COIN:BTCUSD, ETHUSD, XRPGBP #CAC40 #Nikkei Despite UK regulator action on crypto currency trading, there appears plenty who still trade the products, using slightly offshore platforms. On Tues 23th Feb, with considerable horror, traders watched Bitcoin losing $13,000, Ethereum dumping $600 and XRP tossing 11p in the bin! Perhaps percentage terms shall prove more relatable, Bitcoin lost 22%, Ethereum lost 29% and Ripple lost 26%.

It is probably safe to say it was not the finest session for many traders. For legendary Bitcoin miners, it was a nasty cave in and we’re not certain the tragedy is over yet.

But then again, it might be!

With Bitcoin, the immediate cycle which led to $57,000US had been presenting the threat of reversal to $43,250 but when the price imploded, the value “only” shrunk to $44,888. Perhaps this is an implication of strength as our bottom number was not troubled. Using the same logic, Ethereum has presented the potential of $1300 but on the day, it bounced from $1367. Again, an implication of strength. Finally, XRP hit a low of 0.2950 rather than bother our calculation of 0.27250.

We’ve a (sometimes dodgy) logic which tells us to be cynical, if price drops fail to breach target on the day of the initial correction. Even though our target level may be broken in future days, we’re cautious advocating flat panic in the event prices bounce just above targets. In the case of each of the three crypto cons, we are loathe to suggest they present an immediate short opportunity.

 

Needless to say, we can give some potentials for the insanely brave.

With Bitcoin, below $43,000 now permits reversal to around £37k with secondary, if broken, at a bottom of $31k. The visuals even make sense. Alternately, we can present a scenario with a trigger level at $51k which calculates with the potential of $54.5 with secondary, if exceeded, $60k and yet another high.

For Ethereum, below $1300 carries the potential of a visit to $1150 and hopefully a bounce. If broken, our secondary is pretty vile at a bottom around $570. The other side of the coin, if we take a positive viewpoint, allows for strength above $1780 to now bring recovery to £1930 with secondary, if exceeded, at $2271, an all time high.

Finally, Ripple XRP. Weakness next below the 0.27 level shall prove troublesome, allowing an initial 0.22 with secondary, if broken, down at 0.14. We cannot calculate below such a level. On a happier note, it need only exceed 0.47 to suggest an initial ambition of 0.60 with secondary, if bettered, a significant 0.74.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:50:40PM	BRENT	64.25									Success
10:53:09PM	GOLD	1806.21
10:54:51PM	FTSE	6627.34									‘cess
10:57:09PM	FRANCE	5783	5718	5691.5	5657	5761	5788	5793.5	5816	5766	‘cess
10:59:11PM	GERMANY	13881.91									Success
11:05:05PM	US500	3879									Success
11:07:53PM	DOW	31539
11:10:57PM	NASDAQ	13181									Success
11:13:31PM	JAPAN	29997	29920	29788.5	29565	30100	30100	30155.5	30325	29918	Success

23/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6625 points. Change of 0.2%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,400,811,010 a change of 24.64%

22/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6612 points. Change of -0.18%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,739,937,565 a change of 0.76%

19/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6624 points. Change of 0.11%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,689,261,003 a change of 15.24%

18/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6617 points. Change of -1.39%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,804,629,617 a change of -22.73%

17/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6710 points. Change of -0.56%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,511,824,336 a change of 35.06%

16/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6748 points. Change of -0.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,561,960,634 a change of -0.72%

15/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6756 points. Change of 2.53%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,602,276,757 a change of 0.88%

#Gold #SP500 Following a year when we’ve all enjoyed & endured the experience of online shopping, Sainsbury came top in a Which Report for online service whereas Aldi topped the list in the ‘value for money’ category. Needless to say, Aldi also flopped around a bit with customers tending ridicule their shop layout. But their prices were good, if you could find the products! Sainsbury, a presence since 1869 appear to have embraced this new fangled online experience rather more successfully than rivals and we’d hope to see this success mirrored in their share price.

