Author: T&T Staff

Here’s the link https://www.trendsandtargets.com/index.php/2020/07/23/gold-and-ftse-for-friday-24-07-2020/

#FTSE #DOW It was a surprise to discover, in addition to oil wealth, Saudi Arabia may also enjoy reserves of Gold, Silver, Copper, and Zinc. Kefi Minerals, mainly focused on Ethiopian reserves, jumped across the Red Sea in 2019 to explore a few locations in Saudi. What really caught our eye was their baseline cost around $900 per ounce, on a day when GOLD finally exceeded the $2,000 benchmark!

 

Kefi share price, trading around 1.8p at time of writing, is starting to show some reasonable potentials. In the event of the price next exceeding 1.88p, we’re looking for price recovery to an initial 2.51p with secondary, if exceeded, at 3.17p. Either one of these numbers represents a surprising gain from the current share level. Historically, the adjust price has traded substantially higher than currently and the visuals suggest CLOSURE above 4p shall be regarded as game changing for the longer term. We mention this as, should 3.17 somehow be exceeded, we can calculate a third target level of 4.1p…

 

For it all to go horribly wrong, the price needs slip below 1p, retreating below the level of the Blue downtrend since 2016. We feel sufficient early warning shall be given, if any excuse is discovered to take the share below 1.5 as this threatens an initial 1.2 with secondary, if broken, down at 0.98p and real trouble.

It’s an interesting share and doubtless worth some investigation.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:30:19PM	BRENT	44.46									‘cess
10:33:08PM	GOLD	2019.97									Success
10:44:52PM	FTSE	6045.46	5982	5963	5924	6040	6063	6133	6229	6013	Shambles
10:46:44PM	FRANCE	4892.2
10:54:06PM	GERMANY	12620									Shambles
10:55:32PM	US500	3306.57									‘cess
10:58:38PM	DOW	26858	26546	26468.5	26338	26659	26860	26965	27057	26670	‘cess
11:00:42PM	NASDAQ	11090
11:03:04PM	JAPAN	22501									‘cess

 

4/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6036 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,055,051,224 a change of 18.31%

3/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6032 points. Change of 2.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,272,722,908 a change of -22.49%

31/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 5897 points. Change of -1.54%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,512,609,995 a change of 17.63%

30/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 5989 points. Change of -2.32%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,686,446,061 a change of 8.2%

29/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6131 points. Change of 0.03%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,331,168,852 a change of 8.86%

28/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6129 points. Change of 0.41%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,978,793,130 a change of -6.88%

27/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6104 points. Change of -0.31%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,272,805,133 a change of 6.51%

#Gold #DOW We were surprised to receive some email questions regarding #Cineworld share price, essentially harbouring private suspicions Cinema’s are about to become a thing of the past. With Covid-19 refusing to go away, will sufficient numbers be willing to gather to watch a movie or a play? Just think, the sound of coughs in the moments before a film starts has always been part of the experience!

Cineworld are certainly heavily invested in the entertainment industry with 790 venues across 11 countries, claiming to be the second largest chain in the world. Since the initial pandemic drop, the share price has failed recover above 100p, a level we’d regard as absolutely crucial to be exceeded if there’s to be sensible warning for proper price recovery. At time of writing, the share is at 38p and miles away from challenging this crucial trigger level. Another, slightly pedantic, detail is the lowest the Big Picture allowed us to calculate against this share was a price level of 165p. In theory, every drop target below such a level was prefaced with impossible minus signs.

 

All this gloom doubtless hints we’re not feeling terribly optimistic for the chains future but as an experiment, we opted to review what the share price requires to give early warning “something” positive may be happening. It looks like there’s a trigger level at 43p with movement above such a point calculating with recovery to an initial 48p with secondary, if exceeded, working out at 56p. The chart visuals suggest attaining 56p shall prove important, challenging the immediate downtrend since March 2020.

With closure above 56p, things start to become slightly more interesting as acceleration to 81p is expected.

