FTSE for FRIDAY 29/11/2019

#FTSE #GOLD As the US rendered homage to turkeys while the UK PM paid homage to a chicken, markets experienced a pretty muted day. However, the Dow Jones remains optimistic and closed before Thanksgiving in useful territory for the near future. Hopefully the rally potentials continue.

For the DOW, now above 28,175 calculates with the potential of an initial 28,315 points. If exceeded, our secondary calculation comes out with 28,430 points. But realistically, this need not be the end of the story thanks to 29,125 points now lazing around in the clouds and claiming it’s a longer term attraction.

All kidding aside, in the event 29,125 ever makes an appearance, there’s a pretty good argument favouring a short position as we’d not be shocked to witness a 1,000 point tumble, once sufficient excuse had been invented to panic the markets. While we’re being cynical, somehow or other this sort of thing actually does happen.

As for the FTSE for FRIDAY, despite the index experiencing a lacklustre Thursday (we suspect, due to the US being closed), the FTSE certainly looks capable of some continued growth. We’ve a couple of small alarm bells ringing thanks to the market showing considerable hesitation exceeding 7,450 points but at present, the near term numbers come out as; Movement above 7,420 calculates with an initial useless ambition of 7,436 points. If exceeded, our secondary is at 7,466.

This scenario shall better the 7,450 level and create a new high (since August) on a Friday, generally not the most suitable day for exuberant behaviour.

If trouble is planned, reversal below 7,385 looks capable of an initial 7,350 points. If broken on any initial surge downward, our longer term secondary is at 7,323 points and hopefully a rebound.

Have a good weekend. It’s the final F1 of the season, probably a boring race as everything is already decided!

Hey, chart goes here

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

10:49:32PM

BRENT

63.32

62.52

62.35

   

63.37

63.55

   

10:51:33PM

GOLD

1456.3

1452

1444.5

   

1459

1461

   

10:57:17PM

FTSE

7412.31

7383

7371

   

7420

7432

   

Success

10:59:08PM

FRANCE

5915.7

5898

5887

   

5919

5925

   

Success

11:00:54PM

GERMANY

13255.36

13213

13201

   

13268

13282.5

   

11:02:37PM

US500

3151.32

3141

3137

   

3152

3154.5

   

11:04:33PM

DOW

28118.7

28067

28020

   

28142

28174

   

11:13:18PM

NASDAQ

8442.87

8409

8397

   

8444

8455.5

   

11:14:54PM

JAPAN

23468

23375

23317.5

   

23485

23525

   

 

28/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7416 points. Change of -0.17%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,608,679,537 a change of -31.8%

27/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7429 points. Change of 0.35%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,291,535,835 a change of -43.03%

26/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7403 points. Change of 0.09%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,287,781,943 a change of 67.52%

25/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7396 points. Change of 0.96%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,544,320,565 a change of 6.78%

22/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7326 points. Change of 1.22%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,192,412,665 a change of -5.45%

21/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7238 points. Change of -0.33%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,491,994,018 a change of -12.81%

20/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7262 points. Change of -0.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,298,819,044 a change of 17.12%

Royal Bank of Scotland, 28/11/2019

#DAX #FTSE We’re starting to wonder whether the slight, very slight, optimism present against the retail banks may be due to expectations against next months election result in the UK. If this is indeed the case, Royal Bank of Scotland PLC are carefully sticking their tartan bonnet above the parapet at present.

Hey, chart goes here

The immediate situation is pretty straightforward as moves above 232p look capable of achieving a near term 240p. In itself, a pretty useless movement but greater interest is aroused, if the price somehow betters 240p. A movement like this will be a solid nod in the right direction, calculating with a secondary target of 250p.

In a ‘back to school’ moment, achieving 250p shall prove important taking the price above the last point the downtrend (Blue from 2009) was defined and thus, officially creating a Higher High. Stumbling into such territory risks truly stirring the pot, from a Big Picture perspective. In fact, we’d strongly suggest shelving celebrations until the share actually closes around the 250p point. A miracle like this will tend promise 282p and beyond for the longer term.

