Month: July 2019

SAGA PLC (LSE:SAGA) Our previous review against SAGA had a pretty grim drop target, especially as it was trading around 120 at the time of report. Time, the mortal enemy took hold, Saga indeed withered to our 67p this year. Which is a bit funny, given Saga’s mission is to exploit folk battling the ravages of time.

It’s always easy to treat the old and decrepit, those above 50, with some distain. But our software, developed entirely in-house, was created by someone who’s been dying his hair for 30 years already! In fairness, a family trait ensured he cultivated a badgers white streak from his 20’s.

The scary thing about our 67 “bottom” was not the calculation but rather, the method employed by the market to take the price down. On April 4th, the price of SAGA was manipulated (gapped) from 107p directly to 67p. This was a disaster, the harsh movement tending imply the market wanted the share price below our target level. As time hacked away at the share, it was to eventually reach 31p, a price level we simply cannot understand. When we look at it, about the only thing it represents is one of these moments when you go into a room and immediately forget why you’re there. We cannot emphasise sufficiently, we’ve no idea why 31p appeared. Anything below 67p took the price into a region where we could calculate no lower.

For now, it’s probable the best thing we should do is look for signals SAGA share price is recovering with some integrity. Moves now above 50.1p are supposed to generate recovery to an initial 56.75p. If exceeded, the very first box is ticked to suggest bottom is “in”. Secondary, if bettered, calculates at a longer term 86.75p and takes the price into the region of the April Gap (circled). Generally this can be regarded as a good thing, giving considerable hope for the future.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:41:09PM	BRENT	63.17
10:06:12PM	GOLD	1425.48	1419	1411.785	1398.09	1431	1431	1437	1450.11	1422
10:08:12PM	FTSE	7522.29									‘cess
10:09:37PM	FRANCE	5567.2
10:15:38PM	GERMANY	12314
10:17:19PM	US500	2987.72	2968	2949	2924	2988	2991	2995	3003	2975
10:19:13PM	DOW	27187
10:21:02PM	NASDAQ	7912.99
10:22:45PM	JAPAN	21416

 

22/07/2019 FTSE Closed at 7514 points. Change of 0.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,955,600,068 a change of -12.06%

#Brent #DAX Starting a new week by reviewing our previous reports certainly provides an easy way to clear the mental fog of a lazy weekend. While we tend not review our FTSE for FRIDAY (in case an apology is needed!), Fridays song and dance managed to step on all the wrong notes. Confusing would be an understatement.

The funny thing though, it was not just the FTSE which self immolated. Japan retained some dignity but of course, when the Nikkei opens in the early hours of Monday, it will probably follow the rest of the world in adopting a chaotic stance to market moves.

The problem we experienced, broadly speaking, related to our initial upward targets. Most markets hit and slightly exceeded these targets. But as the day progressed, rather than attempt higher travel, markets instead opted to race downward faster than the media attempting to take the worst possible meaning from anything said by Trump, Corbyn, or Johnstone.

Our suspicion remains of some coming reversals, hopefully nothing severe. And doubtless surprise recovery toward the middle of August.

As for Ethereum (prior report link), the fake coin indeed reached our initial bounce target of 227, even exceeding it slightly and hitting 237. The recovery situation can be refined slightly as movements above 237 should now bring an initial 251 dollars. If exceeded, our secondary is at 271 dollars. If triggered, the market needs below 209 to cancel the rise potentials. Please remember, from a bigger picture stance, we suspect it intends hit 95 dollars eventually!

Cairn Energy hasn’t really done anything interesting yet but near term, any drift below 152p should find a bottom by 143.75p, a point at which we’d hope for a rebound. This potential is enhanced, due to its previous drip to this level back in June.

A G Barr, once pride of Scotland, allowed us to issue a warning (link here) for the future, if the share closed a session below 616p. The share price has now closed below this trigger twice and now just awaits a drip below 600p and it shall doubtless fulfil the next part of our outlook, a trip down to 498p. While we’re fond of our warning, “if it ain’t going down, it’s going up”, only 4 sessions have elapsed since the severe drop. The share requires above 712p just to give a slight hint a further drop is not on the immediate cards.

