Trends And Targets

#FTSE #Brent It’s unusual, in these confused days, to stagger up to a Friday with some optimism but despite negative news from so many sources, the FTSE is somehow managing to look positive. Perhaps it’s related to the price of Brent Crude as the black stuff looks capable also of some near term price gains where above 44.6 dollars, the immediate target, should potentially signal a cycle commencing toward the 46.8 dollar mark.

 

As for the FTSE, with the index managing to close Thursday around the 5980 level, the market closed at the highest level in 14 sessions, officially ticking the box for a “Higher High”, thanks to the all important market closure level being comfortably above any intra-day level since September 21st. From our perspective, this is quite a big deal and tends suggest the FTSE shall need some pretty negative news to derail a sense of hope in the days and week ahead.

Near term, things promise to become interesting if the UK index wanders above 6012 points. This calculates as capable of triggering a movement toward an initial 6044 points with secondary, if exceeded, working out at 6095 points. In fact, while we do not expect movement in a single day, longer term 6175 appears to be exerting an attraction for the days ahead. If feeling insanely brave, the tightest stop in this scenario looks like a dreadfully wide 5929 points!

 

Our reasoning for such a ridiculous stop loss level comes from the optics of the last week as 5929 has made an appearance twice as a day low. Below 5929 suggests the possibility of reversal to an initial 5893 points with secondary, if broken, calculating at 5859 points.

 

As the chart inset shows, Thursday was also the first time the FTSE has managed to close a session above the Blue downtrend which commenced, when everything started to go horribly wrong in February. It’s officially “fingers crossed” time

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:30:49PM	BRENT	43.59	42.15	41.835		42.55	43.59	43.725		42.8	Success
10:34:02PM	GOLD	1893.83	1879	1868		1890	1896	1902		1890
10:49:09PM	FTSE	6005.9	5968	5956.5		6000	6006	6025.5			‘cess
10:51:09PM	FRANCE	4925	4874	4859.5		4914	4930	4946.5		4906
10:53:44PM	GERMANY	13084	12996	12955.5		13050	13104	13172		13043	‘cess
10:55:37PM	US500	3454	3422	3409.5		3446	3456	3472		3423	‘cess
10:57:25PM	DOW	28499	28254	28154.5		28415	28570	28714.5		28370	‘cess
10:58:59PM	NASDAQ	11573	11502	11464.5		11580	11595	11676.5		11539	‘cess
11:00:48PM	JAPAN	23634	23570	23539		23642	23671	23697		23570	Success

8/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5978 points. Change of 0.54%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,506,090,091 a change of -9.79%

7/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5946 points. Change of -0.05%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,994,944,768 a change of 3.84%

6/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5949 points. Change of 0.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,810,400,259 a change of 20.66%

5/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5942 points. Change of 0.68%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,986,790,747 a change of -6.97%

2/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5902 points. Change of 0.39%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,285,372,497 a change of -12.92%

1/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5879 points. Change of 0.22%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,921,284,024 a change of -5.87%

30/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5866 points. Change of -0.53%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,228,309,512 a change of 10.67%

#SP500 #Japan We’re taking an interest in online retails, both as welcome relief from scanning pharma’s and due to a suspicion further lockdown behaviour shall again benefit retailers with strong internet presence. While we’ve never heard of Brown Group, their brands were familiar, thus qualifying for a hard look at the corporate share price. And for those interested, their website carries the usual disclaimers of a company being green and not using slave labour to destroy the planet… They’re probably even nice to traffic wardens!

 

At present, the share is trading around the 53p mark. If an “online retailer” dividend is coming, we shall be interested if it next manages to trade above just 60p as a recovery cycle to an initial 77p looks possible. We’re already a little puzzled at the share failing, thus far, to recover from the Covid-19 plunge in March when the price hit 10p. Many other online retails already have experienced correction from this pandemic drop and in the case of Brown, the share price needs above 68p to convince recovery is genuine.

In the event our 60p to 77p trigger comes to fruition, should the price manage above the 77p level, further movement to 119p calculates as probable in the longer term. Beyond this point, we shall need stir the tea leaves again, due to a rather murky reality from the bigger picture.