Of course, there’s a reasonable chance this optimism could be dashed, if politicians (or voters) do something exquisitely stupid. In the case of RBS, anything capable of driving the price below 210p is liable to have dire consequences, transporting the price back into a region where 174p is yet again calculating as a probable drop location. Secondary, if broken, remains at 150p.

Hey, chart goes here

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

9:44:46PM

BRENT

63.1

               

‘cess

9:47:02PM

GOLD

1454.64

               

9:50:07PM

FTSE

7430.8

7407

7401

7386

7444

7448

7456

7472

7417

‘cess

9:51:49PM

FRANCE

5928.7

               

Shambles

9:54:59PM

GERMANY

13307.72

13217

13202

13120

13267

13316

13324

13368

13262

Success

9:57:51PM

US500

3155.52

               

Success

9:59:41PM

DOW

28179.5

               

10:03:46PM

NASDAQ

8453.24

               

Success

10:06:28PM

JAPAN

23584

               

 

27/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7429 points. Change of 0.35%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,291,535,835 a change of -43.03%

26/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7403 points. Change of 0.09%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,287,781,943 a change of 67.52%

25/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7396 points. Change of 0.96%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,544,320,565 a change of 6.78%

22/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7326 points. Change of 1.22%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,192,412,665 a change of -5.45%

21/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7238 points. Change of -0.33%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,491,994,018 a change of -12.81%

20/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7262 points. Change of -0.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,298,819,044 a change of 17.12%

19/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7323 points. Change of 0.22%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,378,033,826 a change of -0.49%

Trends and Targets for 27/11/2019

BITCOIN (COIN:BTCUSD) Before working on Bitcoin, we’ve some really nerdy FTSE stuff worth reviewing. It appears, finally, calamity may be upon the FTSE. On Sept 27th, the index closed at 7,426 points. On November 7th, the index closed the day at 7,406 points with a day high of 7,431. Today, 26th November, it closed at 7,403 points and the day high was 7,421 points. This series of lower closing prices has created a painfully obvious trend.

We shall examine it in more detail later this week but for now, until the FTSE trades beyond 7,431 points, some caution with short positions is recommended. This pattern of behaviour can often suggest things shall go wrong, very quickly.

Hey, chart goes here

As for Bitcoin, when we last reviewed it (link), a fairly miserable outlook Big Picture for its future was given, one it successfully lived down to. Unfortunately, in the period since, the outlook has continued to weaken and our “secondary” target of 7,220 broken, quite conclusively. This has created a rather unpleasant situation, one where weakness now below 6,500 suggests travel down to 5,923 next. Some considerable hope exists for a bounce at such a level as the implications, if broken, are of reversal to a further 3,233.

This target computation essentially matches the lows at the start of 2019, signalling once again Bitcoins rise has failed. We do have some slight hope for a rebound around the 5,000 dollar mark, simply thanks to some prior twitches at such a level, along with the psychological self fulfilment concept of “it will bounce at the 5k mark”. Frankly, we’re not confident.

As the chart shows, Bitcoin needs recover above Red, simply to regain the prior uptrend. Presently, this level is around the 8,000 dollar mark and feels like a difficult ambition, given the strength of the wider stock markets.

Who knows, maybe 2020 will be the year when Bitcoin can be seen clearly.

It needs to be said, will next year be “The Year of The Optician” in China? Can we have fines for eyesight jokes next year?

Hey, chart goes here

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

10:39:51PM

BRENT

63.22

               

‘cess

10:41:52PM

GOLD

1462.05

               

‘cess

10:44:17PM

FTSE

7405.26

               

‘cess

10:46:01PM

FRANCE

5932.7

5909

5897.5

5883

5929

5941

5951

5965

5917

10:47:23PM

GERMANY

13265.39

               

‘cess

10:48:39PM

US500

3144.62

               

‘cess

10:50:12PM

DOW

28151

               

‘cess

10:51:43PM

NASDAQ

8397.37

               

Success

10:53:54PM

JAPAN

23432

23305

23213

23080

23432

23612

23723

23869

23305

‘cess

 