It remains worth keeping an eye on as we do anticipate a rebound, should 498p make an appearance.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
7:07:58PM	BRENT	62.72	61.68	61.385	60.76	62.71	63.24	64.075	65.07	62.23	‘cess
7:09:27PM	GOLD	1425.57
7:11:39PM	FTSE	7493.51									Shambles
7:24:57PM	FRANCE	5547.7									‘cess
7:27:13PM	GERMANY	12215									‘cess
7:41:38PM	US500	2969	2968	2945.5	2921	3000	3007	3016	3032	2972	Shambles
7:44:43PM	DOW	27103									‘cess
9:04:30PM	NASDAQ	7807.87									Shambles
9:08:57PM	JAPAN	21263									Success

 

19/07/2019 FTSE Closed at 7508 points. Change of 0.2%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,635,394,031 a change of 0.93%

It appears Friday wants to be another down day on the #FTSE. If this happens, it will make the 3rd depressing Friday in a row, almost like the market is bored of leadership nonsense, Brexit nonsense and Trump nonsense too. #DOW #GOLD Of course, it’s probably the annual pre-August slump along with the “holiday” monsoon season in Scotland.

The market has certainly broken though the immediate uptrend, flirting provocatively with the RED uptrend but carefully avoiding regaining the trend. This alone should suggest some sort of slump is ahead. It has resulted in the situation where weakness now below 7482 should expect some reversal in the near term down to an initial 7455 points. If broken, our secondary calculates at 7395 points.

The visuals suggest, quite strongly, if 7395 does make an appearance, some sort of rebound should be expected as the market appeared to find this level fascinating for much of June. It’s pretty hard to express any timeframe for 7395 appearing, thanks to market movements recently tending to be in baby steps. The funny thing tho’, if 7395 were to break for any reason, a further fall to 7175 looks like it should be quite fast, so perhaps Boris is polishing an acceptance speech which proposes England subjugates Calais to streamline customs movements!

If the drop cycle gets underway, the FTSE will need exceed  7535 to cancel immediate drop potentials, giving a relatively tight stop loss against a potential 300+ point droop!

What if 7535 is exceeded?

Apparently we are to expect recovery to an initial 7551 points. If bettered, secondary is a longer term 7602 points.

Have a good weekend.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:48:02PM	BRENT	62.34	61.04	60.73		62.35	62.68	62.975		61.37	Success
10:50:04PM	GOLD	1446.65	1419	1413.5		1429	1448	1456.75		1425	Success
10:52:27PM	FTSE	7507	7478	7433		7521	7521	7536.5		7480	‘cess
10:54:32PM	FRANCE	5556.5	5552	5543.5		5575	5585	5596.5		5555	‘cess
10:56:42PM	GERMANY	12269	12231	12214		12278	12302	12339.5		12215	‘cess
10:58:47PM	US500	3001.11	2980	2974		2998	3002	3012		2979	‘cess
11:02:32PM	DOW	27296	27169	27152		27232	27309	27322		27170	Success
11:04:49PM	NASDAQ	7934	7847	7818.5		7900	7947	7981.5		7880	‘cess
11:07:40PM	JAPAN	21193	21052	20989		21310	21200	21278.5		21050	‘cess

18/07/2019 FTSE Closed at 7493 points. Change of -0.56%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,583,341,954 a change of 1.09%

#Nasdaq #SP500 If we’re sometimes sceptical regarding Bitcoin, our thoughts on Ethereum were magnitudes worse. The good news was the recent Ethereum drop. Last week brought an email from someone going to buy at 260 and we’d strongly advised against. We suspected $200 coming. Todays email; “Ok, you’re a genius ..  200 has been hit!”

It was easy to decide this gave justification for a proper analysis. A Fake Coin following “the rules” tends be a rare event. If this is indeed the case, Ethereum now has a serious problem as it managed trade below the 200 level during the session, hitting 190 twice. When a drop target is broken, despite near term recovery, we get nervous as it will often signal more reversals are coming.

