Author: T&T Staff

#BrentCrude #DAX As we make our 3rd visit to #Natwest this year, we’re surely permitted a little giggle regarding our previous projection (link). We’d given 191p as a pretty major point of interest, a level at which we suspected some hesitation was possible. In the period since, the highest the share price has closed a session was 190.95p, an interesting result by any standards. We often will bang on about the importance of a price closing a session above a target level. Despite Natwest exceeding our 191 during trading on several occasions, rather spitefully the share price has (thus far) avoiding closing above this trigger level.

Is it the end of the world?

We don’t think so. As the chart below highlights, Natwest Group Plc are now trading substantially above the immediate downtrend since 2019. Perhaps rather more importantly, the share price will deserve greater scrutiny that the current UK Govt giving tax workers a 13% salary increase, while restricting the nursing profession to a 1% rise! Wasn’t there a time when the media used to be all over things like this? Now criticism is strangely muted while the media accepts Govt issue constant full page ‘Covid’ advertising, along with multiple ‘Covid’ TV advertising slots.

 

In many respects, Natwest are almost ready to present ‘A SURE THING’ trading opportunity. Despite the ongoing threat of Brexit bearishness or Pandemic problems, in the event Natwest finds sufficient excuse to next trade above 194p, we shall regard the share price as entering a recovery cycle toward an initial 211p with secondary, if exceeded, calculating at a longer term 252p. If we look back to 2018, there’s a pretty solid promise the share can be expected to experience future hesitation around the 252p level. At present, we have extreme difficulty in dangling a metaphorical carrot with any potentials for seriously longer term gain. It must be remembered this is a share which crashed to 9.6p during the financial crisis. Only due to a 10:1 share consolidation is the price now viewed as 188p, many traders remaining perfectly aware it’s “really” only trading at 18.8p if given an honest evaluation.

 

For it all to go horribly wrong, Natwest now requires trade below 164p to create panic. In such a scenario, we can calculate an initial reversal potential to 125 with secondary, if broken, at a bottom of 104p. Visually, this looks as unlikely as BBC broadcasting a fly on the wall program, showing the Royal Family during the forthcoming Meg&Harry TV show.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:35:20PM	BRENT	69.48	66.21	65.005	63.51	67.65	69.5	70.215	71.35	67.87	Success
9:48:03PM	GOLD	1701.5
1:25:48PM	FTSE	6704									Shambles
1:35:23PM	FRANCE	5844.2									hmmmm
1:38:11PM	GERMANY	14060	13908	13865	13754	14006	14072	14089	14164	13990	‘cess
1:40:24PM	US500	3841.27									Success
1:43:41PM	DOW	31527									Shambles
1:45:27PM	NASDAQ	12658									‘cess
1:47:35PM	JAPAN	29171									Success

5/03/2021 FTSE Closed at 6630 points. Change of -0.3%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,989,244,582 a change of -1.26%

4/03/2021 FTSE Closed at 6650 points. Change of -0.37%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,078,677,923 a change of 10.48%

3/03/2021 FTSE Closed at 6675 points. Change of 0.94%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,407,091,178 a change of -5.86%

2/03/2021 FTSE Closed at 6613 points. Change of 0.38%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,806,160,931 a change of 10.04%

1/03/2021 FTSE Closed at 6588 points. Change of 1.62%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,185,435,500 a change of -34.59%

26/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6483 points. Change of -2.53%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,456,681,275 a change of 48.72%

25/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6651 points. Change of -0.11%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,358,793,501 a change of -9.6%

 

SUCCESS above means both FAST & SLOW targets were met. ‘CESS means just the FAST target met and probably the next time it is exceeded, movement to the SLOW target shall commence.

Our commentary is in two sections. Immediately below are today’s updated comments. If our commentary remains valid, the share can be found in the bottom section which has a RED heading. Hopefully, this will mean you no longer need to flip back through previous reports. HYPERLINKS DISABLED IN THIS VERSION

Please remember, all prices are mid-price (halfway between the Buy and Sell). When we refer to a price CLOSING above a specific level, we are viewing the point where we can regard a trend as changing. Otherwise, we are simply speculating on near term trading targets. Our website is www.trendsandtargets.com.