 

When the share price was moved down to the 10p level in March, it was taken below an “ultimate bottom” level of 12p. We’re a little uncomfortable with this and wonder if there’s an underlying fundamental issue which needs investigated before taking a position. Of course, perhaps we’re being hysterics on the issue as movements in mid-March across the wider market often felt like lunatics had taken over the asylum. Equally, there’s no doubt online retailers are reaping the reward of High St avoidance, so perhaps this is simply awaiting some positive sales figures being reported.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:16:24PM	BRENT	42.34
10:18:42PM	GOLD	1887.5
10:20:38PM	FTSE	5952									Success
10:22:38PM	FRANCE	4888									Success
10:28:08PM	GERMANY	12950									Success
10:29:54PM	US500	3416.52	3372	3350	3324	3409	3428	3443	3477	3393	Success
10:32:57PM	DOW	28306									Success
10:34:47PM	NASDAQ	11492									Success
10:50:24PM	JAPAN	23502	23329	23266.5	23188	23427	23502	23534.5	23643	23407	Success

7/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5946 points. Change of -0.05%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,994,944,768 a change of 3.84%

6/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5949 points. Change of 0.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,810,400,259 a change of 20.66%

5/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5942 points. Change of 0.68%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,986,790,747 a change of -6.97%

2/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5902 points. Change of 0.39%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,285,372,497 a change of -12.92%

1/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5879 points. Change of 0.22%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,921,284,024 a change of -5.87%

30/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5866 points. Change of -0.53%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,228,309,512 a change of 10.67%

29/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5897 points. Change of -0.51%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,724,132,311 a change of -0.94%

#FTSE #France We’re always a little cynical with airline prices and now, with Covid-19, doubly so. #Ryanair, a company we suspect would introduce credit card readers to release the oxygen masks in the event of cabin pressure loss, are proving fairly resilient since the March price reversal. So much so, we’re inclined to produce an optimistic scenario.

Visually it looks like share price movements above the 13 euro level (Ryanair is priced in EUR) should prove capable of a price lift to 14.5 initially. If bettered, our secondary target calculates at 15.8 and as the chart shows, there’s ample reason to suspect some hesitation around such a level, given historical movements. Only with price closure above the 15.8 level are things liable to become game changing for the share price thanks to some quite strong future potentials.

 

To be blunt, while Ryanairs policy of charging for “extras and add-ons” may be ridiculed, it’s equally probable their attitude shall make them one of the airlines to survive the change in circumstances the Pandemic has brought. Apparently Ryanair hoovered up an extra 2.5 billion during 2019 with their various scams to increase revenue from passengers!

If things intend go wrong, the share price needs descend below 10.75 to give an inkling of turbulence as this now permits travel down to an initial 9.5 euro. Should the share price find an excuse to close a session below this point, our secondary calculation comes in at 6.1 euro, the point below which we cannot calculate.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:47:39PM	BRENT	42.06									‘cess
9:51:21PM	GOLD	1921									‘cess
9:53:20PM	FTSE	5891	5883	5854.5	5815	5933	5933	5942.5	5963	5900	Shambles
9:55:01PM	FRANCE	4853	4846	4811	4773	4872	4877	4883.5	4896	4867	Success
9:56:33PM	GERMANY	12771									Success
9:59:13PM	US500	3343.22									‘cess
10:01:32PM	DOW	27670.2									‘cess
10:03:11PM	NASDAQ	11227									Shambles
10:05:23PM	JAPAN	23217

6/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5949 points. Change of 0.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,810,400,259 a change of 20.66%

5/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5942 points. Change of 0.68%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,986,790,747 a change of -6.97%

2/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5902 points. Change of 0.39%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,285,372,497 a change of -12.92%

1/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5879 points. Change of 0.22%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,921,284,024 a change of -5.87%

30/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5866 points. Change of -0.53%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,228,309,512 a change of 10.67%

29/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5897 points. Change of -0.51%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,724,132,311 a change of -0.94%

28/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5927 points. Change of 1.45%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,768,816,378 a change of 0.46%

#Gold #SP500 The recent set of financials from online fashionist, #Boohoo, tended confirm something everyone really knew. The vast majority of people don’t care about the working conditions of those who produce the end product. When it comes time to pay, the primary interest will always be cost, despite the working conditions associated with employees of Boohoo, Apple, Amazon or whoever.