For Ethereum, 211 at time of writing, now below 190 looks capable of 163 initially, doubtless with a short lived bounce. Critically, if 163 breaks, our secondary calculates at a bottom of 95. Visually, this rather neatly matches the lows at the start of 2019 and will doubtless serve as an excellent trampoline level at some point in the future. We now cannot calculate anything below 95 and this further reinforces bounce potentials, IF 95 makes an appearance.

As always, perhaps we’re being hysterical but we often feel an exchange, based on the Daily Pollen Count measured from the roof of the London Stock Exchange, would prove to have greater integrity than trading in Crypto’s. Despite repeated small signals of market attitudes changing, for as long as daily swings in crypto prices tending occur regardless of trade volume levels, we prefer caution.

However, as an olive branch, there is a chance 200 was indeed bottom and the currency will bounce. That being the case, we need the price to exceed 227 (allegedly the immediate target) as this should trigger recovery to an initial 255. If exceeded, secondary is at 280 and a visual challenge against the BLUE downtrend. Only with closure above 280 shall be suspect a true miracle is in progress, thanks to 352 being our first breakout target upward.

In summary, we suspect this intends wind its way to 95. The caveat, and initial integrity test for any rise, comes if 227 bettered.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:57:17PM	BRENT	63.25									‘cess
10:03:44PM	GOLD	1427.15									Success
10:05:49PM	FTSE	7516.32
10:08:10PM	FRANCE	5561.5									Shambles
10:10:12PM	GERMANY	12283									Success
10:12:29PM	US500	2978.15	2976	2974	2959	2998	3009	3014.5	3020	2989	Success
10:14:28PM	DOW	27195.9									Success
10:16:18PM	NASDAQ	7850.87	7846	7816	7762	7928	7942	7969	8010	7886	Success
10:21:43PM	JAPAN	21295									Success

 

17/07/2019 FTSE Closed at 7535 points. Change of -0.55%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,522,999,205 a change of 2.25%

#SP500 #CAC40 We last reviewed A G Barrs a month ago (link), spending the last week feeling smug at the share prices dance on our 860 drop target. It did break our 860 briefly, hitting an alarming 859p in the process. Was this payback for their lack of sugar in Irn Bru?

There are suspicions the “Profit Warning” was due to Scots panic buying proper Irn Bru, prior to the recipe change to something which, frankly, left a bitter aftertaste. It makes one wonder, if no-one thought to review the Coke Cola experience, when Coke changed the recipe? An insipid 2019 compared with a strong 2018 (doubtless due to fanatical Scots stockpiling) should probably have been expected, if indeed the Profit Warning can truly be attributed to a drop in sales of their primary product.

The situation against Barr’s share price now looks rather risky. Utterly key for the following scenario shall be their share price CLOSING a session below 616p. In fact, intraday traffic below 600p is liable to be a reasonable early warning signal. Such a disaster allows ongoing weakness to 498p initially. If broken, secondary is a probable bottom of 347p which rather neatly matches the lows of 2012.

Of course, there’s doubtless a bean counter at Barr’s who’s about to suggest “Classic Irn Bru” might sell, perhaps at a premium price. Invariably, this will probably be the same person who suggested changing the recipe to avoid the UK Govt sugar tax…

A G Barr needs better RED, presently 775p, to suggest this dip has been a dreadful mistake.

For now, we suspect a trip to 498p is on the cards where it shall hopefully rebound.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:26:57PM	BRENT	64.09									Success
10:29:21PM	GOLD	1406.84									‘cess
10:31:54PM	FTSE	7559.02									Success
10:37:32PM	FRANCE	5603.2	5571	5552	5527	5615	5616	5628	5653	5577	‘cess
10:42:07PM	GERMANY	12417.98									‘cess
10:44:43PM	US500	3002.77	3000	2993.5	2985	3014	3017	3022.5	3030	3006	‘cess
10:49:02PM	DOW	27333
10:51:36PM	NASDAQ	7918.37									Shambles
10:53:52PM	JAPAN	21478									Success

16/07/2019 FTSE Closed at 7577 points. Change of 0.61%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,401,478,176 a change of 12.98%

#GOLD #CAC40 Explorer and producer, Cairn PLC @CairnEnergy, have suffered since 2014 from a rather boring share price. As the chart shows, the share price has been fluttering above and below the 2 quid level for 5 years, essentially giving all the hallmarks of “safety”. Even near term, the potentials being highlighted are sane!