UPDATE. We often give an initial and a secondary price. If the initial is exceeded, we still expect it to fall back but the next time the initial is bettered, the price should continue to the secondary. The converse it true with price drops.

We can be contacted at info@trendsandtargets.com. Spam filters set to maximum so only legit emails get through…

Section One – Outlook Updated Today. Click here for Section Two – Outlook Remains Valid shares

The Arrow icons refer to expected Big Picture direction. No Arrow, No clue!

Click Epic to jump to share: LSE:AFC AFC Energy** **LSE:BARC Barclays** **LSE:BBY BALFOUR BEATTY** **LSE:BLOE Block Energy PLC** **LSE:BP. BP PLC** **LSE:FGP Firstgroup** **LSE:FRES Fresnillo** **LSE:GENL Genel** **LSE:GKP Gulf Keystone** **LSE:HIK Hikma** **LSE:IPF International Personal Finance** **LSE:ITRK Intertek** **LSE:NWG Natwest** **LSE:PMO Premier** **LSE:TLW Tullow** **

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Updated charts published on : AFC Energy, Barclays, BALFOUR BEATTY, Block Energy PLC, BP PLC, Firstgroup, Fresnillo, Genel, Gulf Keystone, Hikma, International Personal Finance, Intertek, Natwest, Premier, Tullow,

LSE:AFCLSE:AFC AFC Energy. Close Mid-Price: 45.05 Percentage Change: + 2.27% Day High: 49.15 Day Low: 40.05

If AFC Energy experiences continued weakness below 40.05, it will invaria ……..

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LSE:BARCLSE:BARC Barclays. Close Mid-Price: 171.58 Percentage Change: + 2.95% Day High: 176.18 Day Low: 164.66

Target met. In the event of Barclays enjoying further trades beyond 176.1 ……..

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LSE:BBY BALFOUR BEATTY Close Mid-Price: 292 Percentage Change: -0.21% Day High: 296 Day Low: 289.8

All BALFOUR BEATTY needs are mid-price trades ABOVE 296 to improve accele ……..

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LSE:BLOELSE:BLOE Block Energy PLC. Close Mid-Price: 3 Percentage Change: + 5.26% Day High: 3 Day Low: 2.83

Still a bit dodgy, needing below 2.8 to trigger reversal to an initial 2p ……..

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LSE:BP.LSE:BP. BP PLC. Close Mid-Price: 318.8 Percentage Change: + 1.82% Day High: 326.45 Day Low: 311.8

Continued trades against BP. with a mid-price ABOVE 326.45 should improve ……..

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LSE:FGPLSE:FGP Firstgroup. Close Mid-Price: 90 Percentage Change: + 0.00% Day High: 94.7 Day Low: 89.05

All Firstgroup needs are mid-price trades ABOVE 94.7 to improve accelerat ……..

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LSE:FRES Fresnillo Close Mid-Price: 886.2 Percentage Change: -3.15% Day High: 916.6 Day Low: 882.4

In the event Fresnillo experiences weakness below 882.4 it calculates wit ……..

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LSE:GENLLSE:GENL Genel. Close Mid-Price: 185.2 Percentage Change: + 6.31% Day High: 187.4 Day Low: 176.6

Further movement against Genel ABOVE 187.4 should improve acceleration to ……..

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LSE:GKPLSE:GKP Gulf Keystone. Close Mid-Price: 189 Percentage Change: + 7.51% Day High: 199.4 Day Low: 176.4

Target met. Further movement against Gulf Keystone ABOVE 199.4 should imp ……..

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LSE:HIK Hikma Close Mid-Price: 2193 Percentage Change: -1.97% Day High: 2237 Day Low: 2191

Continued weakness against HIK taking the price below 2191 calculates as ……..

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LSE:IPFLSE:IPF International Personal Finance. Close Mid-Price: 102.6 Percentage Change: + 10.44% Day High: 101.6 Day Low: 93.1

Continued trades against IPF with a mid-price ABOVE 101.6 should improve ……..

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LSE:ITRK Intertek Close Mid-Price: 5370 Percentage Change: -0.96% Day High: 5434 Day Low: 5288

If Intertek experiences continued weakness below 5288, it will invariably ……..