26/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7403 points. Change of 0.09%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,287,781,943 a change of 67.52%

25/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7396 points. Change of 0.96%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,544,320,565 a change of 6.78%

22/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7326 points. Change of 1.22%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,192,412,665 a change of -5.45%

21/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7238 points. Change of -0.33%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,491,994,018 a change of -12.81%

20/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7262 points. Change of -0.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,298,819,044 a change of 17.12%

19/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7323 points. Change of 0.22%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,378,033,826 a change of -0.49%

18/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7307 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,404,777,192 a change of 7.28%

Virgin Money for 26/11/2019

#Gold #Nasdaq This lot are a little confusing, rebranding themselves from Cydesdale & Yorkshire Bank to Virgin Money. In the process of doing so, their history has been slightly mangled and charts becoming meaningless. However, we’ve been doing some digging and notice some potentials showing.

At present, Virgin are trading around 144p with the result, above 148p should now prove capable of triggering slight recovery toward an initial 152p. This price level is liable to prove critical for the longer term as closure above 151p launches the share into a region where growth to an initial 161p looks extremely possible.

If exceeded, secondary is at 171p though, to be honest, in the event of positive news & market conditions, the share price could easily surge to 194p.

A word of warning, something surprisingly obvious from the immediate chart. If the market intends “park” the price until the UK’s trauma with the holy trinity of the 3 B’s (Brexit, Boris, or Bollocks***) is resolved, it only needs close the share price below 140p. Below 140p and it seems there’s a fair chance of reversal again to 133p. If broken, it should hopefully bottom at 127p.

Hey, chart goes here

***The story of UK Traffic Police detaining a driver due to him having 2 of the three B words emblazoned on his car proved quite telling, also offering the added bonus of a driver dialling 999 in panic, due to harassment from Traffic cops! It seems there was a court case over a Sex Pistols record and the word Bollocks defined as legally acceptable.

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

10:33:22PM

BRENT

62.65

               

10:34:59PM

GOLD

1455.83

1453

1451

1446

1462

1462

1463.5

1467

1455

‘cess

10:37:45PM

FTSE

7399.8

               

Success

10:40:14PM

FRANCE

5934.5

               

10:44:55PM

GERMANY

13262

               

10:47:50PM

US500

3132.77

               

10:50:41PM

DOW

28056.5

               

‘cess

10:52:33PM

NASDAQ

8373.27

8290

8254

8214

8349

8374

8378

8400

8294

Success

10:54:48PM

JAPAN

23425

               

‘cess

25/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7396 points. Change of 0.96%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,544,320,565 a change of 6.78%

22/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7326 points. Change of 1.22%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,192,412,665 a change of -5.45%

21/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7238 points. Change of -0.33%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,491,994,018 a change of -12.81%

20/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7262 points. Change of -0.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,298,819,044 a change of 17.12%

19/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7323 points. Change of 0.22%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,378,033,826 a change of -0.49%

18/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7307 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,404,777,192 a change of 7.28%

15/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7302 points. Change of 0.14%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,038,024,383 a change of -3.76%

Lloyds Bank for 25/11/2019

#Brent #Dax Optimism, a strange word to use, when discussing the UK Retail Bank sector. Rather than use the term “suspend disbelief’, we rather prefer the slightly more arcane term ‘cognitive estrangement’ when asking for acceptance of the looming scenario for Lloyds.

It should probably be pointed out, when a writer employs terminology no-one is quite familiar with, it’s usually because they don’t actually believe the argument about to be presented. Most of the UK doubtless watched, with ‘cognitive estrangement’ the appalling performance of our countries prospective leaders during the 2 hour Question Time on Friday. It took a while for the penny to drop, it was Light Entertainment, just lacking Ant ‘n’ Dec presenting due to their prior engagements anywhere else.

Lloyds Bank has two distinct calculations telling us the price is about to wander up to 63.3p. If exceeded, our secondary calculates at a longer term (or later that day!) 68p. The trigger for such a wonderful movement is supposes to be trades anytime now above 60.7p. It’s very possible the 63.3p ambition shall prove viable, especially due to the presence of the downtrend since 2009.