 

So far, unfortunately, this seems not to be the case. Trading around 226p at time of writing, there’s a pretty firm suspicion near term weakness below just 224p shall promote reversals to an initial 211p. We’d hope for a bounce should 211p make itself known but warn, should such a price level break, we’d then hope for a rebound before our secondary of 188p.

However, perhaps the accolade suggesting Sainsbury, after 152 years, actually know what they’re doing will provide an effect on price movements but realistically at present, we need the share price above 250p to suggest the possibility of movement to an initial 267p with secondary, if exceeded, calculating at a visibly sane 300p eventually. We use the term “visibly sane” due to the high prior to the 2019 drop showing itself as an excellent level to produce a glass ceiling eventually.

Jubilee Metals (LSE:JLP) Following the stock market crash of 2009, there was little doubt Jubilee Metals share price was enthusiastically talked up (ramped) by certain folk in internet chat rooms and as always with this sort of nonsense, the gains eventually vanished, the share price finding a floor at the 1p level. For the last 5 years, the price has enacted spasmodic twitches but now, it feels like something genuine may be happening. This year, the price has outperformed all near term logic and there’s a strong suggestion gains next above 17p should continue growth toward an amazing 24p.

If exceeded, our longer term secondary calculates at 32p and as with our thoughts on Sainsbury above, this presents the sort of level where some hesitation can be expected. Obviously, there’s going to be a bunch of folk trapped since the 32p level appeared ten years ago and a lot of them will Bail At Break Even, bringing selling pressure. Additionally, another bunch of folk will glance at the chart and see the prior highs, assuming a problem exists at such a price level.

We’re aware we’re speculating on the price doubling from current, so perhaps worth doing some research. It needs fall below 10p to give early warning of panic.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:33:56PM	BRENT	65.02									Success
10:36:08PM	GOLD	1810	1788	1782	1771	1803	1812	1819	1829	1792	‘cess
10:37:55PM	FTSE	6595.36									‘cess
10:40:40PM	FRANCE	5748									‘cess
10:43:06PM	GERMANY	13924									‘cess
10:52:24PM	US500	3879.32	3863	3858	3824	3883	3902	3906.5	3921	3891	Success
10:54:11PM	DOW	31561									Success
10:56:51PM	NASDAQ	13228									Success
10:59:06PM	JAPAN	29986									‘cess

22/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6612 points. Change of -0.18%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,739,937,565 a change of 0.76%

19/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6624 points. Change of 0.11%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,689,261,003 a change of 15.24%

18/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6617 points. Change of -1.39%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,804,629,617 a change of -22.73%

17/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6710 points. Change of -0.56%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,511,824,336 a change of 35.06%

16/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6748 points. Change of -0.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,561,960,634 a change of -0.72%

15/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6756 points. Change of 2.53%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,602,276,757 a change of 0.88%

12/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6589 points. Change of 0.93%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,553,303,054 a change of 2.03%

#BrentCrude #DAX TV’s Jeremy Clarkson keeps stealing my Sunday evenings! Our preference is analysing the markets but the exception to the rule used to be sacrosanct, watching Clarkson & “Top Gear” on Sunday evening, delaying prep-work for the following weeks trading. This year, the guy has been doing it again, presenting “Millionaire” and making it watchable again. Like most folk, arrogance ensures the cheap questions are ignored in favour of making a cuppa but tonight, the very first question stopped me in my tracks. It literally never occurred knowing the layers of a cake could be important, especially as someone who has never eaten one. A peculiar allergy ensures I cannot even be in the same room when baking is going on.

With spiteful joy she’s waited years for, the ‘other half’ watched my struggle with choices and logic, failing to give a correct answer before the contestant. As a result, I was mentally sent home without even £100…

 

It’s funny how the glaringly obvious can sometimes trip us all up. We mentioned in our last report, should Lloyds reach 26p, in our opinion it would provide an excellent point at which to catch a bounce. We also complained at the speed of movements and wondered if there was any chance of the price ever getting there. This now appears extremely unlikely, so for those holding their breath, we’d suggest (almost) forgetting the potential.

Lloyds share price has finally exceeded the Blue downtrend, still not bursting with optimism, but a severe drop looks rather less likely.

Instead, the share has once again tangled with our 38p trigger level, again forcing us to wonder is happier times are ahead.