Economically, it makes a sad type of sense. Quality manufacturing jobs moving to the cheapest source, along with the loss of quality pay. Suddenly the buying public find themselves only able to get minimum paid jobs, thus only able to afford cheaper products. The whole shebang becomes a “circle of life” thing and now, we note the Pope even has become involved, perceiving a lack of trickle down benefits to the wider population from corporate emphasis. While this is doubtless poor economic theory, there’s little doubt most folk don’t care about other peoples working conditions, as long as they don’t experience it themselves!

 

Boohoo, in experiencing a 51% jump in profit in the most recent six months, has seen their share price fail to do anything flamboyant. We suspect the word “yet” shall prove important as the share price is certainly showing some reasonable potentials. Visually, there’s a trigger level at the 400p level and we suspect movements above this point (presently trading around 360p) shall prove interesting as we’re able to calculate an initial ambition at 454p.

Such a movement is liable to prove key for the longer term, representing a new all time high and perhaps reflecting their balance sheet.

With future closure above 454p, things become clearer as we’re looking for 531p as a longer term secondary. The Big Picture against this share gives 626p as our maximum calculation for the share price. As a result, should Boohoo ever manage trade above this level, we shall need revisit and recalculate due to everything changing for its future potentials.

 

To justify a look at the price of their running shoes, Boohoo would now need trade below 270p as this would provide reasonable early warning of everything going wrong!

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:22:59PM	BRENT	41.56
10:27:02PM	GOLD	1913.7	1896	1886	1874	1905	1920	1925	1938	1901
10:34:22PM	FTSE	5956.55									Success
10:36:12PM	FRANCE	4890									‘cess
10:38:25PM	GERMANY	12878									‘cess
10:40:44PM	US500	3402.87	3355	3345	3323	3378	3412	3428.25	3445	3367	‘cess
10:43:32PM	DOW	28142									‘cess
10:45:31PM	NASDAQ	11490
10:49:19PM	JAPAN	23403									‘cess

5/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5942 points. Change of 0.68%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,986,790,747 a change of -6.97%

2/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5902 points. Change of 0.39%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,285,372,497 a change of -12.92%

1/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5879 points. Change of 0.22%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,921,284,024 a change of -5.87%

30/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5866 points. Change of -0.53%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,228,309,512 a change of 10.67%

29/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5897 points. Change of -0.51%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,724,132,311 a change of -0.94%

28/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5927 points. Change of 1.45%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,768,816,378 a change of 0.46%

25/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5842 points. Change of 0.34%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,747,164,651 a change of -0.48%

#Brent #Nasdaq It’s unusual to be starting a month, feeling like some hope is possible for banking shares. Obvious, the state Mr Trumps health is capable of knocking over the applecart for the markets but otherwise, the retail banks no longer look as vile as usual. In fact, #Lloyds – as hoped – appears to be bouncing just above our previous target drop level. Is it real?

 

At time of writing, Lloyds Bank share price is around the 27p level. We’ve allocated 29.6p as the potential trigger level for “proper” recovery commencing, so it’s not far away. Our thinking is pretty basic on this matter. Above 29.6p shall tend suggest bottom is “in” with the result further twitches upward should prove difficult to unwind, unless either the tone of company news or the efforts of politicians become involved. Or we could all catch Covid-19, in which case the fate of a banks share price will doubtless become less interesting!

If our reading of the tea leaves proves correct again, above 29.6p anytime soon should prove price recovery to an initial 33p with secondary, if exceeded, a more interesting 35.5p. We’ve allocates 35.5p with special powers, thanks to closure above this point launching the banks share price into a region with a hypnotic attraction coming from the 50p level eventually. We can, of course, calculate beyond such a price level but to retain a grasp of reality, we’d prefer running the numbers again as the path to such a target level, if achieved, is liable to provide some fairly concise cues for longer term price behaviour.

