#Gold #SP500 We’ve never experienced movement on the markets quite like those currently. It’s not just a UK Brexit thing, irrational and illogical appears the order of the day throughout Europe and the USA. We’re asked, almost daily, ‘are the markets about to suffer a correction?’. For quite a while, we were confident this was going to be the case but in the last few days, the FTSE managed to stagger above 7384 points. This is supposed to be a key signal of movement into relative safety.
We’re not sold on the prospect of continued growth on
the FTSE and equally, we’re now less convinced things are about to fall apart.
When last reviewing Barclays, we postulated 157p as a target, along with a
return to relative safety. On 13 September, it finally achieved our 157p,
actually with a day high at 157.12p. Before becoming too excited at our target
being bettered, the day high was achieved 14 minutes before the end of day bell.
Worse, the share price rapidly receded as if scalded, spending the next few
weeks just messing around messily. It results in the situation where we’re
nervous. Our target was minimally exceeded and we’re not sold on the prospect of
0.12p being relevant.
The situation now is slightly interesting as above
154.5p is supposed to generate recovery to 161.6p next. If bettered, secondary
calculates at 177p along with very probable hesitation. There is, however,
another factor to consider.
As the chart insert shows, once Barclays hit out 157p,
the price retreated and in the period since, assiduously remains below Blue on
the chart, the ruling downtrend since 2018. This is not a great signal as the
price remains solidly in a zone with 112p exerting attraction. Currently, below
just 144p suggests weakness coming to 136p next. If broken, secondary is at 112p
and “hopefully” a proper bounce.
We’re vague in drawing conclusions, simply because the
markets are not giving a sense of true direction. Things could break upward,
just as easily as the could break downward. An example of how ludicrous things
are came from Gold. Last night we’d given a “slow” drop target at 1464, not
really expecting it anytime soon. At present, Gold is supposed to be a useful
contra indicator for the index’. As folk who follow Gold will note, it broke our
1490 trigger and bounced at 1464 on a day the index’ were mucking around doing
Purple Bricks (LSE:PURP) A colour made fashionable by a dead pop star provides sufficient reason for distrust with Purple Bricks. Prince, with sufficient clout to do his own thing, often proved the axiom, “just because you can, doesn’t mean you should.” Anyone who’s suffered his extended album tracks will know the meaning of self indulgent. His legacy, as far as this writer was concerned, transpired to be distaste for any fad which prefers Purple.
Something has gone terribly wrong with Purple Bricks share price with the
result extreme caution is now required, if it somehow manages CLOSE below 91p.
Unfortunately, this looks likely as weakness now below 110p indicates coming
travel to an initial 78p, almost matching the share price at the initial launch.
From our perspective, this shall prove an extremely dangerous situation as
below 78p and we can calculate an initial 44p with secondary, if (when) broken
at an ultimate bottom of 31p. This ultimate bottom certainly presents a level
where our rules will suggest, rather firmly, the share price will bounce with
some integrity. As to whether it ever attempts its historical highs above 5 quid
in the future looks unlikely, unless some miracle occurs.
At present, Purple Bricks requires exceed 137 just to exceed the immediate
downtrend and enter a cycle where our initial calculation suggests 148p with
secondary, if bettered, a donk against 186p and the historical uptrend.
We’re not impressed with the ones performance but if the share indeed ever
manages visit the 30’s, if should prove worth keeping an eye on.
#DAX #Nasdaq Rarely have we been so glad to welcome the weekend. This week really sucked on the #FTSE, a hysteria of panic uncontrolled movements, strangely reminiscent of our elected MP’s at Westminster. Calling them “leaders” would be akin to describing a housefly as a genius because it can fly. In fact, Westminster appears infested by politicians who can’t do politics! At least a housefly can fly…
In Scotland, we became used to this calibre of MP
for decades until they were swept away by Scotland’s largest party. Sorry if
giving the impression of little respect for the current crop of incompetents.
There’s little doubt the antics of politicians are
again effecting the market, the FTSE proving more irrational than other markets
and generally providing a confused week. Allegedly, the situation now is of
movement above 7395 apparently being capable of triggering growth to an initial
7445 points. If exceeded, secondary calculates at 7485 points.
We have doubts and would recommend a tight stop, if the
scenario triggers. Unfortunately, the tightest available is quite wide presently
at 7333 points!
The reason for this is fairly simple. Below 7351 risks
triggering reversal to an initial 7333 points. Below 7333 and continued weakness
to 7280 calculates as possible, perhaps even 7247 if negatives news manages to
power a grotty Friday. Visually, a down day on the market will make some sense
as despite Thursday achieving a “higher high”, the speed of reversal thereafter
was noteworthy and we’ve a suspicion the UK index intends remain within its
tight September trend, at least until the end of the month.