As for our 68p calculation, this enters the land of politicians, lies, and broken promises. As the chart shows, achieving 68p shall break the downtrend of the last 10 years. Such a movement also achieves a “higher high” than the previous time the share price touched the trend, theoretically allowing a longer term 85p to enter the picture.

We have our doubts, certainly until December 13th at the very earliest.

If Lloyds intends trouble, now below 55p allows for an initial believable 52p. If broken, secondary is at 48p and should prove capable of a rebound, given the presence of the prior low.

Hey, chart goes here

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

9:58:35PM

BRENT

62.81

57.9

52.765

45.38

63

63.8

65.96

69.11

59.15

‘cess

10:01:10PM

GOLD

1462.49

               

10:03:43PM

FTSE

7344.83

               

Success

10:08:07PM

FRANCE

5896

               

Success

2:33:53PM

GERMANY

13200

13034

12951

12808

13182

13247

13355

13795

12788

Success

2:35:40PM

US500

8276.12

               

Shambles

2:45:37PM

DOW

27886

               

3:00:51PM

NASDAQ

8276

               

Shambles

3:02:28PM

JAPAN

23167

               

 

22/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7326 points. Change of 1.22%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,192,412,665 a change of -5.45%

21/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7238 points. Change of -0.33%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,491,994,018 a change of -12.81%

20/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7262 points. Change of -0.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,298,819,044 a change of 17.12%

19/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7323 points. Change of 0.22%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,378,033,826 a change of -0.49%

18/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7307 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,404,777,192 a change of 7.28%

15/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7302 points. Change of 0.14%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,038,024,383 a change of -3.76%

14/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7292 points. Change of -0.8%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,234,690,954 a change of -2.01%

FTSE for FRIDAY 22/11/2019

#Nasdaq #DOW Our weekly review of the #FTSE continues to generate surprising visitor sources. Argentina is now our 3rd most popular feed for reasons which remain unknown, providing more visitors than France, Spain, India, or Canada. The UK & US remain dominant at the top of our Friday listings.

Whether it’s US vs China, the UK’s woes, or whatever, markets are not doing particularly well at present with early signs of the DOW coming “off the boil”. We’re quite far from pressing any sort of panic button but should the US primary index manage below 27,600, it shall be regarded as entering a cycle down to 27,250 points and hopefully some sort of rebound. If broken, our secondary calculates at 26,950, a point where it almost must bounce. The US market requires exceed 27,900 to escape this immediate prophecy of doom. Any reason for the US to find itself below 26,950 will prove pretty alarming, thanks to the risk of a further 1,000 point freefall!

Hey, chart goes here

The FTSE, closing Thursday at 7,231, risks some immediate trouble if it wanders below 7,180 points. Such a trigger risks kickstarting a mantra threatening a visit to 7,164 points initially. If broken, secondary is at 7,083 points and hopefully some sort of real bounce.

To get out of trouble, the UK market requires better 7,294 points as this should prove capable of 7,320 points. If bettered, secondary is at 7,356 along with a strong chance of some hesitation. As always, we’ve a major however…

On Tuesday, the UK market did something we really dislike. Between 10:45 and 2:30pm on the 19th, the market painted a very slow, very deliberate, downtrend. It was almost like some “grown up” had decided ‘This is the new trend and any rise cannot be taken seriously unless the index betters this downtrend!’ As a result, we’re pretty far from confident about any long position scenario.***

At present, this unpleasant stain is at 7,311 points. If past experience proves reliable, the market shall now struggle to exceed this strange Blue line until such point a material change in circumstances emerge. As a result, we  strongly suspect the current reversal cycle intends 7,083 points. We’ve shown the start of this deliberate trend on a chart inset, to try and explain why the main chart has a Blue downtrend simply hanging in the air. This sort of contrived trend generally highlights, quite firmly, a coming period of reversals.

***This movement was on the FTSE. Curiously, FTSE Futures did not display quite as vivid price movements and suggest Futures only require exceed 7265 presently to better this strange trend. We’re inclined to pay more attention to the FTSE itself as it was “real”.

