Month: January 2020

#Brent #DAX When the US President, Mr Trump, recently moaned about the poor quality of modern toilet flushes, there was a definite “hold on a minute” in-house as we’d made an identical comment, one alas ignored by the worlds media. It was June last year (link) and an article about Kingfisher (aka B&Q), along with the reasons their share price was going to flush itself down to 184p.

We were correct about modern toilets and their illusory water savings and oh, yes, we were also correct about 184p as a rebound level.

Importantly, our 184p drop ambition was not breached, this giving the hope the current (somewhat moderate) rebound shall prove to have some integrity. The immediate situation suggests above 230p should now aim for an initial 240p with secondary, if bettered, calculating at a longer term 267p. Visually, it appears any rise risks foundering at the 267p as there’s little doubt a glass ceiling awaits at such a level.

That’s about the end of any positive spin on this story as we’re nervous at the slavish attention being paid to the downtrend since 2018. It has created the situation, where weakness now below the trend (208 presently) signals the prospect of reversal to an initial 197p with secondary, when broken, down at 175p. The secondary level scares us more than a modern WC as it takes the price into a region with 141p as “bottom”.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
7:52:28PM	BRENT	64.77	64.51	64.08	63.13	65.76	65.76	66.145	66.75	64.57
7:54:52PM	GOLD	1562.49
8:08:11PM	FTSE	7570.69									Shambles
8:29:00PM	FRANCE	6017
9:48:39PM	GERMANY	13447.65	13430	13413	13379	13519	13555	13628	13688	13433
10:20:41PM	US500	3263.42									Shambles
10:23:09PM	DOW	28806									‘cess
10:35:22PM	NASDAQ	8962.12									‘cess
10:37:34PM	JAPAN	23684									‘cess

 

10/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7587 points. Change of -0.14%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,210,689,793 a change of -8.73%

9/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7598 points. Change of 0.32%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,708,798,775 a change of 5.62%

8/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7574 points. Change of 0.01%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,404,992,564 a change of 14%

7/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7573 points. Change of -0.03%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,741,303,337 a change of 0.44%

6/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7575 points. Change of -0.62%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,720,635,792 a change of 20.67%

3/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7622 points. Change of -100%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,912,167,844 a change of 0%

30/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7587 points. Change of 0%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,213,676,764 a change of 0%

#FTSE #DOW #GOLD By any standards, this has been a strange week. A combination of the markets, still not approaching decent trading volumes, along with this weeks “Iran” headlines, gave a media impression the markets faces a meltdown. Quite the converse has happened. The FTSE wants to reach 7,850 allegedly!

However, it’s worth remembering (as if anyone could forget) this is January, traditionally a month packed full of contrary behaviour. A month, topped off with The World Economic Forum (aka Ski Trip) in Davos which often witnesses a dip in world markets prior to a surprise surge around the Davos event and all sorts of exhuberance during China’s week long New Year holiday. What has surprised (so far), events in Iran appeared to be providing a reasonable excuse for market reversal prior to the month end and Davos. Instead, we’ve seen a series of pretty average days this week, followed by a Thursday which almost felt exuberant at times.

So, what’s ahead for Friday?

Below 7,591 looks fairly troubling, apparently capable of reversal to an initial 7,568 points. If broken, secondary calculates at 7,557 points and this gets troubling, taking the UK index into a region where very little excuse is needed to crash it down to the 7,500 level. If triggered, tightest stop is at 7,620 points.

The alternate scenario looks at the possibility of London trading above 7,634 points. Such a scenario apparently expects some growth to an initial 7,661 points. If exceeded, secondary on the immediate cycle calculates at 7,682 points. Visually, the initial target makes sense but the jury is out on the secondary, despite the longer term attraction from 7,850.

Despite this being the first complete week of 2020, market volumes are still rather low. Hopefully next week witnesses some real flamboyance on the market.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:03:49PM	BRENT	65.13	64.3	63.67		65.78	66.15	66.545		64.96
10:06:07PM	GOLD	1552.81	1544	1539		1559	1561	1565		1551	‘cess
10:08:04PM	FTSE	7618.39	7566	7553.5		7618	7627	7635		7566
10:10:12PM	FRANCE	6050	6006	5980.5		6035	6071	6078		6011
10:21:58PM	GERMANY	13510.75	13382	13362.5		13514	13520	13536		13450	‘cess
10:25:21PM	US500	3275.02	3261	3258.5		3274	3277	3288		3255	‘cess
10:32:06PM	DOW	28961	28820	28755.5		28970	28985	29026		28832	Success
10:33:51PM	NASDAQ	8994.62	8914	8900		8977	9005	9026.75		8914	Success
10:36:48PM	JAPAN	23774	23632	23600.5		23786	23786	23809		23660	‘cess

 

9/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7598 points. Change of 0.32%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,708,798,775 a change of 5.62%

8/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7574 points. Change of 0.01%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,404,992,564 a change of 14%

7/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7573 points. Change of -0.03%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,741,303,337 a change of 0.44%

6/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7575 points. Change of -0.62%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,720,635,792 a change of 20.67%

3/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7622 points. Change of -100%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,912,167,844 a change of 0%

30/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7587 points. Change of 0%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,213,676,764 a change of 0%

#France #SP500 When we last reviewed #Bitcoin in November, we suggested the possibility of a bottom at 5920. Amazingly, the crypto is on the verge of utterly nonsensing the prospect as it tries to mimic Gold as a “safe haven” for a nervous market. Thus far, we’re surprised at the lack of hysterics in wider markets, starting to suspect whether “the Iran Thing” is being taken seriously.

