Month: August 2019

#CAC40 #DOW It was amusing, seeing the UK stock market celebrate the resignation of Ruth Davidson (their “leader” in Scotland) with a fairly substantial upward day. Her main claim to fame was eradicating the word “Conservative” from leaflets, replacing it with the silly ‘Ruth Davidsons Party’. Vote share didn’t change, even slightly, and the Conservatives remained languishing in the gutter, out of power in Scotland since 1955. Somehow, the media never mention that detail. Then again, perhaps the UK market rise was influenced by Trump and his stance against China as he once again made a tariff threat, trashed the markets, allegedly rescinded the threat, and markets were happy again.

Or are they?

The FTSE experienced a flamboyant day by any standards but we’re concerned it did not exceed 7,200 points. The high of the day proved to be 7,199 and while market futures hit out initial lunchtime projection pretty exactly, we were not filled with confidence, instead worrying the FTSE was simply going through the motions in sympathy to other world markets. Basically, we would have expected better on the day. We mentioned recently our rule of thumb, where an initial surge exceeding a target gives a pretty solid clue for what’s coming next. While the FTSE matched our target on the initial surge, it failed to better it. Even FTSE futures, normally gifted with excess, only achieved 7200.08 on the initial surge to target.

We’re therefore not bursting with optimism for Friday.

Movement on the FTSE above 7,201 should reach a boring sounding 7,218 points. If exceeded, life becomes more interesting as the secondary calculates at an amazing 7,301 points! Visually, we would expect some hesitation around the 7,237 mark, due to the presence of prior highs recently.

If triggered, the very tightest stop is at 7,163 points but realistically, we’d prefer wider at 7,144 points – or even 7,126 if embracing true paranoia.

What happens if the FTSE breaks below 7,126 points? The next bit requires a stop level at 7,190 points.

Initially, we’re calculating the potential of reversal to an initial 7,089 points. At this point, it gets nasty as any break below this level risks a longer term cycle down to 6,996 points.

Importantly, we’re at the end of a month and things tend finish with a flourish.

It’s the Belgian GP this weekend, welcome relief from the chaos which is apparently the UK.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:33:38PM	BRENT	60.41
10:35:19PM	GOLD	1528.43									Sorry
10:44:19PM	FTSE	7189									Success
10:48:13PM	FRANCE	5448	5396	5386.5	5362	5440	5460	5479	5525	5397	Success
10:49:58PM	GERMANY	11859									Success
10:56:54PM	US500	2923.87									Success
10:59:07PM	DOW	26359	26145	26061.5	25945	26346	26411	26496.5	26659	26240	Success
11:01:23PM	NASDAQ	7702									Success
11:03:29PM	JAPAN	20676									Success

 

 

29/08/2019 FTSE Closed at 7184 points. Change of 0.98%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,926,670,001 a change of -7.06%

#FTSE #Nasdaq Increasingly, we warn of a scenario when a price meets and exceeds our initial target ambition. The reasoning is fairly basic. If a price exceeds an initial target, the secondary becomes exceedingly viable, if not inevitable, eventually. Obviously, spanners are occasionally thrown but it’s a good rule of thumb.

On the day RBS hit our 180p (prior report), it actually broke below and bounced (with a remarkable lack of enthusiasm) from 177p. To us, this was not a comforting sign as it once again suggests RBS intends a bottom at 150p. There is, perhaps, a crumb of comfort showing as the uptrend since 2009 (shown in RED) is presently at 168.798p and there’s little doubt any near term fall to this level will doubtless exhibit some sort of rebound, if only due to the number of folk capable of drawing a straight line.

We fear they shall be wrong; the attraction of 150p has been evident for some time. Worse, if 150p breaks, the absolute “it must bounce here” point calculates at 134p. Please remember, this is a retail (and political) bank and perfectly capable of playing by illogical rules.

