Author: T&T Staff

#Brent #US500 Life’s a funny old thing. When we last reviewed Germany back in October (link) we gave criteria defining 13,650 as a major point of interest for the index, something the market achieved and bettered during February. The odd thing, when we give these secondary targets, we tend anticipate a bit of hesitation at the price level, generally some volatility or stutters.

The DAX, of course, paid lip service to the concept of hesitation, choosing instead to fall by 1,200 points over three sessions. Some say it was something to do with pandemic fears and nothing at all to do with our 13,650 level…

In reality, our price levels generally justify a little volatility and (unless some positive or negative news makes itself known) the volatility will be fairly minor. We saw this today with the FTSE as our initial target level was 6999 points. As the chart below highlights, the index hit our initial target, bounced around above and below for a while, then on the 3rd break upward, continued to our secondary target. This tends be the important thing with price levels. Mostly they pass virtually un-noticed unless someone throws a cat among the pigeons.

Unfortunately, the DAX found itself primed for a ruddy great cat incident!

The situation with Germany is now a little strange. If we concentrate on reversal potentials, it appears weakness next below 12,368 should attack a bottom of 12,152 and hopefully generate a bounce. We actually have some doubts, thanks to the effort employed on Wednesday to force a bounce. It almost felt like “they” didn’t want the market to fall further.

Instead, the immediate situation suggests recovery above 12,850 should bring a visit to 13,034 next. If bettered, we’d regard it entering a cycle back up to 13,650 as secondary again, utterly confusing us, why is this level so important?

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:27:45PM	BRENT	52.85	52.38	52.135	49.63	54.7	54.82	55.86	57.02	53.94	Success
10:29:38PM	GOLD	1641.62
10:34:29PM	FTSE	6907.24									Shambles
10:40:31PM	FRANCE	5600.2									Shambles
10:43:52PM	GERMANY	12542									Success
10:45:45PM	US500	3102.07	3090	3071	3034	3135	3154	3169	3193	3121	Shambles
10:48:59PM	DOW	26872.7									Success
10:51:25PM	NASDAQ	8826.79									‘cess
10:53:43PM	JAPAN	22191									‘cess

 

 

26/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7042 points. Change of 0.36%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,595,554,712 a change of -16.85%

25/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7017 points. Change of -1.94%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,932,387,742 a change of 6.36%

24/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7156 points. Change of -3.34%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,457,826,437 a change of 17.05%

21/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7403 points. Change of -0.44%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,371,450,688 a change of 1.87%

20/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7436 points. Change of -0.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,254,655,479 a change of 11.64%

19/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7457 points. Change of 1.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,602,530,865 a change of -6.87%

18/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7362 points. Change of -0.96%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,015,855,072 a change of 44.99%

#Nasdaq #SP500 With a few UK stocks going ballistic due to China Virus activity, a glance at the US highlights a couple of shares enjoying time in the medical spotlight. #Moderna & #Cocrystal both deserve some examination, along with a reminder prices which go up fast can equally reverse with greater brutality.

In plain English, we’re focused on the numbers but remember checking out some fundamentals makes a lot of sense.

Moderna, at time of writing 24.5, has been quite encouraging, the share price needing trading beyond 26.6 dollars to enter a near term cycle to 29.29 dollars. If bettered, secondary calculates at 31.03 dollars though, to be fair, any enthusiastic publicity feels capable of driving the price to 36 dollars. We cannot calculate higher.

Visually, the proximity of our initial two target levels tends suggest the possibility of some hesitation around the 30 dollar mark. Any reversal needs break RED (currently 18) on the chart to justify hysterics, along with the risk of reversal to 9.95 and hopefully a rebound.

Cocrystal Pharma, presently 2.15, looks very capable of some excitement with trades now above 2.5 dollars as growth to an initial 3.69 appears possible. In the event this level is exceeded, our secondary calculates at an amazing (and therefore questionable) 5.46. Our in-house cautious nature makes us hesitant, when describing a scenario allowing a price to more than double but such is the nature of the current panic, it’d be churlish not to admit this possibility.

The price would require to slip below Blue, presently 1.45, to suggest an alternative investment in running shoes!