If we forget “Big Picture” potentials and simply work with price movements just for this year, the share now has an ultimate bottom of 9p. It needs above Blue on the chart to rubbish the prospect.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:49:24PM	BRENT	43.95									‘cess
9:51:24PM	GOLD	1977.43	1960	1956	1947	1971	1982	1985.5	1994	1970
9:54:27PM	FTSE	6024									Sorry
9:56:44PM	FRANCE	4882.5
9:59:21PM	GERMANY	12665									Success
10:11:55PM	US500	3295									‘cess
10:14:55PM	DOW	26659	26499	26433	26341	26653	26709	26795	26875	26569	Shambles
10:17:06PM	NASDAQ	11061.79									‘cess
10:19:15PM	JAPAN	22381									Success

 

3/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6032 points. Change of 2.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,272,722,908 a change of -22.49%

31/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 5897 points. Change of -1.54%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,512,609,995 a change of 17.63%

30/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 5989 points. Change of -2.32%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,686,446,061 a change of 8.2%

29/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6131 points. Change of 0.03%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,331,168,852 a change of 8.86%

28/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6129 points. Change of 0.41%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,978,793,130 a change of -6.88%

27/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6104 points. Change of -0.31%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,272,805,133 a change of 6.51%

24/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6123 points. Change of -1.42%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,011,520,814 a change of -5.85%

#Brent #SP500 Obviously, we dare not discuss sex positions in an article about the stock market. So it’s probably safer to mention some other positions which are probably more familiar to readers, along with one in particular which it’s certain a majority of traders don’t know exists. It took the largest cargo airplane in the world, the Antonov AN-225, to provoke this refreshing dip into the world of the glaringly obvious.

News the Antonov 225 was visiting a local airfield for a couple of hours was quite electrifying. Despite an utter hatred of flying, the writer suffers from absolute fascination of flying machines, doubtless the result of a childhood addiction to ‘Biggles’ books. There were also, unfortunately, several childhood attempts to build a glider, only one of which caused a hospital visit thanks to gravity and its evil influence.

But the temptation to drop everything and rush across to the mainland to view the aircraft totally consumed plans for Sunday. Knowing quite a crowd would doubtless turn out, a viewing location was chosen which would ideally be under the glide path when the beast approached Prestwick Airport. If everything went to plan, I’d be able to take a few snapshots as it approached low over the sea, not quite the thrill of St Maartens but a fairly reasonable ‘Scottish Poundshop’ facsimile.

This is where “taking a position” entered the frame. I “took a position” by deciding not to bother going. Thanks to leukaemia treatment, a compromised immune system ensures avoiding people is essential. I was about to place myself on a beach amongst a crowd of complete strangers, despite the Covid-19 fear climate.

This was actually quite a big deal.

Of all the aircraft in the world, this particular one must be a ‘bucket list’ entry for a certain class of sad aircraft fanatics. Opting to stay safe at home was a really big mental hurdle.

 

But there’s a remarkable link to stock market thinking with this story. Doubtless, many readers come across adverts for various brokers while viewing webpages. Many of these adverts grudgingly inform; ‘78% of customers lose money when using this broker’. The highest loss number seen, so far, has been 87% of clients losing money.

There’s a fairly brutal and straightforward reason for all these horrific losses and it’s absolutely nothing to do with specific brokers. Customers enthusiastically feel they must have a trade in place, a short position, a long position, a buy order, a sell order. A mainstay of Las Vegas images are suckers endlessly paying money into slot machines.

What people forget is “Doing Nothing” is also taking a position. There is absolutely no rule, no law, dictating you must trade all the time. Successful traders know when to simply turn off and go do something else. Their reasoning will vary but it always comes down to a lack of confidence. Other punters experience losses, glibly explained by using the term “over-trading”.

If not comfortable with something, why risk money? But personally, I suspect I shall always regret not going to see that big airplane.

 

As for Lloyds, there’s probably a bunch of folk now declaring things like “Lloyds is cheap”, and “Lloyds Share Price is a Steal”. At time of writing, the share is at 26.3p, a price level painfully distant from the 64p it started 2020 with. Rather worse, it feels like there’s the potential of further relaxation ahead as weakness below 25.5p points at coming reversal to 24p with secondary, if broken, at a hopeful bottom of 21.25p or so.