The arguments are starting to pile up; fewer Covid mortalities, reduced infection rates, lots of speculation regarding easing Lockdowns, school return dates mentioned. Thus far, the added benefit of vaccines give a lot of hope for a return to something approaching normality. We wonder if ‘Vaccine Passports’ shall become the norm in the hospitality industry in the year ahead, despite the Government rejecting the idea?

 

For Lloyds, if we regard all this as “glaringly obvious”, an improvement in their share price (almost) must happen and visually above 40p now looks key. In such an event, price recovery toward an initial 45p is now expected with secondary, if exceeded, at 50p. We can calculate the potential of 55p as a third level target, suspecting this may prove an issue. Prior to everything hitting the Covid fan in February 2020, there was some sort of issue going on between 55 & 60p, making us strongly suspect a Big Picture glass ceiling awaits, should such a level make itself known.

If everything intends go cake shaped for Lloyds, the share price now needs close below 36p to justify panic.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:56:05PM	BRENT	62.17	61.55	61.16	60.44	62.98	63.32	63.725	64.45	62	‘cess
9:57:52PM	GOLD	1784.94
10:10:59PM	FTSE	6601
10:13:14PM	FRANCE	5764									‘cess
10:15:09PM	GERMANY	13945
10:16:51PM	US500	3901.27	3893	3881.5	3876	3922	3934	3949	3971	3904
10:19:28PM	DOW	31485									Shambles
10:21:58PM	NASDAQ	13578
10:24:42PM	JAPAN	30161

19/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6624 points. Change of 0.11%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,689,261,003 a change of 15.24%

18/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6617 points. Change of -1.39%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,804,629,617 a change of -22.73%

17/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6710 points. Change of -0.56%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,511,824,336 a change of 35.06%

16/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6748 points. Change of -0.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,561,960,634 a change of -0.72%

15/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6756 points. Change of 2.53%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,602,276,757 a change of 0.88%

12/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6589 points. Change of 0.93%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,553,303,054 a change of 2.03%

11/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6528 points. Change of 0.06%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,442,915,422 a change of -20.73%

It’s always a bit of a giggle, reading the reasons given across the media for a move by the #FTSE. For instance, Thursday was quite traumatic, the 130 point variance on the day blamed on; Oil Prices, US Jobless claims, Barclays profits, UK inflation, and the favourite laugh, “Snow in Texas”. Thankfully, the headline from The Evening Standard failed to make it into the text of the article where several hundred words cleverly concealed the writer didn’t really have a clue why the market was down.

This sort of thing occurs all the time as it’s often impossible to point to a specific thing and apportion blame. Unlike with Wireless Networks!

 

It’s maybe the case Wireless Networking is designed to only work in modern properties with thin walls made out of toilet paper tubes. With fibre broadband and the latest router, mobile phones and tablets appear to work fairly well but proper computers and laptops (in our building) are rubbish. A network signal will be fine for 2 or 3 hours, then suddenly all the numbers freeze on screen with multiple pop ups assuring an attempt is being made to reconnect. Invariably, only restarting the computer or notebook restored contact with the wireless router. As this issue occurs with multiple computers and multiple routers, it was time to call a halt.

Todays delivery parcels contained network cabling as the time has come to call a halt to Wireless. We’re about to revisit the 1990’s with every room fitted out with plug-in network points, while permitting mobiles to continue to access Wireless. Amusingly, texting a chum (he’s senior IT in a corporate) to tell of the change of mood, he admitted he’d made a similar decision in 2020, telling staff who were working from home to use old fashioned network cables, if possible, to link to their domestic Wireless routers. Video conferences became less hesitant, immediately.

This has obviously absolutely nothing to do with the FTSE reversal from 6,721 to a day low of 6591 but it’s easy to understand the level of frustration, when something goes wrong and you’ve no idea what to blame it on.

 

Closing Thursday at 6,608 points, the index need only slip below 6,590 to enter a further reversal cycle to an initial 6,562 with secondary, if broken, at a bottom (hopefully) of 6,494 points. At this stage, those terrified of mumbo jumbo should leave the room.