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:33:22PM	BRENT	54.28									‘cess
9:35:59PM	GOLD	1635.07									Success
9:41:41PM	FTSE	6951.4									Success
9:50:11PM	FRANCE	5603.7									Shambles
10:29:52PM	GERMANY	12649									Success
10:34:34PM	US500	3135.02	3132	3123	3032	3157	3167	3186	3196	3122	Success
10:38:13PM	DOW	27170									Success
10:42:30PM	NASDAQ	8858	8802	8740	8374	8930	8929	9004.5	9072	8836	Success
10:49:11PM	JAPAN	22138									Shambles

 

 

25/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7017 points. Change of -1.94%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,932,387,742 a change of 6.36%

24/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7156 points. Change of -3.34%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,457,826,437 a change of 17.05%

21/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7403 points. Change of -0.44%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,371,450,688 a change of 1.87%

20/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7436 points. Change of -0.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,254,655,479 a change of 11.64%

19/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7457 points. Change of 1.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,602,530,865 a change of -6.87%

18/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7362 points. Change of -0.96%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,015,855,072 a change of 44.99%

17/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7433 points. Change of 0.32%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,149,027,770 a change of -24.37%

#Gold #SP500 As we snuffle through the cold & flu season, it was interesting to note those shares which proved resilient, despite market wide hysteria apparently prompted by Coronavirus. We covered #Faron last November (link) and their share price has managed the opposite of catching a cold. Equally fascinating, reading “the common cold” is just one of the grouping covered by the word coronavirus, a respiratory term!

Of course, this means the current outbreak of sniffles in our part of Scotland is now described by schoolchildren as “coronavirus”, wanting face masks and preferably some time off school too…

A quick glance at Faron’s update on 6th Feb gives a potential reason for their current flamboyant share price, the word “coronavirus” popping up in the 3rd paragraph, attracting interest like politicians round a photo opportunity.

From the point at which the share closed (320p), we can calculate 396p as possible on the current cycle with secondary, if exceeded, coming in at 416p. Obviously, the proximity of these numbers tends suggest the potential of some stutters making themselves known. Longer term, we can even calculate 559p as possible but, to be fair, we’re on a bit of a wing and a prayer with such a price level.

Presently, the price needs break Red on the chart to spoil enthusiasm, this innocent line presently at 222p. Moves below risk a challenge of 180p with secondary, if broken, down at 51p.

We mentioned recently the dangers of wild price swings, making stop loss levels almost impossible on flamboyant shares. We need to mention, politely, the unpleasant reality of Faron as the share price is currently trending in a zone with “bottom” at 220p. It will not approach long term safety until the price manages exceed Blue on the chart.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:27:59PM	BRENT	55.74									Success
10:36:21PM	GOLD	1660.22	1651	1642	1626	1672	1690	1703.75	1720	1672	Success
10:39:37PM	FTSE	7129									Success
10:42:18PM	FRANCE	5754.2									Shambles
10:52:42PM	GERMANY	12993									Success
10:57:18PM	US500	3228.42	3210	3183	3173	3254	3266	3283.5	3307	3224	Shambles
11:01:21PM	DOW	27975									Success
11:05:39PM	NASDAQ	9079.24									Shambles
11:09:27PM	JAPAN	22287									‘cess

 

24/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7156 points. Change of -3.34%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,457,826,437 a change of 17.05%

21/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7403 points. Change of -0.44%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,371,450,688 a change of 1.87%

20/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7436 points. Change of -0.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,254,655,479 a change of 11.64%

19/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7457 points. Change of 1.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,602,530,865 a change of -6.87%

18/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7362 points. Change of -0.96%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,015,855,072 a change of 44.99%

17/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7433 points. Change of 0.32%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,149,027,770 a change of -24.37%

14/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7409 points. Change of -0.58%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,485,879,910 a change of -17.68%

#Brent #Dax Starting the week with a couple of shares featured in our emails couldn’t produce two utterly different trade histories. Unilever, currently a boring 46 quid and Novacyt showing a vibrant 106p. Despite our previous glance at Novacyt forcing us to admit would couldn’t calculate beyond 124p, the share price cheerfully ignored all our sums, managing to spend a couple of sessions at nearly 220p.

One side effect of this buoyant behaviour is to allow some wild price swings, making the concept of a “stop loss” virtually impossible. At time of writing, NCYT are trading around 106p, needing above just 114p to apparently trigger movements toward an initial 137p. If exceeded, secondary is a visually pleasing 161p though, to be honest, if the company produce positive news (or internet chat rooms provoke positive vibes) the share price could now attempt 229p.

Unfortunately, there’s another side to this optimism. The price only needs below 62p to enter a cycle with a bottom (hopefully) at 39p. We cannot calculate below such a level.

Unilever  With a growth curve which is rather more conventional than Novacyt’s, Unilever is no less spectacular and it seems a few folk invested since the lows of 2009 are starting to question if it’s the time to take some profit. Perhaps it was the blip below the uptrend on July 8th giving slight concern?

All to often, this sort of signal (circled) does provide early warning for trouble ahead but sometimes, it can ‘simply’ be the case of the market opting to capture a short position prior to a near term rise. After all, the market is in business to make money and is never charitable!

However, our take on the blip downward suggests it wasn’t a warning of evil times ahead, instead it appears more possible movement next above 4730 shall see the share price rise to 5033p. If bettered, our secondary calculation comes in at 5471p and a new all time high.