This bottom level visually compares with the 21.6p low at the end of 2011, so this alone should serve to provoke a bounce. In addition, this “bottom” target level calculates slightly above our ultimate drop level of 18p, again suggesting price reversals are finally in an endgame phase.

Perhaps there’s an oddball note worthy of mention, thanks to a couple of movements during the last three sessions. In the event the market opts to gap Lloyds Bank share price UP above 29p in the coming week, there’s a heck of an argument favouring taking a long position, then waiting to see where it goes.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
8:48:13PM	BRENT	43.67	42.72	42.485	42.04	53.52	43.82	44.125	44.93	43.33
9:25:32PM	GOLD	1975.56									Success
9:49:59PM	FTSE	5919.66									‘cess
9:56:27PM	FRANCE	4793									Shambles
9:58:38PM	GERMANY	12354									‘cess
10:01:00PM	US500	3277	3256	3239.5	3226	3269	3277	3290.5	3314	3252	‘cess
10:04:14PM	DOW	26484.2									Success
10:05:58PM	NASDAQ	10929
10:08:50PM	JAPAN	21946									Success

 

31/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 5897 points. Change of -1.54%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,512,609,995 a change of 17.63%

30/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 5989 points. Change of -2.32%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,686,446,061 a change of 8.2%

29/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6131 points. Change of 0.03%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,331,168,852 a change of 8.86%

28/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6129 points. Change of 0.41%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,978,793,130 a change of -6.88%

27/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6104 points. Change of -0.31%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,272,805,133 a change of 6.51%

24/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6123 points. Change of -1.42%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,011,520,814 a change of -5.85%

23/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6211 points. Change of 0.06%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,260,959,883 a change of -10.5%

#GBPEUR #FTSE Obviously, there are some things more important than the markets. Apparently the writers waistline is one of them and with “Lockdown” easing, a wife with a history of fad diets insists something new is tried. Yup, this time around it’s been “Goodbye Sugar” and “Hello Fat” as something called the Keto diet is enforced, quite brutally if the truth be told.

To be honest, ditching sugar for July has proven quite easy, despite a lifetime addiction to the stuff. Few things provoke more eyebrow action and sympathetic looks than saying, “Yes, coffee please, with milk and three sugar”, at any sort of meeting. This has been a drink of choice for 40 years, something it was assumed would cause withdrawal symptoms. A guilty secret, discovered in the days of rubbish coffee machines which always ran out of sugar, has been tolerance of black, straight, coffee. It was simply the case the sweet stuff was preferred but never, ever, essential. An entire month without sugar, bread, pasta, croissants (especially croissants) was survived, a weight loss of 5 kilos achieved. The surprising aspect of this “Keto” diet has been the amount of fats consumed, essentially trying to train the body to burn fat rather than carbs. A diet which includes bacon, sausage, steak, and rack of lamb cannot be all bad!

The moral behind this nightmare story, some addictions are easy to break.

 

Of course, will Brits addiction to holidays in Europe makes itself apparent or will GBP vs The Euro remain trading in doldrums territory, the pairing not doing a lot since April?

Trading around 1.1050 presently, the relationship only needs firm up above 1.1091 to suggest some recovery coming to an initial 1.1194 with secondary, if exceeded, at a pretty confident looking 1.1449. For some reason, the market has expressed hesitation at the 1.1500 level repeatedly since the Covid-19 drop, common sense suggesting it’ll doubtless happen again. Only above 1.15 and we’d argue quite firmly in favour of continued recovery to 1.1928, hitting the pre-Covid-19 price level.

Should things opt to go pear shaped (cannot eat fruit on the Keto diet, due to natural sugars), below 1.09 looks troublesome as 1.0677 remains possible with secondary, if broken, at a bottom hopefully of 1.015.

Sorry about the tenuous link between the subjects above. 
Really needed an excuse to mention that 5kg weight loss!