Of course, perhaps we are being too gloomy in our thoughts and instead, should search for hope amongst this grim collection of numbers. At present, we shall be watching if the share price exceeds 189p as this is supposed to trigger recovery to 196p. While fairly useless as a price movement, if 196p is exceeded, it ticks the first box for “bottom is in”, giving hope we shall witness stronger movement toward 220p and the land of unicorns, princesses, and golden glitter.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:03:37PM	BRENT	59.89									‘cess
10:13:31PM	GOLD	1540
10:16:15PM	FTSE	7106	7046	7017	6978	7093	7134	7154	7197	7047
10:18:07PM	FRANCE	5368.2
10:20:43PM	GERMANY	11687
10:29:21PM	US500	2883.52
10:37:09PM	DOW	26020.3
10:48:21PM	NASDAQ	7576.25	7535	7488.5	7438	7594	7602	7634	7680	7550	‘cess
10:50:22PM	JAPAN	20500									‘cess

28/08/2019 FTSE Closed at 7114 points. Change of 0.35%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,300,760,718 a change of -31.12%

#GOLD #SP500 When we last reviewed Barclays (link) the share price appeared to be showing signs of escaping a path which led to 134p. Our naive optimism fell apart at the start of August as the price once again indulged in some miserable behaviour! Sometimes, paying attention to the trend is important.

As the cut-outs above show, Barclays share price paid considerable respect to the downtrend, for a week anyway. Then the market ensured the share rejoined the trend and headed down on a path to our 134p ambition, once again. Of course, if there is any real strength, the price should bounce before our target level, ie; now! At present, we calculate the price needs exceed 142p before any rebound dare be taken seriously. Such a movement calculates with an initial target of 145p with secondary, if bettered, at 148.5p. The secondary is critically important as closure beyond this point should make travel to 157p possible, along with relative safety above the historical RED uptrend.

Unfortunately, there is a PURPLE problem showing on the chart. Since 2011, Barclays share price has tended prefer spending time above the Purple line with each bonk against this horizontal trend providing reasonable recovery. During this year, repeated attempts at Purple exhibited weaker recovery and now, the share price has remained below this trend line for most of August. This is not behaviour which will cheer an optimist as it suggests 134p will probably be broken.

This being the case, further reversal down to 112p becomes probable, along with a doubtless short lived bounce. Secondary calculates at a bottom, finally and hopefully, at 78p. Generally we’d suggest advocating a FTSE100 share price almost halving from current as an absurd scenario. We suspect the threat of Brexit is nudging open the door marked profit – for those with any funds to take advantage, if prices drop to silly levels.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:41:42PM	BRENT	59.63
10:59:06PM	GOLD	1543.4	1525	1519.5	1511	1543	1545	1550	1562	1528
11:01:15PM	FTSE	7069.14
11:03:06PM	FRANCE	5364
11:05:29PM	GERMANY	11708									‘cess
11:07:04PM	US500	2869.17	2854	2822.5	2784	2887	2900	2913.5	2947	2860
11:08:58PM	DOW	25794
11:10:41PM	NASDAQ	7563.3
11:13:22PM	JAPAN	20441

27/08/2019 FTSE Closed at 7089 points. Change of -0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,696,037,193 a change of 68.88%

#Brent #DAX Why, in the UK, do many of us spoil holiday weekends with “stuff”. A visit to Ikea, trudging round B&Q, a garden centre trip, and of course, grand-daughters, complete with gold glitter which spilled everywhere. Add temperatures in double figures (it is Scotland after all) and we’re now approaching a look at Lloyds share price with wafer thin humour.

Last time Lloyds was reviewed, we calculated an initial drop target of 51p, something it ‘successfully’ hit with the market opting to gap the share downward quite aggressively. Our secondary, at 46.8p has remained untroubled, the lowest achieved thus far being 48p. In the period since 48p, the rebound has been as enthusiastic as the UK media following up on Epsteins entire British guest list. Blink and you’ll miss it. It’s almost like the media’s forgotten their lesson, after protecting Saville, Smith, Rochdale etc!

The situation remains of weakness below 48p pointing at 46.8p with some real rebound potential. If broken, secondary now looks like 41.5p. Things are liable to become serious, if the share price actually closes a session below 47.5p as there’s a further risk making itself apparent. The Big Picture shall start suggesting 30p is trying to exert a long term influence.

