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Last week, we dwelled extensively on the difference between a closing price of 10,910 points and 10,908 points. To most sane folk, the two levels are effectively identical but with the FTSE spending the last week carefully avoiding CLOSING a day above 10,910 points – the market high from February this year! – with exquisite care given to respect the FTSE trigger level. As the candles show on the chart extract, despite plenty if intraday forays above the Green closing price line, the FTSE has proven unable to break free upward.<\/p>\n
Once again, the importance of Closing Prices is being illustrated, it being a frequent truism to “really” break free of a trend, only a ‘Higher High’ closing price dare be thought of as the only safe signal. Though, of course, there is no such thing as “safe” when discussing the stock markets, either indices, commodities, or share prices. When examining near term movements, it’s obviously virtually impossible to use closing prices but for the FTSE, it certainly appears as if movement next above 10,952 points should bring a visit to an initial 11,017 points with our secondary, if exceeded, working out at 11,088 points. If triggered, the tightest stop loss level appears to be 10,894 points, a bit wide but does reflect the potential for the number of points gained.<\/p>\n
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In the interests of balance, we’re able to provide an alternate scenario while we impatiently count down the days until the next Grand Prix (just 2 weeks). The situation is a bit wobbly, suggesting FTSE movement below 10,830 points risks triggering reversal down to an initial 10,751 points with our secondary, if broken, a very probable market bottom at 10,721 points. Our visual suspicion with these dance steps will be a belief the UK is indeed “parking” the index, while the grown ups from the market enjoy Benidorm, Butlins, or Blackpool… Meanwhile, the FTSE should be “trapped” between 10,750 and around 10,900 points.<\/p>\n
There’s one really unexpected side effect of living in Argyll. We’ve not actually taken a conventional holiday for years. Despite whinging about the foul weather, at the drop of a cliche, we can take a day trip to really nice beach destinations, canoe down the river and paddle along the sea shore to our house, even go skiing in winter with Glencoe around an hour away. Or more often, just spent time mucking around varied projects in the back garden or forest. Talking to other folk from the area, it seems very few people bother going on holiday in any conventional sense.<\/p>\n
Have a good weekend.<\/p>\n
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