FTSE for FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX) Thankfully PayPal quickly proved why we opted to write about it on Wednesday. It’s hopefully worth paying attention when we drag an oddball out to comment as usually it means we’ve spotted something useful. Things are rather more difficult with our regular “FTSE for FRIDAY” feature as sometimes we don’t have a clue where to start.

Thankfully, this time around, we’ve rather a lot to write about but our enthusiasm is slightly dampened by the UK market briefly sneaking below 5930 points on Thursday. We’d been expecting 5930 to make an appearance for quite some time, an ambition constantly frustrated by a stock market anxious to prove (again) our grasp of timeframes was tenuous. We’d again reminded clients of the 5930 threat in our private gossip on Wednesday, not for a movement expecting the drop to happen the following afternoon. But the moment the FTSE slithered below 6068 points, the ruling drop potential became inevitable.

But there’s a problem.

The FTSE did not bounce at 5930. Instead, it bounced at 5924 points and we’ve discovered, far too often, such pedantic breaks can prove truly important as they frequently imply ruling weakness. As a result, the threat exists of weakness below 5924 points bringing further reversal to an initial 5858 points with secondary, if (when) broken at a bottom and hopefully, a proper rebound, at 5640 points. Nothing suggests this should all occur on the same day but as mentioned previously, our grasp of time is dodgy.

 

The contra scenario suggests paying attention should the UK market strengthen above 6008 points (though distrust an upward spike in the opening second of trade) as it allows for recovery to an initial 6057 points with secondary, if bettered, calculating at 6141 points. We do suspect, near term, some recovery is probable though next week risks being pretty grotty.

Have a good weekend and enjoy Silverstone on telly!

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:55:10PM	BRENT	43.65	42.66	42.315		43.72	44.2	44.53		43.27	Success
9:57:42PM	GOLD	1957.63	1939	1934.5		1951	1962	1966		1946
10:01:01PM	FTSE	6043.43	5976	5867		6038	6070	6084		6020	Success
10:15:03PM	FRANCE	4883.7	4844	4807		4890	4891	4926		4866	Success
10:18:08PM	GERMANY	12527	12413	12294		12487	12565	12664		12422	Success
10:21:01PM	US500	3273	3238	3227.5		3255	3277	3303		3238	Sorry
10:23:08PM	DOW	26491	26256	26177		26381	26522	26575		26286	Success
10:25:07PM	NASDAQ	10894	10683	10597		10770	10909	10992		10703	Sorry
10:27:10PM	JAPAN	22270	22170	22109.5		22292	22292	22372.5		22176	Success

 

30/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 5989 points. Change of -2.32%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,686,446,061 a change of 8.2%

29/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6131 points. Change of 0.03%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,331,168,852 a change of 8.86%

28/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6129 points. Change of 0.41%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,978,793,130 a change of -6.88%

27/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6104 points. Change of -0.31%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,272,805,133 a change of 6.51%

24/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6123 points. Change of -1.42%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,011,520,814 a change of -5.85%

23/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6211 points. Change of 0.06%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,260,959,883 a change of -10.5%

22/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6207 points. Change of -0.99%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,760,873,416 a change of -15.1%

#Gold #SP500 We’re always quick to ridicule retail banks but PayPal are in a league of their own. Once regarded as “just” the online portal for eBay, now they issue cards, payment terminals, and apparently offer business finance. It’d be true to say we’ve always found them helpful to deal with, a voice at the end of a phone willing to exercise common sense when an issue with a transaction occurs.

Their share price has accelerated upward fairly remorselessly over the years, the value quickly exceeding the level before the Covid-19 dip and now looks poised to boldly go higher again.

 

We’ve a little problem worth mentioning, one which may prove important due to their earnings report being announced after the close on the 29th July. The immediate situation suggests movement continuing above 186 should hopefully attempt an initial 193 with secondary, if exceeded, a marginally more interesting 197 dollars. The proximity of both targets worries us a little as this sort of calculation will often point to the presence of a Glass Ceiling for movements, suggesting some hesitation is imminent.

Crucially, should PayPal manage to exceed 197 dollars in the days ahead, it enters uncharted territory as we simply cannot calculate any higher.

