Month: November 2019

#Brent #DAX Easily overlooked when thinking about shares, Legal & General actually have an interesting history. We’ve an anecdote from 2009 when commenting it was a worthwhile buy above 80p. A friend, pretending not to listen, immediately rushed away and bought 80 shares! Thankfully it worked out for her and she’s still got them, wishing she’d instead bought 8,000. Or even 800…

She paid 75p per share, making our lives a misery during 2010, each time “her investment” dipped slightly.

For the last few years, the price has alternated between boring and death defying, thanks to that dip the day after the Brexit vote. Quite a curious situation now exists where there appears a chance the price shall attempt a new trading range. Key will be movement above 295p.

(Elaine, if you are reading this, IT IS NOT 295 shares but a trigger above the 295p mark.)

Above 295p should prove capable of growth to an initial 331p. If exceeded, our secondary calculates at a longer term 393p.

Of course, there’s a however, one which feels unlikely.

Now below 230p risks trouble, thanks to the price movement in August 2019 which proved the share price could break the Red uptrend since the market crash. Any further weakness below this “danger sign” level risks reversal to an initial 153p. If broken, secondary calculates at a bottom (ideally) of 118p along with a reasonable bounce.

If anyone is curious, there’s 2 different uptrends shown. One paints the days closing prices (Red), the other measures the Day Lows (Grey). In August, the market dip broke both trend lines, hence our concern.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
1:00:07PM	BRENT	62.42	61.13	60.22	59.25	62.17	61.98	62.765	63.55	61.18	Success
1:17:00PM	GOLD	1459.3									‘cess
1:26:37PM	FTSE	7380.83									Success
1:34:51PM	FRANCE	5901									Sorry
1:36:36PM	GERMANY	13255	13195	13178.5	13137	13267	13279	13302.5	13338	13235
1:38:15PM	US500	3092.17
1:40:00PM	DOW	27675
1:41:38PM	NASDAQ	8251.87
1:43:38PM	JAPAN	23480

8/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7359 points. Change of -0.63%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,798,106,379 a change of -22.57%

7/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7406 points. Change of 0.14%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,196,615,818 a change of 30.74%

6/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7396 points. Change of 0.11%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,739,678,595 a change of -23.11%

5/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7388 points. Change of 0.26%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,164,114,046 a change of 25.79%

4/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7369 points. Change of 0.92%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,900,286,853 a change of -8.27%

1/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7302 points. Change of 0.75%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,342,127,869 a change of -12.99%

31/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7248 points. Change of -1.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,139,753,782 a change of 11.95%

#GOLD #DOW The UK market has spent November limping ever higher, but trailing behind other European and US index’. The slow pace, doubtless, is due to nerves over the Election, Brexit, and what ‘vote greedy’ politicians may say next to enhance their exposure. There are slight signs of an imminent slowdown on the FTSE and we suspect Friday may show some reversal.

At present, the key number on the FTSE is at 7285 points. This is the level the market needs fall below to force us to take reversal seriously. Unless this number is broken, anything soon is liable to be simply part of a trading range. The other key number is at 7440 points.

Above this level, the market betters the highs of July, and enters a cycle where growth to 7494 becomes a near certainty. Secondary calculates at a longer term 7654 points and visually shall challenge the downtrend since the peak achieved in May 2018.

Near term, it looks probable Friday should relax (we’ve a caveat!) and for safety sake, allocating 7384 as a trigger level makes sense. The caveat is quite silly – on far too many occasions recently, when the FTSE illustrates a drop dead argument of direction, the market has toddled off in the opposite direction. To play safe, we’ve opted for a fairly wide trigger level. Below 7384 suggests weakness to an initial 7373 points. If broken, secondary is at 7330 points.

The UK market needs better 7422 before we take any rise seriously as it should permit near term movement up to an initial useless 7429 points. If bettered, secondary calculates at 7439 points – marginally below the Big Picture trigger level of 7440 points.

Have a good weekend.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:18:36PM	BRENT	62.09
10:22:31PM	GOLD	1469.09	1460	1456	1442.22	1476	1492	1502	1516	1479	Success
10:24:10PM	FTSE	7406.91
10:28:40PM	FRANCE	5877.9									Success
10:31:56PM	GERMANY	13284
10:34:51PM	US500	3086.77									‘cess
10:38:21PM	DOW	27715	27580	27474	27354	27758	27780	27899	28343	27406	‘cess
10:41:27PM	NASDAQ	8223.5									Success
10:44:12PM	JAPAN	23555									Success

 

 

7/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7406 points. Change of 0.14%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,196,615,818 a change of 30.74%

6/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7396 points. Change of 0.11%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,739,678,595 a change of -23.11%

5/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7388 points. Change of 0.26%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,164,114,046 a change of 25.79%

4/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7369 points. Change of 0.92%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,900,286,853 a change of -8.27%

1/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7302 points. Change of 0.75%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,342,127,869 a change of -12.99%

31/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7248 points. Change of -1.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,139,753,782 a change of 11.95%

30/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7330 points. Change of 0.33%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,484,235,986 a change of 6.15%

#DAX #SP500 Sometimes, we review an article and wonder just why did we bother? Our last glance at Boohoo, full of logical doom, finished with just 22 words dealing with the upside. Needless to say, the prior 300 word report could be ignored as it successfully triggered and completed an upward cycle.

