Trends And Targets

#Brent #Germany We’ve received a few emails regarding Lekoils recent price movements. The AIM used to be notorious for the term “Pump & Dump”, something which mercifully does not happen too often nowadays. However, in the case of Lekoil, their start to the year with a boost to 11p is questionable.

Surprisingly though, the share price had exhibited a glass ceiling at 6.65p with the implication, movement above this level almost had to take the price to 11p. It’s possible the news regarding Quatar at the start of the year started the price moving in a logical uphill path, the target of which almost had to be met before anything else happened. Sometimes, software logic makes little sense – aside from the important detail the share indeed reached 11p, then experienced considerable hesitation.

Finally, the release of news the market perceived as negative has thoroughly stuffed the shares potentials, landing it in a region where our best hope is for a bounce at 0.3p eventually. Of course, there’s a vague chance this “Big Picture” bottom shall remain elusive.

The immediate situation suggests movement above 3.26p should bring recovery to an initial 3.48p. If exceeded, secondary calculates at 4.18p. In fact, unusually, if 4.18p is exceeded, we can give a 3rd target level up at 4.6p. Visually, none of these ambitions give any real hope for the future BUT, if the share were to trade beyond 4.67p, it becomes very possible the drop has been “overcooked” and some genuine recovery should take place.

For the present, we fear the price is now in the hands of “rumour vs reality” price movements but if it were ever to approach 0.3p, we’d hope for a real rebound. Importantly, we cannot calculate below such a level.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:48:46PM	BRENT	64.62	63.14	62.91	62.34	64.23	64.64	64.94	65.54	64
9:50:45PM	GOLD	1557.69
9:52:38PM	FTSE	7680.65									‘cess
9:55:02PM	FRANCE	6104.7									Success
9:57:30PM	GERMANY	13524.25	13465	13440.5	13402	13536	13540	13562.5	13630	13465	‘cess
9:59:26PM	US500	3323.62									‘cess
10:02:17PM	DOW	29312.6									‘cess
10:04:30PM	NASDAQ	9160.62									Success
10:19:45PM	JAPAN	24050

17/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7674 points. Change of 0.85%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,356,734,989 a change of 21.03%

16/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7609 points. Change of -0.43%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,252,079,163 a change of -22.59%

15/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7642 points. Change of 0.26%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,784,341,362 a change of 13.94%

14/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7622 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,954,176,416 a change of 15.24%

13/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7617 points. Change of 0.4%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,166,914,509 a change of -0.84%

10/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7587 points. Change of -0.14%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,210,689,793 a change of -8.73%

9/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7598 points. Change of 0.32%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,708,798,775 a change of 5.62%

#France #Nasdaq Since Dec 27th, the FTSE has experienced a 100 point range. This feeling of a “trapped market” hopefully has a chance to ease on Friday 17 Jan with the 3rd Friday intra-day auction at 10:15am. This exercise is designed to correct the value of the FTSE 100 index, clearing up any drift. Sometimes, it can also clear the log jam of a stalled market place.

We can hope! The fly in the ointment comes volumes traded through London being pretty low, thanks to the usual holiday malaise and this lack of trading tends ensure the FTSE Index value doesn’t drift too far from reality with little correction required. When this is considered, in conjunction with the lack of any real direction on the London index, we’re slightly lacking in confidence giving numbers today.

The market should be going up but isn’t. Equally, when reversals are triggered, the market is failing to drop.

The immediate situation for the FTSE calculates as follows. Movement now exceeding 7,651 is supposed to generate a loft to an initial 7,678 points, far from impressive. If exceeded, our secondary calculates at 7,729 points.

Alternately, if the FTSE now finds an excuse to stumble below 7,587 points, it’s supposed to experience some reversal to an initial 7,567 points with secondary, if broken, down at 7,539 points. This sort of nonsense keeps the UK market safely constrained within the straightjacket of a trapped market.

It’s almost like the FTSE is awaiting something important happening before showing its hand. As mentioned earlier, the underlying forces are of an upward expectation, the market needing below 7,225 points to force us to question our optimism for the future. Unless something punctures the 7,225 level, there’s a growing series of calculations suggesting the UK could even aspire to a high of 8,300 points sometime this year.

Near term, we’re far from confident with our expectations, suspecting Friday shall bring some reversals. This will even tie in with the index refusing to better BLUE on the chart, the downtrend since 2018.

