BARRS for 17/07/2019

#SP500 #CAC40 We last reviewed A G Barrs a month ago (link), spending the last week feeling smug at the share prices dance on our 860 drop target. It did break our 860 briefly, hitting an alarming 859p in the process. Was this payback for their lack of sugar in Irn Bru?

There are suspicions the “Profit Warning” was due to Scots panic buying proper Irn Bru, prior to the recipe change to something which, frankly, left a bitter aftertaste. It makes one wonder, if no-one thought to review the Coke Cola experience, when Coke changed the recipe? An insipid 2019 compared with a strong 2018 (doubtless due to fanatical Scots stockpiling) should probably have been expected, if indeed the Profit Warning can truly be attributed to a drop in sales of their primary product.

The situation against Barr’s share price now looks rather risky. Utterly key for the following scenario shall be their share price CLOSING a session below 616p. In fact, intraday traffic below 600p is liable to be a reasonable early warning signal. Such a disaster allows ongoing weakness to 498p initially. If broken, secondary is a probable bottom of 347p which rather neatly matches the lows of 2012.

Of course, there’s doubtless a bean counter at Barr’s who’s about to suggest “Classic Irn Bru” might sell, perhaps at a premium price. Invariably, this will probably be the same person who suggested changing the recipe to avoid the UK Govt sugar tax…

A G Barr needs better RED, presently 775p, to suggest this dip has been a dreadful mistake.

For now, we suspect a trip to 498p is on the cards where it shall hopefully rebound.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:26:57PM	BRENT	64.09									Success
10:29:21PM	GOLD	1406.84									‘cess
10:31:54PM	FTSE	7559.02									Success
10:37:32PM	FRANCE	5603.2	5571	5552	5527	5615	5616	5628	5653	5577	‘cess
10:42:07PM	GERMANY	12417.98									‘cess
10:44:43PM	US500	3002.77	3000	2993.5	2985	3014	3017	3022.5	3030	3006	‘cess
10:49:02PM	DOW	27333
10:51:36PM	NASDAQ	7918.37									Shambles
10:53:52PM	JAPAN	21478									Success

16/07/2019 FTSE Closed at 7577 points. Change of 0.61%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,401,478,176 a change of 12.98%