Visually, an attempt at the 50 quid level is believable but we suspect the secondary of 5471p shall need positive FTSE100 conditions to make it a reality.

If trouble is planned, now below 4310 shall give ample cause for concern, taking the price into a region where an initial drop to 3786 is expected. If broken, secondary calculates at a less likely bottom of 2604p.

In summary, we’re inclined to believe 50 quid as possible on the immediate trading cycle but suspect beyond such a level will be difficult, at least until the Brexit hiatus is complete.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
2:22:54PM	BRENT	58	57.32	56.9	55.98	58.19	58.63	59.06	59.64	58	Success
2:36:00PM	GOLD	1643.71									Success
2:39:05PM	FTSE	7410									Success
2:41:14PM	FRANCE	6021.2									Success
2:55:28PM	GERMANY	13563	13496	13464	13386	13586	13690	13754	13840	13610	Success
6:05:19PM	US500	3338.67									‘cess
6:12:34PM	DOW	28999.7
6:15:02PM	NASDAQ	9447.62									Success
6:20:51PM	JAPAN	23209									Success

 

 

21/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7403 points. Change of -0.44%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,371,450,688 a change of 1.87%

20/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7436 points. Change of -0.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,254,655,479 a change of 11.64%

19/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7457 points. Change of 1.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,602,530,865 a change of -6.87%

18/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7362 points. Change of -0.96%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,015,855,072 a change of 44.99%

17/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7433 points. Change of 0.32%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,149,027,770 a change of -24.37%

14/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7409 points. Change of -0.58%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,485,879,910 a change of -17.68%

13/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7452 points. Change of -1.09%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,664,066,181 a change of 30.17%

#FTSE #DOW #SP500 #DAX The period since the Brexit vote has proven quite stagnant from a FTSE perspective. Essentially, the market has produced a horizontal line at 7,215 points, moving above, moving below, but generally staggering back to the flat line. Thus far, every attempt to break this hiatus has failed, the UK index requiring movement above 7,850 to give a realistic signal for coming real growth. We can calculate an initial 7,950 with secondary at 8,200 points.

Alternately, weakness below 7,070 will probably give early warning for an iceberg ahead, taking the market into a zone with 5,850 looking like an attractive drop target!

Our usual rules, when this sort of nonsense appears, tell us to judge matters from a Big Picture perspective. Given this excruciatingly boring period commenced with an all time high on the FTSE, the suggestion is to expect the best. Therefore, if we treat the FTSE in a similar fashion to a share, apparently 8,200 has become a believable ambition! Time will tell.

Closer to home, the final 30 minutes of trade on Thursday saw the FTSE experience a near 50 point reversal, giving an otherwise lacklustre day a pretty solid kicking. It has created the situation where weakness continuing below 7442 points (Not as an opening second drop spike!) could generate traffic down to an initial 7417 points. If broken, secondary comes in at 7375 points.

However, if the drop was as contrived as it felt, more probable appears to be strength beyond 7470 leading to an initial 7492 points. If exceeded, secondary calculates at 7512 points. Balancing this, recently Fridays tend to be pretty useless and we’ll not be surprised to witness a bounce at 7417 points anyway.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:18:37PM	BRENT	58.6	58.6	58.215		59.34	59.68	59.98		58.6	‘cess
10:20:31PM	GOLD	1620.06	1613	1610.5		1621	1624	1629		1616	‘cess
10:23:03PM	FTSE	7450.79	7420	7403		7462	7481	7499.5			Shambles
10:24:32PM	FRANCE	6085.7	6054	6044		6104	6110	6129.5		6084	‘cess
10:27:21PM	GERMANY	13712.46	13645	13612		13713	13783	13806		13734	Shambles
10:29:26PM	US500	3367.97	3347	3334		3368	3388	3392.5		3373	Success
10:32:12PM	DOW	29177	29011	28875.5		29201	29236	29325		29125	Success
10:34:01PM	NASDAQ	9613	9536	9528		9593	9733	9821		9671	Success
10:37:04PM	JAPAN	23492	23410	23291.5		23516	23673	23796.5		23520

 

20/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7436 points. Change of -0.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,254,655,479 a change of 11.64%

19/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7457 points. Change of 1.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,602,530,865 a change of -6.87%

18/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7362 points. Change of -0.96%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,015,855,072 a change of 44.99%

17/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7433 points. Change of 0.32%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,149,027,770 a change of -24.37%

14/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7409 points. Change of -0.58%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,485,879,910 a change of -17.68%

13/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7452 points. Change of -1.09%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,664,066,181 a change of 30.17%

12/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7534 points. Change of 0.47%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,119,461,685 a change of -10.2%

 

#DAX #JAPAN News that RBS are ditching their “toxic” name outside Scotland, rebranding as NatWest, really isn’t a surprise. Generally, when a large organisation is in trouble, they’ll consolidate shares, mess with their advertising, fuss with their logo, or as a last ditch throw of the dice, change their name.