26/09/2019 FTSE Closed at 7351 points. Change of 0.85%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,536,751,448 a change of 42.18%
25/09/2019 FTSE Closed at 7289 points. Change of -0.03%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,597,482,306 a change of -12.72%
24/09/2019 FTSE Closed at 7291 points. Change of -0.48%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,267,350,098 a change of -41.38%
23/09/2019 FTSE Closed at 7326 points. Change of -0.25%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,986,324,808 a change of -29.08%
20/09/2019 FTSE Closed at 7344 points. Change of -0.16%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 12,670,572,411 a change of 125.4%
19/09/2019 FTSE Closed at 7356 points. Change of 0.57%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,621,323,285 a change of 3.9%
18/09/2019 FTSE Closed at 7314 points. Change of -0.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,410,113,434 a change of -11.15%
SUCCESS above means both FAST & SLOW targets were met. ‘CESS means just the FAST target met and probably the next time it is exceeded, movement to the SLOW target shall commence.
Our commentary is in two sections. Immediately below are today’s updated comments. If our commentary remains valid, the share can be found in the bottom section which has a RED heading. Hopefully, this will mean you no longer need to flip back through previous reports. HYPERLINKS DISABLED IN THIS VERSION
Please remember, all prices are mid-price (halfway between the Buy and Sell). When we refer to a price CLOSING above a specific level, we are viewing the point where we can regard a trend as changing. Otherwise, we are simply speculating on near term trading targets. Our website is www.trendsandtargets.com.
UPDATE. We often give an initial and a secondary price. If the initial is exceeded, we still expect it to fall back but the next time the initial is bettered, the price should continue to the secondary. The converse it true with price drops.
We can be contacted at firstname.lastname@example.org. Spam filters set to maximum so only legit emails get through…
Section One – Outlook Updated Today. Click here for Section Two – Outlook Remains Valid shares
*** End of “Updated Today” comments on shares. Listed below are those where commentary remains valid.
Click Epic to jump to share:LSE:AMER Amerisur** **LSE:AV. Aviva** **LSE:BARC Barclays** **LSE:BBY BALFOUR BEATTY** **LSE:BDEV Barrett Devs** **LSE:BLVN Bowleven** **LSE:BP. BP PLC** **LSE:BT.A British Telecom** **LSE:CAR Carclo** **LSE:CASP Caspian** **LSE:CBUY Cloudbuy** **LSE:CEY Centamin** **LSE:CPI Capita** **LSE:DGE Diageo** **LSE:ECO ECO (Atlantic) O & G** **LSE:EME Empyrean** **LSE:EMG MAN** **LSE:EXPN Experian** **LSE:EZJ EasyJet** **LSE:FGP Firstgroup** **LSE:FOXT Foxtons** **LSE:FRES Fresnillo** **LSE:GENL Genel** **LSE:GKP Gulf Keystone** **LSE:GLEN Glencore Xstra** **LSE:HL. Hargreaves Lansdown** **LSE:HSBA HSBC** **LSE:HUR Hurrican Energy** **LSE:IAG British Airways** **LSE:IGAS Igas Energy** **LSE:IGG IG Group** **LSE:IHG Intercontinental Hotels Group** **LSE:IPF International Personal Finance** **LSE:ITV ITV** **LSE:KAZ Kaz Minerals** **LSE:LLOY Lloyds Grp.** **LSE:LMI LonMin** **LSE:OPG OPG Power Ventures** **LSE:OXIG Oxford Instruments** **LSE:PMO Premier** **LSE:POG Petrop etc** **LSE:POL Polo Resources** **LSE:POLY Polymetal** **LSE:PPC President Energy** **LSE:QFI Quadrise** **LSE:RBD Reabold Resources PLC** **LSE:RBS Royal Bank Scot** **LSE:RED REDT** **LSE:RKH Rockhopper** **LSE:RMG Royal Male** **LSE:RR. Rolls Royce** **LSE:SBRY Sainsbury** **LSE:SCLP Scancell** **LSE:SDY Speedyhire** **LSE:STAN Standard Chartered** **LSE:SUMM Summit** **LSE:TAN Tanfield** **LSE:TAP was Rythm One** **LSE:TCG Thomas Cook Group** **LSE:TLW Tullow** **LSE:TSCO Tesco** **LSE:TW. Taylor Wimpey** **LSE:UKOG UK Oils and Gas** **LSE:VEC Vectura** **LSE:VOD Vodafone** **LSE:VOG VICTORIA** **LSE:WTG Watchstone** **LSE:ZOL Zoldav** **
Many thanks for taking the time to read this and good luck for today. Please feel free to mention us after something goes right!
Risk Warning & Notice to Investors
Buying, selling and investing in shares is not without risk. Market and company movement will affect your performance and you may get back less than you invest. Neither Trends and Targets Ltd, Shareprice, or Interactive Investor will be responsible for any losses that may be incurred as a result of following a trading idea.
#Gold #WallStWith all this Brexit hullabaloo, we’ve a sneaking suspicion the markets anticipate the major supermarkets to do rather well in the event of any supplies crisis. After all, in times of shortage or disruptions, retailers price goods against “worst possible” scenario. Almost accidentally, they will generally do rather well out of a major issue as the need for “Special Offers” or price comparison vanishes.
Already, Sainsbury are poised at the starting gate for
some reasonable share price movement.
