In a classic instance of “getting it wrong”, we read the fluff press release from the UK Government, announcing a fabulous, world beating, initiative, a brand new equity loan scheme designed to support first time buyers. To our utter surprise, the market chose to “believe the headline” rather than “question reality” with the domestic building sector accelerating by around 15% on average, this despite everyone knowing in their heart of hearts it was a “fluff” announcement, designed to detract attention from more important matters.
The reality of the initiative will pull everything up short, there probably being a requirement for DNA tests to ensure no applicant has the Red Hair gene, every supplicant enjoying a 1/1 from a prestigeous university, and of course, a guarantee of a job for life from their employer. The usual, in other words, an initiative which shall be torpedoed by small print. Most recently, we saw this sort of nonsense with the cost of heating oil, a Government Initiative promising £300 off the next bill. But the reality proved ridiculous, a check in Scotland revealing no-one had successfully applied for their £300. The media, of course, loudly proclaimed the initial idea, yet failed to mention that after 6 months, not a single household benefited from the initiative.
This sort of “let them eat cake” thinking shall end quite poorly as sooner of later, idiotic politicians shall find themselves in a King Canute situation, a poor bloke often blamed as being delusional. The reality was he was proving to his subjects that just because he said something, it didn’t make it true. The populace had to watch the tide swill around his hairy legs before they started to see the point. Unfortunately, in the case of UK Politics, the players appear to be full of self delusion, thinking saying something makes it true. The fate of the fragrant Nicola Sturgeon, disgraced former head of the Scottish Government has become a perfect example. Nowadays, if she says anything, an entire nation checks its validity as who knows, water might not be wet! (We admit a tiny bit of bias where she’s concerned…)
Anyway, our personal political axes aside, we strongly suspect the Domestic Building Industry flourish shall prove to be a flash in the pan, worse manipulation of the markets than currently being inflicted on the oil markets. From our sceptical perspective, we need Persimmon to CLOSE a session above 1401p before we shall dare the share price is exhibiting true growth potentials. It’s probably true above 1350p shall prove capable of promoting movement but we’re cynical, due to man made immediate movements we regard as “pretend”.
There is an interesting immediate signal, the Blue downtrend since 2021 currently sitting at 1330p. As the chart extract below shows, the market refused to let Persimmon share price to actually CLOSE the session above the trend. This could be quite interesting, like spotting a cop with a speed camera trying to hide behind an elephant. After all, who’d notice an elephant in Surrey?
Conventional wisdom amongst brokers is to propose Persimmon as being in a “no brainer” position, where every day in the future promises to be a happy one. As the two chart extracts above show, we’re not entirely sold on this concept, quite the opposite as we suspect the immediate cycle of gains to be fake. If we’re right, below 1301p has the potential of triggering reversals to an initial 1178p with our secondary, if broken, at a hopeful bottom at 1,094p. Though we can paste on a potential third level “bottom” at 1,019p… This is not a tidy situation.
Our alternate “happy” scenario, if the brokers gagging about upward potentials prove correct, demands we wait until such time Persimmon share price exceeds 1401p as this should signal a recovery cycle commencing to an initial 1645p with our secondary, if exceeded, working out at a future 1781p. This is all quite a big deal, giving a Big Picture suggestion that a future 2414p is dangling a distant attraction somewhere in the mists of time.
Our kneejerk is to anticipate reversals for Persimmon, if only because “the headline is always the lie”.
FUTURES
FUTURES
| Time Issued | Market | Price At Issue | Short Entry | Fast Exit | Slow Exit | Stop | Long Entry | Fast Exit | Slow Exit | Stop | Prior |
| 10:20:26PM | BRENT | 9796.8 | Shambles | ||||||||
| 10:48:47PM | GOLD | 4114.04 | 4110 | 3989 | 3753 | 4170 | 4170 | 4185 | 4210 | 4140 | Success |
| 10:53:59PM | FTSE | 10722.1 | |||||||||
| 10:56:30PM | STOX50 | 6337.1 | 6284 | 6257 | 6218 | 6315 | 6374 | 6386 | 6400 | 6333 | Success |
| 10:59:10PM | GERMANY | 25496.7 | ‘cess | ||||||||
| 11:01:53PM | US500 | 7684.9 | |||||||||
| 11:05:17PM | DOW | 51480.3 | ‘cess | ||||||||
| 11:10:55PM | NASDAQ | 30266.5 | ‘cess | ||||||||
| 11:15:37PM | JAPAN | 65680 |
SUCCESS above means both FAST & SLOW targets were met. ‘CESS means just the FAST target met and probably the next time it is exceeded, movement to the SLOW target shall commence.
Our commentary is in two sections. Immediately below are today’s updated comments. If our commentary remains valid, the share can be found in the bottom section which has a RED heading. Hopefully, this will mean you no longer need to flip back through previous reports. HYPERLINKS DISABLED IN THIS VERSION
Please remember, all prices are mid-price (halfway between the Buy and Sell). When we refer to a price CLOSING above a specific level, we are viewing the point where we can regard a trend as changing. Otherwise, we are simply speculating on near term trading targets. Our website is www.trendsandtargets.com.
UPDATE. We often give an initial and a secondary price. If the initial is exceeded, we still expect it to fall back but the next time the initial is bettered, the price should continue to the secondary. The converse it true with price drops.