This time around, we’re again a little pessimistic about Boohoo but, from a big picture perspective, also fairly confident. It begs the question; is a buy opportunity about to present itself? The immediate situation suggests weakness below 257 should lead to an initial 237p. If broken, secondary calculates at 222p and at this point (roughly) life becomes dangerous. There’s a very real risk, if the price shuffles below 222p, of travel down to 150p commencing. While it’s a heck of a drop, historically there’s ample reason to hope for a bounce if such a level makes an appearance.

Our hope is travel to 237p shall be “it” with a rebound to follow from such a level.

The reason for optimism is fairly simple. We’d previously given an upper target of 251p, something the share price has managed to better. As a result, despite expecting the price to reverse to 237p, it’s already viewed as being on a track which leads to an initial 294p with secondary 344p. All we’re attempting to do is plot the potential path!

One thing we need warn about. Any movement by the market which gaps the share price down to 237p shall make the concept of growth difficult to promote. This will create one of our terrifying GaGa Gap Up/Down routines, a movement by the market which normally will suggest proper reversal.

For this reason, we’ve highlighted our bottom number at 150p, this being the calculation if a GaGa does take place.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:53:44PM	BRENT	61.63									‘cess
9:55:38PM	GOLD	1490.41									‘cess
9:59:06PM	FTSE	7403.55									Shambles
10:05:00PM	FRANCE	5862.2									‘cess
10:16:33PM	GERMANY	13183	13100	13057	13006	13175	13209	13293	13374	13100	Success
10:18:37PM	US500	3078.42	3072	3062.5	3054	3087	3087	3093.5	3103	3071	‘cess
10:33:04PM	DOW	27480.1
10:36:24PM	NASDAQ	8205									‘cess
10:37:51PM	JAPAN	23317

 

 

6/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7396 points. Change of 0.11%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,739,678,595 a change of -23.11%

5/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7388 points. Change of 0.26%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,164,114,046 a change of 25.79%

4/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7369 points. Change of 0.92%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,900,286,853 a change of -8.27%

1/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7302 points. Change of 0.75%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,342,127,869 a change of -12.99%

31/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7248 points. Change of -1.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,139,753,782 a change of 11.95%

30/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7330 points. Change of 0.33%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,484,235,986 a change of 6.15%

29/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7306 points. Change of -0.34%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,166,736,018 a change of 9.98%

#BRENT #NASDAQ When we last reviewed Faron, we promoted a scenario for a 25% rise (link). The move successfully happened in May and in the period since, it has more than doubled! Thankfully someone emailed to remind us this was urgently due a Big Picture update.

This one is extremely difficult to map thanks to a bunch of quite separate calculations. When we now refresh our numbers, the share price has quite several distinct formula, all pointing at a high of 276p. The other day, it bettered this level, achieving 277.5p. It has created the situation where we should anticipate price movement now exceeding 258p to provoke yet another surge, this time in the direction of 319p.

Above 319p and things get a bit vague but we can calculate a high of 392p and no further. Unless, of course, if goes higher and in which case, we shall need review the tea leaves again!

The price certainly received an absolute hammering, once it hit the 277 level. Reversing to 150p within the same session really was not fair and now, has created the situation where weakness below 180p threatens reversal to 130p initially. If broken, secondary calculates at 81p. We’re not convinced it is on the edge of doom, instead suspecting whatever drove the amazing rise has seen some sanity enter the conversation.

Regardless, by any standards, we’re fairly optimistic for this lots longer term future and dreading, once again, how to handle things if it indeed approaches the 4 quid level.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:46:29PM	BRENT	62.77	61.86	61.47	60.95	62.78	62.97	63.13	63.59	62.47	‘cess
9:49:39PM	GOLD	1484.27									Success
9:51:27PM	FTSE	7380.55
9:54:06PM	FRANCE	5847.9									Success
9:55:40PM	GERMANY	13149
10:02:42PM	US500	3074.42
10:16:58PM	DOW	27491.5
10:19:23PM	NASDAQ	8206.94	8186	8167	8141	8237	8228	8239.5	8351	8188	‘cess
10:22:36PM	JAPAN	23335									Success

 

5/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7388 points. Change of 0.26%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,164,114,046 a change of 25.79%

4/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7369 points. Change of 0.92%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,900,286,853 a change of -8.27%

1/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7302 points. Change of 0.75%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,342,127,869 a change of -12.99%

31/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7248 points. Change of -1.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,139,753,782 a change of 11.95%

30/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7330 points. Change of 0.33%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,484,235,986 a change of 6.15%

29/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7306 points. Change of -0.34%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,166,736,018 a change of 9.98%

28/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7331 points. Change of 0.1%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,697,887,789 a change of 4.65%

Apparently, if the FTSE now makes it above 7399, it should go to 7420. And if 7420 bettered, good chance the strength will continue!

Now, where’s that box of matches?