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LSE:NWGLSE:NWG Natwest. Close Mid-Price: 188.05 Percentage Change: + 0.80% Day High: 193.4 Day Low: 184.5

In the event of Natwest enjoying further trades beyond 194, the share sho ……..

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LSE:PMOLSE:PMO Premier. Close Mid-Price: 30.68 Percentage Change: + 2.37% Day High: 32.62 Day Low: 30.31

Target met. Further movement against Premier ABOVE 32.62 should improve a ……..

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LSE:TLWLSE:TLW Tullow. Close Mid-Price: 50.82 Percentage Change: + 9.81% Day High: 53.52 Day Low: 46.24

Target met. Further movement against Tullow ABOVE 53.52 should improve ac ……..

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*** End of “Updated Today” comments on shares.

#FTSE for FRIDAY  We’ve a frequent problem with ‘Chart Patterns’, not least being their utter unreliability. It’s often the case of something being true for one market proving to be the exact opposite in another. Movements recently with the FTSE & #WallSt are providing a perfect case in point, allowing us to enter ‘teaching mode’ for a welcome change. The two charts below, dealing with the FTSE and Wall St show an interesting movement with each index. Our point, essentially, would be a strong suspicion Wall St would be about to surge upward, if only the US index had produced similar movements to the UK.

When an American index enacts this sequence;

1. Break the trend
2. Follow the trend from below
3. Exceed the level of the original trend break and regains the prior trend.

; we’ve learned to expect surprise future strength. When we apply our US model to the UK index, it translates with the potential of coming growth toward 7,040 points.

Unfortunately, a US model will rarely prove reliable when applied elsewhere, doubtless reflecting differences in thought processes from one side of the Atlantic to the other. In America, perpetual hope which is backed up by action. “It’s broken trend. No worries, it’s going up again and look, it just regained the trend. BUY”

But in Europe, “It’s broken trend. Don’t trust it, the value is increasing but it just proved the trend line was weak. SELL!”

It’s easy to snigger about this sort of nonsense but there’s little doubt the eternal optimism of America is a commodity often only found amongst the gullible in British internet chatrooms for certain AIM shares. If anyone is interested, we rather suspect the movement in the US index is a warning for imminent reversal to around 29,900 points, a level at which we’d hope for a rebound.

 

As for the FTSE for FRIDAY, there are some slight potentials showing as above 6670 points calculates with an initial ambition of 6708 points with secondary, if exceeded, at 6743 points. If triggered, the very tightest stop looks wide at 6615 points.

The alternate scenario allows for weakness below 6608 to drive reversals to an initial 6568 with secondary, when broken, at 6523 points.

 

And on the bright side, it’s now just 21 days until Formula1 kicks off in Bahrain.

FREE FIRST MOVE FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:50:03PM	BRENT	66.8	63.95	63.075		65.83	67.59	68.48		64.8	Success
9:53:03PM	GOLD	1698	1690	1674		1740	1722	1733.5		1706	‘cess
9:54:32PM	FTSE	6604.48	6563	6531.5		6604	6670	6683		6612	‘cess
9:56:38PM	FRANCE	5789.2	5768	5744		5796	5804	5816.5		5770	‘cess
9:59:25PM	GERMANY	13967	13947	13885		14008	14098	14139		13998	‘cess
10:12:43PM	US500	3767	3721	3678		3777	3795	3812.5		3745	Success
10:18:02PM	DOW	30943	30740	30439.5		30972	31026	31184		30796	Success
10:21:15PM	NASDAQ	12445	12308	12216		12546	12628	12698		12415	Success
10:24:01PM	JAPAN	28932	28700	28593		28985	29195	29346.5		28995	Success

4/03/2021 FTSE Closed at 6650 points. Change of -0.37%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,078,677,923 a change of 10.48%

3/03/2021 FTSE Closed at 6675 points. Change of 0.94%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,407,091,178 a change of -5.86%

2/03/2021 FTSE Closed at 6613 points. Change of 0.38%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,806,160,931 a change of 10.04%

1/03/2021 FTSE Closed at 6588 points. Change of 1.62%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,185,435,500 a change of -34.59%

26/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6483 points. Change of -2.53%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,456,681,275 a change of 48.72%

25/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6651 points. Change of -0.11%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,358,793,501 a change of -9.6%

24/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6658 points. Change of 0.5%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,033,846,680 a change of -16.27%

#Gold #WallSt #Hammerson (LSE:HMSO) look worth paying attention to, doubtless a company due to experience happier days as lockdown eases and footfall begins. It was almost amusing to note one of their “Flagship” properties, Silverburn shopping, dining, & leisure destination, was once known as Pollok Shopping Centre. This flagship destination certainly invoked childhood memories, working in our family business just along the road from the place, being robbed at knifepoint once, a gang once, and helping a motorcyclist who’d just been peppered by kids with a shotgun.

