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#GOLD #FTSE Once upon a time, there was a company called Xstrata\/ We liked them, their share price movements making a lot of sense from our perspective, and one day they were gobbled up by Glencore. The emergent company had a share price which made little sense, movements only starting to fit our logic once they ditched the link with Xstrata in their name. Now, with Glencore and Rio Tinto talking about a megamerger, things allegedly should be confident for Glencore’s share price.<\/p>\n
Unfortunately, in what seems the majority of cases where a merger takes place in the public eye, it’s unusual for share prices to do what used to happen in the old days (ie; run amok)<\/p>\n
From the perspective of signs which generally presage share positive share price movements, since October last year, Glencore has luxuriated in them. Firstly, we saw the price exceed 358p in October, exceeding the level of trend break in February 2025 and giving what’s generally a pretty solid suggestion happy days were coming. Secondly, at the end of December last year, the share price rejoined the Red uptrend since 2020.in something we generally regard as a copper bottomed reason to anticipate growth. And finally, at the start of this year, the share price exploded above the Blue downtrend since 2023. completing a triumvirate of signals which, believe it or not, collectively pointed to a Big Picture potential lurking at a distant 765p ambition for the share price.<\/p>\n
Is it going to happen?<\/p>\n
We think not, simply do a suspicion share holders will be excluded from any abnormal financial benefits due to a merger. For reasons which escape us, it seems the prevailing mood in the market is for shareholders to accept the annual dividend, enjoy the raptures of price movements which echo the overall market, and be good little boys, leaving “corporate” to do its thing.<\/p>\n
We shall certainly know soon enough as any one of the three positive signals we highlight should create a situation, where movements above 470p should now promote price nods in the direction of an initial 510p with our secondary, if bettered, at 571p and the visual prospect of some market hesitation.<\/p>\n
Should things intend go wrong for Glencore, below 400 will certainly tick a fairly major box, pointing at the risk of reversal to an initial 360 with our secondary, if broken, a bottom at 279p.<\/p>\n
For now, the best we fear will be an attempt shy of the 571p level. Only closure above such a point will justify a little bit of drool, when dreaming of our future calculation at 765.<\/p>\n
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