At the start of February, the FTSE effectively flatlined for 9 boring sessions (circled). The reasons for this, we suspect, was fear permeating from US Earnings season reporting a steady stream of rotten financial results for 2020. We’d been expecting this but we’d also been expecting the markets to crash. The invisible crash is being avoided, due to many companies announcing a return to dividends along with ambitious plans for 2021 to balance the hammering from Lockdown(s). Unfortunately, we have a ‘charty’ issue and it relates to the circled area on the chart.

With share prices, when we see this sort of circled Glass Floor form following a trend break, we tend anticipate some real reversals ahead. It’s rare we are disappointed with such expectations and it’s just a matter of patience usually. In this instance, we’re more than a little curious as to whether the FTSE 100 shall perform in similar fashion to share prices.

It this logic proves correct, we calculate below 6,494 looks capable of a cycle to 6,025 and hopefully “bottom”.

 

As always, there’s a slight ‘however’, thanks to the FTSE previously showing signs of strength. When the UK FTSE reached up to 6,800 the other day, any conventional logic demanded it enjoy a continued cycle to 7,010 points next with secondary, if bettered, calculating at 7,320 points. It begs the question, is the FTSE just mucking around while awaiting to see if Covid-19 vaccines promote a zombie plague?

Very near term, an early measure of market strength looks possible if the index betters 6,622 points as this is supposed to generate an initial 6,642 points. If exceeded, the first box of “strength” is ticked with secondary working out at 6,688 points, potentially even 6,763 presumably sometime next week and challenging again the level of the previous trend break.

Have a good weekend.  Only 37 days until the next Formula 1 race!

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:10:23PM	BRENT	63.01	62.62	62.105	subscribe	64.27	64.82	65.11		63.69	Shambles
10:12:59PM	GOLD	1776.13	1767	1761.5	for	1787	1790	1795.5		1777
10:24:49PM	FTSE	6623.92	6588	6581	more	6680	6707	6726		6642	Success
10:27:23PM	FRANCE	5742	5717	5698		5762	5779	5785.5		5740	Success
10:29:44PM	GERMANY	13922.32	13879	13844.5		13943	13975	14017.5		13910
10:39:20PM	US500	3914.02	3907	3899.25		3928	3939	3950.5		3917	‘cess
10:42:10PM	DOW	31510	31444	31294		31552	31622	31676.5		31430	Success
10:44:57PM	NASDAQ	13640	13472	13446		13625	13705	13757		13575	‘cess
10:47:25PM	JAPAN	30118	29870	29863		30100	30155	30237		29972	‘cess

18/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6617 points. Change of -1.39%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,804,629,617 a change of -22.73%

17/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6710 points. Change of -0.56%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,511,824,336 a change of 35.06%

16/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6748 points. Change of -0.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,561,960,634 a change of -0.72%

15/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6756 points. Change of 2.53%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,602,276,757 a change of 0.88%

12/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6589 points. Change of 0.93%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,553,303,054 a change of 2.03%

11/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6528 points. Change of 0.06%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,442,915,422 a change of -20.73%

10/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6524 points. Change of -0.11%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,866,229,755 a change of 17.93%

#Nasdaq #Japan

A flurry of emails, asking our opinion be updated, actually reminded us we’d reviewed this lot last year (link). Genedrive certainly experienced a confused 8 months, successfully hitting our drop targets, then bouncing and (so far) hitting our initial upward target. Sometimes, we think the tea leaves were stirred with too much vigour and the price needs another hard look.

 

Listed on the UK AIM market in 2007 and originally named Epistem, Genedrive, a medical testing and analytical company are certainly not “new kids on the block”, jumping on a Covid-19 bandwagon. Their activities appear truly international with a share price which once graced nearly 6 quid. It has also fallen as far as 8p, leaving a lot of room for movement in every direction. Even the last year has seen the price vary from 300p down to 38p while the company swims in the fast waters of pandemic speculation.

We’re starting to suspect an attempt is coming to break free from our growth target level of 150p. While our report last year suggested a secondary of 171p, we should now rework the numbers as there’s every chance the 171p level shall be ignored.