 

For the immediate future, we suspect we are in the same camp as the rest of the world. News of Mr Trumps health was delayed until the markets closed on Friday with the result, we’re a little concerned as to what the coming week holds. Should Lloyds share price experience reversal below 25.5p, this will give concerns as it once again implies the risk of a bottom at 22.3p. If broken, secondary is at 18p.

Hopefully optimism remains viable as, goodness knows, we all could do with something looking positive!

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
4:45:26PM	FTSE	5913
4:53:55PM	BRENT	39.21	38.82	38.62	37.52	39.9	41.06	41.565	42.48	39.95	Success
5:01:50PM	GOLD	1900.91									‘cess
5:03:54PM	FRANCE	4833									‘cess
5:06:03PM	GERMANY	12741									Success
5:30:38PM	NASDAQ	11272	11219	11129.5	10965	11369	11476	11545	11655	11290	Success
5:45:54PM	US500	3355.97									Success
5:47:53PM	DOW	27756.9
5:50:01PM	JAPAN	23181									Success

 

 

2/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5902 points. Change of 0.39%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,285,372,497 a change of -12.92%

1/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5879 points. Change of 0.22%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,921,284,024 a change of -5.87%

30/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5866 points. Change of -0.53%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,228,309,512 a change of 10.67%

29/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5897 points. Change of -0.51%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,724,132,311 a change of -0.94%

28/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5927 points. Change of 1.45%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,768,816,378 a change of 0.46%

25/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5842 points. Change of 0.34%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,747,164,651 a change of -0.48%

24/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5822 points. Change of -1.31%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,769,890,114 a change of 0.59%

#FTSE #WallSt The UK index is presently doing “a thing” we used to be keen on witnessing from Wall St. It’s important to remember most chart patterns are utter nonsense but chart behaviour is often something else, essentially creating a map of human behaviour. And unlike human behaviour, it sometimes makes sense too.

This dive into “fascinating” comes from a break of the market uptrend, since the Covid-19 drop in March. On Sept 20th, the UK index barged through the trend with similar aplomb to a Scottish MP, when faced with Covid-19 regulations (and common sense and common decency). By slicing below 5863 points, the FTSE entered territory where we’d normally be comfortable pointing out weakness next below 5800 points risks a reversal cycle to 5619, perhaps even 5478 points.

 

However, Wall St has been guilty of producing trend breaks which are followed up by very tentative recovery dance steps. When an index breaks a trend, then the market creeps up the trend line (circled in Red), in the case of the USA it generally means surprise recovery is coming, due to the market not actually experiencing a loss of confidence due to the trend break. Quite the opposite may be happening as an index constantly gaining in value may indicate the potential of sudden strengthening of confidence. While it’s rare for the UK to exhibit this sort of movement, it’s something we watch for against the American markets.

In the case of the UK, the scenario presently exists where the potential of surprise recovery to 6294 calculates as an initial target. Secondary works out at a longer term 6751 points. If taking this at face value and opting to open a speculative Long position, the market even offers 5800 points visually as the tightest stop loss level! It’s certainly an interesting scenario with a massive Risk/Reward ratio. We’re obviously nervous, thanks to the pandemic soup in which we swim, presently.

FTSE for FRIDAY The foregoing section, while giving the impression of optimism, cleverly avoided giving any confident clue as to actual market direction in the near term. Normal rules suggest we should anticipate reversals.

Weakness next below 5846 suggests the potential of reversals to an initial 5817 points with secondary, if broken, at 5772 points. If triggered, the tightest stop is at 5902 points.

Alternately, above 5902 points calculates with an initial tame 5920 points with secondary, if exceeded, calculating at 5957 points. Unfortunately, as we enter the final day of the week, we’ve no clear idea of what to expect in the near term.