Glasgow once had a dreadful reputation for gangs and violence, a problem easily solved by bulldozing troublesome areas and moving the inhabitants elsewhere. Pollok was one such destination. Despite my closest lifelong friend being from the area, folk familiar with the place had few expectations of a gentrified development succeeding. Fortunately, this was one area where the developers appear to have got things right, the area around the “Flagship” shopping centre now vastly improved from days of old. Unfortunately, my own strongest memory is exquisite detail of the big knife (a bayonet, I think) pointing at my 14 year old chest. I think the robber got around 15 quid, along with a few cans of Duckhams motor oil and some Girling brake fluid. The brain is a strange beast!

 

Fond recollections aside, we’re pretty optimistic for the future of Hammerson share price. When we apply our normal recovery scenario, it appears movement next above just 31.5p should attempt an initial 33.75p. If exceeded, our secondary expectation is more useful at 42.75p. Should the market adhere to the current playbook, it’s likely any recovery exceeding 33.75p shall doubtless reverse a bit, potentially to around the 29p level, before again accelerating upward, eventually finding our longer term secondary.

As always, we’ve got a “however” to be dusted down. Visually, it appears crucial this share price finds an excuse to close a session above 40p at some point. This is liable to become a big deal, one made possible by our current secondary target. Such a scenario potentially will give impetus to the price to reach for 63p in the future, breaking the downtrend since 2018, providing a whole new level for long term hopes.

For now, it looks like it wants to reach 42.75p, so worth watching.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:49:23PM	BRENT	63.93
9:51:17PM	GOLD	1712.44	1701	1692	1676	1717	1730	1738.5	1751	1715
9:53:16PM	FTSE	6642									‘cess
10:04:06PM	FRANCE	5798.7									‘cess
10:06:10PM	GERMANY	14002.33									‘cess
10:12:28PM	US500	3815									Success
10:14:35PM	DOW	31288	31238	31121	30939	31444	31503	31550.5	31653	31383	Shambles
10:17:33PM	NASDAQ	12692									Success
10:19:44PM	JAPAN	29291

 

 

#FTSE #Nasdaq News of one time footballer, David Beckham, entering the drug trade should probably not be a surprise. From personal experience, use of  CBD oil during 2018 provided amazing levels of pain relief, right up until the point the UK Govt stepped in. Despite the product being totally incapable of giving a cannabis “high”, regulations were changed to make it virtually impossible to purchase. Instead, converts could only purchase fake CBD oil from health food stores, a product derived from the hemp plant with absolutely no medical benefits.

The period since 2018 saw the launch of several cannabis focussed listings in Canada and the USA, virtually all of which followed similar share price trajectories with incredible highs when the market took their first breath, followed by incredible lows when the markets realised their was some distance to go in terms of regulation. Cellular Goods Plc (LSE:CBX), a UK listing, appear to be taking advantage of proposed changes to FCA rules, allowing companies to list on the UK stock market if their products have a medical application.

In one respect, Cellular Goods differ from other companies in the field. Their products are synthetic and products in a lab, rather spoiling the illusion the Beckhams will establish cannabis farms in their extensive attic space. It’s interesting the company website suggests focus on beauty and skincare first, then athletic recovery products and this, doubtless, is where the medical application can be found.

 

Cellular Goods listing is effectively only three sessions old. If we opt to review the course plotted by Tilray on the Nasdaq or Canopy Growth, the initial launch saw the share price flutter downhill and only once the earliest high was exceeded thereafter, things became very interesting. For Tilray, this meant an eventual rise from 34 dollars to 300 dollars two months later. Then it fell off a cliff. For Canopy Growth, we saw a rise from 25 dollars to 56 dollars. Then it also fell off a (smaller) cliff.