At time of writing, RBS is trading at 206p ( that’s 20.6p in pre-consolidation terms ) and it certainly looks clear the market failed to fall for their wizard wheeze of a 10:1 share ploy to make the value of RBS shares sound more respectable. To be fair, RBS are not the only retail bank with a lousy share price history. Lloyds for instance enjoyed a low of 34 in 2009 and is now trading at 55.78. Barclays hit 53p in 2009 and now, eleven years later, is trading at 176.

In fact, RBS with their low of 9.8p is doing slightly better than Lloyds, presently more than double their price when the sector crashed. But in comparison to most other shares in the FTSE 100, banking sector shares are about as popular as Laura Ashley.

The immediate situation for RBS is a bit fragrant with weakness next below 205 indicating the potential of travel down to 189p next. If broken, secondary calculates at 171p and we’d expect a rebound from such a level. The share price will require to close below 171p to justify running for the hills as it will take RBS into a region where “bottom” works out at 114p. We cannot calculate below such a point.

The funny thing, despite the share breaking below our last drop target of 208p, we shall be a little curious in the days ahead. The price only need exceed 217p to enter a cycle toward 227p next. If bettered, secondary is 237 but realistically, if positive news or market conditions are behind a rise, the price could easily accelerate to 252p.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:04:13PM	BRENT	58.98									Success
10:07:05PM	GOLD	1612.32									Success
10:10:28PM	FTSE	7458.81									Success
10:11:53PM	FRANCE	6101.2									‘cess
10:30:33PM	GERMANY	13780	13708	13675	13637	13758	13789	13801.75	13823	13743	‘cess
10:33:18PM	US500	3388.52									‘cess
10:35:07PM	DOW	29358
10:37:33PM	NASDAQ	9725									Success
10:39:44PM	JAPAN	23592	23341	23191	23029	23432	23682	23747.5	23967	23510	Success

 

19/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7457 points. Change of 1.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,602,530,865 a change of -6.87%

18/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7362 points. Change of -0.96%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,015,855,072 a change of 44.99%

17/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7433 points. Change of 0.32%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,149,027,770 a change of -24.37%

14/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7409 points. Change of -0.58%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,485,879,910 a change of -17.68%

13/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7452 points. Change of -1.09%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,664,066,181 a change of 30.17%

12/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7534 points. Change of 0.47%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,119,461,685 a change of -10.2%

11/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7499 points. Change of 0.71%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,701,269,309 a change of 0.17%

#FTSE #Nasdaq For many private investors, this lot must feel like watching a Party Political Broadcast, prompting the question of ‘how long can this agony last?’ Last reviewed in July last year (link) we’d proposed a bottom of 178p. It successfully hit this target on Tuesday. The big question now, will it bounce?

Visually, GKP needs above 197p at present to exceed Blue on the chart, entering a zone where some proper price recovery becomes possible. Such a miracle calculates with an initial, meagre, ambition at 201p with secondary, if exceeded, a more useful 220p. While the visuals suggest a glass ceiling can be expected at 220p, closure above such a level allows for a longer term 251p. Beyond such a level, we shall need stir the tea leaves again as the path to such a significant level will require scrutiny.

Unfortunately, it feels more likely 178p shall break anytime soon, provoking weakness next to an initial 170p with secondary, if broken, down at 153p. We’d hope the calculation of a potential 153p shall prove incorrect as this will take the price below the dip at the end of 2018, solidly in a zone where negative news could swiftly drive 125 or below.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:12:28PM	BRENT	57.48									‘cess
10:15:06PM	GOLD	1602.67									Success
10:17:29PM	FTSE	7403.44	7350	7312	7229	7423	7407	7429.5	7456	7367	‘cess
10:19:37PM	FRANCE	6071.7									‘cess
10:26:12PM	GERMANY	13708									Success
10:28:48PM	US500	3371.47									Success
10:31:11PM	DOW	29241									Success
10:33:47PM	NASDAQ	9632.22	9525	9514.5	9479	9570	9647	9667	9713	9570	Success
10:37:05PM	JAPAN	23205									Success

18/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7362 points. Change of -0.96%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,015,855,072 a change of 44.99%

17/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7433 points. Change of 0.32%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,149,027,770 a change of -24.37%

14/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7409 points. Change of -0.58%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,485,879,910 a change of -17.68%

13/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7452 points. Change of -1.09%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,664,066,181 a change of 30.17%

12/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7534 points. Change of 0.47%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,119,461,685 a change of -10.2%

11/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7499 points. Change of 0.71%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,701,269,309 a change of 0.17%

10/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7446 points. Change of -0.27%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,691,847,581 a change of -12.91%