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At the end of August, our bit of Argyll hosts something called “The Cowal Gathering”, traditionally the final Highland Games of the season. This year, the weather proved excellent, the temperature maxing out at 22.5c and rain staying away, quite literally until the final firework of the ending display was fired. By the time we drove the 8 miles home, it was raining and the temperature had dropped quite dramatically. This is pretty typical, Argyll somehow ensuring September is ushered in with pretty vile weather. Thankfully, we caught a ferry and spent a dry holiday Monday with friends on the mainland where it remained dry and fairly warm, allowing a well lubricated BBQ and a perfect day off until the festive season sneaks up on us.<\/p>\n
The next week should see the markets taking a greater interest in life as folk return from their August break. There has been what we feel will be a significant movement with oil supplies, the US Government now able to express a keen interest in keeping oil prices high. The “problem” for the rest of the world is the US Government has taken direct control of 1\/5th of Venezuela’s oil production. As a result, high oil prices will produce direct income for the USA Government, this making us wonder if the fresh strikes against Iran are designed to increase tensions, along with increased prices of Crude Oil. Even the oil major companies have raised eyebrows over this initiative as they’d never expected to find themselves in direct competition with the US Government.<\/p>\n
Once again, we are living in strange times.<\/p>\n
As for Natwest, from an immediate perspective, we calculate their share price currently needs exceed 720p to suggest the retail bank is about to exhibit its own fireworks display. Above such a trigger level should produce movements to an initial 750p with our longer term secondary, if exceeded, at 893p.<\/p>\n
If things intend go wrong for Natwest, below 636p looks like it shall prove dangerous, perhaps capable of driving the price down to an initial 598p and visually, a strong suggestion for a bounce. Share price closure below 598p would be regarded as a bad thing, working out with a secondary objective at 544p and a lack of confidence for a rebound. This would be due to the Big Picture giving a visually unlikely 443p as possible, this aided by a firm hint the retail bank has returned to doing retail bank things, ruining the hopes of investors.<\/p>\n
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