Gold, for instance, despite popping up to say ‘Hi’ to 1,611 is starting to show alarming signs of reversal. At time of writing, it’s trading around 1,560, signalling the potential of a bottom around 1,527 dollars. In fact, a true loss of fear against Middle East events could swiftly permit a meltdown to the 1,500 dollar level.

Therefore, despite the usual informed pundits jumping on the bandwagon and pulling target levels from nowhere, promising Bitcoin will doubtless head up to insane levels, we’ve pretty severe doubts. Visually, the chart gives some immediate problems. There’s a downtrend in Blue which appears to be provoking immediate reversal. In addition, there’s the uptrend in Red which also is presenting some sort of wall to fend of price rises.

Our computer claims, should Bitcoin now trade beyond 8470, we should anticipate travel up to an initial 8952 dollars. If exceeded, secondary calculates at 9130 dollars. The close proximity of both target levels suggest some sort of hesitation should be expected, if they actually make an appearance.

The alternate, reversal, scenario starts to look more likely. Weakness now below 7850 could swiftly drive the price downhill to an initial 7550 dollars. If broken, it should hopefully bottom by the 7050 dollar level.

No-one ever said Bitcoin is easy!

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:03:53PM	BRENT	65.71									Success
10:05:36PM	GOLD	1557.03									Success
10:26:46PM	FTSE	7598.1									Shambles
10:30:02PM	FRANCE	6041.7	5991	5967.5	5936	6049	6062	6089	6129	6000
10:33:08PM	GERMANY	13388									Success
10:35:48PM	US500	3259.57	3221	3205.5	3185	3246	3267	3271	3284	3235	Success
10:38:45PM	DOW	28804									Success
10:41:10PM	NASDAQ	8930.37									Success
10:49:00PM	JAPAN	23512									‘cess

 

8/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7574 points. Change of 0.01%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,404,992,564 a change of 14%

7/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7573 points. Change of -0.03%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,741,303,337 a change of 0.44%

6/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7575 points. Change of -0.62%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,720,635,792 a change of 20.67%

3/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7622 points. Change of 0.46%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,912,167,844 a change of 21.73%

30/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7587 points. Change of -100%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,213,676,764 a change of 0%

27/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7644 points. Change of 0%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 2,906,900,069 a change of 0%

#FTSE #Nasdaq #Forex Timeframes are not our thing but still, our software is used to map important dates in the future. Thus, we know it’s 67 days ’till the next GP, the dogs are 5.9 & 12.2 years old, wifes birthday is in 152 days, that sort of thing. But knowing when #GBPUSD would precisely hit the 1.35 target given in our last report (link) is curiously absent in the status bar of our program.

This was an ambitious feature created, back in the days when it was naively thought we could get a handle on time. Alas, similar to the current Dr Who, we’re unable to do this. And why does a female Doctor need a posse of assistants spanning social demographics, when a male Doctor only ever needed a single assistant? Is the implication, a female Doctor cannot handle the same workload as her male counterpoint?

Our last diatribe relating to the Pound / Dollar pairing was given with the relationship at 1.292. If was to take just three weeks for the price achieve our 1.35 target, only to fall back to its usual holding pattern within the next few weeks. With 20:20 hindsight, the impetus for the share price jump was the Coronation of Boris but we’re increasingly concerned as to movements in the period since. Essentially, what had felt like strength is now doing a fair impersonation of a Flash in a Pan.

The relationship has certainly flopped around since the UK election, currently residing in a zone where weakness below 1.304 calculates with the potential of reversal to an initial 1.287. While visually, there’s a strong argument for a bounce at such a level, we’d warn if 1.287 breaks, our secondary calculation is at 1.266. Unfortunately, this shall take the pairing firmly into the grasp of a longer term “bottom” at 1.230.

However, one aspect of this period of flailing around is the potential, should the pairing firm up above 1.33 as this should trigger strength to an initial 1.361. And if exceeded, our secondary of 1.40 looks pretty logical.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:24:17PM	BRENT	68.07									‘cess
10:26:07PM	GOLD	1575.08									‘cess
10:28:19PM	FTSE	7563.84	7542	7490.5	7428	7596	7606	7621.5	7648	7560	‘cess
10:30:16PM	FRANCE	6005									‘cess
10:44:31PM	GERMANY	13180.73									‘cess
10:46:37PM	US500	3232.67									Shambles
10:50:03PM	DOW	28539									Shambles
10:53:44PM	NASDAQ	8830	8809	8788.5	8759	8865	8877	8912.5	8981	8834
10:56:26PM	JAPAN	23339									‘cess

 

 

7/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7573 points. Change of -0.03%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,741,303,337 a change of 0.44%

6/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7575 points. Change of -0.62%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,720,635,792 a change of 20.67%

3/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7622 points. Change of 0.46%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,912,167,844 a change of 21.73%

30/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7587 points. Change of -100%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,213,676,764 a change of 0%

27/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7644 points. Change of 0%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 2,906,900,069 a change of 0%

#BRENT #Gold #SP500 Few market signals are more useful than “the drop dead obvious”. Moves such as this become self fulfilling prophecies, simply due to the sheer volume of people watching an indicator, each believing they are the only one being clever. At present, Brent Crude exhibits such a sense of nonsense, thanks to the downtrend since 2008.

