Kier provide a classic lesson on why to distrust “Rights Issues” as sometimes things go wrong. When only 38% of the issue was taken up, the share price received a pretty thorough kicking, the company eventually kicked out of the prestigious FTSE 250. Things went from bad to worse, the company excavating hitherto depths of negative news, reporting unexpected costs, accounting errors, and of course the classic path to popularity, an occasional “Profits Warning”.
Eventually, the share price stopped falling around 42p in 2020, the period since exhibiting a series of less than impressive bounces. While the price has obviously achieved some recovery, it has not yet exceeded the value of the Rights Issue of 405p. There are, perhaps, signs things shall change in the fairly near term but as we’re discussing the building sector, every thought should be prefixed with a qualifier such as “maybe” or “if”…
There’s certainly something a bit odd going on with the construction sector overall. We’ve long used a chums business – pre-demolition asbestos survey – as a reliable bellwether for the building game. If he’s busy, invariable the construction sector shall do well, logic demanding we believe his activities will signal coming works. But the last year has been quite odd. He’s never been so busy, involved in some seriously large projects for major players but reports he’s now being called out to update previous results, surveys essentially having a “lifespan”. While these secondary surveys are essentially a doddle, his concern is the lack of work taking place on some major projects. Most recently, his company was asked to refresh their results on an old hospital, the building still lying empty and (mostly) untouched following a pre-demolition survey a few years ago. This one will always feature as a “dinner table” story for him, it being the time he bumped into a bunch of military guys who thought they were conducting an exercise in an empty property, running like a bunch of children when he mentioned Asbestos. On their way out, a swarm of Police in riot gear arrived, also planning an exercise in the large empty property. Once again, the word ‘Asbestos’ turned my chum and his team into superhero’s, the fact they were dressed in white anti-contaminant suits with breathing gear adding to the terror.
Now, a couple of years later, the hospital remains standing, though with rather a few damaged internal doors as, once armed with a map of “no go” areas, the uniformed services maximised on their playground.
Currently, Kier are looking hopeful, the share price exceeding the Blue downtrend since 2014 and twitching nervously like a rescued otter pup, afraid to be released back into the wild. We’ve shown a chart extract, illustrating how things are (not) going.
From an immediate perspective, above 264p should indicate the potential for recovery to an initial 281p with our longer term secondary, if exceeded, calculating at 364p. Unfortunately, these ambitions do not take the share price above the Rights Issue 405p, a price level which we think shall become an important trigger for the Big Picture. From our perspective, share price closure ABOVE 364p shall be regarded as a Big Deal, dumping Kier Group into a zone where a long term 1020p actually becomes believable.
This is perhaps worth keeping an eye on as we rarely express the possibility of a 3x gain for a share. We are nervous with this one but the share price is certainly reacting to the long term downtrend. It needs close below 240p to spoil any optimism.
FUTURES
FUTURES
| Time Issued | Market | Price At Issue | Short Entry | Fast Exit | Slow Exit | Stop | Long Entry | Fast Exit | Slow Exit | Stop | Prior |
| 9:51:40PM | BRENT | 8972.2 | ‘cess | ||||||||
| 10:42:11PM | GOLD | 4521.39 | 4442 | 4426 | 4393 | 4476 | 4526 | 4537 | 4564 | 4488 | Success |
| 10:47:19PM | FTSE | 10745 | |||||||||
| 10:50:41PM | STOX50 | 6437.6 | |||||||||
| 10:53:32PM | GERMANY | 26079.3 | |||||||||
| 10:57:57PM | US500 | 7709.2 | 7675 | 7645 | 7630 | 7695 | 7750 | 7781 | 7815 | 7700 | Shambles |
| 11:01:09PM | DOW | 53456.8 | Success | ||||||||
| 11:04:43PM | NASDAQ | 29475.3 | |||||||||
| 11:11:44PM | JAPAN | 66263 | ‘cess |
SUCCESS above means both FAST & SLOW targets were met. ‘CESS means just the FAST target met and probably the next time it is exceeded, movement to the SLOW target shall commence.
Our commentary is in two sections. Immediately below are today’s updated comments. If our commentary remains valid, the share can be found in the bottom section which has a RED heading. Hopefully, this will mean you no longer need to flip back through previous reports. HYPERLINKS DISABLED IN THIS VERSION
Please remember, all prices are mid-price (halfway between the Buy and Sell). When we refer to a price CLOSING above a specific level, we are viewing the point where we can regard a trend as changing. Otherwise, we are simply speculating on near term trading targets. Our website is www.trendsandtargets.com.
UPDATE. We often give an initial and a secondary price. If the initial is exceeded, we still expect it to fall back but the next time the initial is bettered, the price should continue to the secondary. The converse it true with price drops.
We can be contacted at info@trendsandtargets.com. Spam filters set to maximum so only legit emails get through…
Section One – Outlook Updated Today. Click here for Section Two – Outlook Remains Valid shares
Click Epic to jump to share: LSE:BME B & M** **LSE:GENL Genel** **LSE:GKP Gulf Keystone** **LSE:IGG IG Group** **LSE:MRO Melrose** **LSE:ONT Oxford Nanopore Tech** **LSE:QED Quadrise** **LSE:TLW Tullow** **LSE:TRN The Trainline** **
********
Updated charts published on : B & M, Genel, Gulf Keystone, IG Group, Melrose, Oxford Nanopore Tech, Quadrise, Tullow, The Trainline,
LSE:BME B & M. Close Mid-Price: 239.4 Percentage Change: + 0.00% Day High: 239.4 Day Low: 228
If the price of B & M manages to move ABOVE 239.4, initial UP target beco ……..
