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FUTURES<\/p>\n
#FTSE #WallSt <\/b>\u00a0Our pessimistic outlook for the market, in the event of an interest rate cut by the Bank of England, proved not to be a wasted emotion, the FTSE indeed doing the opposite of what was expected.\u00a0 An upward spike at the open to 8405 was paid back in full by subsequent reversals to 8268 and a potential bounce. To be honest, we suspect Friday shall provide some gains for the FTSE, hopefully NOT with an artificial spike upward in the opening seconds.<\/p>\n
We think there was very real uncertainty about “what to do” in the early hours of Thursday, several companies showing quite different Futures values for various markets. This created a situation, where we felt it unwise to provide Short potentials across the FTSE or European markets, while the USA proved impossible to predict with any degree of confidence. Maybe it’s been such a long time, the markets are forgetting what they do when faced with a sure thing!<\/p>\n
Friday 2nd August expects the US to provide their Payrolls numbers at 1.30pm UK time. Given the majority of states numbers will be guesstimates, due to the proximity to the start of the month, it’s almost inevitable the collated reports shall show more than 175,000 jobs created, this being the estimated number by analysts. Exceeding such a target will cause the markets to spike, the FTSE usually opting to follow along, and we’ve come to expect “estimates” always to be optimistically wrong. When the real numbers are drip fed in the coming week, we expect the markets will experience a series of reversals.<\/p>\n
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It certainly looks like the FTSE has decided to abandon the previous median level of 8200 points, probably heading upward to another parking level for the month of August until mid-September by which time the big players will all have returned from their Centre Parks holidays. Routinely, here in Argyll, we joke about tourist numbers but this year it’s becoming unusual to hear a Scottish accent, event when out with the pets. A favourite walk revealed a family who’d taken quite a lot of effort to move themselves, their picnic furniture, their children, to a low water pebble island which has appeared in the middle of a river. Feeling mildly sorry for the invaders, I pointed out there was a completely empty, pristine sandy beach on the shore, just around the next bend in the river. My Golden Retriever, after ascertaining no food was available to steal, continued her walk up the middle of the river, still refusing to come out. She thinks it’s funny but, when we reverse course, she’s capable of pretending to swim fast with the current behind her.<\/p>\n
As for Friday, the FTSE is showing some quite interesting potentials. If we are correct in our supposition the forced reversal to 8268 points on Thursday should now be rewarded with some upward travel, next above 8321 points should prove capable of a lift to an initial 8380 points with our secondary, if bettered, calculating at an impressive 8468 points. This creates a montage, of higher highs, meaning we shall view a long term 8604 points as creating an influence. If triggered, the tightest stop looks like a massive 8230, perhaps confirming an illusion the index is about to be “trapped” in a zone between 8200 and 8600 points.<\/p>\n
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If things intend go horribly wrong, below 8268 could be dangerous, presenting the scenario of reversal to an initial 8209 with our secondary, if broken, at 8139 points.<\/p>\n
Have a good weekend, even though Formula1 is on holiday.<\/p>\n
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