Movements now above 180p should embark the price on a climb to an initial 187p. If exceeded, our secondary calculates at 202p. To be blunt, neither ambition is particularly impressive but the important thing shall come if 202p is exceeded for any reason. This would tend imply, quite firmly, a new recovery cycle is hopefully about to commence with movement toward 259 looking very possible.

There is a fly in the ointment, worth mentioning if the company find an excuse to issue negative news. Below 138p would now prove a bad thing, risking reversal to an initial 91p with secondary, if broken, down at 60p,

From our usual perspective, we’d already be resigned to this visiting 91p eventually as two, quite distinct, Big Picture criteria calculate the price already being on a path to 91p. To utterly cancel the prospect, the share requires trade above BLUE on the chart, presently 230p. This is why our paragraph on price recovery above is so important. The share price is already showing some early potential of movements to break its current malaise. All it need do is go up a bit.

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:27:00PM	GOLD	1416.95
9:29:32PM	BRENT	65.87	65.77	65.505	64.85	66.7	67.13	67.4	67.94	66.15	‘cess
9:31:57PM	FTSE	7534									Shambles
9:33:52PM	FRANCE	5581.2	5548	5534.5	5510	5582	5598	5612.5	5634	5563	‘cess
9:39:08PM	GERMANY	12412									‘cess
9:41:13PM	US500	3014.4									‘cess
9:43:23PM	DOW	27353									‘cess
9:45:52PM	NASDAQ	7964									‘cess
9:48:18PM	JAPAN	21610									Shambles

15/07/2019 FTSE Closed at 7531 points. Change of 0.35%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,780,919,626 a change of 2.65%

#BRENT #DAX If only the UK stock market could prove as strong as UK sporting events. Even cricket games, (we’re told) were watchable though personally, a firm line was drawn at tennis. Proper sports really do not involve artificial balls. Formula 1 on the other hand provided a 200 mile race which reminded many folk why they are enthusiasts, despite the Ferrari guy once again trying to push a rival off track!

TERN. When we review last weeks headline shares, Tern (link here) is a complete standout for its boring behaviour. Price movements remained lacklustre with the share price still requiring exceed 13.25p to signal something genuine may be happening. It certainly game close on Friday as the day high of 13.25 was achieved during trading, rather than as an opening second spike. As a result, it should prove worth watching in the days ahead.

Gulf Keystone. GKP, similar to Tern, turned into a tease, following our report on Monday (link here) . All we required was the price to close a session above 234p and it spitefully closed Friday at 233p, the highest point of the week. However, we’re not too dismayed and submit it should prove worth attention fairly soon. We’d suspect some hesitation around the 241p level in any immediate rise.

UK OIL & GAS. UKOG has gotten dangerous and we suspect it intends relax to 0.75p soon. Hopefully sufficient reason is found to create a reasonable rebound at such a level but it needs above 1.125 to give some hope any recovery might be genuine. Until then, it’s trading in a region where realistically we cannot calculate a bottom ambition.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
8:18:08PM	BRENT	66.74	66.26	65.955	65.56	66.91	67.28	67.605	68.06	66.26
8:25:52PM	GOLD	1416.5
8:27:30PM	FTSE	7495.98									‘cess
10:11:49PM	FRANCE	5574.2
10:19:14PM	GERMANY	12322	12301	12274.5	12237	12387	12398	12430	12473	12303
10:21:01PM	US500	3011.27									‘cess
10:23:37PM	DOW	27322									Success
10:25:16PM	NASDAQ	7936.37
10:31:38PM	JAPAN	21587

12/07/2019 FTSE Closed at 7505 points. Change of -0.05%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,657,511,439 a change of -13.4%