Ultimate bottom, if it all goes completely wrong, calculates at a very visually improbable 5p!

At time of writing, Lloyds is trading around the 50p mark, needing above 51.75p before we dare take any rise seriously as this calculates with the potential of an initial 54p and recovery above the historic uptrend. If exceeded, secondary looks like 59.4p, along with some hesitation.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:29:16PM	BRENT	58.36	58	57.015	55.67	59.62	59.97	60.37	61.25	58.36	Success
10:31:51PM	GOLD	1527.93									Success
10:35:07PM	FTSE	7103.9									Success
10:37:36PM	FRANCE	5361.2									Success
10:40:25PM	GERMANY	11693	11589	11429	11287	11687	11718	11768	11827	11605	Success
10:42:15PM	US500	2882.67									Success
10:45:50PM	DOW	25937									Success
10:57:50PM	NASDAQ	7586.12									Shambles
10:59:49PM	JAPAN	20543									Success

23/08/2019 FTSE Closed at 7094 points. Change of -0.48%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,557,094,463 a change of -9.85%

FTSE for FRIDAY Approaching the final week of a grotty month, the #FTSE currently behaves like a driver in slow traffic with a police car behind. Exquisite caution is being exercised and we feel it’s justified. Too many things are piling up, suggesting some reversal is almost upon us. This, obviously, would be silly for the driver of the car in traffic!

Thursday proved a bit of a puzzle, literally world wide. Many markets (aside from the DOW) experienced upward triggers yet failed to move. Equally, a few hit downward triggers yet failed to move. The DOW, desperate to please, hit an upward trigger, achieving initial target. It later hit a downward trigger, also achieving target. In plain English, it left us painfully aware the market isn’t giving away any immediate direction hints.

For Friday, the FTSE is interesting. Weakness now below 7103 points suggests coming reversal to an initial 7084 points. If broken, secondary calculates at 7010 points and hopefully some sort of near term bounce. If triggered, the tightest stop  looks like 7149 points.

What happens if 7149 is exceeded?

Initially, surprise recovery to an initial 7168 makes some sense. If exceeded, our longer term secondary is at 7189 points.

In both scenario, we’d remind the market is proving cautious and we shall not be aghast if the FTSE mimics everywhere else by only chasing initial targets.

Have a good, dry, weekend.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:13:39PM	BRENT	69.69	59.14	58.925			60.58	60.96
10:15:43PM	GOLD	1498.56	1492	1489			1505	1508.5
10:18:04PM	FTSE	7127.78	7101	7084			7204	7225.5
10:22:57PM	FRANCE	5394.2	5387	5373			5431	5450
10:24:41PM	GERMANY	11749	11707	11674.5			11856	11902			Shambles
10:27:00PM	US500	2920.77	2903	2891			2939	2950
10:40:21PM	DOW	26230	26087	26011.5			26379	26424.5			‘cess
10:44:08PM	NASDAQ	7702.37	7643	7630			7737	7761.5			Shambles
10:45:38PM	JAPAN	20598	20535	20486.5			20696	20753

22/08/2019 FTSE Closed at 7128 points. Change of -1.04%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,055,126,990 a change of 4.34%

#DOW #CAC40 Every time Scotland gets restless, demanding independence from Westminster control, the price of Brent starts to drop. With the (almost) certainty of another referendum next year (The Scots voted nearly 2/3 AGAINST Brexit), we ask how the price of crude is looking. Unsurprisingly, the answer suggests pretty poorly for the longer term.

The immediate issue is at 54.5 as we’d regard this as a trigger for some fairly firm reversals. Below such a level allows weakness down to an initial 45 dollars with secondary, if broken, at a bottom (hopefully) at 39 dollars. If triggered, the stuff requires above Blue, presently 63.5, to cancel the drop potentials anytime soon but realistically, we calculate the product needs above 67.51 dollars to utterly foul the reversal potentials.