 

Should trouble make itself known, the share price needs weaken below 164 dollars as this threatens reversal to an initial 152, hopefully producing a level at which the price bounces. In the event any weakness makes its way below 152 dollars, the price could easily continue reversal toward 121 dollars and hopefully a price level regarded as “bottom”.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:32:38PM	BRENT	44.17
9:36:13PM	GOLD	1969.17	1941	1928.5	1911	1961	1973	1986.5	1998	1950	‘cess
9:45:40PM	FTSE	6152.82									Shambles
9:52:11PM	FRANCE	4977									‘cess
10:04:53PM	GERMANY	12894
10:12:18PM	US500	3262	3211	3198.5	3176	3233	3266	3274	3295	3221
10:15:33PM	DOW	26573									‘cess
10:19:18PM	NASDAQ	10708
10:21:15PM	JAPAN	22530									‘cess

29/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6131 points. Change of 0.03%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,331,168,852 a change of 8.86%

28/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6129 points. Change of 0.41%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,978,793,130 a change of -6.88%

27/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6104 points. Change of -0.31%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,272,805,133 a change of 6.51%

24/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6123 points. Change of -1.42%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,011,520,814 a change of -5.85%

23/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6211 points. Change of 0.06%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,260,959,883 a change of -10.5%

22/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6207 points. Change of -0.99%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,760,873,416 a change of -15.1%

21/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6269 points. Change of 0.13%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,607,940,554 a change of 26.84%

#FTSE #Japan Before producing a report, we generally glance at a companies website for a brief update on their basics. Standard Life Aberdeen prove quite challenging, thanks to the corporate website failing to provide clarity or examples on what they actually do to make money. It took a Google search for some clarity, revealing they’re a UK based g lobal investment company headquartered in Edinburgh, Scotland. It is the largest active asset manager in the UK, with investments in equities, multi-asset, fixed income, real estate and private markets.

Standard Life featured in a brief FT article, where politicians were bemoaning office workers opting to remain working from home, leaving city centres bereft of their usual daytime footfall. The usual sandwich and coffee chains complain, despite lockdown easing, their “take” is down by as much as 85%. As we’ve mentioned previously, the new culture of homeworking is liable to give a long term headache for landlords renting office space, especially when corporate entities such as SLA appreciate substantial savings can be made by reducing the size of their office footprint.

 

As for Standard Life share price, it has not yet recovered above the Covid-19 drop level. Thankfully there are early signs giving some slight hope, the value needing exceed 279p to (hopefully) trigger a recovery cycle to an initial 301p. If bettered, our secondary calculates at 345p and an almost certain glass ceiling thanks to the history of prior highs.

If trouble is to be courted, the share needs slither below 234p to justify a raised eyebrow as this risks provoking a reversal path to an initial 158p with secondary, if broken, at 132p. We cannot calculate below 132p at present, so regard this unlikely drop potential as an “ultimate bottom”.

 

For now, the visuals suggest the company shall be worth keeping an eye on as a jump to 301p makes a lot of sense.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:42:01PM	BRENT	43.62
10:02:06PM	GOLD	1959.68									Success
10:04:08PM	FTSE	6114.26	6083	6060	6026	6121	6152	6163.5	6191	6111
10:07:58PM	FRANCE	4917
10:10:25PM	GERMANY	12794.36									‘cess
10:23:24PM	US500	3221.92
10:25:20PM	DOW	26392									Shambles
10:27:23PM	NASDAQ	10566
10:32:27PM	JAPAN	22547	22490	22386	22274	22590	22665	22714.5	22789	22552	Success

28/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6129 points. Change of 0.41%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,978,793,130 a change of -6.88%

27/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6104 points. Change of -0.31%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,272,805,133 a change of 6.51%

24/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6123 points. Change of -1.42%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,011,520,814 a change of -5.85%

23/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6211 points. Change of 0.06%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,260,959,883 a change of -10.5%

22/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6207 points. Change of -0.99%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,760,873,416 a change of -15.1%

21/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6269 points. Change of 0.13%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,607,940,554 a change of 26.84%

20/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6261 points. Change of -0.46%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,421,196,230 a change of -0.8%