Author: T&T Staff

Aviva plc (LSE:AV.) The UK’s largest insurer and pension provider, Aviva, were an early adopter of the policy to suspend dividend payments in 2020. This stance has apparently increased the groups capital ratio to 182%, hopefully a sign of health for the future. However, they recently opted to cough up a 6p per share dividend at the end of September, giving us excuse to speculate on future share price movements possible before the ex-div date.

 

Since the Covid-19 share price drop in March, Aviva’s share price has behaved as poorly as a retail bank, failing to gain sufficient traction to clamber out of the muck. Presently trading around 286p, the share price requires above 313p before we shall dare believe it has made a triggering movement, one capable of driving recovery to an initial 348p. If exceeded, our secondary calculation works out at a rather more positive sounding 426p, a number which our software advises we should be confident about! Visually, there is certainly ample reason to suspect some hesitation should 426p make a guest appearance as this almost matches the price level, pre-Covid.

 

A family member works with an American investment bank as a programmer and, in common with most corporates, the company moved fairly seamlessly to a ‘working from home’ ethic. He’s been advised this Coronavirus free regime is planned to continue until mid-2021, so opted to ditch his rented accommodation in the city, purchasing a house in the wilds of Scotland with decent internet connectivity as a primary requirement. After making the big move 600 miles north, settling in to enjoy the rotten Scottish weather, he admits the ‘word on the street’ from corporate strongly hints the days of working from glass towers in the city are over with the bean counters realising substantial savings can be made. Aviva certainly qualify as a company with strong city presences and we wonder whether the blinds may completely come up on many of their offices again.

 

For it all to go wrong for Aviva, their share price needs dip below RED on the chart, presently at 214p. Such a movement will suggest coming reversal to a bottom, hopefully, of 128p. We cannot calculate below such a price level.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:10:28PM	BRENT	45.52									Success
10:12:57PM	GOLD	1929.29	1923	1914.5	1899	1938	1952	1963.25	1969	1932
10:15:53PM	FTSE	6106.9									Success
10:23:49PM	FRANCE	5007									Success
10:26:04PM	GERMANY	13072									Success
10:28:24PM	US500	3429.92									Success
10:30:41PM	DOW	28294									Success
10:32:54PM	NASDAQ	11639	11583	11534.5	11470	11640	11726	11740.5	11811	11601	Success
10:35:03PM	JAPAN	23130									Success

 

24/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6104 points. Change of 1.72%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,095,099,740 a change of -18.48%

21/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6001 points. Change of -0.2%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,796,928,950 a change of -1.91%

20/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6013 points. Change of -1.6%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,870,716,769 a change of 8.2%

19/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6111 points. Change of 0.58%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,577,441,706 a change of -6.9%

18/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6076 points. Change of -0.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,842,583,289 a change of -9.83%

17/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6127 points. Change of 0.61%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,261,456,332 a change of 16.19%

14/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6090 points. Change of -1.54%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,667,761,391 a change of -1.93%

#Brent #Dax Following a little brush with mortality* last weekend, questioning whether things can come back from the dead is probably in particularly poor taste. Unfortunately, the sentiment applies to Lloyds as the share price continues to languish in the gutter, despite recently breaking across its own ruling Blue downtrend. Since the trend break, nothing interesting has occurred!

 

It looks like 30.9p should now be regarded as presenting a reasonable trigger level to promote some share price movements for this lazy share price. While presently trading around 28p, this may feel an impossible ambition but we’re inclined to take some (slight) hope from the respect paid to the long term Red uptrend which dates back 8 years. The current situation suggests movement above 30.9p should now attempt an initial 34p with secondary, if exceeded, at a mildly more interesting 35.7p.

Our interest in the 35.7p level may prove important as closure above 35.7 should be significant, tipping a pretty major domino in a longer term price movement cycle which ‘risks’ now heading to 48p as a major point of interest.