Essentially, there looks like a trigger level of 225p
which, if exceeded, allows price growth to an initial 238p. Better still, if
exceeded, this allows ongoing travel toward a secondary calculation of 284p.
Beyond 284p, we shall need re-examine the tea leaves (if we can afford them) as
some quite extraordinary longer term movement becomes possible.
Of course, there’s a fly on the soufflé.
Regular readers will be aware of out historical
hysteria over Gap Up / Gap Down movements on shares. On many occasions, they
proved incredibly reliable indicators for serious trouble ahead and in the case
of Sainsbury, it produced a couple of textbook warning gaps. We’ve circled them
on the chart.
Unless Sainsbury actually makes an effort to close
above 225p anytime soon, it’s trading in a region where below 192p risks
reversal down to an initial 167p. Worse, if broken, our longer term secondary
(and hopefully bottom) calculates down at 138p. We can go lower as ultimate
bottom, the point we cannot calculate below, is at 100p. At present, nothing
threatens such a calamity
#FTSE #Japan Falling faster than Boris Johnston’s credibility, Metro Bank could not be ignored. A Bond Sale, coming in the same year they announce an ‘accounting issue’, failed to attract sufficient buyers and the initiative was cancelled. Their already spectacularly bad share price suffered – spectacularly!
Usually with this sort of thing, when a price
experiences a massive 36% reversal, we look hard to try an identify a logical
bounce point. After all, it’s often quite possible to snag a 15% rebound, even
if any bounce is deemed as to be of the “dead cat” variety. Instead, Metro
presents us with quite a major issue, due to its proximity to the “dead parrot”
side of trading. The companies share price movements, since their fanfare
listing in 2016, proved to be utterly dreadful. At time of writing, it’s trading
around the 175p level with the potential of weakness below this level driving
the price further down to 103p.
At 103p, we would hope for a bounce, potentially a
fairly useful one but the danger comes if 103p is broken on any initial downward
surge. Our secondary is at 76p and this is a level we cannot calculate below.
Obviously, we can but all the answers are prefaced with minus signs.
Before any bounce from current could be taken
seriously, the share almost needs double in value as only above 315p dare we
start to suspect the reversal has been a dreadful mistake and things are going
to be okay for the future. When we review how the price was managed on the 24th
Sept, even above 222p is supposed to bring 238p which, if bettered, gives a very
slight hope bottom is already in. This being the case, our secondary calculates
at an unlikely 338p.
We suspect this shall be worth watching, if it
approaches the 76p level.
#Gold #SP500 In the current market place, there are few shares presenting any real picture of optimism but for some reason, despite the word “sports” in the name, Sports Direct appear on the edge of becoming useful. The trigger level isn’t even that far away!
Above 285p exceeds the very obvious Blue downtrend
since 2015 and appears very capable of launching the share in the direction of
307p next. Visually there’s plenty of reason to anticipate some sort of
hesitation at the 307p, if only due to the share prices historic behaviour
around this level. But in the event it actually closes a session above 307p,
we’re able to calculate the potential of 342p making a future appearance. In
fact, if driven by positive news flow, it could quickly surge to 423p in the
All it needs do is start going up!
For any indication it’s all starting to go wrong, the
share price presently requires slip below 265p as reversal to an initial 240p
seems possible. If broken, secondary calculates down at 203p and hopefully a
bottom is feels capable of rebounding from. Given the companies immediate
efforts to purchase “Goals Soccer” outright very soon, it will be interesting
how the market reacts to any acquisition.
#BRENT #DAX Our July report (link) explained the chances of Glencore hitting 228p. It did but something funny happened. The price did not actually break 228p on the first surge downward. By normal rules, this is a good thing, suggesting we should not be terribly worried at the share pivoting above and below the 228 level in the weeks since.
We’ve been keeping a slightly mad eye on some of the
major shares, looking for early warning signals the market is about to be
trashed by the effect of Brexit. While the retail banks all appear to be
wandering around ringing sad bells to keep the unwary clear, there are pretty
mixed signals amongst many other shares. Some of the major miners (Fresnillo for
instance) adopted a stance of utter defeat some time ago, others like Glencore
are sending slightly different signals. Equally, amongst Oil shares, the
situation is far from clear and overall we’re forced to conclude no-one has a
clue what effect Brexit shall bring.
In-house, we suspect a dip before the actual Brexit day
(whenever that is) followed by strong market recovery with the first piece of
positive news. Our basis for this is fairly straightforward – sometimes things
need a good shakeup.
As for Glencore, since hitting our 228p, the price has
moved in a fairly predictable fashion with the result it need now only trade
above 263p to become useful. Exceeding a trigger such as this should enter a
cycle to an initial 270p with secondary, if bettered, a longer term 304p.
Visually, we’d be quite enthusiastic to witness 304p against this as further
confident growth looks extremely possible.
That’s the end of the good news. We’re basing a lot of
optimism on 228p not breaking on the first downward surge. (It actually hit
227.95p but we’d inclined to believe this a callibration error)
Now below 218p and travel downhill to an initial 204p
looks possible. If broken, secondary calculates at a bottom – hopefully – of