Gains now exceeding 164p now calculate with a potential of movement to an initial 197p with our longer term secondary, if bettered, working out at 232p. Unfortunately, this could easily become 261p, thanks to the circled gap from January this year confusing things a little. One problem we have with manipulation gaps is fairly obvious. If there are no numbers, how the heck can we analyse them!

The target level of 261p is fascinating, given the convergence with the Blue downtrend which dates back to 2013, certainly justifying a reason for a pause in any rising cycle.

 

For it all to risk going horribly wrong, the share price needs reverse below 126p to give the first indication of bad test results coming. Weakness such as this risks triggering reversal to 95p with secondary, if broken, at a bottom of 56p and hopefully yet another bounce.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:21:06PM	BRENT	64.28									Success
10:33:58PM	GOLD	1776.51									‘cess
10:35:58PM	FTSE	6719									‘cess
10:46:03PM	FRANCE	5781.7									‘cess
10:49:18PM	GERMANY	13950.89									Success
10:51:10PM	US500	3931									Success
10:53:21PM	DOW	31630									‘cess
10:55:49PM	NASDAQ	13707	13592	13526	13400	13693	13785	13870	13978	13685	Success
10:57:48PM	JAPAN	30354	30144	30089	29877	30344	30438	30532.5	30662	30301	Success

17/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6710 points. Change of -0.56%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,511,824,336 a change of 35.06%

16/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6748 points. Change of -0.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,561,960,634 a change of -0.72%

15/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6756 points. Change of 2.53%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,602,276,757 a change of 0.88%

12/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6589 points. Change of 0.93%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,553,303,054 a change of 2.03%

11/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6528 points. Change of 0.06%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,442,915,422 a change of -20.73%

10/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6524 points. Change of -0.11%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,866,229,755 a change of 17.93%

9/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6531 points. Change of 0.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,822,084,195 a change of 11.88%

#FTSE #FRANCE Everything is now well in the world. Glencore, reinstating their dividend despite a $1.9bn loss, now enjoy a share price where we find it easy to calculate the price more than doubling in the longer term. Obviously, there are one or two minor hurdles to consider first but we suspect, thanks to the March 2020 Covid-19 drop, the stock markets are going to find many shares in a similar position. Essentially, once the strength of downward volatility is reversed, any bounce is liable to be flamboyant.

To illustrate, imagine dropping a ball and finding it bounces higher than the level it dropped from. Physics says this is impossible, assuming no additional energy is given to the ball but as traders know, share prices rarely follow the rules of physics. Or even common sense! But from a visual perspective, record losses are being ignored by the market and instead, the prospect of a dividend now makes Glencore an exciting share for the future.

 

To dwell on the chart, the immediate scenario suggests movement above 295p should next impart sufficient bounce for the share price to reach 408p. Visually, the 4 quid level makes a lot of sense and without a doubt, a glass ceiling since 2013 awaits at such a point. There’s also the problem of the downtrend since 2011, presently enacting a barrier around the 357p level. Amazingly, this is also extremely capable of matching the Feb 2020 Pre-Covid high level of 345p, giving two distinct excuses for some hesitation on the way up. Undoubtedly, there will be those trapped at the 345p level, potentially since 2018. Bailing at Break Even (BABE) is a very real event, one perfectly capable of provoking price hesitation. The Blue downtrend since 2011 is another and should both events occur at the same time, an assumption will grow of the downtrend being a “real” barrier to price growth.

Who knows, it make even be right!

 

We suspect this shall not prove to be the case, instead tending to speculate the 408p level is liable to provide sufficient long term excuse for hesitation. Goodness knows how long the scenario will take to unfold but from a Big Picture perspective, it makes perfect sense.

Only with closure above 408p shall we dare become breathless with anticipation, thanks to the Big Picture indicating an all time high of 731p becomes possible.