 

Of course, the Red uptrend also presents a threat, now suggesting any new weakness below 27.5p could cause the share to retreat to an initial 24.7p with secondary, if broken, at a bottom (hopefully) of 21p. For the present, we’re inclined to mild optimism, if only thanks to the share price having so far avoided the option of closing a session below the point of trend break. This tends suggest the price is awaiting sufficient reason to actually start moving again.

*an unpleasant cardiac event, a surprise rare side effect of a type of chemotherapy.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
2:20:52PM	BRENT	44.74	44.02	43.635	42.89	44.9	45.05	45.31	45.74	44.37	‘cess
2:22:39PM	GOLD	1943.44									‘cess
2:56:49PM	FTSE	6017.61									‘cess
2:59:46PM	FRANCE	4904.7									Success
3:02:11PM	GERMANY	12791	12772	12725.75	12500	12800	12800	12856	12932	12733	Shambles
3:07:51PM	US500	3396									Shambles
3:09:45PM	DOW	27919									‘cess
3:21:55PM	NASDAQ	11568									‘cess
3:24:27PM	JAPAN	22907									‘cess

21/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6001 points. Change of -0.2%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,796,928,950 a change of -1.91%

20/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6013 points. Change of -1.6%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,870,716,769 a change of 8.2%

19/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6111 points. Change of 0.58%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,577,441,706 a change of -6.9%

18/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6076 points. Change of -0.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,842,583,289 a change of -9.83%

17/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6127 points. Change of 0.61%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,261,456,332 a change of 16.19%

14/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6090 points. Change of -1.54%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,667,761,391 a change of -1.93%

13/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6185 points. Change of -1.51%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,740,034,569 a change of -28.55%

#SP500 #GOLD The day after we discussed trading internationally, the need arose to purchase something from Canada, hence GBPCAD. The initial urge, just to pay, was somehow suppressed to give time for a look at the currency pairing.

Presently trading around 1.74, the relationship needs strengthen above 1.77 to confirm the potential of recovery to an initial 1.783 with secondary, if exceeded, up at 1.85. Visually, each ambition makes a degree of sense with the secondary, if achieved, taking the pair into a zone with longer term possibilities at 1.97.

Needless to say, the option “Buy It Now” was quickly chosen, realising the probable potential of 1.85 made little difference when considering spending 270 Canadian Dollars on an obscure electronic item!

FTSE for FRIDAY The market feels a bit odd, the FTSE ending Thursday really feeling like it wants to reverse a bit further. This is quite at odds with US markets, all of which feel they want to strength a bit. Friday should prove interesting as surely one shall influence the other, giving a clue as to where the underlying trend presently lies.

Near term, the FTSE (and please remember we are talking about the London market during trading hours only) calculates as capable of some reversal, should the index wander below 6008 points. A movement such as this risks triggering reversals to an initial 5949 points with secondary, if broken, working out at 5900 points.

In fairness, we need to mention this sort of calamity takes the market into a position where, in the absence of miracles, ongoing travel to a hopeful bottom of 5770 points is possible eventually.

 

The converse side, comes should the FTSE somehow manage above 6046 points. Such a scenario allows for slightly useless recovery to an initial 6058 points with secondary, if exceeded, calculating at a rather more useful looking 6098 points. This would certainly undo the poison of the last few sessions, leaving the FTSE poised for 6140 and beyond.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:46:43PM	BRENT	45.34	44.4	44.155	Subscribe	45.42	45.48	45.885	Subscribe	45.13	Shambles
9:48:53PM	GOLD	1949.27	1925	1921.5		1947	1956	1964		1937	‘cess
9:54:29PM	FTSE	6022.91	6008	5955		6057	6036	6046		6009	‘cess
9:58:52PM	FRANCE	4918.8	4885	4881		4930	4939	4954		4900	‘cess
10:01:37PM	GERMANY	12869	12782	12747		12881	12893	12950.5		12782	Success
10:07:13PM	US500	3386	3369	3354		3392	3389	3393		3374
10:20:54PM	DOW	27745	27499	27397.5		27635	27781	27838		27680	Success
10:23:27PM	NASDAQ	11487	11350	11299		11440	11503	11535.5		11350	Success
10:27:03PM	JAPAN	22962	22837	22727.5		23000	23076	23108.5		22922	‘cess