We can be contacted at info@trendsandtargets.com. Spam filters set to maximum so only legit emails get through…
Section One – Outlook Updated Today. Click here for Section Two – Outlook Remains Valid shares
Click Epic to jump to share: LSE:ASC Asos** **LSE:BBY BALFOUR BEATTY** **LSE:BLOE Block Energy PLC** **LSE:BME B & M** **LSE:GKP Gulf Keystone** **LSE:STAN Standard Chartered** **LSE:TERN Tern Plc** **LSE:TW. Taylor Wimpey** **
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Updated charts published on : Asos, BALFOUR BEATTY, Block Energy PLC, B & M, Gulf Keystone, Standard Chartered, Tern Plc, Taylor Wimpey,
LSE:ASC Asos. Close Mid-Price: 499.5 Percentage Change: + 0.00% Day High: 510 Day Low: 497
In the event of ASC share price managing to exceed 510 (please, not an in ……..
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View Previous Asos & Big Picture ***
LSE:BBY BALFOUR BEATTY. Close Mid-Price: 945 Percentage Change: + 0.00% Day High: 958 Day Low: 935.5
Further movement against BALFOUR BEATTY ABOVE 958 should improve accelera ……..
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View Previous BALFOUR BEATTY & Big Picture ***
LSE:BLOE Block Energy PLC. Close Mid-Price: 0.83 Percentage Change: + 0.00% Day High: 0.975 Day Low: 0.8
Weakness on Block Energy PLC below 0.8 will invariably lead to 0.65p and ……..
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View Previous Block Energy PLC & Big Picture ***
LSE:BME B & M. Close Mid-Price: 252 Percentage Change: + 0.00% Day High: 254.2 Day Low: 248.8
Target met. Simply managing to get the share price above 255 is the next ……..
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View Previous B & M & Big Picture ***
LSE:GKP Gulf Keystone. Close Mid-Price: 205 Percentage Change: + 0.00% Day High: 206 Day Low: 201
Target met. All Gulf Keystone needs are mid-price trades ABOVE 206 to imp ……..
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View Previous Gulf Keystone & Big Picture ***
LSE:STAN Standard Chartered. Close Mid-Price: 2322 Percentage Change: + 0.00% Day High: 2356 Day Low: 2300
If the price of Standard Chartered manages to move ABOVE 2356, initial UP ……..
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View Previous Standard Chartered & Big Picture ***
LSE:TERN Tern Plc. Close Mid-Price: 0.85 Percentage Change: + 0.00% Day High: 0.925 Day Low: 0.85
If Tern Plc experiences continued weakness below 0.85, it will invariably ……..
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View Previous Tern Plc & Big Picture ***
LSE:TW. Taylor Wimpey. Close Mid-Price: 89.32 Percentage Change: + 0.00% Day High: 98.8 Day Low: 88.8
Target met. In the event of Taylor Wimpey enjoying further trades beyond ……..
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View Previous Taylor Wimpey & Big Picture ***
*** End of “Updated Today” comments on shares. Listed below are those where commentary remains valid.
Click Epic to jump to share:LSE:AAL Anglo American** **LSE:AML Aston Martin** **LSE:AV. Aviva** **LSE:AVCT Avacta** **LSE:AZN Astrazeneca** **LSE:BARC Barclays** **LSE:BP. BP PLC** **LSE:BT.A British Telecom** **LSE:CAR Carclo** **LSE:CNA Centrica** **LSE:CPI Capita** **LSE:DGE Diageo** **LSE:ECO ECO (Atlantic) O & G** **LSE:EMG MAN** **LSE:EXPN Experian** **LSE:EZJ EasyJet** **LSE:FGP Firstgroup** **LSE:FOXT Foxtons** **LSE:FRES Fresnillo** **LSE:GENL Genel** **LSE:GLEN Glencore Xstra** **LSE:GRG Greggs** **LSE:HIK Hikma** **LSE:HSBA HSBC** **LSE:IAG British Airways** **LSE:IGG IG Group** **LSE:IQE IQE** **LSE:ITM ITM Power** **LSE:ITRK Intertek** **LSE:ITV ITV** **LSE:LLOY Lloyds Grp.** **LSE:MKS Marks and Spencer** **LSE:MRO Melrose** **LSE:NG. National Glib** **LSE:NWG Natwest** **LSE:OCDO Ocado Plc** **LSE:ONT Oxford Nanopore Tech** **LSE:OXIG Oxford Instruments** **LSE:PHP Primary Health** **LSE:PMG Parkmead** **LSE:QED Quadrise** **LSE:RKH Rockhopper** **LSE:RR. Rolls Royce** **LSE:SAGA SAGA Plc** **LSE:SBRY Sainsbury** **LSE:SCLP Scancell** **LSE:SDY Speedyhire** **LSE:SFOR S4 Capital** **LSE:SMT Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust** **LSE:SPX Spirax** **LSE:SRP Serco** **LSE:STAR Star Energy** **LSE:TLW Tullow** **LSE:TRN The Trainline** **LSE:TSCO Tesco** **LSE:VOD Vodafone** **LSE:ZOO Zoo Digital** **
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Many thanks for taking the time to read this and good luck for today. Please feel free to mention us after something goes right!