 

Should Cellular Goods intend a similar route, it’s fairly key the price find sufficient excuse to trade above 27.5p. At present, this looks visually improbable. Currently trading at 12.75p, the share need only fall below 11.25p to doubtless discover a bottom around 7.5p. For the brave, if such a level appears, it will doubtless serve as an ideal entry point for a punt for the longer term.

If we review the first few days trading, the share price needs exceed 16.75p currently, a movement theoretically capable of 27.75p and a nudge above its initial high price. As a result, we can calculate a secondary potential of 39p. The price would need trade above 45p to enter a brave new world, where the sky is the limit.

Do remember, Canadian and US cannabis prices, while doing extremely well in the months following launch, all tend to come off their highs quite brutally.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:30:58PM	BRENT	62.51
10:32:27PM	GOLD	1738.72
10:34:29PM	FTSE	6634.62	6550	6529	6482	6598	6670	6698	6780	6605	‘cess
10:37:44PM	FRANCE	5811
10:40:23PM	GERMANY	14037
10:43:11PM	US500	3869.59
10:45:01PM	DOW	31425.4
10:46:47PM	NASDAQ	13064.92	13048	12980	12863	13192	13331	13444.5	13580	13189
10:48:14PM	JAPAN	29444									‘cess

2/03/2021 FTSE Closed at 6613 points. Change of 0.38%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,806,160,931 a change of 10.04%

1/03/2021 FTSE Closed at 6588 points. Change of 1.62%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,185,435,500 a change of -34.59%

26/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6483 points. Change of -2.53%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,456,681,275 a change of 48.72%

25/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6651 points. Change of -0.11%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,358,793,501 a change of -9.6%

24/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6658 points. Change of 0.5%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,033,846,680 a change of -16.27%

23/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6625 points. Change of 0.2%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,400,811,010 a change of 24.64%

22/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6612 points. Change of -0.18%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,739,937,565 a change of 0.76%

#GoldFutures #SP500_futures Usually we like to present our trading scenario with trigger levels and targets. Unfortunately, Brent Crude is making a nuisance of itself, thanks to price behaviour during the last month. Despite the majority of traders not actually trading Brent in the commodities markets, it’s a pretty key indicator insofar the price of Brent will always effect the price of Major Oilers. And of course, if major oilers go up, so shall the FTSE.

 

In preparation for expensive times ahead, we’ve already taken action, buying 50 litres of diesel for our little red tractor, 1,200 litres of heating oil, and 10 litres of petrol for the chainsaw. To be honest, the diesel purchase was nothing to do with market forces, it’s just that time of year when grass will soon start to grow. And the heating oil purchase was a coincidence as the alternative was freezing while our miserable Scottish climate pretends to be heating up. Finally, petrol for the chainsaw is probably best filed under “fun”. Last years remnants of fuel were drained months ago, thanks to modern petrol actually having a shelf life, then it goes off! But invariably, any job involving the chainsaw tends be provide light relief, often concealing the hard work.

Now armed with 6+ months of fuel, the next chore is to actually service the garden machinery and this year, a solid effort shall be made during March to fix the brakes on the tractor. Invariably friends visiting want a go on it and with lockdown potentially ending, hopefully some chums invade. It’s perhaps asking a bit much to expect someone driving the tractor to engage reverse while moving forward. The brakes simply do not work!

 

February witnessed Brent climb from 55 dollars through to our previous “market high” target of 65 dollars. The climb was pretty remorseless, taking the product above and below our target level from December last year (Link). As per our usual custom, we’d not given a 3rd target level but there’s little doubt, despite the potential of some near term reversals, Brent crude should continue its climb.

The product needs reverse below $48 to cancel our current optimistic scenario.

Our next target level for Brent looks like $68.5 with secondary, when exceeded, at $74.5. We fully expect the secondary target of $74.5 to experience some stutters, if only due to a prior high in 2019. Unusually, we can give a third target level at 95 dollars, visually a massive jump and one we suspect unlikely on the current cycle.