 

20/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6013 points. Change of -1.6%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,870,716,769 a change of 8.2%

19/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6111 points. Change of 0.58%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,577,441,706 a change of -6.9%

18/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6076 points. Change of -0.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,842,583,289 a change of -9.83%

17/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6127 points. Change of 0.61%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,261,456,332 a change of 16.19%

14/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6090 points. Change of -1.54%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,667,761,391 a change of -1.93%

13/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6185 points. Change of -1.51%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,740,034,569 a change of -28.55%

12/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6280 points. Change of 2.05%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,234,357,396 a change of 7.98%

#FTSE #France A glaring hole in the logic with crypto currency comes from massive swings in value.  Imagine selling your central London garden shed for 500 #Bitcoin, valuing it at around 5 million dollars. And within a few weeks, the rate changes and you’ve just let your shed go for 2.5 million instead. As a result, instead of being a property speculator, you’ve just become a crypto speculator, one which is walking funny.

This level of risk is obviously present with any international transaction. A chum, who imported staircases to the UK from Italy, would regularly check Euro movements with us before paying his supplier, sometimes finding he’d be wisest paying invoices early and at other times, delaying a few days could make a substantial difference to the bank transfer. But as crypto currency is an ideal way to hide ill gotten gains, selling & buying physical items certainly implies a risk quite far beyond the taxman’s remit.

 

Ethereum price movements certainly look worth some consideration, if considering using a stash of them to purchase something. At present, movements above 450 dollars look very capable of accelerating the value to 495 next where visually, some hesitation looks possible. If exceeded, things become rather more interesting as our secondary price level calculates up at 642 dollars. In fact, with closure one day above 495 dollars, the longer term attraction works out at 824 dollars.

 

If it all intends go wrong, Ethereum, trading at 411 dollars at time of writing, needs slip below 300 dollars to ring the first warning bell for reversals coming. We suspect, if you’re about to purchase a discrete Van Gogh with Ethereum, it may prove worthwhile waiting a few weeks.

 

*** We commented on the 19th August Supply@Me Capital were listed on the AIM. They are actually listed on the main LSE market. Sorry.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:15:10PM	BRENT	45.6
10:17:54PM	GOLD	1929.62									Success
10:22:12PM	FTSE	6075	6044	6012	5962	6096	6111	6123	6150	6081
10:28:18PM	FRANCE	4955	4915	4906	4881	4960	4972	4982	5004	4949
10:30:18PM	GERMANY	12941									Success
10:32:09PM	US500	3372.97									‘cess
10:34:20PM	DOW	27690
10:36:05PM	NASDAQ	11329
10:37:50PM	JAPAN	23089

 

19/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6111 points. Change of 0.58%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,577,441,706 a change of -6.9%

18/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6076 points. Change of -0.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,842,583,289 a change of -9.83%

17/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6127 points. Change of 0.61%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,261,456,332 a change of 16.19%

14/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6090 points. Change of -1.54%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,667,761,391 a change of -1.93%

13/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6185 points. Change of -1.51%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,740,034,569 a change of -28.55%

12/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6280 points. Change of 2.05%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,234,357,396 a change of 7.98%

11/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6154 points. Change of 1.72%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,847,593,064 a change of 33.01%

#Gold #DOW People of a certain age find “hip” naming conventions often quite silly. There was a phase when intruding an “i” at the start of a product name somehow convincing marketing folk this made a product more interesting. Equally, there’s the curse of the ‘#’ hash tag, now often used to disparage, and of course, the much loved ‘@’ symbol. All this nonsense tends imply people employed in the creative side can only think within 4 keys of the r/h/s of a keyboard!

The company, Supply@me appear to be a new listing, appearing on the market in March 2020 at probably the worst time for a Listing on the AIM. Instead of a reasonable gain, prior to the price being trashed, the share failed do anything interesting, then plunged in value. In the last couple of days, we’ve received rather a few emails asking our thoughts against this new listing. Generally we prefer rather more than 4 months of data before expressing any confidence in our findings.