At time of writing, this FTSE 100 component is trading at 288p. The price needs below 210p to spoil our optimism.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:11:20PM	BRENT	63.14
10:13:01PM	GOLD	1794.68									Success
10:16:34PM	FTSE	6748.77	6731	6706.5	6676	6774	6799	6813	6862	6733
10:18:10PM	FRANCE	5784.5	5766	5760.5	5748	5794	5798	5808	5822	5776
10:20:58PM	GERMANY	14054.26									‘cess
10:38:27PM	US500	3932									Success
10:40:48PM	DOW	31545									‘cess
10:42:20PM	NASDAQ	13761
10:44:08PM	JAPAN	30439									Success

 

16/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6748 points. Change of -0.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,561,960,634 a change of -0.72%

15/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6756 points. Change of 2.53%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,602,276,757 a change of 0.88%

12/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6589 points. Change of 0.93%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,553,303,054 a change of 2.03%

11/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6528 points. Change of 0.06%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,442,915,422 a change of -20.73%

10/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6524 points. Change of -0.11%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,866,229,755 a change of 17.93%

9/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6531 points. Change of 0.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,822,084,195 a change of 11.88%

8/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6523 points. Change of 0.43%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,203,801,333 a change of -25.46%

We reviewed this pairing at the start of January, expressing some optimism for Sterling against the US Dollar. To our surprise, GBPUSD and the FTSE both opted to start this week outperforming themselves and as always, the blame was laid on Covid-19. The thinking, apparently, is fairly simple. The more people vaccinated, the faster economic recovery should be as Lockdown restrictions are eased. Airline stocks will fly again, cruise lines will float off into the sunset, oil prices will bubble up, and the hospitality trade shall re-open.

The big question, one which shall consume the media, remains unanswered, ‘Will our vaccination passports sport blue or red covers?’ Maybe the public shall be required to exhibit a tattoo on  their forehead…

 

An important detail, or perhaps an admission of guilt, comes from the UK’s economic performance and the countries near 10% fall in GDP in 2020, the worst performance amongst the G7 group of wealthy nations. Despite this, Sterling is getting strong and the FTSE is starting to show early signs of proper recovery. We’d been expecting a crash but repeated profit warnings are “only” generating falls in share price around 6% rather than the traditional 20+%. Our thinking had supported a tsunami of share price drops forcing the FTSE into sharp reversal. This has not happened (so far), due to an outpouring of optimism due to vaccines administered and infection numbers falling. From reading international media, one could almost be convinced we’re at the onset of strong bull market conditions!

 

Will the FTSE head for 6,900+ and will GBPUSD demolish 1.5490? We’ll deal with the FTSE later this week but there remains some excuse for optimism with the currency pairing.

Presently trading around 1.390, the relationship needs exceed 1.392 to suggest near term traffic toward 1.406. We anticipate some stutters around such a level, if only due to the relatively huge jump possible to our secondary calculation. Longer term, above 1.406 works out with a target level of 1.4760, matching the high before the Brexit vote trashed the value of Sterling. Experience tends to highlight when a modest initial target appears, it’s almost as if the markets demand some volatility before discovering sufficient strength to reach a more distant secondary target.

For it all to go wrong for Sterling, the relationship needs founder below 1.320 to justify early concern.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:24:00PM	BRENT	62.97
10:26:12PM	GOLD	1819.14	1816	1808.5	1801	1824	1827	1829.5	1834	1816
10:29:58PM	FTSE	6765.08									Success
10:32:13PM	FRANCE	5786									Success
10:34:08PM	GERMANY	14120.11									‘cess
10:36:58PM	US500	3953.95
10:39:00PM	DOW	31653	31521	31491.5	31427	31609	31685	31701.5	31860	31590	Success
10:39:33PM	NASDAQ	Asleep	for	President	Day
10:43:35PM	JAPAN	30235									Success

15/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6756 points. Change of 2.53%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,602,276,757 a change of 0.88%

12/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6589 points. Change of 0.93%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,553,303,054 a change of 2.03%

11/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6528 points. Change of 0.06%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,442,915,422 a change of -20.73%

10/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6524 points. Change of -0.11%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,866,229,755 a change of 17.93%

9/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6531 points. Change of 0.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,822,084,195 a change of 11.88%

8/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6523 points. Change of 0.43%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,203,801,333 a change of -25.46%

5/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6495 points. Change of -0.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,981,544,293 a change of 30.51%