We’re being a little satirical with causes for the drop – the plunge to 28 dollars didn’t take place until 15 months after the last Scottish referendum. Unsurprisingly, the writing had been on the wall for a major drop at the very start of 2014, around the time the last independence referendum was announced.

On this occasion, we’re calculating an ultimate bottom potential at 26 dollars, if everything goes horribly wrong for Brent.

In the event a miracle occurs, above 67.5 looks like it should trigger moves to an initial 70.5 dollars. If bettered, secondary is at 75 and a probable hesitation. For now though, we rather suspect we shall see 39 dollars drip into view.

Recent opinion polls are suggesting a majority in favour of an independent Scotland. Amusingly, it also appears both Labour and Conservatives in Scotland are seeking to break away from their masters in London. It’s unclear quite how that will fly when they campaign against independence.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:16:06PM	BRENT	60.1									Success
10:17:50PM	GOLD	1502.6
10:22:08PM	FTSE	7201.57
10:30:52PM	FRANCE	5427.5	5380	5371	5347	5435	5443	5450	5483	5380	Success
10:33:51PM	GERMANY	11809.63									Success
10:36:03PM	US500	2932.02									Success
10:44:08PM	DOW	26262.7	26112	26093	26033	26248	26273	26346	26502	26070	Success
10:45:40PM	NASDAQ	7749.12									Success
10:46:55PM	JAPAN	20711									Success

 

21/08/2019 FTSE Closed at 7203 points. Change of 1.09%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,844,792,764 a change of -0.8%

#Nasdaq #NK200 Batman sprung to mind when working on this one. Actually, not Batman but instead, the depths TV companies go to milk a franchise. We had “Batman”, we had “Gotham” (the Bats early years) and now, digging really deep, they came up with “Pennyworth”, Batmans butler’ early life. Expecting drenched in drivel, it turned out to be a pretty good, violent, non superhero, subversive, alternate England in the ’60’s onwards. Paloma Faith stars, bringing an unrelenting presence, reminding of the infamous Myra Hindley photograph. (okay, someone here binged on 5 hours of telly during last weekend) It is emphatically not for children!

It appears sometimes when you dig deep, you can find a gem!

I’m not so sure about the Mining Sectors prospects but it appears ready to dig deeper than TV producers go. This presents a fairly big issue as we’re already showing The Banking Sector as dangerous, Oil & Gas as dangerous, and now the Mining sector is dangerous. It’s almost as if alarm bells are ringing, warning of imminent stock market reversals as we’re concerned at the plethora of dangers queuing up.

For The Mining Sector, it is presently trading around 17,385 points, below the uptrend since 2016. This results in the expectation of traffic below 17,350 looking capable of reversal down to 17,060 and the probability of a short lived bounce. Our secondary, if such a level breaks on an initial dip, is at 15,618 along with a real bounce, hopefully. Serious danger awaits should the market actually close below this point as severe reversal down to the 12,100 level calculates as very probable. The implication behind this is fairly straightforward. If stalking a Major Miner due to their attractive share price, it shall prove wise to glance at the ruling sector (NMW1770) and check its position. Something which looks like a bargain could easily bury investors fairly quickly.

To consign this scenario to the tailings pile of analysis, the Mining Index needs better 18,220 points as this should make Major Miners attractive again, due to the potentials of a sharp lift to 19,322 and relative safety for the sector.

For now, confidence is lacking.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:34:04PM	BRENT	59.82
10:56:35PM	GOLD	1507.98
10:58:36PM	FTSE	7100.16									‘cess
11:00:35PM	FRANCE	5332									Shambles
11:02:37PM	GERMANY	11608									Shambles
11:05:49PM	US500	2894.77
11:08:53PM	DOW	25911									‘cess
11:18:12PM	NASDAQ	7659	7642	7630.5	7593	7693	7702	7718.5	7744	7659
11:19:52PM	JAPAN	20501	20468	20430	20338	20593	20593	20631	20685	20485

 

20/08/2019 FTSE Closed at 7125 points. Change of -0.89%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,883,785,499 a change of -8.29%