Immediately, the suggestion given is of price growth above 0.9p allowing travel to an initial 1.34p. Should the price manage to close above this level, our secondary calculates at 2.14p. Both target levels represent new all time highs for the company and despite us being unable to calculate above 2.14p, if the company is the subject of enthusiastic comment among internet chatrooms, the share price could obviously continue higher.

If it all intends go wrong, the price presently needs break below Red on the chart, presently 0.5p.

 

We’d suggest taking a glance at the fundamentals may prove worthwhile. A simple glance at their website threw up one tiny little question:

“Why didn’t they employ a website design company who were capable of ensuring the default “WordPress” logo didn’t appear on internet browser tabs?” WordPress web templates are great, often free, and very popular. We use one ourselves but don’t expect a Listed company to opt for such a basic option and ignore their own corporate logo.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:46:38PM	BRENT	45.51
10:48:47PM	GOLD	2002.52	1976	1962	1944	1996	2019	22039	2071	1997	‘cess
10:51:13PM	FTSE	6080									Shambles
10:55:40PM	FRANCE	4928.7
10:58:14PM	GERMANY	12878									Success
11:02:21PM	US500	3392
11:04:47PM	DOW	27791	27663	27574	27429	27845	28005	28168.5	28352	27814
11:06:38PM	NASDAQ	11410
11:08:50PM	JAPAN	23046

 

 

 

18/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6076 points. Change of -0.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,842,583,289 a change of -9.83%

17/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6127 points. Change of 0.61%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,261,456,332 a change of 16.19%

14/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6090 points. Change of -1.54%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,667,761,391 a change of -1.93%

13/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6185 points. Change of -1.51%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,740,034,569 a change of -28.55%

12/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6280 points. Change of 2.05%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,234,357,396 a change of 7.98%

11/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6154 points. Change of 1.72%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,847,593,064 a change of 33.01%

10/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6050 points. Change of 0.3%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,644,538,945 a change of -12.52%

#Brent #CAC40 It would be enjoyable to suggest a Retail Bank share price movement provoked a cardiac problem, confining our usual “headline section” writer to hospital. However, there has been no such movement amongst the usual culprits as they continue to play in the gutter of share prices, often trading below logical bottom levels.

For Barclays, there is an immediate issue looking dangerous as it produces an interesting “what if” scenario.

What if Barclays drops below 107p? Will the price plummet down to a pretty tame sounding 105p?

This scenario is quite a big deal, visually pretty certain to bring further reversals to 101p and the edge of a problem. If the price fails to rebound from Red on the chart (we do not think it shall rebound), the visuals indicate the risk of continued reversals down to 86p and hopefully (no guarantee) a real rebound.

Barclays now needs above 114p before we dare become slightly breathless with anticipation. Our ‘wounded soldier’ is recovering and will be back writing later this week hopefully.

 

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
12:36:57AM	BRENT	45.66	44.74	44.415	43.97	45.49	45.75	45.945	46.35	45.24
12:40:09AM	GOLD	1983.26
12:42:03AM	FTSE	6139.7
12:43:36AM	FRANCE	4974	4936	4911.5	4849	4981	5002	5013.5	5039	4958
12:45:30AM	GERMANY	12964
12:57:49AM	US500	3389.72
1:02:41AM	DOW	27896

17/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6127 points. Change of 0.61%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,261,456,332 a change of 16.19%

14/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6090 points. Change of -1.54%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,667,761,391 a change of -1.93%

13/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6185 points. Change of -1.51%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,740,034,569 a change of -28.55%

12/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6280 points. Change of 2.05%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,234,357,396 a change of 7.98%

11/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6154 points. Change of 1.72%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,847,593,064 a change of 33.01%

10/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6050 points. Change of 0.3%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,644,538,945 a change of -12.52%

7/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6032 points. Change of 0.1%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,166,017,548 a change of -2.34%

Sorry, no update.

The person supposed to be doing it is skiving. Claiming cardiac problems and lazing around in hospital does not cut it!