 

If searching for near term indications of weakness, below $63 looks pretty certain to drip down to $61.70. If broken, continual reversal to a bottom, hopefully, of $57 is expected.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:59:03PM	BRENT	63.28									‘cess
10:05:50PM	GOLD	1725	1717	1678	1646	1743	1747	1761	1767	1732	Success
10:09:12PM	FTSE	6610									‘cess
10:12:18PM	FRANCE	5807									‘cess
10:26:26PM	GERMANY	14037									Success
10:28:56PM	US500	3905	3836	3810.5	3776	3870	3915	3958	4012	3868	‘cess
10:31:08PM	DOW	31579									Success
10:38:14PM	NASDAQ	13315									‘cess
10:40:28PM	JAPAN	29901									‘cess

1/03/2021 FTSE Closed at 6588 points. Change of 1.62%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,185,435,500 a change of -34.59%

26/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6483 points. Change of -2.53%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,456,681,275 a change of 48.72%

25/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6651 points. Change of -0.11%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,358,793,501 a change of -9.6%

24/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6658 points. Change of 0.5%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,033,846,680 a change of -16.27%

23/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6625 points. Change of 0.2%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,400,811,010 a change of 24.64%

22/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6612 points. Change of -0.18%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,739,937,565 a change of 0.76%

19/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6624 points. Change of 0.11%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,689,261,003 a change of 15.24%

#Dax #BrentCrude Today, it’s March and we’re already seeing some early signs of spring. One odd feature was late this year, the traditional “Running of The Frogs” event here in Argyll, Scotland. This (completely unknown) series of evenings has countless thousand frogs hopping across the shore road from the waters edge, presumably where they hibernate over winter. Within the following week, puddles in the forests are full of frog spawn. Traditionally, the earlier the migration, the better the summer!

Frog Thinking goes like this; “Better wake up and get to a puddle or pond now as everything will dry up pretty soon.”

Therefore, the start of February will sometimes see the road lined with flattened frogs, motorists completely unaware they’ve just driven over a (usually) reliable weather forecaster. Unfortunately, this great migration has been late this year and it tends suggest spring shall be wet, making us forget our usual hope for May & June providing the best months of a Scottish summer. Tonight, the frogs are massing, looking like leafs on a dark road surface. Early March frog mayhem on the road outside shall not give great ambition for a dry year ahead.

 

Another sign of things changing – a bit – has been Barclays. Announcing resumption of their dividend (only 1p/share) it was a fairly lacklustre sign of things returned to ‘normal’ but despite their mention of losses in the last full year, the company share price has risen a solid 10% since their results announcement. We’ve a couple of reasons to believe this rise shall prove important for the longer term.

Three weeks ago, when we reviewed Barclays (link), we’d given criteria for a price rise to 160.5p. This was achieved, even exceeded, and the share managed to close above the target level twice last week. For us, this ticks a box to justify longer term optimism.

Secondly, the chart has a Blue downtrend which dates back to 2007. Despite some dramatics this year, the share price has now cleared this downtrend, again giving some excuse for optimism. Next above 166p allows us to calculate the potential of continued growth to 181p with secondary, if exceeded, working out at a pretty solid looking 190p. The secondary effectively matches the high of the share price before the price caught the Covid-19 bug almost exactly a year ago. Common sense alone suggests the risk of hesitation at such a level.

For it all to go horribly wrong, Barclays share price needs now actually close a session below 140p. To be fair, closure even below 155p would now give early warning of some alarm.

Hopefully our optimism isn’t as misplaced as a frog hopping across the main road outside, a night, with no lights or even a dayglo frog jacket.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:25:21PM	BRENT	64.51	64.15	63.87	62.89	65.5	65.73	66.255	66.94	64.25	‘cess
2:12:12PM	GOLD	1735									Success
2:01:13PM	FTSE	6500									Success
2:05:31PM	FRANCE	5709
2:10:11PM	GERMANY	13796	13714	13620	13569	13858	13877	13899.5	13987	13753	‘cess
2:12:58PM	US500	3810.77									‘cess
2:17:10PM	DOW	30954									‘cess
2:19:54PM	NASDAQ	12913
2:22:45PM	JAPAN	29237									Success

 

 

26/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6483 points. Change of -2.53%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,456,681,275 a change of 48.72%

25/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6651 points. Change of -0.11%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,358,793,501 a change of -9.6%

24/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6658 points. Change of 0.5%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,033,846,680 a change of -16.27%

23/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6625 points. Change of 0.2%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,400,811,010 a change of 24.64%

22/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6612 points. Change of -0.18%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,739,937,565 a change of 0.76%

19/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6624 points. Change of 0.11%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,689,261,003 a change of 15.24%

18/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6617 points. Change of -1.39%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,804,629,617 a change of -22.73%

The last six sessions of the #FTSE have been epically boring for us at Trends and Targets, giving a maximum range of 46 points. With all the “stuff” going on in the world, surely the UK market does not need try too hard to find an excuse to actually do something but despite the failure of the FTSE to become interesting, we’re curious about a couple of details which are otherwise unremarked.

