England, electricity generators are actually paid by National Grid to connect to the grid. Unsurprisingly, Scotland has the most expensive electricity in the UK, despite covering 52% of National Grids network, being a net exporter of energy. In summary, are we’re based in Scotland, we obviously have a distinct bias against National Grid, the company complaining the price disparity if due to actions by the UK Government and their hands are tied.
National Grid share price is currently down 17% from the point they started 2024, at 1057p. An irritated series of share price movements (circled) toward the end of May saw the share price break below the uptrend since 2018. This is a worry, following on from two strong Gap Down movements by the market and maybe giving early warning for further falls ahead. It’s certainly now the case where below 859p risks triggering reversal to 822p with our longer term secondary, if broken, at 714p. Visually, there’s a fairly solid implication some sort of bounce can be anticipated, should this secondary make a shocking appearance.
Our usual, converse, scenario examines what to expect, if National Grid intends head upward. We’re inclined to assign a share price of 950p as a trigger level, one which if exceeded should promote price recovery to an initial 1,000p with our secondary, if beaten, at 1,077p. Thanks to the collection of large gaps, we’re unable to confidently predict anything above 1,077p at present but we shall revisit this in future, if things start to attain any degree of sanity.
FUTURES
| Time Issued | Market | Price At Issue | Short Entry | Fast Exit | Slow Exit | Stop | Long Entry | Fast Exit | Slow Exit | Stop | Prior |
| 11:06:02PM | BRENT | 8243.1 | |||||||||
| 11:16:47PM | GOLD | 2323.56 | Success | ||||||||
| 11:23:11PM | FTSE | 8213.6 | Success | ||||||||
| 11:35:17PM | STOX50 | 5037.8 | 4999 | 4928 | 4876 | 5045 | 5044 | 5076 | 5121 | 5018 | Success |
| 11:38:27PM | GERMANY | 18643 | Success | ||||||||
| 12:27:54AM | US500 | 5429.3 | 5409 | 5405 | 5391 | 5426 | 5447 | 5470 | 5513 | 5410 | Success |
| 12:30:34AM | DOW | 38691.5 | Success | ||||||||
| 12:34:44AM | NASDAQ | 19564.6 | ‘cess | ||||||||
| 12:38:20AM | JAPAN | 39160 |
12/06/2024 FTSE Closed at 8215 points. Change of 0.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,768,504,488 a change of -2.17%
11/06/2024 FTSE Closed at 8147 points. Change of -0.98%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,940,759,501 a change of 69.47%
10/06/2024 FTSE Closed at 8228 points. Change of -0.21%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,685,518,096 a change of -0.6%
7/06/2024 FTSE Closed at 8245 points. Change of -0.48%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,713,927,581 a change of 0.32%
6/06/2024 FTSE Closed at 8285 points. Change of 0.47%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,698,915,634 a change of -17.77%
5/06/2024 FTSE Closed at 8246 points. Change of 0.17%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,714,375,018 a change of -25.64%
4/06/2024 FTSE Closed at 8232 points. Change of -0.36%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,684,560,050 a change of 30.84% 
SUCCESS above means both FAST & SLOW targets were met. ‘CESS means just the FAST target met and probably the next time it is exceeded, movement to the SLOW target shall commence.
Our commentary is in two sections. Immediately below are today’s updated comments. If our commentary remains valid, the share can be found in the bottom section which has a RED heading. Hopefully, this will mean you no longer need to flip back through previous reports. HYPERLINKS DISABLED IN THIS VERSION
Please remember, all prices are mid-price (halfway between the Buy and Sell). When we refer to a price CLOSING above a specific level, we are viewing the point where we can regard a trend as changing. Otherwise, we are simply speculating on near term trading targets. Our website is www.trendsandtargets.com.
UPDATE. We often give an initial and a secondary price. If the initial is exceeded, we still expect it to fall back but the next time the initial is bettered, the price should continue to the secondary. The converse it true with price drops.
We can be contacted at info@trendsandtargets.com. Spam filters set to maximum so only legit emails get through…
Section One – Outlook Updated Today. Click here for Section Two – Outlook Remains Valid shares
Click Epic to jump to share: LSE:BME B & M** **LSE:GENL Genel** **LSE:PHP Primary Health** **LSE:RR. Rolls Royce** **
********
Updated charts published on : B & M, Genel, Primary Health, Rolls Royce,
LSE:BME B & M Close Mid-Price: 473.3 Percentage Change: -2.41% Day High: 483.3 Day Low: 471.4
Target met. Weakness on B & M below 471.4 will invariably lead to 466p wi ……..
</p
View Previous B & M & Big Picture ***
LSE:GENL Genel Close Mid-Price: 99 Percentage Change: -2.56% Day High: 103 Day Low: 97.7
All Genel needs are mid-price trades ABOVE 103 to improve acceleration to ……..
</p
View Previous Genel & Big Picture ***
LSE:PHP Primary Health. Close Mid-Price: 91.9 Percentage Change: + 1.43% Day High: 92.9 Day Low: 89.8
Target met. If Primary Health experiences continued weakness below 89.8, ……..
</p
View Previous Primary Health & Big Picture ***
LSE:RR. Rolls Royce. Close Mid-Price: 469.4 Percentage Change: + 0.95% Day High: 472.1 Day Low: 461.6
Continued trades against RR. with a mid-price ABOVE 472.1 should improve ……..
</p
View Previous Rolls Royce & Big Picture ***