Have a good weekend.

Hey, chart goes here

 

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

10:54:36PM

BRENT

62.89

61.22

61.07

   

63.26

63.43

   

‘cess

10:59:27PM

GOLD

1465

1462

1460

   

1474

1476.5

   

‘cess

11:04:05PM

FTSE

7249.78

7194

7155

   

7255

7266

   

11:09:39PM

FRANCE

5891

5833

5824.5

   

5897

5903.5

   

‘cess

11:12:09PM

GERMANY

13169.37

13079

13012

   

13180

13193.5

   

‘cess

11:14:39PM

US500

3104.42

3093

3087

   

3115

3118

   

Sorry

11:21:36PM

DOW

27777

27670

27626

   

27902

27971.5

   

11:27:11PM

NASDAQ

8274.5

8240

8221.5

   

8300

8316.5

   

11:30:03PM

JAPAN

23071

22717

22529

   

23155

23285.5

   

Success

 

 

21/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7238 points. Change of -0.33%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,491,994,018 a change of -12.81%

20/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7262 points. Change of -0.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,298,819,044 a change of 17.12%

19/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7323 points. Change of 0.22%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,378,033,826 a change of -0.49%

18/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7307 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,404,777,192 a change of 7.28%

15/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7302 points. Change of 0.14%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,038,024,383 a change of -3.76%

14/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7292 points. Change of -0.8%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,234,690,954 a change of -2.01%

13/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7351 points. Change of -0.19%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,342,219,099 a change of -6.91%

Barclays for 21/11/2019

#DOW #CAC40 Once a month we review the retail banks, once a month we report sod all is really happening (link). It’s like trying to find something new to write about Brexit, a subject already flogged to death but like all good masochists, we shall try once again to make sense of Barclays and the future.

The immediate problem we face with this has been a lack of proper recovery. Our last review speculated on movement from 154 to 161 to 177p and the best the share achieved was just below 174p where it fizzled like a cheap firework. While we can now report movement above 174p should bring a confident looking 179p, the longer term secondary calculation of 187 looks considerably less likely. In fact, it becomes easy to calculate a distant 204 as viable, if any of this scenario comes to fruition.

Of course, there’s an additional problem. The ruling downtrend (Blue) is presently at 177.173p and the market has carefully respected this line since July 2015. This level of homage tends make is suspect the share price shall remain trapped until such time the UK’s future appears settled, a subject of considerable doubt at present.

If the markets intention is to keep Barclays “trapped” until a route to the future appears, we shall not be aghast if weakness now below 164 forces reversal to 159 with secondary, when broken, at 154 and hopefully a rebound.

For Barclays to get into serious trouble, the share price now needs break below Red, presently at 136p. Such a calamity looks capable of driving 126p, a short term bounce, then a further trip down to 110p and hopefully a real bounce.

Hey, chart goes here

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

9:39:54PM

BRENT

61.84

               

‘cess

10:27:57PM

GOLD

1472.19

               

‘cess

10:30:03PM

FTSE

7250.68

               

Success

10:32:25PM

FRANCE

5877.2

5857

5848.5

5823

5914

5914

5925.5

5948

5870

‘cess

10:34:16PM

GERMANY

13116.27

               

‘cess

10:41:48PM

US500

3101.62

               

Success

10:43:49PM

DOW

27753

27667

27610

27488

27902

27905

28000

28109

27795

Success

10:45:33PM

NASDAQ

8264.37

               

Success

10:47:27PM

JAPAN

23145

               

‘cess

 

20/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7262 points. Change of -0.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,298,819,044 a change of 17.12%

19/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7323 points. Change of 0.22%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,378,033,826 a change of -0.49%

18/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7307 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,404,777,192 a change of 7.28%

15/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7302 points. Change of 0.14%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,038,024,383 a change of -3.76%

14/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7292 points. Change of -0.8%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,234,690,954 a change of -2.01%

13/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7351 points. Change of -0.19%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,342,219,099 a change of -6.91%

12/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7365 points. Change of 0.5%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,738,598,465 a change of -2.15%