Three sectors arouse our immediate interest, the Banking Sector, Major Miners, and Travel & Leisure. All three of these sectors are starting to take a real interest in life, using the time when the FTSE is otherwise asleep to display early signs of considerable hope for the months ahead. For instance, with the banking sector, we already see early suggestions of a justifiable 20% increase across share prices in the weeks ahead. And with the Miners, it’s pretty easy to extrapolate a 12% average rise across sector share prices. With Travel & Leisure we’re slightly less confident, the markets perhaps exercising caution with Covid-19 vaccines but in the event the sector index closes above 9,000 points, we anticipate an initial 15% surge in prices, perhaps over 30% if confidence floods back.

It’s obviously early days, especially as confidence has not yet leaked with sufficient force to nudge the FTSE but perhaps things shall reach a critical mass, moving with enhanced speed once the vaccine program rolls out in early March with under 50’s receiving ‘The Call’ to attend a clinic.

 

As for our popular FTSE for Friday, we’re inclined to some near term alarm, thanks to whatever scared the pants off America on Thursday. With the S&P down 2.5%, the Nasdaq down 3.6% and the Dow Jones experiencing a 1.8% drop, we suspect a bout of nerves shall leach across the Atlantic for Friday, provoking some reversals. At least, until the USA opens for business!

When the USA closed on Thursday, FTSE Futures were at 6588, substantially below the UK markets closing price of 6651 points. As a result, it’s probable the UK shall open solidly down on Friday morning and this presents some major problems.

In the event the FTSE opens below 6607 points, we suspect continued reversals to an initial 6577 points with secondary, if broken, at 6508 and hopefully a bounce.

 

The opposite scenario is quite strange as should the FTSE open above 6607, there’s a chance of some insane and unexpected recovery toward 6650 with secondary 6701 points. It can be safely assumed we don’t expect this as it nudges the UK into a region where we can again discuss the possibility of future movements to 7133 points and above.

 

Have a good weekend, for amusement keep an eye on Scottish Politics (They now have renamed ‘The Crown Office’ to ‘The Clown Office’) and importantly, Formula1 recommences in just 30 days.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:54:48PM	BRENT	66.1	65.59	64.825		66.45	66.57	67.025		65.64	‘cess
11:04:56PM	GOLD	1770.51	1768	1763		1783	1801	1809.5		1785	‘cess
11:07:02PM	FTSE	6601.5	6567	6550		6641	6653	6665.5		6599
11:11:33PM	FRANCE	5727	5714	5674		5767	5770	5793.5		5730	Success
11:14:44PM	GERMANY	13781	13731	13668.5		13851	13860	13913.5		13765	Success
11:17:35PM	US500	3830	3824	3813		3870	3874	3898.5		3834	Shambles
11:23:10PM	DOW	31420	31286	31088.5		31538	31699	31865		31480	Success
11:25:27PM	NASDAQ	12803	12765	12746.5		12915	13055	13151		12880	‘cess
11:27:54PM	JAPAN	29615	29538	29471		29680	29913	30032.5		29712	Shambles

25/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6651 points. Change of -0.11%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,358,793,501 a change of -9.6%

24/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6658 points. Change of 0.5%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,033,846,680 a change of -16.27%

23/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6625 points. Change of 0.2%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,400,811,010 a change of 24.64%

22/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6612 points. Change of -0.18%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,739,937,565 a change of 0.76%

19/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6624 points. Change of 0.11%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,689,261,003 a change of 15.24%

18/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6617 points. Change of -1.39%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,804,629,617 a change of -22.73%

17/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6710 points. Change of -0.56%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,511,824,336 a change of 35.06%