</p
View Previous B & M & Big Picture ***
LSE:GENL Genel. Close Mid-Price: 69.3 Percentage Change: + 0.00% Day High: 70.2 Day Low: 65
Target met. In the event of GENL share price managing to exceed 70.4 (ple ……..
</p
View Previous Genel & Big Picture ***
LSE:GKP Gulf Keystone. Close Mid-Price: 182.2 Percentage Change: + 0.00% Day High: 184.6 Day Low: 181.8
All Gulf Keystone needs are mid-price trades ABOVE 184.6 to improve accel ……..
</p
View Previous Gulf Keystone & Big Picture ***
LSE:IGG IG Group. Close Mid-Price: 1318 Percentage Change: + 0.00% Day High: 1385 Day Low: 1304
Managing to get the share price BELOW 1,304 is the next problem level for ……..
</p
View Previous IG Group & Big Picture ***
LSE:MRO Melrose. Close Mid-Price: 483.4 Percentage Change: + 0.00% Day High: 495.1 Day Low: 480.4
This is starting to feel worth watching as movement above 500 now points a ……..
</p
View Previous Melrose & Big Picture ***
LSE:ONT Oxford Nanopore Tech. Close Mid-Price: 139.7 Percentage Change: + 0.00% Day High: 142 Day Low: 120.9
Target met. Continued trades against ONT with a mid-price ABOVE 142 shoul ……..
</p
View Previous Oxford Nanopore Tech & Big Picture ***
LSE:QED Quadrise. Close Mid-Price: 0.96 Percentage Change: + 0.00% Day High: 0.982 Day Low: 0.9
Continued weakness against QED taking the price below 0.9 calculates as l ……..
</p
View Previous Quadrise & Big Picture ***
LSE:TLW Tullow. Close Mid-Price: 18.44 Percentage Change: + 0.00% Day High: 18.64 Day Low: 16.9
Target met. If the price of Tullow manages to move ABOVE 18.64, initial U ……..
</p
View Previous Tullow & Big Picture ***
LSE:TRN The Trainline. Close Mid-Price: 208.8 Percentage Change: + 0.00% Day High: 228.4 Day Low: 201.2
Target met. If The Trainline intends to relax, the price needs to get bel ……..
</p
View Previous The Trainline & Big Picture ***
*** End of “Updated Today” comments on shares. Listed below are those where commentary remains valid.
Click Epic to jump to share:LSE:AAL Anglo American** **LSE:AML Aston Martin** **LSE:ASC Asos** **LSE:AV. Aviva** **LSE:AVCT Avacta** **LSE:AZN Astrazeneca** **LSE:BARC Barclays** **LSE:BBY BALFOUR BEATTY** **LSE:BLOE Block Energy PLC** **LSE:BP. BP PLC** **LSE:BT.A British Telecom** **LSE:CAR Carclo** **LSE:CNA Centrica** **LSE:CPI Capita** **LSE:DGE Diageo** **LSE:ECO ECO (Atlantic) O & G** **LSE:EMG MAN** **LSE:EXPN Experian** **LSE:EZJ EasyJet** **LSE:FGP Firstgroup** **LSE:FOXT Foxtons** **LSE:FRES Fresnillo** **LSE:GLEN Glencore Xstra** **LSE:GRG Greggs** **LSE:HIK Hikma** **LSE:HSBA HSBC** **LSE:IAG British Airways** **LSE:IQE IQE** **LSE:ITM ITM Power** **LSE:ITRK Intertek** **LSE:ITV ITV** **LSE:LLOY Lloyds Grp.** **LSE:MKS Marks and Spencer** **LSE:NG. National Glib** **LSE:NWG Natwest** **LSE:OCDO Ocado Plc** **LSE:OXIG Oxford Instruments** **LSE:PHP Primary Health** **LSE:PMG Parkmead** **LSE:RKH Rockhopper** **LSE:RR. Rolls Royce** **LSE:SAGA SAGA Plc** **LSE:SBRY Sainsbury** **LSE:SCLP Scancell** **LSE:SDY Speedyhire** **LSE:SFOR S4 Capital** **LSE:SMT Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust** **LSE:SPX Spirax** **LSE:SRP Serco** **LSE:STAN Standard Chartered** **LSE:STAR Star Energy** **LSE:TERN Tern Plc** **LSE:TSCO Tesco** **LSE:TW. Taylor Wimpey** **LSE:VOD Vodafone** **LSE:ZOO Zoo Digital** **
********
Many thanks for taking the time to read this and good luck for today. Please feel free to mention us after something goes right!
Risk Warning & Notice to Investors
Buying, selling and investing in shares is not without risk. Market and company movement will affect your performance and you may get back less than you invest. Neither Trends and Targets Ltd, Shareprice, or Interactive Investor will be responsible for any losses that may be incurred as a result of following a trading idea.