 Have a good weekend.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:20:59PM	BRENT	64.19
10:22:43PM	GOLD	1553.08
10:27:23PM	FTSE	7624.23
10:30:49PM	FRANCE	6050.5	6018	6007.5	5991	6044	6052	6059	6072	6024
10:34:42PM	GERMANY	13469									Shambles
10:38:41PM	US500	3317.32									Success
10:41:33PM	DOW	29297									‘cess
10:47:00PM	NASDAQ	9126.12	9045	9026.5	8993	9082	9127	9135	9147	9060	‘cess
10:49:27PM	JAPAN	24087									Success

16/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7609 points. Change of -0.43%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,252,079,163 a change of -22.59%

15/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7642 points. Change of 0.26%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,784,341,362 a change of 13.94%

14/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7622 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,954,176,416 a change of 15.24%

13/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7617 points. Change of 0.4%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,166,914,509 a change of -0.84%

10/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7587 points. Change of -0.14%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,210,689,793 a change of -8.73%

9/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7598 points. Change of 0.32%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,708,798,775 a change of 5.62%

8/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7574 points. Change of 0.01%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,404,992,564 a change of 14%

#SP500 #DOW Despite a company name like a quaint pub, beside a slow river on a summer day, Gallifords share price moves are proving less than alluring. Our previous report (link) was loaded with concern as the share price risked a traumatic drop. Starting this year with reversal from 8 quid to 103p justified our concern, along with raising further concerns for the future.

Shareholders are probably pretty aggravated about both the drop and the method employed. The share price was gapped (manipulated) upward above the downtrend since 2017, mid way through last December. Generally, this sort of price movement gives considerable optimism for the longer term, indicating the market wants the price to head upward. Of course, in this instance, it all went wrong with the official Share Exchange Ratio & Listing Details announcement at the start of this year.

By any standards, price movements have become messy and the share needs above 173p to give hope of recovery up to an initial 211p. Above 211p and we shall need revisit the numbers.

The “bottom” of 103p achieved at the start of this year was, according to our calculations, pretty concise. GFRD cannot afford movement below 103p at present as we cannot calculate further drop targets. With a share price being moved down, exactly to the 103p level, we’ve some hope the price shall simply mess around until news flow from the company provides genuine force to drive the share.

As a result, weakness anytime now below 150 risks reversal to an initial 138p. If broken, secondary is at 120p and hopefully a bounce.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:11:01PM	BRENT	63.81
10:12:57PM	GOLD	1556.9									Success
10:15:11PM	FTSE	7631.68
10:17:25PM	FRANCE	6021									Shambles
10:19:07PM	GERMANY	13419.91
10:20:51PM	US500	3293.77	3274	3265	3254	3294	3298	3302.5	3312	3280	‘cess
10:24:34PM	DOW	29079	28835	28736.5	28604	28988	29135	29194.5	29337	28958
10:26:12PM	NASDAQ	9048.12
10:28:09PM	JAPAN	23955

 

15/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7642 points. Change of 0.26%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,784,341,362 a change of 13.94%

14/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7622 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,954,176,416 a change of 15.24%

13/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7617 points. Change of 0.4%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,166,914,509 a change of -0.84%

10/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7587 points. Change of -0.14%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,210,689,793 a change of -8.73%

9/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7598 points. Change of 0.32%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,708,798,775 a change of 5.62%

8/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7574 points. Change of 0.01%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,404,992,564 a change of 14%

7/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7573 points. Change of -0.03%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,741,303,337 a change of 0.44%

#FTSE #DOW Young grandchildren bring surprising gifts at Xmas. Perhaps the most memorable has been the gift of a rotten cold which refuses to go away. When kids leave the germ factory which is a school, why are they not decontaminated? The other surprise was the death of Coca Cola!

Despite laying in supplies for the childrens stay over the festive period, the news neither of the girls drink Coke justified raised eyebrows, not least due to the collection of 2 litre bottles awaiting their attention. For some reason, our grandchildren transited to the land of Pepsi, preferably straight from the fridge. Opting to taste the stuff provoked a real surprise, instantly transported back to childhood and questioning why anyone actually drinks Coke?

Chilled Pepsi, it transpires, is quite nice! But the jury is firmly out, it’s flavour proving slightly overwhelming when used as a mixer.

A resolution to review Coke’s share price, mildly curious whether the rest of the world has experienced a similar taste conversion, has finally been enacted and to our surprise, it appears Coke still has some fizz left in it. Currently, above 2,730 looks capable of a climb up to an initial 2,856p. If exceeded, our secondary is a useful looking 2,948p.

The reason we “like” 2,948p is closure above this point is liable to be game changing for the longer term, taking Coke’s share price into a region where a new all time high of 3,370 becomes very possible. Unfortunately, visually it appears 2,856 should prove perfectly capable of giving a stutter in the current rising cycle.