This trend line (shown below in BLUE) has been pretty firmly respected over the years and it’d be mad to think the current surge in the price of crude shall not face being derailed by the trend. Presently, this 12 year old line, ageing like a decent malt, needs the price of the black glop to exceed 86 dollars to suggest oil prices are about to go slightly crazy. Of course, the risk of further conflict in the Middle East is always going to be capable of provoking an interesting market. Essentially, above 86 dollars calculates with an initial ambition at 98 with secondary, if exceeded, a longer term 110 dollars. Surprisingly, a ceiling around 110 dollars makes for a very logical picture on the chart.

Alas, this appears unlikely given moves since the start of this year. Now above 71 dollars suggests growth to 74.50 and some hesitation, given prior highs. If exceeded, our secondary calculates at 81 dollars, an ambition unable to break the ruling downtrend anytime soon. Can we be the only folk wondering whether, thanks to 2019’s terrorism attack on a Saudi refinery failing to give a lasting boost to oil, we’re now witnessing another artificial (aside from those directly involved) attempt to ignite prices to new highs.

Of course, perhaps we’re just becoming too cynical. But if Brent somehow manages below 60 dollars anytime soon, it remains with the prospect of a bottom at 39 dollars.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:50:27PM	BRENT	68.34									‘cess
10:52:50PM	GOLD	1566.19	1560	1555	1544	1580	1582	1589.5	1599	1566
10:56:17PM	FTSE	7583.4									‘cess
10:58:47PM	FRANCE	6023.5									‘cess
11:01:55PM	GERMANY	13149									‘cess
11:04:01PM	US500	3242.62	3228	3220.5	3211	3238	3249	3255.25	3262	3238
11:06:44PM	DOW	28667									‘cess
11:11:14PM	NASDAQ	8839.37
11:19:22PM	JAPAN	23330									‘cess

 

 

6/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7575 points. Change of -0.62%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,720,635,792 a change of 20.67%

3/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7622 points. Change of 0.46%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,912,167,844 a change of 21.73%

30/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7587 points. Change of -100%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,213,676,764 a change of 0%

27/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7644 points. Change of 0%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 2,906,900,069 a change of 0%

#Brent #DAX The theory, as always, remains. If GOLD is going up, Index’ will probably go down. Of course, how this plays out against the current backdrop of a potential WW3, an absent UK PM, and the superb drama; “The Masked Singer” on TV leaving an entire nation aghast at the sheer level of effluent they are being force fed. On the plus side, it’s pleasant finding television switched off and books being read. Thus, “The Masked Singer” is deemed excellent.

As for the price of Gold, it’s a bit more interesting as it’s trading at 1,552 at time of writing. There appears to be a real trigger level now at 1,556 dollars. If the metal now manages above this level, further movement to 1,593 looks very possible. But to be realistic, our mid term analysis continues to insist 1,602 as a major point of interest, a level at which some reversal becomes almost essential.

Of course, if the current global posturing gets hot, 1,602 could easily be ignored as a footnote in history in a headline rush uphill to 1634 and some certain stutters. Longer term, 1,831 dollars calculates as a major ambition.

The chart below highlights the early signals of Gold starting to bubble up. We’re pretty far from convinced index’s shall decline in reaction to Golds movements. Quite the converse as there’s a heck of an argument suggesting even the FTSE should continue heading north, challenging (and probably beating) the highs of 2018. The only puzzle is whether we shall see the usual (?) mid January market decline before surprise recovery.

Finally, Happy New Year and our best wishes for a profitable one.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop
9:04:49PM	BRENT	68.49	67.56	67.18	66.45	68.88	69.37	69.79	71.35	67.5
9:06:45PM	GOLD	1552.89								1543
9:31:02PM	FTSE	7594.79								7587
9:33:00PM	FRANCE	6022.7								5993
9:34:39PM	GERMANY	13178.05	13118	13036	12894	13222	13248	13273	13324	13160
9:49:27PM	US500	3234.67								3228
9:51:02PM	DOW	28635								28518
9:52:37PM	NASDAQ	8794.24								8786
10:08:49PM	JAPAN	23300								23260

 

 

3/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7622 points. Change of 0.46%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,912,167,844 a change of 21.73%

30/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7587 points. Change of -0.75%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,213,676,764 a change of 10.55%

27/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7644 points. Change of -100%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 2,906,900,069 a change of 0%

23/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7623 points. Change of 0%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,173,556,993 a change of 0%