![](\"https:\/\/www.trendsandtargets.com\/img\/kie200826.jpg\")
<\/span><\/p>\nFUTURES<\/p>\n
\n
FUTURES<\/p>\n
Kier provide a classic lesson on why to distrust “Rights Issues” as sometimes things go wrong. When only 38% of the issue was taken up, the share price received a pretty thorough kicking, the company eventually kicked out of the prestigious FTSE 250. Things went from bad to worse, the company excavating hitherto depths of negative news, reporting unexpected costs, accounting errors, and of course the classic path to popularity, an occasional “Profits Warning”.<\/p>\n
Eventually, the share price stopped falling around 42p in 2020, the period since exhibiting a series of less than impressive bounces. While the price has obviously achieved some recovery, it has not yet exceeded the value of the Rights Issue of 405p. There are, perhaps, signs things shall change in the fairly near term but as we’re discussing the building sector, every thought should be prefixed with a qualifier such as “maybe” or “if”…<\/p>\n
There’s certainly something a bit odd going on with the construction sector overall. We’ve long used a chums business – pre-demolition asbestos survey – as a reliable bellwether for the building game. If he’s busy, invariable the construction sector shall do well, logic demanding we believe his activities will signal coming works. But the last year has been quite odd. He’s never been so busy, involved in some seriously large projects for major players but reports he’s now being called out to update previous results, surveys essentially having a “lifespan”. While these secondary surveys are essentially a doddle, his concern is the lack of work taking place on some major projects. Most recently, his company was asked to refresh their results on an old hospital, the building still lying empty and (mostly) untouched following a pre-demolition survey a few years ago. This one will always feature as a “dinner table” story for him, it being the time he bumped into a bunch of military guys who thought they were conducting an exercise in an empty property, running like a bunch of children when he mentioned Asbestos. On their way out, a swarm of Police in riot gear arrived, also planning an exercise in the large empty property. Once again, the word ‘Asbestos’ turned my chum and his team into superhero’s, the fact they were dressed in white anti-contaminant suits with breathing gear adding to the terror.<\/p>\n
Now, a couple of years later, the hospital remains standing, though with rather a few damaged internal doors as, once armed with a map of “no go” areas, the uniformed services maximised on their playground.<\/p>\n
Currently, Kier are looking hopeful, the share price exceeding the Blue downtrend since 2014 and twitching nervously like a rescued otter pup, afraid to be released back into the wild. We’ve shown a chart extract, illustrating how things are (not) going.<\/p>\n
From an immediate perspective, above 264p should indicate the potential for recovery to an initial 281p with our longer term secondary, if exceeded, calculating at 364p. Unfortunately, these ambitions do not take the share price above the Rights Issue 405p, a price level which we think shall become an important trigger for the Big Picture. From our perspective, share price closure ABOVE 364p shall be regarded as a Big Deal, dumping Kier Group into a zone where a long term 1020p actually becomes believable.<\/p>\n
This is perhaps worth keeping an eye on as we rarely express the possibility of a 3x gain for a share. We are nervous with this one but the share price is certainly reacting to the long term downtrend. It needs close below 240p to spoil any optimism.<\/p>\n
FUTURES<\/p>\n FUTURES<\/p>\n<\/span><\/p>\n
\n
![](\"https:\/\/www.trendsandtargets.com\/images\/specialoffer.gif\")
<\/a><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n