If Coke opts to have a Mentos moment, below 2,350 looks troubling as reversal to an initial 2,182 becomes expected. Secondary, when broken, is a bottom (hopefully) at 1,825p.

(Though if you want a real Mentos moment with coke, squirting lighter gas into a 3/4 full bottle provokes an energetic rocket. Do not try indoors or anywhere near anything which can be broken. Guess who got into trouble with grand-kids parents…)

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:37:56PM	BRENT	64.1
9:40:00PM	GOLD	1546.52									‘cess
9:52:29PM	FTSE	7636	7579	7553.5	7521	7633	7651	7724.5	7810	7586	Shambles
9:54:36PM	FRANCE	6040.5									‘cess
9:56:40PM	GERMANY	13467									‘cess
9:58:50PM	US500	3287.12									‘cess
10:11:42PM	DOW	28966	28765	28713	28601	28970	29002	29074	29177	28864	Shambles
10:14:28PM	NASDAQ	9049.87
10:16:15PM	JAPAN	23995									‘cess

 

 

14/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7622 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,954,176,416 a change of 15.24%

13/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7617 points. Change of 0.4%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,166,914,509 a change of -0.84%

10/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7587 points. Change of -0.14%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,210,689,793 a change of -8.73%

9/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7598 points. Change of 0.32%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,708,798,775 a change of 5.62%

8/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7574 points. Change of 0.01%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,404,992,564 a change of 14%

7/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7573 points. Change of -0.03%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,741,303,337 a change of 0.44%

6/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7575 points. Change of -100%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,720,635,792 a change of 0%

#Gold #Nasdaq As we count down to this years Formula 1 season (61 days), remembering we haven’t updated our thoughts on Aston Martin (sponsors of Red Bull Racing), gave sufficient excuse to scare ourselves silly with the shares price potentials.

Since the launch in 2018, Aston Martin’ share price has performed pretty dismally, sliding downhill from highs of 19 quid to lows below 4 quid. Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like the gloom has ended. Presently trading around the 460p mark, weakness now below 382p threatens further reversal to an initial 290p. If broken, secondary is a bottom at 170p and we cannot calculate below such a point.

Strange to report, for an age we’d been thinking this would bottom at the 4 pound level, eventually embracing our gullible nature with a mistaken belief it would probably hit 5 pounds. However, the share price opted to perform in accordance with the downward pressure since the launch, breaking 4 pounds on several occasions. We tend lack confidence when big picture targets are placed under pressure repeatedly, making us fear 170p risks taking its place on the podium.

However, there has been a pretty well defined downtrend and the share price now need exceed 570p to give a solid impression the rot has stopped. Above this level creates a scenario where miracle recovery to an initial 719 makes sense. If exceeded, our longer term secondary is at 860p.

For now, similar to Ferrari in F1, with AML’s share price we expect the worst. And hope for the best anyway!

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:43:25PM	BRENT	63.88									‘cess
9:50:18PM	GOLD	1548.31	1546	1539	1526	1556	1556	1558	1562	1546
9:55:11PM	FTSE	7624.71
10:25:26PM	FRANCE	6037.7
10:27:13PM	GERMANY	13476									‘cess
10:28:56PM	US500	3287.92
10:32:03PM	DOW	28897
10:34:54PM	NASDAQ	9074.12	8968	8936	8888	9011	9080	9101.5	9123	8986	‘cess
10:36:49PM	JAPAN	23945									‘cess

 

13/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7617 points. Change of 0.4%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,166,914,509 a change of -0.84%

10/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7587 points. Change of -0.14%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,210,689,793 a change of -8.73%

9/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7598 points. Change of 0.32%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,708,798,775 a change of 5.62%

8/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7574 points. Change of 0.01%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,404,992,564 a change of 14%

7/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7573 points. Change of -0.03%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,741,303,337 a change of 0.44%

6/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7575 points. Change of -100%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,720,635,792 a change of 0%

3/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7622 points. Change of 0%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,912,167,844 a change of 0%

#Brent #DAX When the US President, Mr Trump, recently moaned about the poor quality of modern toilet flushes, there was a definite “hold on a minute” in-house as we’d made an identical comment, one alas ignored by the worlds media. It was June last year (link) and an article about Kingfisher (aka B&Q), along with the reasons their share price was going to flush itself down to 184p.

We were correct about modern toilets and their illusory water savings and oh, yes, we were also correct about 184p as a rebound level.

Importantly, our 184p drop ambition was not breached, this giving the hope the current (somewhat moderate) rebound shall prove to have some integrity. The immediate situation suggests above 230p should now aim for an initial 240p with secondary, if bettered, calculating at a longer term 267p. Visually, it appears any rise risks foundering at the 267p as there’s little doubt a glass ceiling awaits at such a level.