Have a good weekend.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:50:06PM	BRENT	40.75	41.4	39.53		41.1	41.45	41.685		40.59	‘cess
10:53:12PM	GOLD	1906.39	1893	1887.5		1903	1913	1918		1902	‘cess
11:05:55PM	FTSE	5876	5847	5836.5		5887	5900	5936		5854
11:07:43PM	FRANCE	4821	4800	4776		4832	4871	4878		4826
11:09:34PM	GERMANY	12713	12669	12640		12754	12809	12835		12725
11:11:25PM	US500	3374	3360	3347.5		3388	3397	3403.5		3374
11:18:14PM	DOW	27829	27662	27583		27862	28081	28137.75		27898	Shambles
11:20:00PM	NASDAQ	11598	11447	11402.5		11528	11612	11635.5		11506	‘cess
11:21:40PM	JAPAN	23317	23200	23176		23313	23373	23434		23256

1/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5879 points. Change of 0.22%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,921,284,024 a change of -5.87%

30/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5866 points. Change of -0.53%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,228,309,512 a change of 10.67%

29/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5897 points. Change of -0.51%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,724,132,311 a change of -0.94%

28/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5927 points. Change of 1.45%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,768,816,378 a change of 0.46%

25/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5842 points. Change of 0.34%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,747,164,651 a change of -0.48%

24/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5822 points. Change of -1.31%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,769,890,114 a change of 0.59%

23/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5899 points. Change of 1.2%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,741,814,629 a change of -1.55%

#Brent #Gold There’s little doubt 2020 shall be remembered as “The Year When Everything Changed”. Attending a funeral in Scotland, the service restricted to 20 people, an intimidating honour guard of cars lining the final route, little contact between people, a friend was laid to rest. This, the new normal, only lacking the body delivered in an Amazon cardboard box to complete the picture.

It’s surprising how easy the transit to internet shopping has become, concepts of shopping lists forgotten as items are “added to baskets” when remembered and ideally, remembering to pay and complete the transaction too. There must be other folk who’ve guiltily explained that yes, I did remember to order that and yes, it’s still in my basket. Who needs toilet paper anyway?

 

Amazon’s share price has massively enjoyed considerable benefit from the changed habits. Surprisingly, eBay has not yet experienced such exuberance though, should eBay exceed the 62 dollar mark, the words “Go Long and Wait” shall not be far away! Unlike eBay, Amazon feel poised for further price gains anytime soon, thanks to movements during September.

Above 3,213 now looks capable of movement to an initial 3,502 and visually, some hesitation is expected at such a level, due to the price matching the highs at the start of September. With closure above 3,502, continued growth to 3,828 calculates as possible. At present, we cannot calculate above 3,828 with the result, should Amazon exceed such a level, it also enters a new world where everything changes for the price.

 

Obviously we can dust down an alternate scenario, if everything starts to go a little wrong. Weakness below 2,950 risks reversal to an initial 2,654 with secondary, if broken, at a bottom (hopefully) of 2,363 dollars. At present, we’re fairly enthusiastic at the prospect of 3,502 making an appearance.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:40:46PM	BRENT	42.04	41.18	40.685	39.53	41.79	42.5	42.725	43.36	41.53	Success
10:09:19PM	GOLD	1886.1	1881	1876	1867	1892	1903	1906.5	1915	1887	Shambles
10:12:46PM	FTSE	5850.54									Sorry
10:15:30PM	FRANCE	4804.5									Shambles
10:24:08PM	GERMANY	12731									‘cess
10:32:08PM	US500	3351.52									Success
10:34:26PM	DOW	27734									Success
10:37:06PM	NASDAQ	11385									Success
10:39:55PM	JAPAN	23256									Success

30/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5866 points. Change of -0.53%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,228,309,512 a change of 10.67%

29/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5897 points. Change of -0.51%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,724,132,311 a change of -0.94%

28/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5927 points. Change of 1.45%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,768,816,378 a change of 0.46%

25/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5842 points. Change of 0.34%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,747,164,651 a change of -0.48%

24/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5822 points. Change of -1.31%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,769,890,114 a change of 0.59%

23/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5899 points. Change of 1.2%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,741,814,629 a change of -1.55%

22/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5829 points. Change of 0.43%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,816,339,128 a change of -8.93%