That’s about the end of any positive spin on this story as we’re nervous at the slavish attention being paid to the downtrend since 2018. It has created the situation, where weakness now below the trend (208 presently) signals the prospect of reversal to an initial 197p with secondary, when broken, down at 175p. The secondary level scares us more than a modern WC as it takes the price into a region with 141p as “bottom”.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
7:52:28PM	BRENT	64.77	64.51	64.08	63.13	65.76	65.76	66.145	66.75	64.57
7:54:52PM	GOLD	1562.49
8:08:11PM	FTSE	7570.69									Shambles
8:29:00PM	FRANCE	6017
9:48:39PM	GERMANY	13447.65	13430	13413	13379	13519	13555	13628	13688	13433
10:20:41PM	US500	3263.42									Shambles
10:23:09PM	DOW	28806									‘cess
10:35:22PM	NASDAQ	8962.12									‘cess
10:37:34PM	JAPAN	23684									‘cess

 

10/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7587 points. Change of -0.14%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,210,689,793 a change of -8.73%

9/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7598 points. Change of 0.32%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,708,798,775 a change of 5.62%

8/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7574 points. Change of 0.01%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,404,992,564 a change of 14%

7/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7573 points. Change of -0.03%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,741,303,337 a change of 0.44%

6/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7575 points. Change of -0.62%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,720,635,792 a change of 20.67%

3/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7622 points. Change of -100%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,912,167,844 a change of 0%

30/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7587 points. Change of 0%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,213,676,764 a change of 0%

#FTSE #DOW #GOLD By any standards, this has been a strange week. A combination of the markets, still not approaching decent trading volumes, along with this weeks “Iran” headlines, gave a media impression the markets faces a meltdown. Quite the converse has happened. The FTSE wants to reach 7,850 allegedly!

However, it’s worth remembering (as if anyone could forget) this is January, traditionally a month packed full of contrary behaviour. A month, topped off with The World Economic Forum (aka Ski Trip) in Davos which often witnesses a dip in world markets prior to a surprise surge around the Davos event and all sorts of exhuberance during China’s week long New Year holiday. What has surprised (so far), events in Iran appeared to be providing a reasonable excuse for market reversal prior to the month end and Davos. Instead, we’ve seen a series of pretty average days this week, followed by a Thursday which almost felt exuberant at times.

So, what’s ahead for Friday?

Below 7,591 looks fairly troubling, apparently capable of reversal to an initial 7,568 points. If broken, secondary calculates at 7,557 points and this gets troubling, taking the UK index into a region where very little excuse is needed to crash it down to the 7,500 level. If triggered, tightest stop is at 7,620 points.

The alternate scenario looks at the possibility of London trading above 7,634 points. Such a scenario apparently expects some growth to an initial 7,661 points. If exceeded, secondary on the immediate cycle calculates at 7,682 points. Visually, the initial target makes sense but the jury is out on the secondary, despite the longer term attraction from 7,850.

Despite this being the first complete week of 2020, market volumes are still rather low. Hopefully next week witnesses some real flamboyance on the market.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:03:49PM	BRENT	65.13	64.3	63.67		65.78	66.15	66.545		64.96
10:06:07PM	GOLD	1552.81	1544	1539		1559	1561	1565		1551	‘cess
10:08:04PM	FTSE	7618.39	7566	7553.5		7618	7627	7635		7566
10:10:12PM	FRANCE	6050	6006	5980.5		6035	6071	6078		6011
10:21:58PM	GERMANY	13510.75	13382	13362.5		13514	13520	13536		13450	‘cess
10:25:21PM	US500	3275.02	3261	3258.5		3274	3277	3288		3255	‘cess
10:32:06PM	DOW	28961	28820	28755.5		28970	28985	29026		28832	Success
10:33:51PM	NASDAQ	8994.62	8914	8900		8977	9005	9026.75		8914	Success
10:36:48PM	JAPAN	23774	23632	23600.5		23786	23786	23809		23660	‘cess

 

9/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7598 points. Change of 0.32%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,708,798,775 a change of 5.62%

8/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7574 points. Change of 0.01%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,404,992,564 a change of 14%

7/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7573 points. Change of -0.03%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,741,303,337 a change of 0.44%

6/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7575 points. Change of -0.62%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,720,635,792 a change of 20.67%

3/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7622 points. Change of -100%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,912,167,844 a change of 0%

30/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7587 points. Change of 0%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,213,676,764 a change of 0%